Speculation: The Bruins and Jeremy Swayman are far apart in contract term (length) and dollar amount.

[Hazy Little Thing]

If he were to accept the reported $7.8 aav for 8 seasons - that would place him as the 5th highest paid active goalie (not counting Carey Price)…And he’s got a lot of catching up to do regarding games played when compared with his peers.

https://puckpedia.com/players/search

Comparing contracts straight up and not as a percentage of the cap is just silly and lazy.

 

[Score08]

Comparing contracts straight up and not as a percentage of the cap is just silly and lazy.

Then compare games played +hardware

 

[McGarnagle]

Genuine question here, do bruins fans feel like their team kept the wrong goalie or is it too early to tell?

I think asset wise Swayman was the right choice, but I firmly believe that Lewis Gross screwed over the Bruins in revenge for the Krug negotiations breaking down. 90% sure that Swayman's team indicated to Sweeney that they were in the same ballpark for numbers and would be an easy sign, assuring them that they could make the Ullmark trade, and then when they traded Linus, Gross comes back and and jacks up his asking number now that they have the leverage of Boston not having the other #1 goalie.

 

[Hazy Little Thing]

That whole RFA v UFA thing though.

EDIT: Not to mention the starts. It's not a fair comp IMO

The closest comp in recent years from an age, talent, stats, playoff performance, games played perspective is Tuukka Rask. And Boston is offering way less to Swayman than they gave Rask (as a percentage of the cap).

 

[Fogelhund]

Wednesday October 16th, Boston travels to Colorado to play the Avalanche. Lewis Gross client Ross Colton "accidentally" runs over Korpisalo, resulting in an injury. Boston is forced to sign Swayman for his ask, Gross takes Colton out to a nice steak dinner, and gives him a good tip for his troubles.

Just kidding.

 

[TD Charlie]

The closest comp in recent years from an age, talent, stats, playoff performance, games played perspective is Tuukka Rask. And Boston is offering way less to Swayman than they gave Rask (as a percentage of the cap).

And if Swayman paraded the Bruins to the Cup Final last year on the way to a Vezina trophy, like Rask did before signing that deal, then sure. Again, unfair comp

 

[Greek_physique]

And if Swayman paraded the Bruins to the Cup Final last year on the way to a Vezina trophy, like Rask did before signing that deal, then sure. Again, unfair comp

People will still complain because Rask never won us the cup...lol...so Sway can't be put ahead of him.

 

[wintersej]

The closest comp in recent years from an age, talent, stats, playoff performance, games played perspective is Tuukka Rask. And Boston is offering way less to Swayman than they gave Rask (as a percentage of the cap).

There are closer comps at lower length contracts like Saros, Helly, Demko. But they were all shorter term deals with a chance for another payoff. The league was so different back in 2013, it’s hard to reach that far back as a comp. The goalie market has really reset since then.

 

[TD Charlie]

People will still complain because Rask never won us the cup...lol...so Sway can't be put ahead of him.

Oh plenty of people still do complain about Rask. As a contract comp it’s not as simple as “oh they both had about the same stats at that age” or whatever the argument is. One had the Vezina and a near flawless Cup run. The other has one round under his belt

 

[YukonCornelius]

I’d rather have Swayman

I also think they could have handled the last year or two much better. Hindsight, she sure is a bitch

So is Swayman apparently

 

[ON3M4N]

And if Swayman paraded the Bruins to the Cup Final last year on the way to a Vezina trophy, like Rask did before signing that deal, then sure. Again, unfair comp

Rask didn't win the Vezina the year he backstopped the B's to a cup finals. It was the year after that when he won his Vezina. As for the bold.....If the Bruins offensive didn't shit the bed, he probably could have.

Through the first two series:
2013 Bruins - 3.2 G/GP
2024 Bruins - 2.4 G/GP

If you look at the FLA series, the Bruins only scored more than 2 goals one time. With how bad the offense was, Swayman would have had to been nearly perfect to drag that team past Florida.

 

[Greek_physique]

Genuine question here, do bruins fans feel like their team kept the wrong goalie or is it too early to tell?

I still think they made the right move, just horrible they haven't agreed with Sway.

Love Ullmark, but I still worry that he'll get injured every year and new contract would be a bigger risk.

 

[JS19]

Boston probably needs to be ok with signing Swayman to a bridge 3-5 year deal then, if they don't want to go the trade route. No shot Swayman is accepting 8 unless you pay him close to what he wants. By the time the contract is done, he's unlikely to get one more pay day at 33 years old with the cap likely being around 110-120mil by then.

The way this negotiation is looking like to me: Boston wants to fleece UFA years from Swayman at a bargain price (especially if Swayman turns out to be a Vezina contender), while Swayman wants max dollars.

 

[um]

Then compare games played +hardware

Kind of a nitpick but he does have a Jennings.

And to be fair to Swayman, he has been blocked from getting awards and games played since he was part of a tandem with Ullmark.

It's fair to wonder how he would handle a starters workload, but the Bruins chose to use him that way. And come last years playoffs, he handled the starter workload no problem.

 

[TD Charlie]

Rask didn't win the Vezina the year he backstopped the B's to a cup finals. It was the year after that when he won his Vezina. As for the bold.....If the Bruins offensive didn't shit the bed, he probably could have.

Through the first two series:
2013 Bruins - 3.2 G/GP
2024 Bruins - 2.4 G/GP

If you look at the FLA series, the Bruins only scored more than 2 goals one time. With how bad the offense was, Swayman would have had to been nearly perfect to drag that team past Florida.

OK, take away the Vezina. Rask reached the finals. Swayman beat a broken Leafs team (just like literally every Bruins goalie in history). Sidestep it however you want.

Rask was better and more deserving of the cash. It's also an entirely different landscape. The comp doesn't work for me at all.

 

[Bruins4Lifer]

There are closer comps at lower length contracts like Saros, Helly, Demko. But they were all shorter term deals with a chance for another payoff. The league was so different back in 2013, it’s hard to reach that far back as a comp. The goalie market has really reset since then.

Part of, or maybe the main the reason I think is teams just don't start their no. 1 goalie as much any more. 11 years ago it was much more common for the #1 to start ~65 games a year, like Rask did in the first 3-4 years of his deal. Now, it's a lot less common for goalies to start that much-- it's more closer to ~55 starts for the no. 1. The market value for goalies has decreased proportionately to that shift.

 

[NyQuil]

The way this negotiation is looking like to me: Boston wants to fleece UFA years from Swayman at a bargain price (especially if Swayman turns out to be a Vezina contender), while Swayman wants max dollars.

Swayman doesn't exactly have an extensive track record.

Particularly for goalies, if you want the long contract with 150 games of NHL experience, you give up AAV for security.

I do think Swayman is the real deal, but Boston is also protecting themselves against the possibility that he turns into Jack Campbell.

 

[JS19]

Swayman doesn't exactly have an extensive track record.

Particularly for goalies, if you want the long contract with 150 games of NHL experience, you give up AAV for security.

I do think Swayman is the real deal, but Boston is also protecting themselves against the possibility that he turns into Jack Campbell.

The track record thing is true, which is why you're much better off negotiating a bridge deal than go all the way with a 7/8 year deal. If Neely, Sweeney, etc. are so concerned,let him prove to you that he's worth the payout as a true number 1 now, and you get more evidence of how he fares as a number 1, his stats, and how many games he gets you per year.

I don't really see how locking someone up to an 8 year deal protects you if you're concerned that he might not pan out. The opposite can occur where you lock him up at the rate you want, and then he turns into Andrew Raycroft.

 

[sena]

So if Swayman plays way more games and puts up the great Numbers whats he worth in 2 years as a UFA?
I am guessing he can find a hell of a lot more that 8 million. It's not his fault the team only lets him play half the games right now

 

[NyQuil]

I don't really see how locking someone up to an 8 year deal protects you if you're concerned that he might not pan out. The opposite can occur where you lock him up at the rate you want, and then he turns into Andrew Raycroft.

Sure, but you're also not paying him based entirely on what he delivered last season.

Length vs. AAV is the eternal compromise.

He's not going to get Vasilevsky dollars on an 8 year contract even if he played as well as him last season. Not enough experience.

If he plays like a 10 or 11 million dollar goalie over the life of his contract, well, the gamble pays off. If he doesn't, then it didn't.

Boston wants to gamble on the long-term contract because they -do- believe they have a #1 goalie and by locking him up now, they'll save money on the cap later. Savings that could be vital later on.

Swayman's agent knows this and is holding out for more.