The Athletic has ranked their top 30 NHL teams... Leafs and Flames at the top

Reality Czech

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Apr 17, 2017
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I mean, last season was the most bifurcated season of the modern era between playoff and non-playoff teams - it was "weird" in that sense. All the public models were off more than usual, yet Dom's model was still the most accurate and still beat the sportsbook odds. You had MSM people saying Winnipeg and Ottawa were making the playoffs, lmao. If anyone had a perfect standings prediction, I'd like to see it.

Dom's model also had the Stanley Cup Winner predicted from his top-2 ranked teams 5 of the 6 last seasons.


Yeah. The model may be flawed (all models are), but he's not going into it with some vibes-based analysis. He just reports the model output.


It's a subscription site. They don't need clicks. And considering the vitriol Dom gets for his model's view of the Leafs, if anything, you'd think he'd want to tone down the Leafs' result (he's literally said as much).

Also, the Leafs finished with the third most points last season. The two teams ahead of them also lost significant pieces. I don't see why predicting a President's trophy is that outlandish.


I mean, it's the most accurate publically available regular season model. But sure

Micah's model routinely places near the bottom for accuracy, every season.

I mean, you didn't read the article anyway, so why are you complaining?

His model loves the Bruin's players, always has. Views Bergeron/Marchand/McAvoy as elite. And doesn't think those guys missing a month will hurt them too much.

Why? Arizona and Chicago are literally built to lose this season. Having one more super unlucky/bad team isn't that crazy.

There are definitely things to disagree with Dom's model for, but it would be nice to read some actually cogent or rational criticisms. All the vitriol for Dom's model being "biased" are coming from people being biased themselves.

Hi Dom
 

Oilslick941611

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Jul 4, 2006
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Wow. Imagine The Athletic used to be considered worth paying for, once upon a time.

How are Leafs, who have gotten worse since last year, somehow the #1 team in NHL? I mean, I know the answer - it's because this will get them clicks.
It’s a dollar
 
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bossram

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Sep 25, 2013
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This. Everyone calls out the Leafs for being nothing more than a regular season team then gets mad when a ranking based on actual data and a real methodology puts them high in the regular season rankings, which they always are.
It's hilarious and shows how stupid some people are. Everybody rags the Leafs for being a regular-season team. Then rankings come out and everyone says their regular season rankings are too high? Comical.
 
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snipes

How cold? I’m ice cold.
Dec 28, 2015
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His model can't predict a 5 game historic bad goaltending performance.

It was clear Flames were the better team as Oilers didn't even compete in the western finals.

No, it was not clear at all. How can you honestly say that after the Oilers gentlemen swept the Flames?

Keep drinking that Kool-Aid. Knocked Johnny and Chucky right back to America.

 

Tad Mikowsky

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His model can't predict a 5 game historic bad goaltending performance.

It was clear Flames were the better team as Oilers didn't even compete in the western finals.

False. Just sounds like more coping from a Flames fan who’s bravado vanished when his team got humiliated.
 
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DJJones

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Nov 18, 2014
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Significant amount of questionable rankings on the Flames.

Kinda makes me doubt the whole thing.
 

Tad Mikowsky

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It's a subscription model, so clicks won't really get them anything, and I don't think people are subscribing to read this one article. Then again, you're all here complaining about the rankings despite not actually reading the article or how the rankings were developed.

TA has plenty of content outside of the NHL. Well worth the price of admission, IMO.

A subscription model that announced literally overnight that they’re adding advertisements, despite you know, being a subscription model that promised they would never have ads.

The price is still the same though for returning subscribers.

Then you add Dom, a notorious Leaf homer who thinks his model is the bestest without a shred of humility putting his favorite team one, it’s not shocking why people are taking shots at the athletic.
 

Saltcreek

Registered User
Nov 23, 2016
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His model can't predict a 5 game historic bad goaltending performance.

It was clear Flames were the better team as Oilers didn't even compete in the western finals.

Care to explain how the better team lost 4 games in a row?

You are really embarassing yourself this off/preseason with some gems of idiocy.
 

TheRumble

Registered User
Feb 19, 2009
1,465
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It's hilarious and shows how stupid some people are. Everybody rags the Leafs for being a regular-season team. Then rankings come out and everyone says their regular season rankings are too high? Comical.

Ah, a fellow bettor who understands.

Dom before he got his writing gig was actually a fairly well known hockey sharp in betting circles. He used to make a living betting on hockey. Not a high roller by any means but a very sharp mind.

He's consistently been the most accurate projector among the big media outlets since he started doing these things.

- He was one of the few analysts that predicted the 17-18 Sens missing the playoffs despite their ECF Run.
- He had Montreal as a bottom 10 team going into last year despite their finals run.
- For the Oiler fans here: Last year he had you guys as the 6th best team in the league in a year where almost everyone was low on the team including many of you.
- He had the Leafs as a bubble team in 16-17 despite them finishing last in the league the year prior.

I give this thread about 20 pages before the mods close it.
 

tarheelhockey

Offside Review Specialist
Feb 12, 2010
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Cup winners and their preseason rankings in Doms model:

16-17: Pens (1st in model)
17-18: Caps (2nd in model)
18-19: Blues (the article I'm reading didn't mention, but they are 100% the exception)
19-20: TB (1st in model)
20-21: TB (2nd in model)
21-22: Avs (1st in model)

One of the top 2 teams in his model has won 5/6 seasons. Plan the parade boys, it might be coming home!!!!!!

Adding their place in the previous season's standings:

16-17: Pens (1st in model) 4th
17-18: Caps (2nd in model) 1st
18-19: Blues (the article I'm reading didn't mention, but they are 100% the exception) 18th
19-20: TB (1st in model) 1st
20-21: TB (2nd in model) 3rd
21-22: Avs (1st in model) 1st

So 2017 was the only time this model outperformed "pick the best team from last season".
 

ThatGuy22

Registered User
Oct 11, 2011
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The overrating of the Flames has reached next level territory.

Also you'd think these stats masters and outlets would get tired of constantly picking disappointments to be the best teams in the league, yet they never do.

I mean, he literally had Colorado #1 last year....

5 of 6 seasons, the Stanley Cup champion was either #1 or #2 in his preseason model.
 

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