The Athletic has ranked their top 30 NHL teams... Leafs and Flames at the top

[Chainshot]

Without the list, this was last year's predictions:

2021-22 NHL team previews: Dom Luszczyszyn’s projections and ranking of every NHL team

We're previewing all 32 NHL teams in order of predicted regular-season finish, according to Dom's model.

theathletic.com

 

[Arthur Morgan]

Leafs are number 1?
Im a Leafs fan and that sounds wrong

 

[Golden_Jet]

Regular season (just what I found googling):



Lowest log loss and one of the only ones to beat the books.

forgot to mention this part

Every model struggled and only one was able to beat the market, but it was still a bit disappointing to be closer to the middle than the top.

 

[bossram]

forgot to mention this part

Every model struggled and only one was able to beat the market, but it was still a bit disappointing to be closer to the middle than the top.

...And?

Every model struggled because of the unusually bifurcated distribution last season. Despite that, Dom's model was still the best and still beat the sportsbooks.

Nothing I said was incorrect. I gave evidence that Dom's model was the best-performing one last season. It was.

 

[PullHard]

Columbus and Detroit behind Seattle is interesting to me

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

The Flames are everyone’s favourite off-season flavour.

I’m sure they’ll have a great season, but they’re not getting through Edmonton, or Colorado in the playoffs.

 

[North Cole]

And this is why the Athletic is overpriced at even $1...

 

[BlueMed]

Because its hard to assume that Shesty will be Hasek two seasons in a row.

Shesty was never Hasek...

 

[ToDavid]

That’s not what his post mortem of last year says about the books.

I think there’s some confusion because he’s looking at two different metrics in his review. IIRC the average error of his pre-season points prediction didn’t beat the market. Only one model did and everyone, including the market, struggled compared to past years.

In individual game predictions throughout the season (log loss) he was on top and did beat the market.

 

[Devonator]

I could see the leafs but noooooooooo wayyyyyyyyy the Flames....that is laughable......

 

[SnipeShowJB11]

And this is why the Athletic is overpriced at even $1...

There is way to read it all for free...

 

[Nihiliste]

The Avs ran through Edmonton like a hot knife through butter, and Edmonton walked thru Calgary in 5 games. Yet Calgary is ahead of Colorado?

Laughable

The teams are different though. Colorado lost a 2C that played like a 1C and Calgary gained that same player, and got another Hart candidate to replace their outgoing Hart candidate, and added a good Dman.

Colorado is trying out people like Newhook, Rodrigues, Compher none of whom will be able to fill Kadri’s shoes. Or they might try to move Rantanen to center but it’s not clear how that will go.

Plus Colorado lost a good top 6 winger in Burakovsky and potentially downgraded on an already weak position in net.

They might answer some of these questions via trade during the season but the cap didn’t allow them to ice as strong of a team this year

 

[TK 421]

I'm not saying Dom's model blows goats, but as a Blues fan my initial reaction is that Dom's model does appear to blow goats as it pertains to the Blues.

 

[adsfan]

Little surprised how low the Blues consistently find themselves on all these "model-based" lists. I don't think they're necessarily a top contender, but they seem like a team that's firmly in the top 10 range.

Preds fan here.

The rankings are whacky! Toronto #1 overall? I should live to be that old to see it.

The Nashville fans see their division this season as:

1 Colorado

3 Nashville (or WC1)


I think St Louis looks like 2nd place and maybe Dallas for 4th.

Nobody is picking the Wild. Some of it may be Evason's coaching.


If The Pathetic swaps St Louis and the Wild, they would fit.

 

[Da McBomb]

Calgary so damn overrated

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

Is this the year for the Leafs to go all the way?

 

[kingsfan28]

Wow the athletic has really gone downhill eh? Leafs at #1. Gtfo

I was going to bring up #2 over the Avs. Yikes.

 

[ElLeetch]

There is like 3 teams in the top-12 whos entire roster is eligible for Social Security. is this a joke???

 

[LickTheEnvelope]

Boston ahead of Tampa is the eyebrow raiser for me.

 

[Bank Shot]

I mean, right there. His model isn't even primarily based on xGF%. Point production counts for more. So like, the criticism there isn't even accurate.

I definitely think his model has flaws - and Dom himself would say as much. But unless someone has a better systematic way to rank the teams, rather than just gut feeling, I would take his rankings as a solid baseline.

Again, his game prediction model has been better than anything else out there publicly (in the regular season).

The thing is, none of the models substantially out predict people just using their gut instincts.

If the models are 3% better than a bunch of random fans just throwing out predictions no one cares.

 

[bossram]

The thing is, none of the models substantially out predict people just using their gut instincts.

If the models are 3% better than a bunch of random fans just throwing out predictions no one cares.

This is categorically false. Dom’s model is clearly outperforming the general public - it’s outperforming the sportsbooks! And they have a very strong financial incentive to have accurate odds. In sports betting, a 3% edge on the house is massive and adds up to a lot of profit. If he’s 3% ahead, he’s doing very well.

If the average fan could predict games better than Dom’s model, every sportsbook would be broke.

 

[2023FriendshipTour]

Ain't too far fetched the Leafs have a good team and the Flames play in a mediocre division.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

Dallas is way too high. They will struggle this year without Rick Bowness's system.

 

[smytty]

Columbus and Detroit behind Seattle is interesting to me

He had Seattle ranked #10 last year

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I mean, right there. His model isn't even primarily based on xGF%. Point production counts for more. So like, the criticism there isn't even accurate.

I definitely think his model has flaws - and Dom himself would say as much. But unless someone has a better systematic way to rank the teams, rather than just gut feeling, I would take his rankings as a solid baseline.

Again, his game prediction model has been better than anything else out there publicly (in the regular season).

I didn't word that part right. I didn't mean his model was primarily based on xGF%. It was meant as part of an example of a general statement about if a model was heavily influenced by one particular stat like xGF% and someone has doubts about how accurate it is due to the limitations of that stat, some analytics folks will just hand wave the criticism away as "no stat is perfect. It's better than the eye test".