News Article: The Athletic's Trade Big Board

[Henkka]

Puljujarvi. Just a thought.

AA + Helm

<>

Puljujärvi + 2nd + Samorukov

 

[TheOtherOne]

So now it’s a good argument to compare Athanasiou’s 284 games to Mantha’s 246? When AA has more total minutes and has still scored fewer goals?

I don’t think that’s the argument you want to make to support AA.

Look again. AA has played 14 fewer total minutes. And Mantha has more than 100 more on the PP.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Look again. AA has played 14 fewer total minutes. And Mantha has more than 100 more on the PP.

Excuse me, I was looking at total shot attempts. I don't know if I am going to excuse Athanasiou for trailing in goals per game and assists per game every single year since Mantha was full time.

 

[TCNorthstars]

AA + Helm

<>

Puljujärvi + 2nd + Samorukov

Cap doesn't work but I like where your head is at.

 

[Winger98]

AA + Helm

<>

Puljujärvi + 2nd + Samorukov

I'd drop Samorukov and Helm.

 

[Henkka]

Cap doesn't work but I like where your head is at.

It will work with retentions and by taking Brandon Manning as cap dump.

 

[Winger98]

Mhm, his house of sand looks real shaky with only 284 career games in which he scored a total of 2 fewer goals (14 more ES goals) than Mantha with an average of 2 minutes less ice time.

You guys want to call him a 23-goal-scorer, fine. I think that's still pretty damn good with his supporting cast.

regardless of the guys around him, if we have someone who can consistently go out and score 20+ goals every year, that's a good player to have as long as you don't have to pay through the teeth for it. And with the year AA is having, I can't imagine there being much leverage for him negotiations.

 

[Winger98]

It will work with retentions and by taking Brandon Manning as cap dump.

or you do it after the season when a bunch of cap drops from everyone.

 

[Bench]

Which makes it all the more ridiculous that a 25-year-old who just did it half a season ago gets written off so easily.

Fun fact: If you could magically double his shooting percentage this season without changing anything else (which would still be just below his career average), he would be on pace for 23 goals. Doesn't seem too bad for such a horrendous slump.

What I'm saying is if you look at the list of guys who regularly repeat 30 goal seasons... AA doesn't really fit into the group. If he did, he'd be among the elite players in the league.

So sure, he can sniff 20 again if you magically change his shooting percentage, but everything about his game and his play is such a step below the guys who routinely manage 30 goals that it's easy for me to bet against him.

 

[Bench]

regardless of the guys around him, if we have someone who can consistently go out and score 20+ goals every year, that's a good player to have as long as you don't have to pay through the teeth for it. And with the year AA is having, I can't imagine there being much leverage for him negotiations.

It's not worth it though if that guy is a defensive liability. There have been a long list of players that are only viable given offensive minutes that spend their career bouncing around bubble teams or worse getting some PP time.

Honestly if the effort isn't there, that kind of contribution isn't worth it. I'd rather prop up a hard-nosed skater like Abdelkader to 20 goal seasons.

 

[deca guard]

It will work with retentions and by taking Brandon Manning as cap dump.

weve many players that could help kennys playoff aspirations this year = glendenny grit n smarts-athanasou wheels with rnh on 2 line-helms wheels-greens shot from the back,paired with larson on 2 , klefbomb n nurse on 1 - and actually burner to replace smith . we retain 50% on all contracts plus take dumps such as manning and maybe russel . we could really improve the oil and it wouldnt be at any cost to their current roster . the tables perfectly set for an redwing n oil trade . glenny n helm on their 4 line grinding would be a big boost . aa with rnh passing another big boost . greens o and burners net work could supercharge the oil . a gigantic 5 player shipment . we also take back smiths contract and im not sure who else . we walk out of there with pick/picks and a prospect/prospects . kenny gets the oil to the western finals vs colorado. we ship russel out at deadline to a contender for a dump plus a pick

 

[SCD]

Only about 30-40 guys a seasons hit 30 goals. It's not exactly easy in that regard.

And when you browse over that list of guys I think you'll see a guy like AA looks more like an outlier than a routine occurrence. Malkin, Ovechkin, and Kane barely crack 30 some seasons. It's not a routine number to hit unless you're a generational talent.

I am not sure I would include Ovechkin in that group. His lowest full season total was 33 (one 32 in 48 gms), otherwise well surpassed 30 goals. He is a generational talent.

 

[TheOtherOne]

Excuse me, I was looking at total shot attempts. I don't know if I am going to excuse Athanasiou for trailing in goals per game and assists per game every single year since Mantha was full time.

Sure, let's change over to "per game" so we can ignore the fact that Mantha played over 2 more minutes more per game for his entire career.

Look, AA and Mantha played the same amount and scored the same amount of goals over their careers. The only significant difference there is that 100 of those minutes were PP for Mantha and SH for AA.

 

[ShelbyZ]

weve many players that could help kennys playoff aspirations this year = and actually burner to replace smith .

If the Oilers have playoff aspirations, I don't see where that helps... Smith's been much better since December ended and only a few months ago he was very good in the playoffs for the Flames. Bernier has 5 playoff starts to his name and they were all awful.

 

[deca guard]

If the Oilers have playoff aspirations, I don't see where that helps... Smith's been much better since December ended and only a few months ago he was very good in the playoffs for the Flames. Bernier has 5 playoff starts to his name and they were all awful.

im no expert on the matter so cant debate it beyond saying that ive read many oil fans ripping smith , though theyre a whiny bunch like here , and am watching burner doing very well recently . so eliminate the burner peice and we can still seriously improve oil

 

[Hen Kolland]

Sure, let's change over to "per game" so we can ignore the fact that Mantha played over 2 more minutes more per game for his entire career.

Look, AA and Mantha played the same amount and scored the same amount of goals over their careers. The only significant difference there is that 100 of those minutes were PP for Mantha and SH for AA.

Oh yes, that is the egregious part. Not that you have to make an argument by doubling a player's production to justify how he is a good player if he weren't slumping. AKA justify how he's a good player even if he's playing like a pretty bad player.

 

[jkutswings]

He gets written off because everything about a rush based offensive player is built on a house of sand. He needs a good outlet pass, he needs coverage for the times he goes down on his break and doesn't score and a rush the other way happens. AA's game is not a consistent one and while you can say "aw, he's just getting unlucky", his entire game is predicated on something where you are kinda at the mercy of luck.

And this seems to be the element that gets overlooked in the conversation.

Assuming Yzerman is making decisions based on wanting to build a roster that contends for championships, then you need players that buy into what it takes to win in the playoffs. Even if AA returns to scoring 25-30 goals for each of the next ten regular seasons, the METHOD for scoring those goals is 180 degrees from what you want to see for playoff success. He would get eaten alive by any decent playoff opponent, and maybe contribute 1-2 goals while still trying to be a 1 man show.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I am not sure I would include Ovechkin in that group. His lowest full season total was 33 (one 32 in 48 gms), otherwise well surpassed 30 goals. He is a generational talent.

So is Malkin and so is Patrick Kane. That was Bench's point. Those guys who are the elite of the elite sometimes have a hard time cracking 30. Ovechkin is different because as scorers go, he's the elite of the elite of the elite. He's the only guy in the modern NHL with even a passing dream of catching Gretzky and even then, he'd need 210 more goals from today.

I'm not on the side of wanting to trade AA because I don't think he has talent. I just think the negatives of him being only remotely engaged defensively and playing an offensive game that lends itself to slumps like what he's expericing if he's the slightest bit injured or disengaged outweigh his positives. He's a good player. But he's a secondary scoring piece. He's not a core guy. If he's a part of your core, you are a very streaky team. They don't have enough in the way of other stabilizing pieces at the moment that I could justify giving him any kind of term and I'd rather move a guy I'm not planning to keep long term NOW and get something for him I would like as opposed to waiting a year and likely getting even less because now he's a pure rental.

Also, I think the higher possibility is that he putters through the remainder of this year AND next year sulking about his role, so you're not going to see the big tick up in numbers you'd like to see if he were "rehabbing his value".

Sure, let's change over to "per game" so we can ignore the fact that Mantha played over 2 more minutes more per game for his entire career.

Look, AA and Mantha played the same amount and scored the same amount of goals over their careers. The only significant difference there is that 100 of those minutes were PP for Mantha and SH for AA.

And AA's CF of 45-ish is about 10% less than Mantha's around 55. So with AA, the other team has the puck more than Detroit. With Mantha, Detroit has the puck more often. If, like you say, they are scoring at equivalent rates or even close to equivalent rates, I prefer the player who results in me maintaining the puck more than the alternative. If I have the puck, you can't score.

I know this'll fall on deaf ears because I'm criticizing AA, but I truly think he's a good player. He has value. I just don't think it's long term value for Detroit. He is not personally a player I would build around because I don't like how his game fits in with the rest of the team and with how a successful NHL roster is built. He's the piece you add at the TDL when you need scoring, not the guy that you focus the team around. Basically, he a less min-maxed version of Michael Grabner. Grabner will score you a bunch of goals and provide no playmaking. AA is a better playmaker, but he fits that mold more than anything else.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

"Matheson noting the Oilers second-round pick, and a defensive prospect could be available is interesting."

2nd + Samorukov?

Not sure that would be enough for me. Especially if they make the playoffs and that is a late 2nd rounder.

Him or Jones would be my target from them. Agree on it hurts that the second rounder could be low.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

delete

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Moving a guy before it is too late is something the previous management group was bashed for by many. This is selling Nyquist or Tatar, Hudler or Filppula. This is the hard choice. Sometimes the market isn't right. We are in an easier place to do it given expectations, but moving on at a cut rate even if it happens is the kind of change many have been campaigning for. This is the real life warts to it but I think given where we are in the build and the failure in the last core build up the organization is ready to authorize the tougher call.

 

[Oddbob]

If you stick a jet pack on AA, he may never score again, but he might make it to space!

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Matheson is pretty legit... but I was under the impression that Holland isn’t a big AA fan either.

Holland really came around on AA last year from what I have heard. I would think he would be concerned about the regression given he knows the history, but he might feel he has the coverage defensively in Edmonton to gamble on what he brings offensively.

 

[Henkka]

Sure, let's change over to "per game" so we can ignore the fact that Mantha played over 2 more minutes more per game for his entire career.

Look, AA and Mantha played the same amount and scored the same amount of goals over their careers. The only significant difference there is that 100 of those minutes were PP for Mantha and SH for AA.

That's too bad for AA, that Mantha has lethal power-play shot and Athanasiou does not have.

 

[Henkka]

Holland really came around on AA last year from what I have heard. I would think he would be concerned about the regression given he knows the history, but he might feel he has the coverage defensively in Edmonton to gamble on what he brings offensively.

Jurco - Sheahan - Athanasiou would be nice to see.