Value of: The case for trading Auston Matthews

[KevinRedkey]

Let me first say Matthews is an incredible player, and a top goal scoring talent in the entire NHL. He is not and should not be the first guy that comes to mind when trading away a player in Toronto. That said... I think he should be the guy Toronto moves IF they don't have any playoff success this year. Below are the reasons and rationale.

1 - Luxury
Toronto has some luxuries, and their overall roster is paying for it. Having almost half the cap invested in four forwards has proven to be difficult when it matters, and their lower-end roster has payed the price. This has forced them to shop in the bargain-bin, with little success. Their bottom 6 (Kampf, Spezza, Simmonds, Engvall, Bunting, and Kase) make a combined total of 6.600 which is less than what their 4th highest paid forward makes. Basically, they are just way too top heavy. They need to free up some space in the top 6, to be able to spend more in the bottom 6. This is what I would try to address.

2 - Trade Value
Lets start with Tavares. JT has a full NMC and loves Toronto. Unless the Leafs were tanking (they aren't), there's no way he accepts a trade out of Toronto. Simply put, he's a very capable 1C with a massive and unmovable (NMC) contract.

William Nylander. The problem with trading Nylander is his contract. He only makes just under 7.000 which is very fair given his production and skill level. If Toronto were to trade him to try and improve their bottom 6, they would need 2-3 players coming back, and 6.962 is just not enough to go around. They would end up downgrading from Willy to say... a 5.000 player, and then get another bargain bin guy at 2.000 / it just doesn't make sense of the goal is spreading the wealth. This is similar to Kadri, where they got Barrie and Kerfoot back. They traded the onlyvaluable asset on a fair non-ELC contract at the time, and it kind of didn't work out.

Mitch Marner is often the target of trade talk for the Leafs. He makes too much money and is less important that Matthews. The problem is his trade value compared to Matthews. With Marner, you're likely getting a guy that makes 7.000 -8.000 back (M.Tkachuk for example), leaving ~3.500 to spend elsewhere. That's fair, but the downgrade from Marner to the 'replacement' is significant and is really only a 2-for-1 in the end. It's a little bit like the Nylander case where you're just not getting that much value for the downgrade.

Auston Matthews is the guy they should trade. Why? Because he'd command a king's ransom and fill out the roster while doing so. That, and he only has 3 years left before walking or wanting UFA money. The main requirement coming back would be a good 2C to play behind Tavares. They can get a guy like Couture+++ or W.Karlsson+++ (just examples) which could fill out their entire roster. He could literally fetch 3-5 roster players back in a deal.

3 - Losing players in Cap hell
Toronto is going to let their best defenceman (Reilly) walk because they can't afford him. He's on a bargain contract and will want a hefty raise (3.000+). Any deal that opens up cap space is also a deal that potentially lets Toronto keep their 1D, which is kind of important.

4 - Freedom from Cap Hell
The Leafs have had no cap and no options for years now. Spreading the wealth allows them to make small and medium sized moves, instead of only bargain-bin and blockbusters. They havent been able to tweak anything in years. Trading Matthews for multiple assets allows them to do that moving forward.

TL;DR
He's the only guy they can trade for 3+ legit assets, and he's a UFA in 3yrs. Oh, and they can probably keep Reilly instead of shopping for another bargain-bin player to replace him.

Edit:
If your reply is "trade Marner instead" then you're quite literally missing the point. If you can think of a Marner trade that makes the Leafs a better team, then go ahead and post it. Some of what I'm saying is that trade isn't out there. Prove me wrong if you want it to be Marner so bad. I've made the case for Matthews.

Click to read more...

 

[Tripod]

People said the Leafs depth would suffer having 3 of the top 6 highest cap hits in the league(now top 7).

Certainly the cap not going up has made this an even harder situation to deal with.

The other issue with the Matthews and Marner contracts were term. Only 2 out of the top 20 cap hit contracts are not for 7 or 8 years.....Matthews and Marner. So the Leafs gave them the high money AND caved in term too.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Trade their best player by far so they can give a hefty raise to a defenseman who doesn't defend. Brilliant plan.

 

[NotASheep]

a case could be made for trading any player

 

[KevinRedkey]

Trade their best player by far so they can give a hefty raise to a defenseman who doesn't defend. Brilliant plan.

If that's all you got from this, then I feel bad for you.

 

[Got One Cup]

Nope Marner would my pick. Much easier to draft/sign/trade for a top line winger than a center. Finding someone with that cap space and need is another story.

 

[CreeksideStrangler]

im not for that.

literally anyone else

 

[KevinRedkey]

For those saying trade Marner instead - I addressed why it doesn't make sense. I'd like to hear a realistic trade that actually makes the Leafs better regarding a Marner trade. I have yet to hear one honestly.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

Matthews is the only piece of the core worth keeping along with Nylander to a lesser degree. I do question how much he cares sometimes but the Leafs would move Tavares and Marner first at all costs before him.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I would trade Reilly and Marner, wouldn’t trade Matthews. M. Tkachuk plus cap space would be a better fit on their team.

 

[SI90]

Matthews is their best player. He’s a center. He’s young. They should trade Marner if they can.

Only way you trade Matthews is if you know he doesn’t want to be there and won’t re-sign.

 

[KevinRedkey]

I would trade Reilly and Marner, wouldn’t trade Matthews. M. Tkachuk plus cap space would be a better fit on their team.

Considering I proposed this in the off-season, Reilly would be a UFA and have zero value in a trade.

Marner wouldn't land M.Tkachuk because Calgary already has Gaudreau.

What are the other options?

Matthews is their best player. He’s a center. He’s young. They should trade Marner if they can.

Only way you trade Matthews is if you know he doesn’t want to be there and won’t re-sign.

Didn't I address why they kind of can't?
And If I didn't - for who then?

People keep saying the same thing without any answers. I offer a different perspective and it's generally ignored and answered with the same thing.. trade Marner. I'll ask again - can anyone name a realistic trade (that the other team would accept) involving Marner that actually makes the Leafs a better team?

Colorado wouldn't trade Landeskog for Marner
Calgary wouldnt do Matt Tkachuk because of Gaudreau
Ottawa wouldn't do Brady because of Melnyk
I doubt Carolina does Svechnikov for Marner
Who else would Toronto target exactly?

 

[Cloned]

Considering I proposed this in the off-season, Reilly would be a UFA and have zero value in a trade.

Marner wouldn't land M.Tkachuk because Calgary already has Gaudreau.

What are the other options?



Didn't I address why they kind of can't?
And If I didn't - for who then?

People keep saying the same thing without any answers. I offer a different perspective and it's generally ignored and answered with the same thing.. trade Marner. I'll ask again - can anyone name a realistic trade (that the other team would accept) involving Marner that actually makes the Leafs a better team?

Colorado wouldn't trade Landeskog for Marner
Calgary wouldnt do Matt Tkachuk because of Gaudreau
Ottawa wouldn't do Brady because of Melnyk
I doubt Carolina does Svechnikov for Marner
Who else would Toronto target exactly?

Eichel

 

[Golden_Jet]

Considering I proposed this in the off-season, Reilly would be a UFA and have zero value in a trade.

Marner wouldn't land M.Tkachuk because Calgary already has Gaudreau.

What are the other options?



Didn't I address why they kind of can't?
And If I didn't - for who then?

People keep saying the same thing without any answers. I offer a different perspective and it's generally ignored and answered with the same thing.. trade Marner. I'll ask again - can anyone name a realistic trade (that the other team would accept) involving Marner that actually makes the Leafs a better team?

Colorado wouldn't trade Landeskog for Marner
Calgary wouldnt do Matt Tkachuk because of Gaudreau
Ottawa wouldn't do Brady because of Melnyk
I doubt Carolina does Svechnikov for Marner
Who else would Toronto target exactly?

Waiting until the off season with Rielly is a bad idea, just because you don’t like some answers, doesn’t make them wrong, just opinions.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Why can't Toronto trade Marner for quantity? You dont think there are teams who would give good assets while sending back negligible cap?

The only player who presents prohibitive issues in a trade is Tavares, due to his NMC. I'd trade Marner & Reilly, plus Ritchie if possible and possibly Kerfoot. Trading Matthews is a bad idea unless they are doing a full rebuild.

 

[KevinRedkey]

Eichel

And this makes Toronto better how exactly?

Waiting until the off season with Rielly is a bad idea, just because you don’t like some answers, doesn’t make them wrong, just opinions.

1. You didnt answer the question
2. Never said you were wrong. You said you'd move 2 players without saying when and/or for what. It's was a low effort reply at best. You also ignored the entire premise of the thread in doing so.

 

[ThankGord]

Fair points, I think Matthews would generate way more interest than Marner. I can't think of many teams who would have interest in or be able to pay a winger at 11 million. That said, you have to try to trade Marner first, finding a 1C like Matthews is much more difficult so you have to do what you can to hang on to him.

 

[KevinRedkey]

Why can't Toronto trade Marner for quantity? You dont think there are teams who would give good assets while sending back negligible cap?

The only player who presents prohibitive issues in a trade is Tavares, due to his NMC. I'd trade Marner & Reilly, plus Ritchie if possible and possibly Kerfoot. Trading Matthews is a bad idea unless they are doing a full rebuild.

Ritchie is garbage. Bad contract with negative value
Trading Kerfoot is literally a running joke on HF
Reilly only interests playoff teams who would likely only deal non-roster players back

As for Marner - show me the trade that makes Toronto better. I dont think it exists. That's literally part of the reason I made this thread. lol

Fair points, I think Matthews would generate way more interest than Marner. I can't think of many teams who would have interest in or be able to pay a winger at 11 million. That said, you have to try to trade Marner first, finding a 1C like Matthews is much more difficult so you have to do what you can to hang on to him.

I agree 100% but at the end of the day, something needs to give (If the Leafs fail again).

 

[SML2]

I have been saying this since they signed JT. Everytime I get shouted down.
He unquestionably brings the greatest return.
The experiment doesn't appear to have worked. If they let him get to UFA theres 31 teams working on a way to put him in their jersey.
The absolute Machiavellian move is to put him on the market, the question is when. Any contender couldn't swing it mid season. Too many moves to be made to maneuver the cap. I would give it one more run this year. If the Leafs don't win two rounds minimum, blow it up.

 

[bleedblue94]

Unless you're sure he's resigning you deal him prior to that nmc kicking in the last year of his current deal.

 

[Cloned]

And this makes Toronto better how exactly?



1. You didnt answer the question
2. Never said you were wrong. You said you'd move 2 players without saying when and/or for what. It's was a low effort reply at best. You also ignored the entire premise of the thread in doing so.

Eichel is better than Marner and it would theoretically allow Toronto to load up Matthews-Eichel like Edmonton sometimes loads up McDavid and Draisaitl. If you’re gonna go top heavy you may as well get the best possible players for those cap hits.

 

[sparxx87]

Considering I proposed this in the off-season, Reilly would be a UFA and have zero value in a trade.

Marner wouldn't land M.Tkachuk because Calgary already has Gaudreau.

What are the other options?



Didn't I address why they kind of can't?
And If I didn't - for who then?

People keep saying the same thing without any answers. I offer a different perspective and it's generally ignored and answered with the same thing.. trade Marner. I'll ask again - can anyone name a realistic trade (that the other team would accept) involving Marner that actually makes the Leafs a better team?

Colorado wouldn't trade Landeskog for Marner
Calgary wouldnt do Matt Tkachuk because of Gaudreau
Ottawa wouldn't do Brady because of Melnyk
I doubt Carolina does Svechnikov for Marner
Who else would Toronto target exactly?

The bolded is absolutely correct. His inflated salary devalues him as an asset to the point that other teams, despite the talent, aren’t going to pay a ransom for an $11M winger.

It’s hard to win a Marner trade but really easy to lose.

 

[dukeofjive]

He is not going to get traded, he is going to walk, can you imagine how much money he is going to ask on is next contract?

 

[Drake1588]

From a pure asset management perspective, that's probably right. He holds the most trade value of the four forwards. Yet unless the Leafs are truly circling the drain, they aren't going to prioritize asset management over trying to win with this group. I think he plays out his contract, then either becomes a UFA or will have already signed a massive max extension to stay (probably the latter).

 

[Double Dion]

I wouldn't move Tkachuk straight up for Marner. I'd want an add because of the cap difference. They are similar value players. I'd want a 2nd and 3rd added to Marner.