The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VIII:

[SnowblindNYR]

I'm super excited I'm going to an alumni event for my grad school. I think a lot of what they talk about will be pertinent to this thread. Though none of the guests are from the NHL.

Sports has become a multibillion-dollar industry in the US and globally. The impact of technology on the world of sports is increasing as data analytics, digital marketing and artificial intelligence is being used to amplify fans’ experience of games, enhance athletes’ public profiles as well as their training regimens and increase fan engagement with fantasy sports and online gaming.

 

[silverfish]

IMHO this is backwards thinking,
stats, even ADVANCED stats, are just part of the whole picture, a reflection of some of the reality, but should never be an end unto themselves.
the widespread impulse to over-emphasize some stats is a trend that i hope will fade after a while, its a dis-service to the players and the game

i don't have a stats report in front of me,
but i bet if you reviewed any rankings,
there will be players of whom you would say he actually isn't as impactful as his numbers indicate,
and other guys who you'd say have more positive impact than the numbers would indicate

any stat is just one tool or metric among many

and besides Pionk is only 30 games into his career as an NHL D-man, his overall impact and contribution, by all measures, are likely to improve

Question for you, cwede. Bringing you here so we don't derail the Pionk thread...

Let's say you had a stats report in front of you, and you were looking at a metric you'd expect a player to be good at, but it turns out they perform poorly. Do you throw out the metric, or do you question that maybe your evaluation was wrong? Because reality is, that a metric doesn't lie. Analysis can lie, but metrics can't.

Curious about your thoughts, here.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Question for you, cwede. Bringing you here so we don't derail the Pionk thread...

Let's say you had a stats report in front of you, and you were looking at a metric you'd expect a player to be good at, but it turns out they perform poorly. Do you throw out the metric, or do you question that maybe your evaluation was wrong? Because reality is, that a metric doesn't lie. Analysis can lie, but metrics can't.

Curious about your thoughts, here.

I hate to rehash this debate but can't metrics be deceiving? For example, Eli Manning has completed a very high percentage of passes. If you look at that by itself you think he's doing great. But then you look at yardage per completion and you see there's more to the story.

 

[silverfish]

I hate to rehash this debate but can't metrics be deceiving? For example, Eli Manning has completed a very high percentage of passes. If you look at that by itself you think he's doing great. But then you look at yardage per completion and you see there's more to the story.

Yes, of course, but the point is you're questioning it, and re-evaluating. It has to go both ways. You can't just always say to yourself: "I disagree with this metric, it's obviously wrong". Just like you should be asking yourself, in regards to Neal Pionk, okay, he gets slaughtered in shot attempts, but he looks good. So. What am I missing? You can't just default to throwing the metric out.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Yes, of course, but the point is you're questioning it, and re-evaluating. It has to go both ways. You can't just always say to yourself: "I disagree with this metric, it's obviously wrong". Just like you should be asking yourself, in regards to Neal Pionk, okay, he gets slaughtered in shot attempts, but he looks good. So. What am I missing? You can't just default to throwing the metric out.

Yeah, I agree. But the way you stated it made it sound like you just follow the stat. I guess metrics never lie but without context can be deceiving.

 

[silverfish]

Yeah, I agree. But the way you stated it made it sound like you just follow the stat. I guess metrics never lie but without context can be deceiving.

I'll happily admit the metrics prove me wrong more than my eyes prove them wrong. And I trust the metrics more than my own eye-test. But, I'll continue to question them.

Going back to your point, Tyree Jackson has only completed 57% of his throws this year but I know that's crap because George Rushing III keeps DROPPING BALLS CATCH IT YOU POS

 

[cwede]

Question for you, cwede. Bringing you here so we don't derail the Pionk thread...

Let's say you had a stats report in front of you, and you were looking at a metric you'd expect a player to be good at, but it turns out they perform poorly. Do you throw out the metric, or do you question that maybe your evaluation was wrong? Because reality is, that a metric doesn't lie. Analysis can lie, but metrics can't.

Curious about your thoughts, here.

I would not subjectively reject the metrics,
I am not so cocky to believe my impressions overrule genuine data,

and I think they are valuable, especially as a teaching/ awareness tool for a developing player

But whatever the metric, it just measures a focused slice of the performance.

It is not my may to evaluate a players overall value or contribution easily or quickly

The stats discussions always remind me of the "just-so story" of the blind men, and the elephant
With limited info (sometimes by choice, in some stats discussions) to base your valuation on, an incomplete conclusion is likely

 

[cwede]

But also, I don't pretend to be anything but a supportuve fan, giving almost every player benefit of the doubt until they repeatedly demonstrate they haven't earned it

 

[silverfish]

I would not subjectively reject the metrics,
I am not so cocky to believe my impressions overrule genuine data,

and I think they are valuable, especially as a teaching/ awareness tool for a developing player

But whatever the metric, it just measures a focused slice of the performance.

It is not my may to evaluate a players overall value or contribution easily or quickly

The stats discussions always remind me of the "just-so story" of the blind men, and the elephant
With limited info (sometimes by choice, in some stats discussions) to base your valuation on, an incomplete conclusion is likely

I think your assumption here is that when people are using "limited info", well, they aren't. They are most likely using a plethora of metrics and their "eye-test". Nobody is going to write a full essay in a post on HF, so they boil it down to inputs that they find important. You read the final version which might just be essentially a tl;dr of info, and find it unsatisfactory to your standards.

There's an interesting 'burden of proof' placed on to someone who uses metrics in their argument versus when someone saunters into a PGT, posts something like "PIONK LOOKED GREAT LAST NIGHT" and for whatever reason, that post is fine. But, someone pointing out that Pionk got shelled in the shot attempt game, and is a total drag on Skjei, well, for whatever reason, that post 'isn't good enough'. It's curious, IMO. But the answer is pretty easy, and it's that people don't like to be wrong. So if you think Pionk looked great, but objective data says that he struggled in some areas, well, you're not going to like it. And I feel that.

 

[DanielBrassard]

I can almost understand why Pionk for example is hard to watch and think "he's bad". He skates well, is decent with the puck, has a big shot. But for some reason almost every game he plays he gets shelled. And like Silverfish said, there are more metrics and data to look at that could give insight as to why he struggles, or someone like him even though according to some people's eye-test he looks good.

 

[silverfish]

 

[Filthy Dangles]

So, here's a major plateau and shortcoming of advanced stats. We know Pionk might not be all that good, but why? What might he do or not do that causes the team to get hemmed in and constantly lose the shot share battle with him vs other players on the team or in general?

Now, I know the "why" might irrelevant to the numbers guys. I could see why it might be, in the end, all that matters is you're good and you can play or you're not and you can't.

I'd really like to see someone answer the 'why' on a low level using a statistical approach.

 

[DanielBrassard]

So, here's a major plateau and shortcoming of advanced stats. We know Pionk might not be all that good, but why? What might he do or not do that causes the team to get hemmed in and constantly lose the shot share battle with him vs other players on the team or in general?

Now, I know the "why" might irrelevant to the numbers guys. I could see why it might be, in the end, all that matters is you're good and you can play or you're not and you can't.

I'd really like to see someone answer the 'why' on a low level using a statistical approach.

It's a very interesting question. My guess would be the biggest thing that's hurt him so far is the transition game. He's seemed to have been very reliant on just chipping the puck off the wall out to center which becomes a turnover instead of maintaining possession coming out of the zone. Also there's only 6 games of data but in those 6 games he's been terrible at protecting the blue line, which is really important. If that data continues for the other 30 games or so he's played, that's a big reason why.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

It's a very interesting question. My guess would be the biggest thing that's hurt him so far is the transition game. He's seemed to have been very reliant on just chipping the puck off the wall out to center which becomes a turnover instead of maintaining possession coming out of the zone. Also there's only 6 games of data but in those 6 games he's been terrible at protecting the blue line, which is really important. If that data continues for the other 30 games or so he's played, that's a big reason why.

And those 2 things are by no means exclusive, either. If you're constantly chipping off window, you're probably gonna get caught behind the play alot and not be able to gap up properly so teams will quickly counter or regroup and come back in and catch you with a loose gap.

The thing is he wows you a few times a game in Control Breakouts when he has the time, like this pass to saucer pass to Hayes or a few of the rushes he had tonight. But I'd agree in normal breakouts with more forechecking pressure he's gotta make better plays coming out.



I'm gonna go back watch and some tape on him when I have some time and try to figure some things out. He's a talented guy and I belive there are no 'bad' players in the NHL unless you are Tanner Glass etc, just "misused".

BTW, is there a log that consolidates all the shot for/against a particular player with the time and period information? It would be a PITA to go through each raw game file and have to sift through all the shots myself.

 

[DanielBrassard]

And those 2 things are by no means exclusive, either. If you're constantly chipping off window, you're probably gonna get caught behind the play alot and not be able to gap up properly so teams will quickly counter or regroup and come back in and catch you with a loose gap.

The thing is he wows you a few times a game in Control Breakouts when he has the time, like this pass to saucer pass to Hayes or a few of the rushes he had tonight. But I'd agree in normal breakouts with more forechecking pressure he's gotta make better plays coming out.



I'm gonna go back watch and some tape on him when I have some time and try to figure some things out. He's a talented guy and I belive there are no 'bad' players in the NHL unless you are Tanner Glass etc, just "misused".

I can't disagree with what you said at all. He has moments where he makes some great plays, like the one you posted or the play he made in the third period when he spun off a guy, cut into the middle and ended up with a great scoring chance. I think he has some nice tools, but has to figure out how to make better decisions coming out of his end especially.

 

[SA16]

So, here's a major plateau and shortcoming of advanced stats. We know Pionk might not be all that good, but why? What might he do or not do that causes the team to get hemmed in and constantly lose the shot share battle with him vs other players on the team or in general?

Now, I know the "why" might irrelevant to the numbers guys. I could see why it might be, in the end, all that matters is you're good and you can play or you're not and you can't.

I'd really like to see someone answer the 'why' on a low level using a statistical approach.

I think the why is very important. When I watch him I see a player who is a good skater, who is pretty good with the puck, and who can create offense. He’s obviously skilled. By all means he should be a good player however he has been constantly hemmed in his zone. If it can be figured out exactly what’s causing the problem I think it is something that with coaching can be corrected to make him a valuable piece. Fortunately we do now appear to have a coach who is interested in teaching and helping players in opposition to AV who didn’t even communicate with them.

 

[Machinehead]

Yo, we're 6th in K-rating.

I'm officially done with that stat lol

 

[silverfish]

It's easier to remember the 1 or 2 breakout passes than it is the 5 or 6 off the boards and out to let the other team regroup and attack again.

 

[Miamipuck]

I don't think Pionk looks all that great via the eye test. He has the skill set that should allow him to succeed in the NHL, so he looks the part.

I think the game is still too fast for him. I don't mean he cant keep up physically, I think it's the mental part of it. The part where you take that extra nano-second to look up and make that pass, or as you are chasing the puck in the corner, you take a glance as to where your teammates are.

Also as mentioned, he isn't as effective in the neutral zone and top of the blue line. Maybe it will require an adjustment to the new system. Maybe he isn't confident he can play higher and stop the on rushing forwards and it's a speed of the game issue, maybe it's a simple gap problem. The point being is you can't allow opponents an easy entry and then follow up getting possession back with slapping it up the boards. Those 2 things cancel each other out.

Has anyone thought about a pass completion % stat for defenseman by zone? Is there one? I would love to see something like that and then have it broken down into a heat chart, similar to what they do with shots. I would bet Staal, Pionk and a few others would be at the bottom of the % list.

 

[SA16]

It's easier to remember the 1 or 2 breakout passes than it is the 5 or 6 off the boards and out to let the other team regroup and attack again.

Yea so if he is good at other stuff and can make the breakout pass but just tries to chip it out of the zone too much which ends up in turnovers I think that is something that can easily be corrected via coaching. Obviously the coaching staff needs to be aware that this is an issue and then just work with him and show him what other options are available.

 

[silverfish]

Yea so if he is good at other stuff and can make the breakout pass but just tries to chip it out of the zone too much which ends up in turnovers I think that is something that can easily be corrected via coaching. Obviously the coaching staff needs to be aware that this is an issue and then just work with him and show him what other options are available.

Unless the coaching staff are the ones telling him to "make the safe play" and "just get it out"

 

[SA16]

Unless the coaching staff are the ones telling him to "make the safe play" and "just get it out"

Well if he did the same thing last year under AV that he is doing now under Quinn (and possibly in the minors) then it would seem to be more on him than the coaching staff. He most likely isn't even aware that it's an issue which is why it's on the coaching staff to recognize it and try and make some changes.

 

[silverfish]

Well if he did the same thing last year under AV that he is doing now under Quinn (and possibly in the minors) then it would seem to be more on him than the coaching staff. He most likely isn't even aware that it's an issue which is why it's on the coaching staff to recognize it and try and make some changes.

Perhaps, but it's already obvious and the only thing they're doing is making Pionk a 25 minute a night, all situations 1RD.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Is there any place to go for a Player Log of Shots For/Against with Time and Period? I wanna make it easier to go back in the Game for the specific Shots he was on against. It would be a real PITA to sift through all the Play-by-Play files......

 

[silverfish]

lol - NYR 1819 Pionk Replacements

Is there any place to go for a Player Log of Shots For/Against with Time and Period? I wanna make it easier to go back in the Game for the specific Shots he was on against. It would be a real PITA to sift through all the Play-by-Play files......

Probably not, unless you scrape it yourself. I also question the utility of this analysis. What's the goal/question?