Speculation: The Bruins and Jeremy Swayman are far apart in contract term (length) and dollar amount.

[A1LeafNation]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1838570706415559073

 

[Ciao]

Originally put this post in the Swayman trade value link but probably belongs over here.

Good idea. See my last comment, below.

10 mil or + is ridiculous in my mind. I'd give him 8 on a long term contract,( more than he deserves in my mind), less on a short term contract.

That's probably generous, but possibly do-able. The 8x8-ish range might very well be the end result here.

If he doesn't like it , let him sit out.

Yeah, we all feel that way once in a while, but easier said than done. I'm still sore over the most recent Leafs' holdouts with the very same agent, but we get over it. I don't know that missing an entire season over an RFA contract dispute has ever happened.

Don't forget all these ridiculous contracts and increasing caps just get passed on to the fans to pay for it. An average fan can't afford to go to too many or possibly any games and it keeps getting worse.

You're completely off base here. Ticket prices are based on supply and demand, and have nothing at all to do with the cost of player salaries.

Under the current CBA, if player salaries are more or less than 50% of league-wide revenue then they are adjusted up or down to make it 50%. That way, revenue determines the size of the salary pool, not the other way around.

I agree that games are too expensive for the ordinary family to attend, but that's because of high demand for tickets, not because of high player salaries.

The only way to bring down ticket prices is for sales to slump because price depends on consumer demand. The fact that so many people are still willing to pay such exorbitant prices reminds me of the late great Yogi Berra, who was reputed to say "No one goes there anymore because it's too crowded!"

I do remember that as a junior high school student in Windsor Park I could afford to watch Bobby Hull in person play for the Jets from my paper route earnings. Times have sure changed, eh?

I think GM's have to draw the line at some point and these ridiculous contracts will hurt the team overall. Look at the leafs the last 5 years as an example, 4 ridiculous contracts have left little for the rest of the team and it has showed. It only takes a few really bad contracts to severely impact the potential of a team.

Yeah, I quite agree. The Leafs have suffered from a hollowing out of the middle of their roster. I don't follow too many other teams, but I'm sure they're not alone. Too many big stars can mean there's not enough salary-cap room to build a well-rounded team.

Have to admire Yzerman in Detroit, getting most of his stars signed long term around 8 mil.

Big Yzerman fan here, too. He builds for the long-term, which I wish the Leafs had the self-discipline to do as well.

I also think Korpisalo will be a better goalie on the Bruins than Ottawa and Swayman wouldn't be quite as good on a weaker defensive team. Will be interesting to see how Ullmark does with Ottawa this year. Be interesting to see how ready Bussi is as well.

Pat Burns made Felix Potvin look really terrific for a few seasons, when the Leafs had a strong defence and could really clear the puck from their own end.

I loved Ken Dryden, but it's no coincidence that he played behind Larry Robinson, Serge Savard and Guy Lapointe -- who rotated on and off pretty much the whole game -- and forwards like Bob Gainey and Doug Jarvis.

Good defensive teams go hand in hand with good goalies.

Yes , Sweeney screwed up trading Ullmark first and he can concede to Swayman at the expense of the hockey franchise or hold his ground. If there is no middle ground for Swayman , he should let him sit.

Hey, Old-Timer, I was an old Winnipeg Jets' fan too going back to 1970 when I used to watch them play in the WCHL and then the WHA at the Winnipeg Arena before I moved to Southern Ontario ten years later. Kindred spirits here.

You know, that "Enter" key can create paragraphs that parse out your thoughts and make much easier to follow.

I've read through your post and inserted my own comments, above.

Cheers!

 

[wintersej]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1838570706415559073

The intro shows how dumb he is on this topic.

Don't trade Ullmark until you sign Swayman? So they are just sitting here with both goalies and Swayman not signed still? How does that help? You let Ullmark walk as a UFA for nothing so you can be sure that Swayman isn't out until Dec 1st?

Dumb dudes looking for clicks.

Well let me re-phrase. Smart dudes looking for clicks by saying the right content to get clicks.

 

[wintersej]

Lets do some math here.

So Sweeney offers 4x6.

Swayman makes 24 million over 4 years.

He is then 29. Same age that Saros, Hellybuck, etc. Their contracts would be 8x10 if the cap keeps going up 4m a year and we calculate by % of the cap.

So over 12 years, we are talking 104 million.

Or we could go the 8x8 route that Biz and Whitney were discussing.

So that is 64m over 8 years.

At the end of that deal, Swayman will be 32.

Is he getting a 4x10 offer or better at 32 years old to make up the $40m difference?

 

[gstommylee]

Lets do some math here.

So Sweeney offers 4x6.

Swayman makes 24 million over 4 years.

He is then 29. Same age that Saros, Hellybuck, etc. Their contracts would be 8x10 if the cap keeps going up 4m a year and we calculate by % of the cap.

So over 12 years, we are talking 104 million.

Or we could go the 8x8 route that Biz and Whitney were discussing.

So that is 64m over 8 years.

At the end of that deal, Swayman will be 32.

Is he getting a 4x10 offer or better at 32 years old to make up the $40m difference?

why the heck does he deserve 10m...

The intro shows how dumb he is on this topic.

Don't trade Ullmark until you sign Swayman? So they are just sitting here with both goalies and Swayman not signed still? How does that help? You let Ullmark walk as a UFA for nothing so you can be sure that Swayman isn't out until Dec 1st?

Dumb dudes looking for clicks.

Well let me re-phrase. Smart dudes looking for clicks by saying the right content to get clicks.

On top of that make it difficult to sign other players. like you know fill out the rest of the roster.

 

[FlappyGiraffe]

Lets do some math here.

So Sweeney offers 4x6.

Swayman makes 24 million over 4 years.

He is then 29. Same age that Saros, Hellybuck, etc. Their contracts would be 8x10 if the cap keeps going up 4m a year and we calculate by % of the cap.

So over 12 years, we are talking 104 million.

Or we could go the 8x8 route that Biz and Whitney were discussing.

So that is 64m over 8 years.

At the end of that deal, Swayman will be 32.

Is he getting a 4x10 offer or better at 32 years old to make up the $40m difference?

That's assuming he can be a perennial Vezina candidate for 4 straight years - easier said than done

 

[wintersej]

That's assuming he can be a perennial Vezina candidate for 4 straight years - easier said than done

Yeah, the point is that if he wants to bet on himself, 4x6 is actually the better deal to take. And it's less risky for Boston to go that route, even if it means down the road they would be worse off.

Which makes the further point that the Bruins offering 4x6, which is totally in line with the bridges that Saros, Hellybuck, Shesterkin, Demko, etc got, is NOT an insulting offer like they are saying. In the slightest.

 

[Fogelhund]

The number is, and always has been $8.5 mil x 8 years. Just sign the deal and move on.

 

[bert]

The intro shows how dumb he is on this topic.

Don't trade Ullmark until you sign Swayman? So they are just sitting here with both goalies and Swayman not signed still? How does that help? You let Ullmark walk as a UFA for nothing so you can be sure that Swayman isn't out until Dec 1st?

Dumb dudes looking for clicks.

Well let me re-phrase. Smart dudes looking for clicks by saying the right content to get clicks.

Just because you dont like it doesnt mean its dumb. You think he is making all this up haha. Whatever helps you sleep at night.

If the Bruins arent putting 8 X 8 on the table there is only one party to blame and its your favorite team.

If Korpisalo is starting on opening night we might see the biggest crumble of a hockey player ever. This guy cannot handle pressure and the amount of noise and amount of people that will be watching will elevate that level of pressure to heights he has never seen.

 

[Byron Bitz]

The people panicking a month ago were overreacting. Now is the time to panic.

 

[wintersej]

Just because you dont like it doesnt mean its dumb. He's likely forgot more about hockey than you know. You think he is making all this up haha. Whatever helps you sleep at night.

If the Bruins arent putting 8 X 8 on the table there is only one party to blame and its your favorite team.

If Korpisalo is starting on opening night we might see the biggest crumble of a hockey player ever. This guy cannot handle pressure and the amount of noise and amount of people that will be watching will elevate that level of pressure to heights he has never seen.

Every other goalie in his situation the last 10 years has signed a 4-6 year bridge. Demko, Saros, Helly... these aren't BS comps, they are all pretty favorable to Swayman. You making up new sizes of contract based on vibes or whatever is... interesting.

edit: I mean, conversely. Give a comp. Just one. All I ask is one.

 

[bert]

Every other goalie in his situation the last 10 years has signed a 4-6 year bridge. Demko, Saros, Helly... these aren't BS comps, they are all pretty favorable to Swayman. You making up new sizes of contract based on vibes or whatever is... interesting.

edit: I mean, conversely. Give a comp. Just one. All I ask is one.

Sorokin. second contract. 8.25. 8 Million for a goalie as good as Swayman while the cap goes up is a good deal.

 

[Fingertools]

Every other goalie in his situation the last 10 years has signed a 4-6 year bridge. Demko, Saros, Helly... these aren't BS comps, they are all pretty favorable to Swayman. You making up new sizes of contract based on vibes or whatever is... interesting.

edit: I mean, conversely. Give a comp. Just one. All I ask is one.

I'm not sure bridge deals signed 4 years ago are as relevant as one that is signed today - I firmly believe times are changing, GMs are starting to sign their cornerstone young stars earlier and earlier, for longer and longer, taking a risk potentially but banking on their belief that the back half of their contracts and a rising cap will pay off - there have been numerous examples of this (Tampa, Montreal, etc) and there will be more and more - if the Bruins aren't ready to commit that's their choice of course, but anything signed short term will either result in a much higher overall cost down the line, or more likely losing Swayman altogether via FA or a necessary trade in the last year of his bridge.

 

[leafsfan2point0]

It’s going to be 2x6 I think. Or something like that.

 

[Ciao]

I think the logical result is a long-term deal at the current market rate, whatever that is.

$8M X 8 years doesn't sound out of line to me for a goalie of this calibre, but what do I know? Hopefully, they'll work it out, and soon.

There's no percentage in dragging this out.

 

[Nogatco Rd]

I firmly believe times are changing, GMs are starting to sign their cornerstone young stars earlier and earlier, for longer and longer, taking a risk potentially but banking on their belief that the back half of their contracts and a rising cap will pay off - there have been numerous examples of this (Tampa, Montreal, etc) and there will be more and more

It’s not quite an apples to apples comparison IMO. Have any of those GM’s done that with a goalie?

 

[Sota Popinski]

The intro shows how dumb he is on this topic.

Don't trade Ullmark until you sign Swayman? So they are just sitting here with both goalies and Swayman not signed still? How does that help? You let Ullmark walk as a UFA for nothing so you can be sure that Swayman isn't out until Dec 1st?

Dumb dudes looking for clicks.

Well let me re-phrase. Smart dudes looking for clicks by saying the right content to get clicks.

This post shows how dumb you are on this topic. He literally says they could have taken Swayman to arbitration and this would have been settled. If Sweeney chose Swayman without knowing he could get him signed, this was an idiotic move. You chose Swayman as your starter, GET A DEAL DONE.

And they aren't looking for clicks, Sweeney brought them up in a news conference. Do you think anyone else with a podcast as popular as theirs wouldn't respond, when Sweeney literally brought them into it?

 

[gstommylee]

This post shows how dumb you are on this topic. He literally says they could have taken Swayman to arbitration and this would have been settled. If Sweeney chose Swayman without knowing he could get him signed, this was an idiotic move. You chose Swayman as your starter, GET A DEAL DONE.

And they aren't looking for clicks, Sweeney brought them up in a news conference. Do you think anyone else with a podcast as popular as theirs wouldn't respond, when Sweeney literally brought them into it?

and Sweeney could have filed for arbitration himself and yet he DIDN'T.

 

[Ghost of Murph]

Lets do some math here.

So Sweeney offers 4x6.

Swayman makes 24 million over 4 years.

He is then 29. Same age that Saros, Hellybuck, etc. Their contracts would be 8x10 if the cap keeps going up 4m a year and we calculate by % of the cap.

So over 12 years, we are talking 104 million.

Or we could go the 8x8 route that Biz and Whitney were discussing.

So that is 64m over 8 years.

At the end of that deal, Swayman will be 32.

Is he getting a 4x10 offer or better at 32 years old to make up the $40m difference?

Exactly. If I'm Swayman I gamble on myself and try to do a 4 year deal with Boston. I'm not a fan of giving goalies long term deals at big money (too much risk at that position), so if I'm Sweeney I'd rather do a 4-year deal as well. Boston has a knack for always having great goalies due to its defense and a top-tier goalie coach, so even if they don't want to pay Swayman down the road for his final big deal then they will likely still be fine in net. A 4-year deal is win-win.

 

[BostonBob]

Trust me - it's pretty easy being a Bruin fan here in Vancouver. It was a lot tougher growing up just outside Montreal and cheering for the Bruins when your family and friends all cheer for Montreal and hate the Bruins with a passion.

When Bobby Orr played, it was easy to be a Bruins' fan almost anywhere.

Yup - #4 is the reason I became a Bruins fan. My Dad had been trying to get me interested in hockey ( and of course the Montreal Canadiens ) and I was starting to understand the rules and strategy of the game. I remember one Saturday or Sunday afternoon there was an afternoon game on NBC between Boston and ( I think ) Detroit. And even though at this point I still didn't fully understand the game I knew pretty quickly that #4 in black was easily the best player on the ice. So right there and then I became a Bruins fan. Now you have to remember this was long before the Nordiques were around so the Bruins were easily the most hated team by Montreal fans. When I told my Dad that I was now a Bruins fan I think he would have had a better reaction if I told him that I was having relations with our family dog. Yes - there were times growing up near Montreal ( especially during the mid to late 70's when Montreal seemed to beat the Bruins at some point during the Playoffs and then go on to win another Stanley Cup ) that it was tough cheering for my beloved Bruins but I'm still thankful for that fateful day that I saw Bobby Orr effortlessly gliding around the Boston Garden ice.

 

[wintersej]

I'm not sure bridge deals signed 4 years ago are as relevant as one that is signed today - I firmly believe times are changing, GMs are starting to sign their cornerstone young stars earlier and earlier, for longer and longer, taking a risk potentially but banking on their belief that the back half of their contracts and a rising cap will pay off - there have been numerous examples of this (Tampa, Montreal, etc) and there will be more and more - if the Bruins aren't ready to commit that's their choice of course, but anything signed short term will either result in a much higher overall cost down the line, or more likely losing Swayman altogether via FA or a necessary trade in the last year of his bridge.

I both agree and disagree with you.

For position players, 100000%.

For the swingy results of goaltenders? It hasn't happened, yet. And perhaps it shouldn't.

Put it this way these were the top 10 paid goalies last year (Carey Price-less version)

2	Sergei Bobrovsky	Florida Panthers	$10 million
3	Andrei Vasilevskiy	Tampa Bay Lightning	$9.5 million
4	Connor Hellebuyck	Winnipeg Jets	$8.5 million
5	Ilya Sorokin	New York Islanders	$8.25 million
6	John Gibson	Anaheim Ducks	$6.4 million
T-7	Jordan Binnington	St. Louis Blues	$6 million
T-7	Jacob Markstrom	Calgary Flames	$6 million
9	Phillip Grubauer	Seattle Kraken	$5.9 million
10	Igor Shesterkin	New York Rangers	$5.67 million
11	Elvis Merzlikins	Columbus Blue Jackets	$5.4 million

There were 65 goalies that played at least 20 games last year.

Half of the top 10 paid goalies had a below average save %. HALF! Only two of them finished in the top 10 in save %.

If there was a 50% chance that Seth Jarvis or one of these cash in RFAs was going to be a *below average* NHLer year to year... they sure wouldn't be getting 8 million a year.

Now, we can debate if save % is a fair metric. It's a team sport. But, that also is the counter argument. Its a team sport. If a goalie can't control his results, why should he be paid like he can?

A few goalies have proven over time that they can put up the numbers year in and year out. Those guys are worth being paid. Has Swayman proven that? That's the rub.

This post shows how dumb you are on this topic. He literally says they could have taken Swayman to arbitration and this would have been settled. If Sweeney chose Swayman without knowing he could get him signed, this was an idiotic move. You chose Swayman as your starter, GET A DEAL DONE.

And they aren't looking for clicks, Sweeney brought them up in a news conference. Do you think anyone else with a podcast as popular as theirs wouldn't respond, when Sweeney literally brought them into it?

Why would they take him to arbitration and let him elect to walk to UFA? That's f***ing insane.

 

[wintersej]

Sorokin. second contract. 8.25. 8 Million for a goalie as good as Swayman while the cap goes up is a good deal.

Sorokin was 28 with all UFA years being bought and had been a full time starter both at the NHL level and KHL level for several years starting 60+ games and getting 2nd in the Vezina. Try again.

 

[Prairie Habs]

It’s going to be 2x6 I think. Or something like that.

He only has 2 RFA years left, so this walks him right to UFA.

 

[gstommylee]

He only has 2 RFA years left, so this walks him right to UFA.

if he can't show that he can play significant more than half a season, its not going to help when he hits UFA.

 

[Menzinger]

He had arbitration rights last year (and went to arbitration), and this year.

Swayman has also explicitly said he hated the arbitration process

Which is fine, and probably why he's looking for a massive money on an 8 year deal. If the team won't give him that, getting himself to ufa as soon as possible is the best alternative which means a 1-2 year deal.