The Athletic has ranked their top 30 NHL teams... Leafs and Flames at the top

[Xirik]

Boston & Jersey should be about 10 spots lower.

so Boston is ranked -4 and Jersey at 9.

 

[dmac7719]

It's downright disrespectful not to have Colorado at #1

Is it? The championship Avs team loss Kadri who was rated as a 1C, a top six winger in Burky, and although Kuemper's play in the playoffs was basically some kind of joke, he still provided tremendous value in Dom's model.

These 3 players are being replaced in the model with players that haven't shown the level of play of the players that have departed. It doesn't mean that players like Newhook, Rodrigues, Georgiev can't necessarily replicate what Kadri, Burky and Kuemper provided, just that as of right now they haven't which is shown in the model.

 

[cneely]

Interesting. Micah's model has the Leafs missing the playoffs and Calgary finishing 13th.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Is it? The championship Avs team loss Kadri who was rated as a 1C, a top six winger in Burky, and although Kuemper's play in the playoffs was basically some kind of joke, he still provided tremendous value in Dom's model.

These 3 players are being replaced in the model with players that haven't shown the level of play of the players that have departed. It doesn't mean that players like Newhook, Rodrigues, Georgiev can't necessarily replicate what Kadri, Burky and Kuemper provided, just that as of right now they haven't which is shown in the model.

Kadri has never been a #1 C

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

Beat me to it OP

Team	B/R	Athletic	ESPN	HFBoards	Average	Std. D
Colorado Avalanche	1	3	1	1	1.5	0.9
Toronto Maple Leafs	4	1	3	4	3.0	1.2
Tampa Bay Lightning	3	7	6	2	4.5	2.1
Calgary Flames	5	2	4	8	4.8	2.2
Carolina Hurricanes	2	8	7	3	5.0	2.5
Florida Panthers	6	4	2	9	5.3	2.6
New York Rangers	7	14	8	5	8.5	3.4
Edmonton Oilers	8	10	12	6	9.0	2.2
Minnesota Wild	9	5	10	12	9.0	2.5
St. Louis Blues	10	17	5	7	9.8	4.5
Boston Bruins	11	6	9	13	9.8	2.6
Pittsburgh Penguins	12	9	11	10	10.5	1.1
Washington Capitals	14	12	14	14	13.5	0.9
Nashville Predators	16	11	13	15	13.8	1.9
Dallas Stars	15	13	15	16	14.8	1.1
Vegas Golden Knights	17	15	16	11	14.8	2.3
Los Angeles Kings	13	16	19	17	16.3	2.2
Vancouver Canucks	19	18	17	18	18.0	0.7
New York Islanders	21	20	20	20	20.3	0.4
Winnipeg Jets	23	21	18	22	21.0	1.9
Ottawa Senators	20	22	28	19	22.3	3.5
Detroit Red Wings	18	24	24	24	22.5	2.6
Columbus Blue Jackets	22	27	23	21	23.3	2.3
New Jersey Devils	26	19	26	23	23.5	2.9
Anaheim Ducks	24	25	21	26	24.0	1.9
San Jose Sharks	25	26	22		24.3	1.7
Buffalo Sabres	27	29	25	25	26.5	1.7
Seattle Kraken	31	23	29	27	27.5	3.0
Chicago Blackhawks	29	30	27		28.7	1.2
Philadelphia Flyers	30	28	30		29.3	0.9
Montreal Canadiens	28	31	31		30.0	1.4
Arizona Coyotes	32	32	32		32.0	0.0

 

[EveryDay]

NYR should be way higher, what the hell is Boston doing that high??

 

[leafsfan5]

Isn't this based on regular season? If so, Toronto at 1 isn't a bad take

The Leafs lost the least out of the top teams except for maybe Carolina and are essentially the same team as last year. Based on that, winning the Presidents isn't far off for them

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

That seems like a big leap for the Leafs when they still have goalie and especially blue line deficiencies.

Seems like they've bought too much into the Flames offseason hype by my standards.

Panthers seem inexplicably high, but I guess not by a huge amount.

Aren't the Wild starting to feel dead cap crunch?

The Wild have room this year, next year they will need to drop Dumba most likely, but do have help coming in Addison and Faber. It will be two seasons from now when the trouble hits as Hartman, Foligno, Goligoski and Fleury contracts expire, the cap is projected to jump pretty high that year, but all of those players are being very clearly underpaid and outside of Goligoski, they are in prominent roles. It’s possible the prospect pool allows for internal replacements, but that will be the year with question marks.

 

[dmac7719]

Kadri has never been a #1 C

He had 87 points in 71 games, and finished 9th in scoring for centers. He played like and was valued by Dom's model, like a 1C last season. Just last season.

 

[Love]

#LeafsForever

 

[KPower]

Looks 100% accurate to me.

 

[Ace]

Leafs at 1?

who do they have 8th in the East so we can win easy money on the first round?

 

[Reality Czech]

From what I can tell, the people working at the Atlantic are either dumb, drunk or trolls. Glad I don't pay for the privilege to have my IQ drop every time I read it.

 

[KevinRedkey]

Boston at 6 seems particularly odd IMO

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

He had 87 points in 71 games, and finished 9th in scoring for centers. He played like and was valued by Dom's model, like a 1C last season. Just last season.

and therein lies the problem is Dom's "model" and why he's rarely right

 

[Rich Nixon]

Absolutely f***ing laughable to assert that there are 4 teams worse than the Flyers.

 

[Breakers]

first place with the goaltending uncertainty??

 

[BlueMed]

Little surprised how low the Blues consistently find themselves on all these "model-based" lists. I don't think they're necessarily a top contender, but they seem like a team that's firmly in the top 10 range.

Cam and Strick did a podcast with Coach Bedner and Cogliano, and if I remember correctly, they both said St. Louis was Colorado's hardest opponent in the playoffs.

The Athletic is a joke. Dom's model predicts roughly a 50% chance the Blues make the playoffs. They are a top 3-4 team in the West.

 

[McHelpus]

Whoever wins the cup should always be #1 imo

Flames being 2nd after barely beating Dallas and getting gentleman swept is a joke. They are clearly the most overrated team heading into the season.

 

[Fight4yourRight]

Flyers should be last

 

[BlueMed]

Is it? The championship Avs team loss Kadri who was rated as a 1C, a top six winger in Burky, and although Kuemper's play in the playoffs was basically some kind of joke, he still provided tremendous value in Dom's model.

These 3 players are being replaced in the model with players that haven't shown the level of play of the players that have departed. It doesn't mean that players like Newhook, Rodrigues, Georgiev can't necessarily replicate what Kadri, Burky and Kuemper provided, just that as of right now they haven't which is shown in the model.

Kadri is not a true 1C. He had a career year and flourished in the 2C role. C'mon man.

 

[leafsfan5]

Cup winners and their preseason rankings in Doms model:

16-17: Pens (1st in model)
17-18: Caps (2nd in model)
18-19: Blues (the article I'm reading didn't mention, but they are 100% the exception)
19-20: TB (1st in model)
20-21: TB (2nd in model)
21-22: Avs (1st in model)

One of the top 2 teams in his model has won 5/6 seasons. Plan the parade boys, it might be coming home!!!!!!

 

[ThankGord]

Damn they did STL and NYR dirty with this one.

 

[Mr Sakich]

Wow. Imagine The Athletic used to be considered worth paying for, once upon a time.

How are Leafs, who have gotten worse since last year, somehow the #1 team in NHL? I mean, I know the answer - it's because this will get them clicks.

his model uses Expected goals, not expected number of games lost due to near league bottom goaltending

 

[bossram]

It's funny that essentially (paraphrasing) Dom's excuse for why his model did relatively mediocre last year was due to it being a weird season and that other models also did badly.

"I, Sidney the Kidney, predicted Arizona and Montreal will meet in the Stanley Cup finals. There's nothing wrong with my methodology that helped me arrive at that conclusion, it was just a bunch of weird things that couldn't be accounted for that caused me to be wrong. My model is fine."

I mean, last season was the most bifurcated season of the modern era between playoff and non-playoff teams - it was "weird" in that sense. All the public models were off more than usual, yet Dom's model was still the most accurate and still beat the sportsbook odds. You had MSM people saying Winnipeg and Ottawa were making the playoffs, lmao. If anyone had a perfect standings prediction, I'd like to see it.

Dom's model also had the Stanley Cup Winner predicted from his top-2 ranked teams 5 of the 6 last seasons.

That’s what his model tells him.

Yeah. The model may be flawed (all models are), but he's not going into it with some vibes-based analysis. He just reports the model output.

Wow. Imagine The Athletic used to be considered worth paying for, once upon a time.

How are Leafs, who have gotten worse since last year, somehow the #1 team in NHL? I mean, I know the answer - it's because this will get them clicks.

It's a subscription site. They don't need clicks. And considering the vitriol Dom gets for his model's view of the Leafs, if anything, you'd think he'd want to tone down the Leafs' result (he's literally said as much).

Also, the Leafs finished with the third most points last season. The two teams ahead of them also lost significant pieces. I don't see why predicting a President's trophy is that outlandish.

Dom and his dogshit models strike again.

I mean, it's the most accurate publically available regular season model. But sure

Interesting. Micah's model has the Leafs missing the playoffs and Calgary finishing 13th.

Micah's model routinely places near the bottom for accuracy, every season.

From what I can tell, the people working at the Atlantic are either dumb, drunk or trolls. Glad I don't pay for the privilege to have my IQ drop every time I read it.

I mean, you didn't read the article anyway, so why are you complaining?

Boston at 6 seems particularly odd IMO

His model loves the Bruin's players, always has. Views Bergeron/Marchand/McAvoy as elite. And doesn't think those guys missing a month will hurt them too much.

Absolutely f***ing laughable to assert that there are 4 teams worse than the Flyers.

Why? Arizona and Chicago are literally built to lose this season. Having one more super unlucky/bad team isn't that crazy.

There are definitely things to disagree with Dom's model for, but it would be nice to read some actually cogent or rational criticisms. All the vitriol for Dom's model being "biased" are coming from people being biased themselves.