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The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VI: RIP To Our Databases

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The opposition doesn't generate shots vs our 4th line? Sign me up for that and let the top 9 carry the bulk of the scoring! Or would you rather have Tanner Glass back? You stat guys sure are difficult to please...
 
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Revel said:
The opposition doesn't generate shots vs our 4th line? Sign me up for that and let the top 9 carry the bulk of the scoring! Or would you rather have Tanner Glass back? You stat guys sure are difficult to please...
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It's like dealing with a gaggle of women.

Anyway, on a serious note what I am seeing from Carey says he is capable of playing a 4th line role in the NHL. I don't get watching that game and making him a point of contention. He's not even near the top of the list. He was fine. Yeah I know this isn't the eye test thread but if he's such a "passenger" than how come the advanced stats of some of the other notable AHL players AV falls in love with, are slightly north of atrocity, yet his isn't? Do not give me that bull shit that it's his line mates.
 
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Some Carey stats through 4 games:

Corsi For % = 55.77 (4th best on team if you don't count Cracknell's 1 game)
Fenwick For % = 58.54 (#1 Best on team if you don't count Cracknell's 1 game)
Shots For % 68.75 (#1 Best on team by 11% over 2nd best guy)
Scoring Chances For % 53.33 (5th Best on Team)

I get that he's a low volume guy, so there's not much going on in terms of sheer quantity of shots in either direction...but c'mon, this is the 4th line we're talking about. Have we forgotten the days of Tanner Glass literally creating Scoring opportunities for the opposition on a nightly basis? Have we become so spoiled that we expect our ragtag 4th line to be an offensive force?

BTW...DD's #s are terrible. He's not carrying Carey.
 
I hadn't visited it in ahwile, but NaturalStatTrick is better for me than Corsica. Uber fast loading times compared to Corsica....and player stats are updated much quicker after games.

Nothing against Manny, but NaturalStatTrick is all I need right now. Its awesome.
 
Revel, my point was that the numbers Carey has right now are unsustainable and skewed by his numbers last night. Seriously, just go check the game log. He was a 46.15 CF% player before last night's game. And go re-read what I wrote about him. I called him an AAAA guy that should be in Hartford. That's not an insult, it's just exactly what Carey is at this point in his NHL career. When we have Fast back, he shouldn't be in the lineup. Nothing I said is absurd or ludicrous, and to conflate that with a player of Tanner Glass' ilk who was literally one of the worst hockey players I've ever watched is completely ignorant of everything I've posted on these boards.

So long story short, yeah, I'm taking Vesey over Carey at this point. Vesey has been generating more high-danger chances than Carey and I guarantee that his high-volume tendency will start paying off once his shooting% equilibrates. Don't get all pissy because I disagreed with you.
 
Miamipuck said:
It's like dealing with a gaggle of women.

Anyway, on a serious note what I am seeing from Carey says he is capable of playing a 4th line role in the NHL. I don't get watching that game and making him a point of contention. He's not even near the top of the list. He was fine. Yeah I know this isn't the eye test thread but if he's such a "passenger" than how come the advanced stats of some of the other notable AHL players AV falls in love with, are slightly north of atrocity, yet his isn't? Do not give me that bull **** that it's his line mates.
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Carey has been fine. I don't know why he's such a hot topic right now. In the grand scheme of things, he's not important. The Rangers could certainly do better than him, and they could certainly do worse. I imagine when Fast is back and healthy, that Carey will be gone. So, who cares. You guys are getting up in arms about the team's 13F, and as usual, missing the forest for the trees.

re the bolded: because Alain Vigneault again and again proves he's a horrific at evaluating talent?
 
silverfish said:
Carey has been fine. I don't know why he's such a hot topic right now. In the grand scheme of things, he's not important. The Rangers could certainly do better than him, and they could certainly do worse. I imagine when Fast is back and healthy, that Carey will be gone. So, who cares. You guys are getting up in arms about the team's 13F, and as usual, missing the forest for the trees.

re the bolded: because Alain Vigneault again and again proves he's a horrific at evaluating talent?
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Carey is a hot topic because he doesn't move the needle in any direction. He just...is there. And some people don't like that.
 
I don’t know how it got so blown out of proportion. I said Chytil should be in the lineup over Carey and Fast should be once he’s healthy. The dude is a 4A player that should be in the AHL.

The Holden-Kampfer pairing last night was beyond stupid and go figure it’s the one that loses us the game.
 
How much of what is going down with our defense is tied to Ruff? Remember that he kept 8 D with Dallas for a good chunk of last season and the Rangers have done the same so far.

If AV was on the hot seat, would Ruff be the de facto replacement? That's a little frightening.
 


Kelly's Hockey Sense series is a good one. We really need live stats. We've plateaued for a while with these shot and expected goal stats.

Pretty sure Kelly has access to sportlogiq's stats which aren't publicly available only tweeted randomly when they fell like it.
 
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1Knee1T said:
How much of what is going down with our defense is tied to Ruff? Remember that he kept 8 D with Dallas for a good chunk of last season and the Rangers have done the same so far.

If AV was on the hot seat, would Ruff be the de facto replacement? That's a little frightening.
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Somehow forgot to include my main question when I posted this. Work distractions.

What are people's opinions on a Sutter hiring? Does his system fit our players? In theory, one would think that it would shore up up neutral zone problems a bit. I remember seeing a video breaking down LA's forechecking. I think it was from Jack Han. It was a thing of beauty.
 
1Knee1T said:
Somehow forgot to include my main question when I posted this. Work distractions.

What are people's opinions on a Sutter hiring? Does his system fit our players? In theory, one would think that it would shore up up neutral zone problems a bit. I remember seeing a video breaking down LA's forechecking. I think it was from Jack Han. It was a thing of beauty.
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The good thing about Sutter vs a lot of other coaches is that he doesn't have a system. Sutter is one of the few coaches who seemingly has the ability to change the way they want their team to play based on the players who he has at his disposal.

I find it hard to believe that Arniel or Ruff are not next in line though, if AV were to be canned.
 
silverfish said:
The good thing about Sutter vs a lot of other coaches is that he doesn't have a system. Sutter is one of the few coaches who seemingly has the ability to change the way they want their team to play based on the players who he has at his disposal.

I find it hard to believe that Arniel or Ruff are not next in line though, if AV were to be canned.
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Surely one of the things AV with struggles with the most.

Here is the Jack Han article, for those curious..
https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/03/27/the-shift-breaking-down-the-l-a-kings-secrets-to-success/
 
via Corsica.Hockey

There has been 1 season since 2007-2008. One. Where an AV coached team had a negative all situations xGA-GA, or, in English, where an AV coached team's goalies didn't save more goals than they were expected to save. That season was 2009-2010 in Vancouver, -8.39 GSAA. AV would come close to going negative one more time, VAN 2012-2013, coincidentally (not) the year he was fired.
 
silverfish said:
via Corsica.Hockey

There has been 1 season since 2007-2008. One. Where an AV coached team had a negative all situations xGA-GA, or, in English, where an AV coached team's goalies didn't save more goals than they were expected to save. That season was 2009-2010 in Vancouver, -8.39 GSAA. AV would come close to going negative one more time, VAN 2012-2013, coincidentally (not) the year he was fired.
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Not surprising.

And when the team generates shots/xG's at a rate that they did in 13-14 and when AV was in Vancouver, while you have elite goaltending it can carry you to a stanley cup final. But as the system's effectiveness has waned or the team just doesn't have the talent necessary to execute the system as best as possible you see what happens over the past few seasons
 
Saw something interesting while looking at corsica just now, anyone want to guess who the best team in xG/60 was from 2008-2009 to 2013 was?
 
DanielBrassard said:
Saw something interesting while looking at corsica just now, anyone want to guess who the best team in xG/60 was from 2008-2009 to 2013 was?
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I'm guessing Boston based only on prime Chara and Bergeron.

Edit: Rangers huh? Never would have guessed that. I'm guessing an awful PP was our downfall for most of those years.
 
silverfish said:
He wasn't. And with the data we have available, Renney was better. I did this a while ago...

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I remember you posting that now. And Vancouver under AV was barely a 50% xG team. His best season was 13-14, when we had 2 elite defenseman and arguably the deepest forward corps in the whole league.
 
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