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The Athletic Season Preview has Oilers being Cup Favorites

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More important though is the number to the far right: 15 percent. That’s Edmonton’s chances of winning it all, the highest of any team by a considerable margin; five percentage points. The Oilers are not just a contender, they’re the Stanley Cup favorite, period.

As is usual for the Cup favorite, that still means Edmonton doesn’t win it all way more often than not, with the most likely scenario being a second-round exit.

After losing to the Stanley Cup champions in back-to-back seasons in the second or third round, that doesn’t feel like something the Oilers want to settle for this year.

For Edmonton, it’s finally Cup or bust.
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Exciting times in the very least.
 
Big year. Dreger has Edmonton in the finals against....Toronto

3 things will internally make me more confident.

Getting a top 4 dman by the deadline. Seeing the goaltending at around 910. PK being close to top 10
 
Goaltending is the key. Whether it's Campbell or Skinner in the playoffs, our goaltending needs to be solid. We have the offense to compete with anyone (Brown will be a huge addition to this roster) but we need solid goaltending. I think Campbell will take over the starter's role at some point this year. Also, I think you will see a top 4 defenseman added this year to the roster closer to the deadline. I think we are one good defenseman away from being the top dog. It's fun to think like this than all those years where we were dogs*it.
 
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OILFAN FOREVER said:
Goaltending is the key. Whether it's Campbell or Skinner in the playoffs, our goaltending needs to be solid. We have the offense to compete with anyone (Brown will be a huge addition to this roster) but we need solid goaltending. I think Campbell will take over the starter's role at some point this year. Also, I think you will see a top 4 defenseman added this year to the roster closer to the deadline. I think we are one good defenseman away from being the top dog. It's fun to think like this than all those years where we were dogs*it.
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If we have both goalies over .910 (including playoffs) we will almost certainly win the cup unless something catastrophic happens somewhere else on the team. This is probably a bit of a stretch goal, but definitely achievable and would make us borderline unstoppable.
 
Graphics for anyone that wants a quick look:
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Cup chance better than Carolina because our path to the final would be easier.
 
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PositiveCashFlow said:
ahead of Toronto? I'm shocked
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I think the Ekholm pushed us over the top this year, in terms of an analytics analysis. Last year he had us pretty high to with ~100 points, but Ekholm rates high offensively and defensively to give a nice boost. Bouch might pump our numbers too since he really broke out last season with the PP.

Skinner had a good regular season, so goaltending is close to last year. We may have a little less dead weight in the forward depth too.

I think we all know what's up though. Goaltending is make or break and we can't be doofuses in our own zone defensively if we want to have a shot. Analytics saying you're good means nothing if our D are abandoning the net to chase guys to the blue line and our goalie has zero confidence and can't make a second effort on any scramble.
 
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Faelko said:
The last 15 years have made me skeptical….lol
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The last 15 years has nothing to do with this year but THIS make me skeptical

Nurse-Ceci
Ekholm-Bouchard
Kulak-Desharnais

This too but to a lesser extent

Skinner
Campbell

With that said, hockey moreso than any other sport largely comes down to luck, randomness (@Cloned ) in the playoffs with so much parity in the league and such razor thin margins between the good teams.
 
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One thing that I thought was interesting is The Athletic's model really likes our core 3 on defence with Dom saying in his article they actually rank third in the league. That's higher than I thought, shows how well rounded the team could be if a) Broberg can develop to fit that 4th defenceman spot, or b) they make a trade for someone who can actually play there. I think a third pairing of Kulak - Ceci would be quite good against the quality of competition they'd face.

theathletic.com

Oilers' big question: Is Edmonton's back end finally strong enough to win the Stanley Cup?

The Oilers suddenly have a strong defense group that can support its star-studded forwards. That makes them the team to beat this season.
theathletic.com theathletic.com
 

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CupofOil said:
The last 15 years has nothing to do with this year but THIS make me skeptical

Nurse-Ceci
Ekholm-Bouchard
Kulak-Desharnais

This too but to a lesser extent

Skinner
Campbell

With that said, hockey moreso than any other sport largely comes down to luck, randomness (@Cloned ) in the playoffs with so much parity in the league and such razor thin margins between the good teams.
Click to expand...
Agreed, as I've gotten older I've realized just how much needs to go exactly right for a particular team to win a cup. Not only is the outcome of a particular play or game highly random but you need the randomness of career years, injuries, and organization things to go your way too.

It's been a nice realization, I get a lot less mad at games now.
 
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We're almost there but I feel like we're still missing another top4 dman, which I hope Kenny can address come trade deadline. If we can add that plus maybe another 4th line center like a Bjugstad... I'd REALLY like our chances then.
 
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CupofOil said:
The last 15 years has nothing to do with this year but THIS make me skeptical

Nurse-Ceci
Ekholm-Bouchard
Kulak-Desharnais

This too but to a lesser extent

Skinner
Campbell

With that said, hockey moreso than any other sport largely comes down to luck, randomness (@Cloned ) in the playoffs with so much parity in the league and such razor thin margins between the good teams.
Click to expand...
Honestly, if those players were even average against Vegas I think EDM takes the series. But Skinner especially was atrocious and obviously overplayed and Woody not going to Campbell possibly cost them the series. At the end of the day we just need them to be average. I really feel like that could be enough. Colorado proved it during their cup run that average goaltending can be enough as long as you get enough depth when it matters.
 
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