I grouped them together in my post but 1999 & 2002 feels like two years they should have done much better. 1999 really they should have won the whole thing.
On balance they really should have won at least another Cup.
Let's look back on the eight series the Avalanche lost between 1995 and 2004. There are always multiple reasons a team doesn't advance, but if I had to pick one:
- 1995: goaltending. Fiset started three of the games, and played poorly. Thibault was actually fairly good in his first two starts, but was yanked after giving up three goals in the first period in the decisive game six - including a crushing goal with four seconds left in the frame.
- 1997: Forsberg. He was invisible in the WCF loss to Detroit (1 point in five games, with one game missed) - presumably due to injuries.
- 1998: this was a first-round upset against the Oilers, and Colorado absolutely should have won. (The real reason they lost was Curtis Joseph's brilliance). I'd blame Sakic and Forsberg equally (Colorado had a 3-1 series lead, and they were both scoreless as Edmonton came back to win three straight).
- 1999: if I can look beyond the Big Three, I'll pick Sandis Ozolinsh, who was a train wreck defensively. He took far too many chances against the deep, disciplined Stars.
- 2000: obviously Sakic, who was dealing with a knee injury. The Avalanche still managed to lose by one goal in game 7 against the reigning Stanley Cup champions. Sakic was held to zero goals, three assists. It's not hard to imagine the series going the other direction if he was healthy.
- 2002: most people will point to Roy for the humiliating "Statue of Liberty" loss in game 7. But I'll also call out Sakic, who was scoreless over the final three games.
- 2003: an upset loss in the first round. The whole team looked lethargic. I'd have to pick Roy. I realize it's easy to choose the goalie when the team loses, but he shouldn't have lost three straight one-goal games (two of which went into OT), against an expansion team, after the Avalanche were up 3-1.
- 2004: a lot of people will pick David Aesbischer, but that's really not fair. Sure, he's not Patrick Roy, but aside from the horrendous first game, he was quite good the rest of the way. Forsberg was almost invisible over the final four games (one assist).
Overall I picked Forsberg three times (twice alone), Sakic three times (once alone), Roy twice (once alone), then Ozolinsh and the Fiset/Thibault goaltending duoe once each.
(EDIT - I wonder about the 2003 series. I just looked up the stats and I saw that Colorado's penalty kill was awful. They had a 76% PK rate against a team with a poor powerplay. I don't recall how much of that was on Roy vs the main penalty killers - Foote, Blake, de Vries, and Keane).