The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VIII:

[Gluten Free Breadman]

Unfortunately, everything Lias does will be compared to the subset of players that people wanted drafted instead of him. If he's better than Mittelstadt and Tippett? Great. If he's not? Well, that sucks.

I don't think this necessarily falls into 'drafting in hindsight' like a lot of people like to do, because these were the names being floated of players that maybe should've been picked in his stead.

Like the way I view it is as such... I'm always going to believe that Lias wasn't the best pick at 7. You won't catch me changing my tune on that. At the time of the draft, he was a bad pick, IMO. Even if he becomes the best player of the draft class, I'm still going to say it was a bad pick because at the time, it was. I understand that doesn't really make any sense, but it's the same thing as evaluating trades. You evaluate trades when they happen, not five years later. Everything has a set value at the time of the trade.

Another example is that Lindbom, in this year's draft, was a ****ing disgraceful pick. Disgraceful. I don't care if he becomes the next Hasek. An absolute **** pick. No matter what.

Well you can have multiple opinions about the pick, one when he was drafted and one after you know what he developed into. Those opinions can be completely separate and even opposite and it is okay.

 

[silverfish]

Well you can have multiple opinions about the pick, one when he was drafted and one after you know what he developed into. Those opinions can be completely separate and even opposite and it is okay.

Sounds to me like an opinion about the pick and an opinion about the player

 

[Gluten Free Breadman]

Sounds to me like an opinion about the pick and an opinion about the player

Sorry to bring this back up from Friday, I was just catching up reading now.

I think we are in agreement. Picks and Players are separate. I like how you put it

I think everyone had to comment on that original post because it seemed like you were saying that you would always hate the pick AND the player. Thank you for clarifying that they should be separated.

 

[silverfish]

Sorry to bring this back up from Friday, I was just catching up reading now.

I think we are in agreement. Picks and Players are separate. I like how you put it

I think everyone had to comment on that original post because it seemed like you were saying that you would always hate the pick AND the player. Thank you for clarifying that they should be separated.

Dislike selecting Lias Andersson at 7OA. Happy with the way Lias Andersson is progressing thus far.

I get why people have a hard time with my gorilla brain, but that's how it works.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Dislike selecting Lias Andersson at 7OA. Happy with the way Lias Andersson is progressing thus far.

I get why people have a hard time with my gorilla brain, but that's how it works.

See I think this is fair. I hadn't seen you mention being happy with Lias, which is why I’ve been a bit confused by your criticisms.

 

[Blue Blooded]

Dislike selecting Lias Andersson at 7OA. Happy with the way Lias Andersson is progressing thus far.

I get why people have a hard time with my gorilla brain, but that's how it works.

Sorry, I really can't let this go and it's only because you are a numbers guy - because Lias has produced incredibly well and the "low upside" takes seem to stem from his non-flashy style (or Pierre McGuire's lazy Fast/Lindberg comparison).

Lias put up better numbers than William Nylander in their D-1 and D seasons, was Nylander a low-upside pick?

This isn't a Jake Virtanen or Pavel Zacha pick we're talking about. The closest recent comparable I can find is Matthew Tkachuk in terms of "winning mentality" and actual production, though Tkachuk's numbers were even better than Lias' (NHLe of .3091 vs .2638). 2017 was just a really weak draft year looking at the eligible players' pre-draft seasons, I would probably have taken Matt Tkachuk 1OA if he was temporally shifted two years.

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

If you would have taken Tkachuk 1OA 2017 then you forget about Elias Pettersson, a.k.a best drafted prospect in hockey right now only rivalled by Dahlin ,

When it comes to Pionk… The sample size and system makes me think twice before judging him harshly, i'm not saying he's good or bad or anything really. I'm saying i want to see him in (hopefully) a good or atleast not bad system and then i'll judge him.

He came into a broken system and he came in at a time where the team was starting to give up on the season aswell, everything was broken.

 

[Blue Blooded]

If you would have taken Tkachuk 1OA 2017 then you forget about Elias Pettersson, a.k.a best drafted prospect in hockey right now only rivalled by Dahlin ,

When it comes to Pionk… The sample size and system makes me think twice before judging him harshly, i'm not saying he's good or bad or anything really. I'm saying i want to see him in (hopefully) a good or atleast not bad system and then i'll judge him.

He came into a broken system and he came in at a time where the team was starting to give up on the season aswell, everything was broken.

Pettersson is looking like the better prospect now, but going in to the draft Tkachuk's pre-draft year was a lot better than Pettersson's.

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

Pettersson is looking like the better prospect now, but going in to the draft Tkachuk's pre-draft year was a lot better than Pettersson's.

I disagree, Pettersson dominated Allsvenskan which is a much better league then it gets credit for. He was the best prospect pre draft and he's the best prospect now from that draft class.

 

[Blue Blooded]

I disagree, Pettersson dominated Allsvenskan which is a much better league then it gets credit for. He was the best prospect pre draft and he's the best prospect now from that draft class.

It's tough to say. Pettersson did put up the best pre-draft season in Allsvenskan ever (Filip Forsberg's is 2nd) but his NHLe is significantly below Tkachuks's (0.2716 vs 0.3091), who put up a better draft season (in terms of PPG) in the OHL than Tavares, Hall, Stamkos, Seguin etc...

Maybe NHLe underrates Allsvenskan, but I think Tkachuk's season is significantly enough ahead to have me pick him.

 

[Mac n Gs]

I definitely think that Allsvenskan gets overrated. It's also important to remember that Tkachuk was playing with Dvorak and Marner that year, so the gaudy numbers are easily explained. I still think he was a great prospect for the USDP and he is a great player for Calgary, but I never thought those juniors numbers would be reflected in his NHL scoring.

He'll make his career as a steady 25-25 guy with great underlying numbers and agitation skill. I'm expecting him to have two big scoring years this season and next before returning back to his usual 25-25 play.

 

[Blue Blooded]

I definitely think that Allsvenskan gets overrated. It's also important to remember that Tkachuk was playing with Dvorak and Marner that year, so the gaudy numbers are easily explained. I still think he was a great prospect for the USDP and he is a great player for Calgary, but I never thought those juniors numbers would be reflected in his NHL scoring.

He'll make his career as a steady 25-25 guy with great underlying numbers and agitation skill. I'm expecting him to have two big scoring years this season and next before returning back to his usual 25-25 play.

I had somehow forgotten that he played with Marner (Dvorak was definitely a passenger), which is one of the few things that can explain away numbers that gaudy. I formally retract my previous statement.

 

[silverfish]

Sorry, I really can't let this go and it's only because you are a numbers guy - because Lias has produced incredibly well and the "low upside" takes seem to stem from his non-flashy style (or Pierre McGuire's lazy Fast/Lindberg comparison).

Lias put up better numbers than William Nylander in their D-1 and D seasons, was Nylander a low-upside pick?

This isn't a Jake Virtanen or Pavel Zacha pick we're talking about. The closest recent comparable I can find is Matthew Tkachuk in terms of "winning mentality" and actual production, though Tkachuk's numbers were even better than Lias' (NHLe of .3091 vs .2638). 2017 was just a really weak draft year looking at the eligible players' pre-draft seasons, I would probably have taken Matt Tkachuk 1OA if he was temporally shifted two years.

I'd have been happier with other players at 7OA than I was with Lias. That's really all.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

I had somehow forgotten that he played with Marner (Dvorak was definitely a passenger), which is one of the few things that can explain away numbers that gaudy. I formally retract my previous statement.

Do you have Brady Tkachuk’s NHLe?

 

[Blue Blooded]

Do you have Brady Tkachuk’s NHLe?

---THIS POST REFERS TO MATTHEW TKACHUK---

0.3091. It's the eighth highest in a pre-draft season since 2012-13 behind Matthews*, Barkov, McDavid, E. Lindholm, Laine, Marner and Lehkonen. Dahlin (!) is 9th and Eichel is 10th. EP is 13th, Kravtsov is 16th and Lias is 22nd.

*Matthews gets an asterisk for being 19 throughout his pre-draft season.

Edit: I misread and posted the stats for the wrong Tkachuk

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

0.3091. It's the eighth highest in a pre-draft season since 2012-13 behind Matthews*, Barkov, McDavid, E. Lindholm, Laine, Marner and Lehkonen. Dahlin (!) is 9th and Eichel is 10th. EP is 13th, Kravtsov is 16th and Lias is 22nd.

*Matthews gets an asterisk for being 19 throughout his pre-draft season.

That’s honestly shocking to me

 

[Blue Blooded]

That’s honestly shocking to me

Sorry, I misread. I posted Matt Tkachuk's NHLe.

Brady had a 0.1326

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Sorry, I misread. I posted Matt Tkachuk's NHLe.

Brady had a 0.1326

No worries, I don’t know everything that goes into the NHLe calculations, so on one hand I was wondering what would make his season better than a guy like Quinn Hughes, and then on the other hand I was worried that I spent large chunks of time arguing with people that Matt is the Tkachuk brother that’s actually really good at hockey and Brady is just the intangibles brother for nothing

 

[silverfish]

Sorry, I misread. I posted Matt Tkachuk's NHLe.

Brady had a 0.1326

This makes a lot more sense.

 

[aufheben]

Sorry, I really can't let this go and it's only because you are a numbers guy - because Lias has produced incredibly well and the "low upside" takes seem to stem from his non-flashy style (or Pierre McGuire's lazy Fast/Lindberg comparison)

That was one of the laziest and embarrassing comparisons I’ve ever seen presented by an analyst. Definitely contributed to all the post draft nonsense last summer. Comparing players based on nationality is such weak sauce.

If you would have taken Tkachuk 1OA 2017 then you forget about Elias Pettersson, a.k.a best drafted prospect in hockey right now only rivalled by Dahlin ,

When it comes to Pionk… The sample size and system makes me think twice before judging him harshly, i'm not saying he's good or bad or anything really. I'm saying i want to see him in (hopefully) a good or atleast not bad system and then i'll judge him.

He came into a broken system and he came in at a time where the team was starting to give up on the season aswell, everything was broken.

The harsh judgement is largely a response to how much he is being celebrated by others, praised over DeAngelo, etc.

 

[silverfish]

That was one of the laziest and embarrassing comparisons I’ve ever seen presented by an analyst. Definitely contributed to all the post draft nonsense last summer. Comparing players based on nationality is such weak sauce.

You'll find that when analysts and fans alike make their "this guy reminds me of this guy" declarations, more often than not, it's people from the same country. As if you can't compare the way a US kid plays to the way a Swedish kid plays

So really, what happened there is that Pierre had it in his head that the Rangers were picking, they picked a Swede, and he basically thought to himself: who are Swedish skaters on the Rangers? And that's the way a narrative is born.

Similarity scores to the rescue!

 

[Mac n Gs]

You'll find that when analysts and fans alike make their "this guy reminds me of this guy" declarations, more often than not, it's people from the same country. As if you can't compare the way a US kid plays to the way a Swedish kid plays

So really, what happened there is that Pierre had it in his head that the Rangers were picking, they picked a Swede, and he basically thought to himself: who are Swedish skaters on the Rangers? And that's the way a narrative is born.

Similarity scores to the rescue!

Can you run it for Lias yet or do you need more data? I want to see it just for shits n gigs

 

[silverfish]

Can you run it for Lias yet or do you need more data? I want to see it just for ****s n gigs

Definitely need more data. I'm only sophisticated enough to use NHL data, so running it for him on 80 minutes of 5v5 data would do way more harm than good.

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

It's tough to say. Pettersson did put up the best pre-draft season in Allsvenskan ever (Filip Forsberg's is 2nd) but his NHLe is significantly below Tkachuks's (0.2716 vs 0.3091), who put up a better draft season (in terms of PPG) in the OHL than Tavares, Hall, Stamkos, Seguin etc...

Maybe NHLe underrates Allsvenskan, but I think Tkachuk's season is significantly enough ahead to have me pick him.

Depends what NHLe value you use. Elias Pettersson looks better using Mannys model for example.

Worth noting that Elias didn't play with Marner-Dvorak too

 

[Blue Blooded]

Depends what NHLe value you use. Elias Pettersson looks better using Mannys model for example.

Worth noting that Elias didn't play with Marner-Dvorak too

I used Manny's NHLe model to calculate their respective NHLe:s (Tkachuk 0.3091, EP 0.2716). But as I said, I had forgotten to account for Marner (like you have to account for Patrick Kane with Sam Gagner's pre-draft season). I don't think Dvorak was a factor at all (<0.5 PPG in his pre-draft season before getting to play with Marner and Tkachuk, subsequently never impressed at all in the NHL).