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The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VIII:

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silverfish said:
That this goal was his fault, despite the four players in the frame guarding no one and playing AV hockey...

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I mean, it was lazy, but definitely not his fault.
 
silverfish said:
I don't even think it was lazy. That's not his man.
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No, but he sort of sulked into the zone and he had a sour exchange with Quinn already.

Not that I blame him. You play well for one of the premier contenders in the league and they send you to die on a garbage team.
 
silverfish said:
That this goal was his fault, despite the four players in the frame guarding no one and playing AV hockey...

Do8Z0j2X0AYplP2.jpg
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I didn't watch what Vally had to say but ehhh...I think when a guy is cruising all alone into the slot and you're a step behind him and no one else is around then maybe it becomes your responsibility to cover that guy. Plenty of blame to around on that goal (two defensemen behind the net, who knows what Zuccarello is doing, and Howden seemed to think that attaching himself to the goalpost was effectively covering the front of the net) so I think it's pointless to pin it all on one player, but Namestnikov could have made a play on the goal scorer and just didn't.

Sometimes that happens...sometimes you're thinking, "if my teammates come away with the puck then I can be ready to break it out" or "there's no way that puck is popping out of that scrum to this guy in front of me" and then things don't go the way you expect.
 
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DanielBrassard said:
They have been competitive on the scoreboard, which is why that is the sentiment.
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Yeah because Lundqvist stops everything. And any day he doesn't, it's because they're trapping it up and then they don't generate anything.

Same shit as it's been for 4 years now.

But they wanted this. They wanted their gutted roster so the FO that's never drafted elite talent can draft elite talent.
 
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Machinehead said:
Yeah because Lundqvist stops everything. And any day he doesn't, it's because they're trapping it up and then they don't generate anything.

Same **** as it's been for 4 years now.

But they wanted this. They wanted their gutted roster so the FO that's never drafted elite talent can draft elite talent.
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This is their best opportunity to draft elite talent
 
Machinehead said:
They've never done it, so I don't trust them to do it, regardless of how high the picks are.

I don't trust this team with any pick other than Hughes.
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Except where you draft really does matter and going without a first round pick for four years really does not help when trying to bring in elite talent.
 
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DanielBrassard said:
I know it's only 5 games, but this team might be a worse possession team than last season, which is amazing.
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I think a couple of bad games are really tilting the scales, right? Always hard to decipher what's real and what's fake in these small samples.

It's definitely not an encouraging start, that's for sure.

I said in another spot that they have a built in excuse for today's game from the penalty calls, but the reality is, we've been outattempted in every game but the Buffalo game so far this season (this is all situations bc I'm just looking at my post-game dumps and that's an all situations viz). Nat Stat Trick confirms we've been outattempted 5v5 every game but the Buffalo game.

Not ideal.
 
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silverfish said:
I think a couple of bad games are really tilting the scales, right? Always hard to decipher what's real and what's fake in these small samples.

It's definitely not an encouraging start, that's for sure.

I said in another spot that they have a built in excuse for today's game from the penalty calls, but the reality is, we've been outattempted in every game but the Buffalo game so far this season (this is all situations bc I'm just looking at my post-game dumps and that's an all situations viz). Nat Stat Trick confirms we've been outattempted 5v5 every game but the Buffalo game.

Not ideal.
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It's very early obviously, you are right about that. Things can change quickly and maybe the team just needs to become more familiar with the system and so on. But I just don't see them doing the things that lead to playing a possession brand of hockey. Part of it is personnel, especially when you have the amount of bums we do on defense, but the lack of talent up-front may be more of a problem than I even thought.
 
We should have listened to the analytics and fired AV and started the rebuild the first time we finished near the bottom in 15-16.
 
Yeah, I'm going to side on the idea that it's a personnel issue on top of a total change in systems. With a defense this bad, NYR will get caved no matter what they do, even if it's correct.
 
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That being said, it'll still be interesting how this team looks through the eyes of analytics. On Tierney's charts, I fully expect Bad/Fun for the entire season.
 
The team has been a possession blackhole for a few seasons and they still managed to make the playoffs in all but the last. So long as Lundqvist is playing well they always have a shot to be a bubble team, which is why I do not see this team finishing bottom 5. Lundqvist would have to implode or get injured for that to happen. I mean, quite frankly who gives a f*** about their possession metrics, especially this year of all years. Let's see what happens in 2 seasons when the team is made up of mostly drafted talent, and trade acquisitions. If the foundation they've built sucks a few years from now, then get your pitchforks out.

Also, no one really gives a shit whether or not you have faith in this rebuild, it is happening regardless of what anyone here thinks about it or the people behind it. Just hope they somehow manage to target the right players whether by accident or intentional. There's a lot of promising players in the system already and we have no clue what they'll look like together on the ice when they start breaking out.
 
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Blue Blooded said:
And every game apart from the already abysmal Carolina game gets significantly worse when you adjust for score and venue. NYR@BUF becomes a 50.11% game.

Games - Natural Stat Trick
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It’s too early for me to worry yet about the philosophy or system.

Edmonton is the only one that makes me pause a bit. SJ and Nashville are arguably the top 5 teams. Carolina are corsi gods and might be coming around finally.

Edmonton and Buffalo are the ones I would expect to keep pace with or exceed.

Not worried. (Yet)
 
Ail said:
The team has been a possession blackhole for a few seasons and they still managed to make the playoffs in all but the last. So long as Lundqvist is playing well they always have a shot to be a bubble team, which is why I do not see this team finishing bottom 5. Lundqvist would have to implode or get injured for that to happen. I mean, quite frankly who gives a **** about their possession metrics, especially this year of all years. Let's see what happens in 2 seasons when the team is made up of mostly drafted talent, and trade acquisitions. If the foundation they've built sucks a few years from now, then get your pitchforks out.

Also, no one really gives a **** whether or not you have faith in this rebuild, it is happening regardless of what anyone here thinks about it or the people behind it. Just hope they somehow manage to target the right players whether by accident or intentional. There's a lot of promising players in the system already and we have no clue what they'll look like together on the ice when they start breaking out.
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Took me a really long time to figure out how to respond to this post without starting a war where the mods would have to come in and delete pages of posts. I'm uncertain what the end-game of coming into the advanced stats thread and proclaiming who gives a **** about their possession metrics was, but, I don't know. I'd surmise the people who post in this thread care?

And the reason I think they're still important this year is because we need to know who is a driver, who is a passenger. Whose raw point totals are hindered by lack of ice time. Whose raw point totals are carried by too much ice time. It's important to know what happens to players when they're not on the ice with Filip, Howden, any of the young d-men. Do they get better or worse away from them?

When you look back at some of the sort of quiet, but very productive players in the NHL today, and think to yourself: "Man, how did we miss that guy". You can almost certainly track it back to some of their early seasons, see that they were shot attempt drivers, see that they were recording points at a good pace, but not necessarily getting the ice time. See that the writing was on the wall, but had missed it.

That's why I care about advanced stats this season, and every season. You are allowed to feel differently.
 
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