Post-Game Talk: The Buff Redemption, Jets win 4-3

garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
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Vancouver
www.hockey-graphs.com
I was being Facetious because some where on these boards are people who will die defending that logic without ever watching a game or player

I don't think there are many on here who are tough on Pavs stat sheet who don't watch him and I hope you're facetious there too.

The point to statistics is that they are flawed under short and small sample sizes (as you showed) due to life's natural variance but do paint a nearly complete picture under significant sample sizes as the outliers even out.
 

winterpeg

Sharp Dressed Man
Feb 20, 2013
1,211
0
Winnipeg
Everyone says that and yes I played hockey for a long time and yes I punched out quite a few guys who thought they could hit anyone on my team with impunity.

I often wonder where all you guys played that was so wonderful that you were never afraid of anyone coming after you. Angels on your wings I guess :sarcasm:

Because I didn't play much hockey where one could get away with fighting, and besides I had no interest in fighting guys. In addition, just like every hockey player, I was in flippin' gladiator pads. Never would I ever have to "answer the bell" for a fight cause I made a clean hit. I'd never even dream of it. And if you're gonna jump me and "punch me out" because I don't deem it worth my time to fight? Then you have to "answer the bell" from a whole team.

I don't buy that kind of paranoia when you're padded like an armoured vehicle, and hitting and getting hit is a part of the game. Even if I know a guy is trying to run me. You just keep your head up, don't take a suicide pass, and don't let him follow the numbers into the corner, go in sideways and you're fine. If he wants to jump and hit me in the head, then I'll make him miss like an idiot for jumping.
 

Jet

Chibby!
Jul 20, 2004
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Florida
I don't think there are many on here who are tough on Pavs stat sheet who don't watch him and I hope you're facetious there too.

The point to statistics is that they are flawed under short and small sample sizes (as you showed) due to life's natural variance but do paint a nearly complete picture under significant sample sizes as the outliers even out.

Some people think 1 game = 6000 shot statistical sample. You will never convince them that the science of using advanced stats tells a pretty complete story.

A guy makes a few acrobatic saves and he's messiah. Sure.

At any rate I promised myself I wouldn't get back into this debate because it's like banging your head against a brick wall. What will be will be.
 

Guardian17

Strong & Free
Aug 29, 2010
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I wish Byfuglien would play physical like he did in the seond period more often.

I also wish he would stop playing behind the opposition's goal line with under 2 minutes left and a one goal lead.
 

pondnorth

Registered User
Dec 16, 2005
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Troy Westwood is probably a great guy and he likely has a lot to offer in regards to CFL football coverage... but hearing him talk about hockey is a deal breaker for me - I immediately tune out. Surely 1290 can do better than having this guy cover hockey on air all winter.

1290 might as well just hire some random guy they see yelling "shoot" at the next Jets game because that guy probably has more hockey knowledge to share than does Westwood.
Troy is really a negative guy when it comes to the Jets and seems to enjoy badmouthing many members of the Jets on a regular basic.This morning some other no name dude was running them in to the ground. 5 game win streak and these guys whining like babies.Troy hockey experience is playing floor hockey in his basement with his kids and somehow he gets to s**t on players every day on 1290.Would like to see him say his s**t to Buff`s face.
 

Zhamnov5GoalGame

Former Director of GDT Operations
Jan 14, 2012
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Enjoyed a couple of things from the Caps highlights last night.

1) Eric Fehr missing on a break away that would have tied the game at two. Thanks Winkler!!!:yo:

2) Backstrom left the game and did not return! :handclap:

Like Fehr but he didn't score for us so why should he for them?
Don't like people getting hurt but we need all the help we can get!!!
 

Zhamnov5GoalGame

Former Director of GDT Operations
Jan 14, 2012
6,700
13,528
Winnipeg, MB, Canada
People say this board is negative at times...
Took a quick glance at the Caps PGT to see if there was any Backstrom info... 90% of the posts were that they are not making the playoffs, how awful they are and to fire McPhee!!!

Not sure what anyone can expect. The team rips the league up for over a month and finally loses a game 3 - 1 to the Sens.

Wow.
Hate to see what happens the next time we lose :sarcasm:
 

SensibleGuy

Registered User
Nov 26, 2011
12,369
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you guys need to listen to the big show on a more regular basis. Westwood isn't that negative on the jets at all. In fact he's a huge fan. He often makes reasonably good points. He also likes Buff a lot but thinks he's been playing a little poorly for a while. And since when have radio personalities had to have specific experience in every sport they comment on? I'd imagine Troy's experience in the CFL gives him a lot more cred than most of the guys writing articles for various papers and websites...
 

peg

Registered User
Jul 8, 2010
869
21
Troy is really a negative guy when it comes to the Jets and seems to enjoy badmouthing many members of the Jets on a regular basic.This morning some other no name dude was running them in to the ground. 5 game win streak and these guys whining like babies.Troy hockey experience is playing floor hockey in his basement with his kids and somehow he gets to s**t on players every day on 1290.Would like to see him say his s**t to Buff`s face.

I actually really enjoy Troy. While his background is not hockey, his experience as a pro football player allows him to provide very insightful comments on all sports. There is a certain universality. His comments on Buff this morning were that the very physical play that he displayed in the second period last night are not in his DNA. He said you can't teach attitude. He said it would be as impossible for Buff to become a chippy player as for a guy with a chippy nature to play passively. I don't find Troy overly negative and frankly I enjoy his perspective.

SensibleGuy beat me to it.
 

Joe Hallenback

Moderator
Mar 4, 2005
15,616
22,457
I don't think there are many on here who are tough on Pavs stat sheet who don't watch him and I hope you're facetious there too.

The point to statistics is that they are flawed under short and small sample sizes (as you showed) due to life's natural variance but do paint a nearly complete picture under significant sample sizes as the outliers even out.

I think my point is using numbers for an argument without ever viewing what you are arguing about is not a valid argument.

I wonder how many games was Pavelec a difference maker win or lose for the Jets this year. Do you think teams carry a stat suggesting that they are better off with a particular goalie in net? Or do they go entirely by feel?
 

Grind

Stomacheache AllStar
Jan 25, 2012
6,539
127
Manitoba
i listen to the big show every morning, and i find i don't agree with the logic of troy and jay at all. So what that means is, when they say something i like, i think "sure thats ok", but when they say something i disagree with i find it really irritating, because the logic they used to arrive at the conclusion is....well.. usually non existant.

I like troy for his insight into locker rooms/etc, but absolutely hate when he makes"analysis" on on-ice-action. I do like that he's started dabbling in the advanced stats- it would be really nice to see some local personality grab that and run with it.

But I, I do find both him and Jay way to reactionary. Absolutely everything is colored by the outcome of the game the night before, and they definitely seem to follow the logic that every game is lost because of the jets short comings- never because of the other teams superiority- which is something i hate.

Interestingly enough i find i frequently disagree with the conclusion/opinion of Matt Lible but find it more tolerable as seems to at least present his reasoning in a well articulated and logical process.
 

peg

Registered User
Jul 8, 2010
869
21
On a very weird note, our schedule just became a little tougher.

Buffalo is hosting the Rangers tonight. They were supposed to play in Pittsburgh tomorrow and then go back to host the Jets on Monday night.

With the tragic events in Boston and the current lock down in the City, a Pittsburgh vs. Boston game has been rescheduled which resulted in the rescheduling of the Buffalo vs. Pittsburgh game.

So Buffalo's schedule now has them playing at home to the Rangers tonight followed by a two day break at home before they host the Jets on Monday.
 

SensibleGuy

Registered User
Nov 26, 2011
12,369
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Jay Richardson is the reactionary fan guy
Troy is the "heart" guy
Leibl is the brains.

But mostly, they are just fans talking about sports. I find them on the whole enormously more fun to listen to than the Illegal Curve guys. In fact, I really look forward to the Big Show every morning...especially after a Jets win.
 

Grind

Stomacheache AllStar
Jan 25, 2012
6,539
127
Manitoba
Jay Richardson is the reactionary fan guy
Troy is the "heart" guy
Leibl is the brains.

But mostly, they are just fans talking about sports. I find them on the whole enormously more fun to listen to than the Illegal Curve guys. In fact, I really look forward to the Big Show every morning...especially after a Jets win.

agreed i do find them "fun" to listen to for the most part. Just some of their "analysis" drives me nuts.
 

BuffsEnough

Registered User
Oct 17, 2011
158
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Anyone YT that video of Buffs first big hit along the Canes bench? I LOVE physicality but I feel like I don't see enough of it from the Jets. Would really love to see that.
 

allan5oh

Has prospect fever
Oct 15, 2011
11,311
356
You pretty much nailed it right on the head, he didnt have a coach until he was already strong with a particular skillset, however his time working with Flats here in Winnipeg has had him working a bit more with his lateral movement, as well as working on his weak glove side. You might see him cheat a bit more than before with his glove, he starts to lift his left leg a bit early, but it is showing hes learning, and making changes to his game regularly.

I've noticed that too.

Some of the best goalies of all time have been the unorthodox, athletic, "slightly uncontrolled" style, like Fuhr, Belfour, Hasek, Thomas, etc etc etc.

I knew you were going to bring them up. I don't think Pavelec is quite in their league.

The thing with pavelec is that hes young, he loves the game, and he doesnt take anything too seriously. Its a good thing because he can bounce back easily, hes not easily rattled, and he enjoys playing as much as he possibly can, but it can also be tough when the team, or defense in front of him is having an off night. He has the abilities and the athleticism to be a VERY good goalie, and i think we will continue to see his numbers improve as the team gets better, and as he matures.

I have to agree as well, he was on 1290 today and that's the vibe I got from him. He really seems to enjoy playing in Winnipeg. But you can tell he absolutely hates losing. That one game where he got pulled late in the game, the look on his face was unreal. I have full confidence that he's not letting it get him down, rather using it as motivation to constantly improve his game. That's what elite players do.

Its tough to see all the armchair gms and coaches calling for his head after a bad loss, or saying hes not an nhl caliber starting goalie, but i guess thats the typical arm chair fan who has played next to no competitive hockey in their life. the truth is, he is a starting goalie, hes made play of the year saves, he makes clutch stops, and the team loves him. i couldnt ask for much more in net for the jets.

That's not what I was talking about, and I'm sure you're not putting words into my mouth. My problem is when people rave about Pavelecs incredible saves, meanwhile those saves are due to mistakes.

EDIT: the video posted above of him stopping Faulk, if you notice from the entire replay, the issue wasnt his positioning, he was firmly against his short side post, with the option to push off and come across to his far side to block Faulk, but he didnt once look to see who was beside him. Hainsey and Stuart were both strong side down low, with Ladd pinching down to cover Hainsey being out of position. in normal play, hainsey should have been top side of the crease, and communicating to Pavs where the winger was, while Pavs kept square to the puck on the other side.

Could he have come over to face Faulk faster? most definitely. but the issue in that play was that he didnt even know how close Faulk was, and once the puck made it through the seam, he reached back to cover the net up. very unorthodox, and lucky, but he got there.

Pavs was on 1290 talking about this save, and he said he knew the forward was going to pass to a pinching defenceman because of how long he was holding the puck. He also admits that the save was basically luck, and that's what I thought too because of the look on his face after the save. He knew he was beat, and most of the time that shot would've gone in. I don't think any goalie should expect communication from a winger, or expect them to get every cross seam pass. He should always expect it and be ready to slide over. Pavs wasn't ready. If you watch the replay, he actually moves forward and loses his balance a bit.

Teams try the cross seam pass a lot against us, because it works. Our D doesn't stop the cross seam, and Pavs has weak side movement. Now that he's diving teams will pick up on this (especially playoff teams) and keep it on the ice since he doesn't do the sliding butterfly.
 

Stej

Registered User
Jul 28, 2006
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422
The Kirk
People say this board is negative at times...
Took a quick glance at the Caps PGT to see if there was any Backstrom info... 90% of the posts were that they are not making the playoffs, how awful they are and to fire McPhee!!!

Not sure what anyone can expect. The team rips the league up for over a month and finally loses a game 3 - 1 to the Sens.

Wow.
Hate to see what happens the next time we lose :sarcasm:

I get a kick out of people that get all bent out of shape when people complain after a loss (or even after an ugly win). I've got a tip for those people that will save them a lot of future frustration - GET USED TO IT. This is not unique to Winnipeg fans, in fact it is the same on every single board on HF with enough regular posters to represent the spectrum of opinions. It is just a fact of life.

you guys need to listen to the big show on a more regular basis. Westwood isn't that negative on the jets at all. In fact he's a huge fan. He often makes reasonably good points. He also likes Buff a lot but thinks he's been playing a little poorly for a while. And since when have radio personalities had to have specific experience in every sport they comment on? I'd imagine Troy's experience in the CFL gives him a lot more cred than most of the guys writing articles for various papers and websites...

I like Westwood too. He's not a hockey expert per se, but he does offer great insight into the life of an athlete and the inner workings and dynamics of a locker room.
 
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Mathmew Purrrr Oh

#meowmeowmeowmeow
Apr 18, 2013
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Interestingly enough i find i frequently disagree with the conclusion/opinion of Matt Lible but find it more tolerable as seems to at least present his reasoning in a well articulated and logical process.

I know matty and love discussing sports with him for this very reason.
 

ps241

The Ballad of Ville Bobby
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Mar 10, 2010
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I know matty and love discussing sports with him for this very reason.

What they have done well on the big show is get the chemistry right with the hosts.

Matt is a very smart and articulate guy by radio standards IMHO.......I also learn a fair amount about baseball from him since I have zero interest watching paint dry for 160 games in a season but oddly like baseball for a short window when the leaves turn colour and the games mean something and I need to have someone tell me who is actually good and why.

Mostly it is Matt's wit and humor that get me.....very dry with solid comedic timing and instincts.
 

Mathmew Purrrr Oh

#meowmeowmeowmeow
Apr 18, 2013
5,660
145
meow
What they have done well on the big show is get the chemistry right with the hosts.

Matt is a very smart and articulate guy by radio standards IMHO.......I also learn a fair amount about baseball from him since I have zero interest watching paint dry for 160 games in a season but oddly like baseball for a short window when the leaves turn colour and the games mean something and I need to have someone tell me who is actually good and why.

Mostly it is Matt's wit and humor that get me.....very dry with solid comedic timing and instincts.

lol I ridiculed him preseason for picking the Sox to win AL East

16 games in and...well....my mantra is "It's early"
 

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