The Athletic has ranked their top 30 NHL teams... Leafs and Flames at the top

[Nineteen67]

Because its hard to assume that Shesty will be Hasek two seasons in a row.

I’d be more concerned about Kreider scoring 45 than Shesterkin.

 

[HockeyVirus]

That seems like a big leap for the Leafs when they still have goalie and especially blue line deficiencies.

When will this myth end? Leafs were a top 10 team last year in expected goals against and a top 10 team in shot suppression. The goaltending was absolutely terrible after November. I will give you that there are major questions in goal, but the Leafs have a very strong skater group which is why they are ranked so high.

People will be shocked if the Leafs go on a run? If so it will make for some interesting quotes to look back on when they do. Hockey wouldn't be hockey if these things didn't happen but they will win multiple rounds this year. The team is elite.

 

[TheNumber4]

Can someone post his prediction from last season?

 

[HockeyVirus]

Can someone post his prediction from last season?

Don't really care tbh if I said they would or wouldn't win a round. My opinion has changed because the information available has changed. The way this team played last season, they were a contender. They have grown, unsurprisingly, as their core has entered their primes. The team's depth is the best I have ever seen it. They are going to easily be a top 10 NHL team once again, most likely top 5, and are going to match up against much worse team who will be unlucky enough to be on the end of the Leafs letting out their frustrations and fixing past mistakes (Montreal).

Imagine if the OIlers faced the Avs in round 1. That's what happened with Tampa and it was a coin flip (1 goal). Oilers have also choked against terrible teams, like how the blackhawks who drafted top 3 the year before. Oilers group is a bit more mature and past their failures (not even making playoffs being among them) meanwhile Leafs are just getting there.

Only a fool would say if the Leafs didn't win a cup before Matthews and Marner were 25 they never would. Are you crazy they have 8 more years of elite play and are entering their peaks. Leafs are going to have a massive season

 

[Frank Drebin]

Wow the athletic has really gone downhill eh? Leafs at #1. Gtfo

Was it good at one point?

 

[Human]

It’s someone’s model, it’s like predicting a hurricane path. Take it as it is…

 

[TheNumber4]

Don't really care tbh if I said they would or wouldn't win a round. My opinion has changed because the information available has changed. The way this team played last season, they were a contender. They have grown, unsurprisingly, as their core has entered their primes. The team's depth is the best I have ever seen it. They are going to easily be a top 10 NHL team once again, most likely top 5, and are going to match up against much worse team who will be unlucky enough to be on the end of the Leafs letting out their frustrations and fixing past mistakes (Montreal).

Imagine if the OIlers faced the Avs in round 1. That's what happened with Tampa and it was a coin flip (1 goal). Oilers have also choked against terrible teams, like how the blackhawks who drafted top 3 the year before. Oilers group is a bit more mature and past their failures (not even making playoffs being among them) meanwhile Leafs are just getting there.

Only a fool would say if the Leafs didn't win a cup before Matthews and Marner were 25 they never would. Are you crazy they have 8 more years of elite play and are entering their peaks. Leafs are going to have a massive season

So many words not enough list. Looking for last years list not the never ending Leafs excuses.

 

[Golden_Jet]

He’s changed Seattle from 10th best last year, to 23rd best this year, isn’t Seattle a better team this year than last.

 

[Holymakinaw]

This overall list is crap. Montreal should be last.

 

[Connor McConnor]

If Boston is/gets healthy they have a shot(for 1 season).

One of the best teams defensively with some added offense.

Minnesota that high makes no damm sense.
Just lost Fiala and their C group isn’t anywhere good enough to compete

It's not that I don't see Boston making a run for the Playoffs it's just that I don't see how they finish that high with those injuries. If anything it's going to be a late season push from them to squeak in and then maybe cause some damage

 

[bossram]

It’s how bad he was last year on predictions, who had Seattle getting 97 points lol, hint no one.

And yet he still had the most accurate publically available prediction model, and he beat the sportsbooks.

 

[Vukotal Recall]

 

[ToDavid]

He also predicted the Sabres would be the worst team ever in the history of NHL regular seasons. I put about as much stock in his predictive power as I do my ability to select winning lottery numbers.

Huh? He projected 70 points for the Sabres last season. 5 points shy of their point total.

 

[Golden_Jet]

And yet he still had the most accurate publically available prediction model, and he beat the sportsbooks.

That’s not what his post mortem of last year says about the books.

 

[Romang67]

Other noteworthy teams:
21. Winnipeg

I disagree.

We're not at all noteworthy.

 

[Steerpike]

There's nothing wrong with thinking a model's results are dubious, but there seems to be a weird amount of hostility here to the basic premise of modelling at all.

If something predicts no change over last year people go "well no shit, this is boring"
If you predict anything vaguely controversial everyone jumps down your throat.

Modeling is hard.

It is prone to ridiculous amounts of confirmation bias if you are changing the knobs of the model after getting a result you don't like. However just because it can be done badly doesn't mean that it is always bad or not a useful exercise. That's like pointing out an idiot that says 2+2 = 5 and therefore math isn't to be trusted.

The correct response to early models being bad is to gradually raise our standards and transparency. It's like the transition from the nebulous shitty early 20th century medicine into rigorous modern medicine.

Or you can jump in with the chiropractors, homeopaths, and traditional Chinese medicine White Rhino horn f***ers and accumulate players that are "clutch"

 

[GrumpyKoala]

32. Arizona Coyotes
31. Montreal Canadiens
30. Chicago Blackhawks
29. Philadelphia Flyers
29. Buffalo Sabres
27. Columbus Blue Jackets
26. San Jose Sharks
25. Seattle Kraken
24. Anaheim Ducks
23. Detroit Red Wings
22. Winnipeg Jets
21. New Jersey Devils
20. Vancouver Canucks
19. New York Islanders
18. Ottawa Senators
17. Los Angeles Kings
16. Vegas Golden Knights
15. St. Louis Blues
14. Dallas Stars
13. Nashville Predators
12. Pittsburgh Penguins
11. Washington Capitals
10. Toronto Maple Leafs
9. Calgary Flames
8. Boston Bruins
7. New York Rangers
6. Edmonton Oilers
5. Carolina Hurricanes
4. Florida Panthers
3. Minnesota Wild
2. Tampa Bay Lightning
1. Colorado Avalanche

Just posting this here so I can comeback next year and look at how my 5 minute attempt compare to that ''advanced prediction model''

Dont mind me!

 

[bossram]

That’s not what his post mortem of last year says about the books.

Regular season (just what I found googling):



Lowest log loss and one of the only ones to beat the books.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

If someone has a better game prediction model, I'd very much like to see it. And again, I haven't seen anyone make any legitimate criticisms of his model other than "lol, this team is too high/low".

What do you consider "legitimate criticisms"? Because it seems like if a model is based primarily on xGF% and someone says that stat has limitations and isn't the be-all when it comes to predicting rankings because of those limitations., people say "that's not a legitimate criticism. No stat is perfect".

Here's the thing: I'm not even saying his (or anyone else's) methodology is *bad* per se. I just have an issue when some folks act as though it's *vastly superior* to anyone who doesn't ascribe to the analytics he uses. The fact he has a lot of misses -- and some were blatantly obvious it was going to be a miss like Seattle last year, which we even had a discussion about -- should suggest people need to stop using Dom (or anyone else's) model as "trump cards" where they slam down a tweet from Dom and basically act like they won the argument.

So ultimately it's not even Dom (or other analytics folks) who I have the bigger issue with. It's in HF's poster's use of his models as though they're nearly infallible and what they project is clearly superior to the average fan who makes their rankings based on other stuff that's not necessarily xGF or RAPM or GAR specific.

 

[LeafGrief]

27th is very low for the Blue Jackets. They've got a very young blueline, but if it's even remotely passable, they'll be a surprisingly good team. Gaudreau and Laine make that offense a real threat and they've got solid goaltending.

I think they could make the playoffs.

 

[sabremike]

Dom = Analytics Larry Brooks.

 

[bossram]

What do you consider "legitimate criticisms"? Because it seems like if a model is based primarily on xGF% and someone says that stat has limitations and isn't the be-all when it comes to predicting rankings because of those limitations., people say "that's not a legitimate criticism. No stat is perfect".

Here's the thing: I'm not even saying his (or anyone else's) methodology is *bad* per se. I just have an issue when some folks act as though it's *vastly superior* to anyone who doesn't ascribe to the analytics he uses. The fact he has a lot of misses -- and some were blatantly obvious it was going to be a miss like Seattle last year, which we even had a discussion about -- should suggest people need to stop using Dom (or anyone else's) model as "trump cards" where they slam down a tweet from Dom and basically act like they won the argument.

So ultimately it's not even Dom (or other analytics folks) who I have the bigger issue with. It's in HF's poster's use of his models as though they're nearly infallible and what they project is clearly superior to the average fan who makes their rankings based on other stuff that's not necessarily xGF or RAPM or GAR specific.

I mean, right there. His model isn't even primarily based on xGF%. Point production counts for more. So like, the criticism there isn't even accurate.

I definitely think his model has flaws - and Dom himself would say as much. But unless someone has a better systematic way to rank the teams, rather than just gut feeling, I would take his rankings as a solid baseline.

Again, his game prediction model has been better than anything else out there publicly (in the regular season).

 

[Machinehead]

The Leafs are actually pretty good. They've run into the team that ended up in the SCF in round 1 three out of the last four years. Bad matchup luck more than anything.

They shouldn't be #1, however, because Colorado exists if for no other reason.

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

I don't see any ads, so not sure what you're referring to. If you have a link then feel free to share.

You're acting like Dom ranks the Leafs 1st in the league every single season, but since you're too lazy or stubborn to check, here you go:

2017-18 - 12th in NHL (finished 7th)
2018-19 - 3rd in NHL (finished 7th)
2019-20 - 2nd in NHL (finished 13th) - shortened season
2020-21 - 3rd in NHL (finished 6th) - North division, so he didn't actually do full 31 team rankings, but I compared
2021-22 - 2nd in NHL (finished 4th)

So you're implying that the guy is biased and always picks the Leafs, yet this is the only season he's ever put them 1st in his rankings, which aren't even subjective or personal opinion but rather based on a data model. Not to mention they are regular season projections that have nothing to do with the playoffs, and you know, the Leafs are always pretty good in the regular season.

You can critique his models if you want, but acting like the dude is biased and is 'without a shred of humility' when he's been fairly reasonable is pretty silly.

No, it’s really not. The guy isn’t humble about his model.

For example, the 2017-18 season. He had listed the Oilers as missing key players like….Brandon Davidson who was traded away during the trade deadline. What was even better was how his model was completely off, since the Oilers made the playoffs. Dom declared it a wash because reasons.

And yes, there are ads on the site. As someone who’s been a long time subscriber now, it’s disappointing that the athletic claims to be all about premium coverage but then is having ads on their site with no cost changes. That’s fair game for criticism, just like Doms as well.

 

[Steerpike]

Regular season (just what I found googling):



Lowest log loss and one of the only ones to beat the books.

Also worth noting that the "books" are effectively a giant ensamble model built out of proprietary statistics.

The Leafs are actually pretty good. They've run into the team that ended up in the SCF in round 1 three out of the last four years. Bad matchup luck more than anything.

They shouldn't be #1, however, because Colorado exists if for no other reason.

The model is allowed to dislike the loss of Kadri, Burakovski, and Kuemper. It's not insignificant roster turnover.