The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VI: RIP To Our Databases

[silverfish]

I would take it

Somewhat of a rant:

tl;dr - **** the conventional NHL fourth line

I hate the way NHL teams continue to build their fourth lines. I was ecstatic last year when we started with the fourth line of combinations of Grabner, Jooris, Fast, Pirri, & Lindberg when healthy.

It's such a simple way to give yourself a competitive advantage. Most NHL teams continue to build fourth-lines the same way. "Character guys". Your guys like Matty Marts, who really have no business being on an NHL sheet of ice.

Look how much the game slows down when fourth-line players are on the ice:

Now imagine instead of icing a fourth line of plugs like Dejsardins, we ice a fourth line that can actually push play up the ice. These guys are available. Instead of bringing in plugs like Farnham and Dejsardins, and to a lesser extent, DD, why didn't we bring back Pirri? Why don't we sign Jagr? We didin't we PTO Winnik, or sign Vanek?

Because these guys aren't "fourth-liners". It's such a **** concept. That your fourth line needs to be able to "grind it out". **** that noise. Ice 12 good players.

Think of the competitive advantage you gain icing a fourth line with three guys who can push the pace against another teams slow the game down fourth line?

Instead, for arguments sake let's say our opening night fourth line is:

Dejsardins - DD - Puempel

What's a successful shift for this line? Not getting scored on? It doesn't make sense to me.

The same people who will tell you that Dejsardins is a good PTO are the people who will tell you that the only thing that matters in this league is goals. Who cares what the shot attempts are, what's the score? And yet, they'll be behind giving a PTO to a guy who had 1 point last year, and 13 the year before? And they'll tell you it's a good idea?

Now we're at the point where we're essentially sacrificing 7 minutes of 5v5 icetime a night on a line where we're hoping they don't get scored on, and if they do somehow find the back of the net, it's an incredible thing.

I'd rather ice four lines that can put the puck in the net at any time, it's expected they put the puck in the net. And if they can't do that, at the very least, drive the **** outta some shot attempts and xG. Pace.

Yeah, I'd go for a 900% increase in point totals from a fourth liner.

 

[Irishguy42]

Instead, for arguments sake let's say our opening night fourth line is:

Dejsardins - DD - Puempel

Please don't. I'm trying to have a good night.

 

[silverfish]

Please don't. I'm trying to have a good night.

Not to put this thread too close into becoming just another spec thread, but what's the alternative right now? Fast isn't starting the year on the opening night roster. Lindberg is gone. Where are we right now? If Miller is 3C and Andersson is in Sweden, where are we right now?

20-93-89
61-13-36
26-10-40
DD-DJ-12

Who did I miss?

 

[Irishguy42]

Not to put this thread too close into becoming just another spec thread, but what's the alternative right now? Fast isn't starting the year on the opening night roster. Lindberg is gone. Where are we right now? If Miller is 3C and Andersson is in Sweden, where are we right now?

20-93-89
61-13-36
26-10-40
DD-DJ-12

Who did I miss?

20-93-89
61-13-36
26-51-10
40-Nieves-12

Not ideal, but...

AV seems to like Nieves.



I'm probably not planning ahead for when Fast comes back.

But yes...no a Speculation thread.

 

[Machinehead]

I agree with your rant, Silverfish. 100%

Fourth lines should be your fourth best hockey line, not guys who necessarily do something different. Especially when that something different is muh grinding.

Nathan Gerbe should be in the NHL and it's a crime that he isn't because he's a fantastic fourth liner, but fourth liners can't be short because grinding.

But we don't have the options to make that right now, and it is what it is. Now if we get the point where Peumpel -who can score- is sitting BECAUSE of Desjardins, I'm right there with you.

Oh and I do think you're being a tad hard on Matt Martin. Sure, he doesn't produce any offense, but he's an elite shot suppressor for a fourth liner.

 

[Machinehead]

Bouncing off of that, the Pirri hate from Rangers fans drove me crazy.

"Doesn't add nuthin'!!"

He added 8 goals in 60 games and break-even possession. It's not much but it's more than what 90% of fourth liners in the league add.

 

[silverfish]

I agree with your rant, Silverfish. 100%

Fourth lines should be your fourth best hockey line, not guys who necessarily do something different. Especially when that something different is muh grinding.

Nathan Gerbe should be in the NHL and it's a crime that he isn't because he's a fantastic fourth liner, but fourth liners can't be short because grinding.

But we don't have the options to make that right now, and it is what it is. Now if we get the point where Peumpel -who can score- is sitting BECAUSE of Desjardins, I'm right there with you.

Oh and I do think you're being a tad hard on Matt Martin. Sure, he doesn't produce any offense, but he's an elite shot suppressor for a fourth liner.

Matty Marts was just the first 'character' guy that came to mind for me, but you're right.

Glad that we're on the same page here.

Bouncing off of that, the Pirri hate from Rangers fans drove me crazy.

"Doesn't add nuthin'!!"

He added 8 goals in 60 games and break-even possession. It's not much but it's more than what 90% of fourth liners in the league add.

And he was good on faceoffs. So weird

 

[Mac n Gs]

Glass-Malhotra-Cracknell GOAT 4th line don't @ me

 

[DanielBrassard]

Agreed with Silver and MH. Unfortunately we don't have the depth for that. Hoping we can pickup someone on waivers. Desjardins is just a useless piece.

 

[Mac n Gs]

THANK YOU BASED MANNY. Da GOAT

 

[silverfish]

We don't deserve Manny.

I really hope he gets hired soon, if that's what he wants.

 

[Mac n Gs]

We don't deserve Manny.

I really hope he gets hired soon, if that's what he wants.

Rongos pls

 

[silverfish]

No write-up on this yet outside of:

~50 = not great
~75 = still not great
~100 = average
~125 = very good
~150 = elite

<- accidental Jimmy
<- Kevin

Really surprised that Hayes's rookie season isn't much better. Will be interested to find out why in the write-up.

 

[Irishguy42]

It's also interesting that despite being the better Hayes brother, he is ranked lower by this.

 

[DanielBrassard]

It's also interesting that despite being the better Hayes brother, he is ranked lower by this.

Considering it takes into account corsi and that's it, not surprising.

 

[silverfish]

Last season's scraper is throwing me errors and I'm too lazy to diagnose, so, no charts from tonight's game. Utilize your usual sources. Here's the dataset I have...

 

[Kane One]

What's puck impact?

 

[Irishguy42]

What's puck impact?

Something that DTMAboutHeart is currently developing. Still in the infant phase, I think.

 

[Machinehead]

Miller at center forever

Kevin Hayes never

 

[silverfish]

Some of the TOI splits from last night are absurd.

Nash played 14:42, and only 5:08 of it was even strength TOI.

ITT: TOI is an advanced stat

 

[Machinehead]

Some of the TOI splits from last night are absurd.

Nash played 14:42, and only 5:08 of it was even strength TOI.

ITT: TOI is an advanced stat

AV gonna AV

 

[1Knee1T]

Sportsnet posted an article on Chayka.

 

[silverfish]

Sportsnet posted an article on Chayka.

You trade a fourth-liner for a 2nd pairing d-man and have the other team retain salary, you deserve a hell of a lot more than an article. Put a statue up for him, already. He's toying with every other GM in the league like it's nothing.

 

[Irishguy42]

You trade a fourth-liner for a 2nd pairing d-man and have the other team retain salary, you deserve a hell of a lot more than an article. Put a statue up for him, already. He's toying with every other GM in the league like it's nothing.

I'm behind what Chayka is doing, but if he's not getting results within the next 2-3 years, he'll be looked on as a fool. Not a genius.

Will be interesting to see what happens with the Yotes in the next few seasons.

 

[silverfish]

I'm behind what Chayka is doing, but if he's not getting results within the next 2-3 years, he'll be looked on as a fool. Not a genius.

Will be interesting to see what happens with the Yotes in the next few seasons.

Yes. A fool for not turning around the Coyotes in 4-5 years as the team's GM

I don't think there's a more improved team out here in one off-season than Arizona, and that's in large part to Chayka straight up demolishing other GMs in deals, backed by whatever methods there are to his 'madness'. I'd like to get everyone more focused on analyzing things in the 'now' rather than in the future. What's the point of analyzing something in the future when we know the answer? Just allows you to view things in hindsight, and never be wrong.