Speculation: The Bruins and Jeremy Swayman are far apart in contract term (length) and dollar amount.

[SensFactor]

No they wouldn't. Who is signing up to massively overpay a goalie with a career high 44 starts and only 132 GP?

Anaheim (20M Cap left)?
SJ (10M Cap left)?
Columbus (24M Cap left)?

 

[HockeyVirus]

Anaheim (20M Cap left)?
SJ (10M Cap left)?
Columbus (24M Cap left)?

Again, having cap space and being willing to pay 9-10M for a goalie with 41 starts is different. This is the problem we have with Marner. Lots of places who could use a superstar and have the cap, how many are willing to pay him 13?

 

[SpezDispenser]

Bruins should trade Swayman to Ottawa for Ullmark, and he can become the next John Klingberg after he posts Korpisalo-like stats and wonders where is big pay day went.

That's a no. We're good thanks.

 

[SensFactor]

Again, having cap space and being willing to pay 9-10M for a goalie with 41 starts is different. This is the problem we have with Marner. Lots of places who could use a superstar and have the cap, how many are willing to pay him 13?

Yah 13M is crazy, however, if Boston is not willing to go north of 8M, those teams can definitely offer 10M-11M a year. Statistically, he is still one of the league's best granted with a shorter sample size of work.

 

[seanlinden]

He's basically asking the Bruins to take ALL the risk. He's a good goaltender but in no way does he have the resume to make such demands. I know, I know, that's not how it works and players can do what they want, but he may soon find himself playing for a team with a much worse defensive structure in place and no intention of signing him long term.

Yeah, in any long term deal, the team "takes all the risk"... as the only real risk the player takes, is "could I have gotten more?"

However, the team also gets a lot of the potential reward.

Let's use a theoretical $9m x 8 contract as an example.

Swayman obviously believes himself to be a top 5 goalie in the next year or two. Let's say that works out. If you're Boston, you now have your goaltending solidifed with a guy through his prime, likely carrying no "bad years at the end". He'd be locked up at $9m, in an environment where Shesterkin gets $11m+, and where the cap is eclipsing $100m easily.

There's a potential reward for Boston at $9m x 8. It's not the "optimal" reward for their compeition window which would probably be $6m x 4 or maybe $7m x 5... but there is sitll a reward in it.

The other piece for Swayman to remember... no matter how much negotiating he does, he will not get any form of trade protection for the first 2 years.... if you're signing an 8 year deal, the financials need to be right, because you don't have control over what happens a year from now.

 

[StickShift]

Seems like feelings have gotten involved on both sides. Even if he were to sign an extension now, I think Boston would trade him (like MTL dealt Subban) before his NMC kicks in at UFA age.

 

[Reality Czech]

Think of all the utterly mediocre players at other positions who make around $8 million/year on long term deals: Hertl, Dubois, Caufield, Hronek, Kyrou, Norris, etc. Swayman is far more valuable to the Bruins than any of those players are to their teams. Why should he accept contracts on par with theirs? Just because he's a goalie? Add to that the cap going up and he's well within reason to ask for $10 million.

Kyrou and Caufield are mediocre? You lost your credibility right there. But if some of those players are overpaid I fail to see what that has to do with Swayman. I'm sure you could make a list of guys who are underpaid and I could make the argument, if those guys accepted less why can't Swayman? He sounds like he's got an inflated ego and myself and a lot of fans will be rooting for him to get an ego check whenever he comes back on the ice.

Also, goalies are way less predictable and inconsistent compared to position players. If you can win a Cup with someone like Hill, Kuemper and Binnington then why risk paying a guy like Swayman $10 million?

 

[Fogelhund]

With emotions creeping in, and the airing of dirty laundry, how far away from a trade request are we?

How about Josh Anderson + Montembeault + 2025 1st?

 

[Reality Czech]

They might look for a trade at this point. He would have a great return.

What team is gonna give up multiple good assets for the privilege to pay this guy $9-10 million a year?

 

[BostonBob]

No they wouldn't. Who is signing up to massively overpay a goalie with a career high 44 starts and only 132 GP?

Well you are a Leaf fan so you must be an expert on overpaying.

 

[TheNewEra]

With emotions creeping in, and the airing of dirty laundry, how far away from a trade request are we?

How about Josh Anderson + Montembeault + 2025 1st?

you need to do a better job at hiding the bad part of your offer

 

[eojsmada]

The issue is because Bobrovsky got 10M 5 years ago with a Cap headed north of 100M in the next couple of years. 10% of future cap is not a horrible ask.

The only other comparable is not a comparable because Hellebuyck chose term over $ and he was 30 when he signed his 8 year deal.

Premium market with full leverage for Swayman. 8x8 just isn't a realistic offer from the Bruins. Should have been around 9-9.5 to start and probably winding up at 8x10.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Well you are a Leaf fan so you must be an expert on overpaying.

That's why you should be scared I see this ending badly for the Bruins

 

[seanlinden]

Again, having cap space and being willing to pay 9-10M for a goalie with 41 starts is different. This is the problem we have with Marner. Lots of places who could use a superstar and have the cap, how many are willing to pay him 13?

Honestly, any of those 3 teams it would make a ton of sense to get Swayman.

They're not good this year. They're probably not going to be good next year. Swayman should, at the very least, stabilize their goaltending and give the team some confidence. You might as well overpay Swayman for the next 2-3 years in hopes of it developing into a great deal in year 3, where the cap is $100m+ and he's 28 years old with 5 years left on the deal, and you have a thought of maybe contending.

Even SJ, who only has $10m in cap space left.. it's a bit "artificial" in a sense. Burns $2.7m falls off at the end of this year. Vlasic's $7m has 2 years left. Karlsson's & Jones' combined $3.17m has 3 years left.

Figure that Vanecek or Blackwood would go the other way, and getting Swayman at $9m is a pretty easy pill to swallow.

I might throw Chicago in there as another team where it might make sense.

Cap-wise not neccessarily as obvious a fit, but they've got $3.5m in dead cap coming off at the end of this year, and would presumably send a goalie back to Boston anyways.

 

[Nothingbutglass]

That's why you should be scared I see this ending badly for the Bruins

Marner level bad? What level of fear am I looking at?

 

[TheBeard]

Yeah, in any long term deal, the team "takes all the risk"... as the only real risk the player takes, is "could I have gotten more?"

However, the team also gets a lot of the potential reward.

Let's use a theoretical $9m x 8 contract as an example.

Swayman obviously believes himself to be a top 5 goalie in the next year or two. Let's say that works out. If you're Boston, you now have your goaltending solidifed with a guy through his prime, likely carrying no "bad years at the end". He'd be locked up at $9m, in an environment where Shesterkin gets $11m+, and where the cap is eclipsing $100m easily.

There's a potential reward for Boston at $9m x 8. It's not the "optimal" reward for their compeition window which would probably be $6m x 4 or maybe $7m x 5... but there is sitll a reward in it.

The other piece for Swayman to remember... no matter how much negotiating he does, he will not get any form of trade protection for the first 2 years.... if you're signing an 8 year deal, the financials need to be right, because you don't have control over what happens a year from now.

True, but the rewards for the Bruins of Sway playing better than a 9 mil goalie aren't nearly as beneficial as the risks of Swayman suddenly becoming, say a 3-4 million dollar goalie, which is to say someone who's not a starter. You see it happen way more that goalies don't live up to their contracts than you do goalies that do. Martin Jones, Matt Murray, Lehner, Campbell, Cal Peterson etc. How many actually do live up to their contracts? Vasi?

Frankly, UNLESS you're playing like one of the 3-4 best goalies in the world, there's not a huge difference between beyond that and the 20th. If I'm a GM, I'm absolutely not digging that kind of hole unless I can say with absolutely no uncertainty that that's who they are. I don't think any of us can say that about Swayman yet.

 

[Some Other Flame]

The Bruins going public is a bad bad sign. Not just in terms of getting a deal done but also professionally. Just makes them look inept and petty. They're clearly letting the emotions get to them.

Seems like a classic case of a management group getting greedy thinking they can get a player signed longterm at a discounted rate. If they don't believe in Swayman, then either offer a short term bridge or trade him.

But if Sweeney and co. seriously believe it's all the system, then why on earth trade Ullmark in the first place? Would have made more sense to keep the cheaper goalie and trade RFA for a premium.

The Bruins just look woefully incompetent all round.

 

[Gizmo Tkachuk]

Get those Amazon cameras back out there and record the negotiations dammit

 

[Leafshater67]

Swayman took the Bruins to arbitration.

Blame who you want but I remember hearing he was very upset with them explaining their reasons and the whole thing was messy. They should have tried to get around arbitration then.

Either way, if he doesn’t want an 8x8, he can get f***ed lol. The bruins should have kept Ulmark until a deal was in place.

 

[TheDoldrums]

I can see everyone’s lapping up Neelys comment like seals begging for fish at Sea World. Mission accomplished on his end I guess.

Just saying not all 8x8 are created equal. If there’s no bonuses, lockout protection or trade protection it’s a very different story from a player friendly structure. You are judging everything from one short sentence lacking details.

Also even if it’s an amazing contract from all aspects, arguing through the media like this is still really weird and probably damaged the relationship forever, a process that started in arbitration.

Though not surprising, no sports fans are more eager to view their players as greedy jerks like hockey fans.

 

[Leafshater67]

The issue is because Bobrovsky got 10M 5 years ago with a Cap headed north of 100M in the next couple of years. 10% of future cap is not a horrible ask.

The only other comparable is not a comparable because Hellebuyck chose term over $ and he was 30 when he signed his 8 year deal.

Premium market with full leverage for Swayman. 8x8 just isn't a realistic offer from the Bruins. Should have been around 9-9.5 to start and probably winding up at 8x10.

All those other players were established elite goalies. Swayman is not. Not yet. Period. 7m x 2 year would make sense and carry him to UFA. If he doesn’t want to sign an 8x8, Id let him sit at home too.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Marner level bad? What level of fear am I looking at?

The end of the culture of taking less for one. Also most likely going to either cave to the player or lose a season if he holds out like Nylander did.

 

[Nothingbutglass]

The end of the culture of taking less for one. Also most likely going to either cave to the player or lose a season if he holds out like Nylander did.

Nah. Korpi will be fine and now we have $8 million in space. Think positive. Its not like he is a UFA already making $11 looking for a raise in his walk year.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Nah. Korpi will be fine and now we have $8 million in space. Think positive. Its not like he is a UFA already making $11 looking for a raise in his walk year.

Leafs can let Marner walk because they have Matthews and Nylander. Bruins can let Sway walk because of... Korpi? Bahahaha. I wonder if Sweeney could say that with a straight face to Sway's camp

 

[eojsmada]

All those other players were established elite goalies. Swayman is not. Not yet. Period. 7m x 2 year would make sense and carry him to UFA. If he doesn’t want to sign an 8x8, Id let him sit at home too.

Hard to not ask for top 5 goalie money when he's actually a top 5 goalie by all metrics. So if the absolute bare minimum is 8.5...Boston's being cheap.