The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VII: An Ode to the Sanity of Silverfish

[Hunter Gathers]

I didn't accuse you of hating all stats. I accused you of appealing to authority and falling back on "well I've seen him play."

I think you can understand that we're all sick of reading that and why some of us choose to just hide in here at this point. I wasn't upset because you disagreed. I was upset because you brought tired old arguments up that as @silverfish said, are completely subjective and lead to headaches. Call it a "safe space" or whatever if you want, but we like to be objective in here. It's a numbers thread. It exists to avoid conjecture.

I got a little fired up and I was being harsh. For that, I apologize. All I'm saying is, it would be appreciated if you set aside things like character and the opinions of GM's because we come here to NOT talk about that.

All is well, man. You know I forgive and forget. The problem from my end is that I've seen you hot take it up this offseason, my dude. You were going off on any number of things and it was just getting insane. So chalk it all up to pent up shit from both of us. We are both passionate and hard headed at times.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

But how do you know if the player has those intangibles before you sign them and have them on your team? If they can't be measured would you not just be better off going for the players that are the best on the ice and then when you get them in your locker room you'll see how they will mesh together? Obviously there are some known exceptions of players with bad reputations and such like Voynoy.

I'm fairly sure that teams have telephone calls, Skype, etc. to go along with even things like physical meetings and such.

Like an interview with the normal world, you make your best educated guess on it.

Seriously, just think of it that way. Are you going to hire a guy based SOLELY on his resume or are you at least going to see if the person isn't a complete and total asshole? I simply cannot imagine you'd just pass on interviewing someone and hire based only on what their accomplishments are.

 

[SA16]

I'm fairly sure that teams have telephone calls, Skype, etc. to go along with even things like physical meetings and such.

Like an interview with the normal world, you make your best educated guess on it.

Seriously, just think of it that way. Are you going to hire a guy based SOLELY on his resume or are you at least going to see if the person isn't a complete and total *******? I simply cannot imagine you'd just pass on interviewing someone and hire based only on what their accomplishments are.

While true people aren't exactly their real selves in interviews. Everyone goes their, dressed in a suit, and basically puts on an act to try and impress the person that is trying to hire them. And meeting with your boss isn't really the same thing as how you will get along with your coworkers/teammates. So yea, if you were interested in hiring someone and he came in shorts and a t-shirt and was acting entitled and rude he wouldn't get the job but who actually does that?

 

[Machinehead]

All is well, man. You know I forgive and forget. The problem from my end is that I've seen you hot take it up this offseason, my dude. You were going off on any number of things and it was just getting insane. So chalk it all up to pent up **** from both of us. We are both passionate and hard headed at times.

I'm just scared to be quite honest. We're embarking on something huge here. A failed rebuild is maybe a decade of unwatchable hockey. Being a Rangers fan, I've learned to be aware of the worst case scenario.

A lot of people trust Gorton because he isn't Sather. I don't trust Gorton. I think even if you eliminate the grey area and go just by the date he was officially "hired," he's been a hit here and a miss there. Most people are excited about a rebuild. I see it as a massive unknown that could devastate this franchise if it fails. And maybe I'm wrong, but there just seems to be a "Gorton won't fail" mentality on here and I just don't see where that trust comes from.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

While true people aren't exactly their real selves in interviews. Everyone goes their, dressed in a suit, and basically puts on an act to try and impress the person that is trying to hire them. And meeting with your boss isn't really the same thing as how you will get along with your coworkers/teammates. So yea, if you were interested in hiring someone and he came in shorts and a t-shirt and was acting entitled and rude he wouldn't get the job but who actually does that?

I dunno, I think that's pretty easy to see through. Perhaps I've just done so many interviews with people over the years that I simply no longer engage in puffery (and I've interviewed so many folks that I also tend to be able to sense it). I tend to think that the folks who come off as normal and real are being themselves. But there's other ways to gauge this and usually you do it by having that person meet with either the entire group (if it's smaller -- which is what we do) or with a selection of folks in the group representing different areas of age and seniority.

You're never going to be perfect with it, but the same could be said about anything, really.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

I'm just scared to be quite honest. We're embarking on something huge here. A failed rebuild is maybe a decade of unwatchable hockey. Being a Rangers fan, I've learned to be aware of the worst case scenario.

A lot of people trust Gorton because he isn't Sather. I don't trust Gorton. I think even if you eliminate the grey area and go just by the date he was officially "hired," he's been a hit here and a miss there. Most people are excited about a rebuild. I see it as a massive unknown that could devastate this franchise if it fails. And maybe I'm wrong, but there just seems to be a "Gorton won't fail" mentality on here and I just don't see where that trust comes from.

I don't trust anyone, let alone Gorton. What I do like is that we seemingly aren't just signing people for the sake of it like Sather did (Sather and Lou Lams both did that shit and Lou is still doing it). Let's see where it goes, but as a fan, that has to be encouraging.

 

[Leetch3]

I'm just scared to be quite honest. We're embarking on something huge here. A failed rebuild is maybe a decade of unwatchable hockey. Being a Rangers fan, I've learned to be aware of the worst case scenario.

A lot of people trust Gorton because he isn't Sather. I don't trust Gorton. I think even if you eliminate the grey area and go just by the date he was officially "hired," he's been a hit here and a miss there. Most people are excited about a rebuild. I see it as a massive unknown that could devastate this franchise if it fails. And maybe I'm wrong, but there just seems to be a "Gorton won't fail" mentality on here and I just don't see where that trust comes from.

you are being a bit overdramatic. we don't overpay for a bunch of 4th liners for 1 whole day and we are now doomed for 10 years. The worst case scenario is that in a year or 2 they will start signing players again but without the foundation needed and will go back to being the pretenders that they will always be and you can get all existed about how they are going for it and trying to win again as they get bounced in the first round ever year

 

[Krams]

Let's shift focus back towards advanced stats

 

[silverfish]

Let's shift focus back towards advanced stats

One more plea to rename this thread: Advanced Stats, Hockey Theory and Economics

 

[Leetch3]

to get back on topic sort of...when it comes to players outside of the nhl, which leagues do the best job in providing advanced stats on a regular basis? and which leagues are essentially worthless because the sample size is non-existent or not worth anaylzing?

 

[silverfish]

to get back on topic sort of...when it comes to players outside of the nhl, which leagues do the best job in providing advanced stats on a regular basis? and which leagues are essentially worthless because the sample size is non-existent or not worth anaylzing?

Feel ilke @ManUtdTobbe has a source for SEL numbers. I've never been able to find AHL metrics which is insanely annoying.

I get like five pbp sheets a season from the NWHL that I translate to fancystats, but I know that's not what you're asking

 

[SnowblindNYR]

That's kind of how intangibles work, though. They are impossible to actually value. I think the ideal player is a guy with good leadership capabilities to go along with a high skill level. The bold is how you actually build a team, though. Which is kind of the point that @SnowblindNYR and I were trying to get at (which I thought was a basic understanding of how life worked). You need to be careful in constructing a group of people that are not only skilled, but have that gel and glue to hold it all together.

To me, it's impossible to actually answer since it's a nebulous question that will ebb and flow depending on the team, the make-up on the team, the age of the team, the success of the team, the maturity of the team, or any other characteristic you want to pick out of a hat.

I think this is where I'm closer to Machinehead than some people. I don't want to sacrifice much skill for "character". I either want a guy that's already good that has it or like a 3rd liner. I think what's more important than character is not having cancers in the locker room. So as long as there's neutral character I'm more or less fine. But if you have good players that have character and puts the team in the positive for it, all the better.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

So the rebuild is over if they get Karlsson right ? Lol

 

[Doctyl]

So the rebuild is over if they get Karlsson right ? Lol

Does he have nice graphs or something?

 

[Igor Shestyorkin]

Does he have nice graphs or something?

I think it runs more along the road of, why acquire the best defenseman in the league in the newborn stages of a rebuild.

Unless I'm misinterpreting.

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

Feel ilke @ManUtdTobbe has a source for SEL numbers. I've never been able to find AHL metrics which is insanely annoying.

I get like five pbp sheets a season from the NWHL that I translate to fancystats, but I know that's not what you're asking

I got a couple scout friends i ask for numbers on specific players, i don't have a full spread though :/
Allsvenskan was tracked for 1/3 of the season but then hockeynews stopped making the games public for whatever reason.

AHL.... I mean, they still have 360p streams for most teams sooooooo :/

 

[Hunter Gathers]

I think this is where I'm closer to Machinehead than some people. I don't want to sacrifice much skill for "character". I either want a guy that's already good that has it or like a 3rd liner. I think what's more important than character is not having cancers in the locker room. So as long as there's neutral character I'm more or less fine. But if you have good players that have character and puts the team in the positive for it, all the better.

Well, yeah. Sacrificing skill for a bunch of 4th liners is stupid. Does anyone actually argue for that other than AV?

The idea should be to find high skilled, high caliber people. I think that’s what the team is going for (the Miller pick is directly aiming at that).

Like, I don’t mind someone like Glass as a 13th or 14th forward. But you had a clown like AV using a pure locker room guy as an every day player. He clearly didn’t get the idea that a pure locker room dude isn’t going to provide jack shit on the ice nine times out of ten.

But I think the idea that we shouldn’t ever have true locker room guys as spare parts is as silly to me as suggesting that they should play every day. You need to find a happy medium. AV, ironically, ruined the concept of hard work since he rewarded an undeserving player with way more ice time than what was earned. AV was the worst.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

I think it runs more along the road of, why acquire the best defenseman in the league in the newborn stages of a rebuild.

Unless I'm misinterpreting.

I can’t wait until we get to the afterbirth phase of the rebuild.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

I'm just scared to be quite honest. We're embarking on something huge here. A failed rebuild is maybe a decade of unwatchable hockey. Being a Rangers fan, I've learned to be aware of the worst case scenario.

A lot of people trust Gorton because he isn't Sather. I don't trust Gorton. I think even if you eliminate the grey area and go just by the date he was officially "hired," he's been a hit here and a miss there. Most people are excited about a rebuild. I see it as a massive unknown that could devastate this franchise if it fails. And maybe I'm wrong, but there just seems to be a "Gorton won't fail" mentality on here and I just don't see where that trust comes from.

Legitimate question, dude. Would you have been OK handing out ANY of the multi-year deals handed out on July 1st?

 

[silverfish]

Legitimate question, dude. Would you have been OK handing out ANY of the multi-year deals handed out on July 1st?

I think this question needs more context. In terms of what?

OK with the current New York Rangers handing out these deals?
OK with market value that was received?

OK how?

 

[silverfish]

I'd blow up the rebuild immediately and trade for him.

 

[Igor Shestyorkin]

I can’t wait until we get to the afterbirth phase of the rebuild.

Yeah bro, gonna be fun.

 

[SA16]

I'd blow up the rebuild immediately and trade for him.

But we won't be good until he's 31-33 so we will just be wasting his best years.

 

[silverfish]

But we won't be good until he's 31-33 so we will just be wasting his best years.

Not sure if srs or mocking spec thread

 

[Hunter Gathers]

I'd blow up the rebuild immediately and trade for him.

Depending on the cost, I have no problem with getting him. He's a gamechanging franchise superstar.