Prospect Info: The 2026 NHL Draft First Round Thread - Part 4

[StreetHawk]

His trajectory from the biggest pusher of tiny little Russian forwards to the biggest pusher of no-talent coke machines has been absolutely hilarious.

Like I've said a few times, this is a guy who REALLY REALLY REALLY wants to be a scouting guru but just does not understand hockey or understand how to project players. He realized what he was doing previously was turning out really badly and now all he's done is do the polar opposite thing, and to me it feels like a purely reactionary change rather than something coming from any real understanding.

For this people, are they trying to match what will happen on draft night or are they doing their own analysis and determining who they think will be the best down the line (which is always going to be impacted by where they land and other factors).

Guess, that is the difference between doing a "Mock" vs a "Ranking". Mock is what you expect to occur, Rank is your assessment.

 

[Jerry the great]

Bjorck porn for the Viggo fans....

very thorough piece.

https://www.chriswhalenhockey.com/draft-profile-viggo-bjorck

 

[MS]

For this people, are they trying to match what will happen on draft night or are they doing their own analysis and determining who they think will be the best down the line (which is always going to be impacted by where they land and other factors).

Guess, that is the difference between doing a "Mock" vs a "Ranking". Mock is what you expect to occur, Rank is your assessment.

I absolutely get that and I very much appreciate people who don't think with the crowd and are willing to break consensus.

I just don't think that Pronman is breaking consensus with any real intelligence or insight.

 

[thecupismine]

His trajectory from the biggest pusher of tiny little Russian forwards to the biggest pusher of no-talent coke machines has been absolutely hilarious.

Like I've said a few times, this is a guy who REALLY REALLY REALLY wants to be a scouting guru but just does not understand hockey or understand how to project players. He realized what he was doing previously was turning out really badly and now all he's done is do the polar opposite thing, and to me it feels like a purely reactionary change rather than something coming from any real understanding.

To be fair, it's not like Mutryn & Pugachyov are terrible hockey players (I'd love it if we walked away with one), but the weighting here is just weird. After Belchetz at 12, there's two guys (Hermansson & Ruck) who's baseline projections are top 6 players until 45.

There's nothing wrong with liking a bunch of physical third line players who might have higher upside than that (I like Command + Hemming to beat out those projections), but man you most either HATE the potential skilled top 6 forwards in this class, or have something weird going on with your risk/reward weighting, to only have 2 from 13-44.

For this people, are they trying to match what will happen on draft night or are they doing their own analysis and determining who they think will be the best down the line (which is always going to be impacted by where they land and other factors).

Guess, that is the difference between doing a "Mock" vs a "Ranking". Mock is what you expect to occur, Rank is your assessment.

I like when Button does it, I can see the logic and he's had some bang on assessments over the years (Virtanen as a second round grade stands out). Scouching is someone on the other end where his top 10s would likely get him fired (imagine being Philly last year and taking Potter over Martone for example). I'd have to look through Pronman's in more detail over the years to have a realistic assessment on it.

 

[Vector]

Interesting, I’ve never seen his name on anyone’s list before but Pronman obviously thinks highly of him which is probably a mixed blessing.

I have him on my "Interesting Draft Prospect" spreadsheet. Elite Prospects ranks him 78th overall.

"Possessing one of the heaviest shots in the class, this big-bodied winger with projectable feet and physicality has the makings of a potential bottom-six NHLer."

 

[Vector]

For this people, are they trying to match what will happen on draft night or are they doing their own analysis and determining who they think will be the best down the line (which is always going to be impacted by where they land and other factors).

Guess, that is the difference between doing a "Mock" vs a "Ranking". Mock is what you expect to occur, Rank is your assessment.

I absolutely get that and I very much appreciate people who don't think with the crowd and are willing to break consensus.

I just don't think that Pronman is breaking consensus with any real intelligence or insight.

A big problem is that his writing has suffered has he's stopped forming his own opinions. A lot of his The Athletic articles are literal copy & pastes from his previous articles. Often he doesn't even update basic information. Other times there are incredibly short blurbs with information I would expect from Sam Cosentino.

 

[Jerry the great]

Interesting, I’ve never seen his name on anyone’s list before but Pronman obviously thinks highly of him which is probably a mixed blessing.

 

[MS]

To be fair, it's not like Mutryn & Pugachyov are terrible hockey players (I'd love it if we walked away with one), but the weighting here is just weird. After Belchetz at 12, there's two guys (Hermansson & Ruck) who's baseline projections are top 6 players until 45.

There's nothing wrong with liking a bunch of physical third line players who might have higher upside than that (I like Command + Hemming to beat out those projections), but man you most either HATE the potential skilled top 6 forwards in this class, or have something weird going on with your risk/reward weighting, to only have 2 from 13-44.

Yeah, this is where to me he's just blanket-rating players based on skillset/on-paper traits rather than actually scouting and projecting.

I tend to lean more toward bigger players in the current environment, too, but there will still be bigger players where I'm like 'nope!' and small skill guys I really like. This just feels like a continuation of 2013 Pronman where every 5'10 Russian was automatically amazing.

I like when Button does it, I can see the logic and he's had some bang on assessments over the years (Virtanen as a second round grade stands out). Scouching is someone on the other end where his top 10s would likely get him fired. I'd have to look through Pronman's in more detail over the years to have a realistic assessment on it.

Button's ratings are generally great and the closest thing we see to actual NHL scout rankings. He's too reactionary on small samples, but that's how the whole system works so it's still representative.

 

[Vector]

To be fair, it's not like Mutryn & Pugachyov are terrible hockey players (I'd love it if we walked away with one), but the weighting here is just weird. After Belchetz at 12, there's two guys (Hermansson & Ruck) who's baseline projections are top 6 players until 45.

There's nothing wrong with liking a bunch of physical third line players who might have higher upside than that (I like Command + Hemming to beat out those projections), but man you most either HATE the potential skilled top 6 forwards in this class, or have something weird going on with your risk/reward weighting, to only have 2 from 13-44.

The bolded sounds true, actually. In his interview yesterday, Cam Robinson said that a NHL scout director told him, semi-tongue in cheek, that he wished his team traded all their draft picks this season. It's just not a very highly thought of draft. From where I stand, it seems like the draft where you could potentially load up on physical bottom-six players with speed but have quite low offensive ceilings. I'm kind of looking at this draft for the Canucks as a small step in the right direction given the poor quality of the draft. If they can come away with a few of big, fast, mean players (after the 3rd of course) then that's a success.

I caution people not to throw their eggs all in one draft. Don't force it if the player profiles aren't there.

I like when Button does it, I can see the logic and he's had some bang on assessments over the years (Virtanen as a second round grade stands out). Scouching is someone on the other end where his top 10s would likely get him fired. I'd have to look through Pronman's in more detail over the years to have a realistic assessment on it.

For a couple of years, I was tracking various mock drafts and rankings and Pronman consistently graded out as the closest to how a draft shakes out. The problem is that he provided very little specific or interesting information about prospects.

 

[Jerry the great]

Cam Robinson said that a NHL scout director told him, semi-tongue in cheek, that he wished his team traded all their draft picks this season. It's just not a very highly thought of draft.

Pretty stunning considering what people said and thought less than a year ago....life sure comes at you fast!!

 

[StreetHawk]

The bolded sounds true, actually. In his interview yesterday, Cam Robinson said that a NHL scout director told him, semi-tongue in cheek, that he wished his team traded all their draft picks this season. It's just not a very highly thought of draft. From where I stand, it seems like the draft where you could potentially load up on physical bottom-six players with speed but have quite low offensive ceilings. I'm kind of looking at this draft for the Canucks as a small step in the right direction given the poor quality of the draft. If they can come away with a few of big, fast, mean players (after the 3rd of course) then that's a success.

I caution people not to throw their eggs all in one draft. Don't force it if the player profiles aren't there.

Sounds like a draft to build up the base/identify of being difficult to play against. More 3rd line guys with some size and speed (but need to use it).
If you're not happy that the higher skilled kids have the compete necessary when things get more difficult or when there are expectations. (ie. playoffs).

 

[Bgav]

Pretty stunning considering what people said and thought less than a year ago....life sure comes at you fast!!

Also wild since every draft no matter how bad has plenty of nhlers in it

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

I personally think years where teams and scouts view the draft as "weak" is an opportunity to acquire more picks for prices that would be lower than a "normal" or "exceptional" year.

For the Nucks and where they are at, this should 100% be the case for this year's draft.

 

[Zombotron]

Sounds like a draft to build up the base/identify of being difficult to play against.

Drance's recent article linking Vancouver to Alexander Command, Casey Mutryn and Maddox Dagenais would indicate that the org agrees with you

 

[thecupismine]

The bolded sounds true, actually. In his interview yesterday, Cam Robinson said that a NHL scout director told him, semi-tongue in cheek, that he wished his team traded all their draft picks this season. It's just not a very highly thought of draft. From where I stand, it seems like the draft where you could potentially load up on physical bottom-six players with speed but have quite low offensive ceilings. I'm kind of looking at this draft for the Canucks as a small step in the right direction given the poor quality of the draft. If they can come away with a few of big, fast, mean players (after the 3rd of course) then that's a success.

I caution people not to throw their eggs all in one draft. Don't force it if the player profiles aren't there.



For a couple of years, I was tracking various mock drafts and rankings and Pronman consistently graded out as the closest to how a draft shakes out. The problem is that he provided very little specific or interesting information about prospects.

I swear I hear some variation of this most years unless the draft is unbelievably stacked like 2015 or has multiple premium guys at the top like 2023.

For example, Pronman has called 2026, 2025, 2024, 2022, and 2021 below average classes. Is it really that likely that 5 out of the last 6 classes are below average? I find that unless there's some crazy elite talent at the top, a lot of evaluators default around the draft to calling it weak, as they're afraid to be the guy who was overzealous on their projections of a player.

The only time I remember a scout coming out and saying a class was good and that they were going to get the best player in the draft at 15 was Ottawa. It was a wild statement then...and then they drafted Karlsson and got 1700+ games from the rest of their picks which is crazy.

I think this class is perfecly average, outside of missing a truly premium player at a premium position at the top. I also think it leans to having more big, physical guys than usual, which isn't a bad thing. I just don't think it leans THAT hard into it to the degree that there's only two skilled forwards worthy of being ranked between 14-44.

 

[MS]

I swear I hear some variation of this most years unless the draft is unbelievably stacked like 2015 or has multiple premium guys at the top like 2023.

For example, Pronman has called 2026, 2025, 2024, 2022, and 2021 below average classes. Is it really that likely that 5 out of the last 6 classes are below average? I find that unless there's some crazy elite talent at the top, a lot of evaluators default around the draft to calling it weak, as they're afraid to be the guy who was overzealous on their projections of a player.

The only time I remember a scout coming out and saying a class was good and that they were going to get the best player in the draft at 15 was Ottawa. It was a wild statement then...and then they drafted Karlsson and got 1700+ games from the rest of their picks which is crazy.

I think this class is perfecly average, outside of missing a truly premium player at a premium position at the top. I also think it leans to having more big, physical guys than usual, which isn't a bad thing. I just don't think it leans THAT hard into it to the degree that there's only two skilled forwards worthy of being ranked between 14-44.

Ha, this was my comment on this exact thing ahead of last year's draft :

Absolutely.

I also hate the over-the-top 'weak draft' and 'strong draft' stuff.

Like, I've been following the draft closely for 30+ years. And literally every draft gets described as either a 'great draft!' or a 'terrible draft!'. And if you're in a 'terrible draft' year, then the next year is pretty much automatically a 'great draft', or vice versa. And if a draft has a superstar at the top of it, it's a 'great draft!' even if it actually isn't.

When it actually shakes out, of the last 30 drafts there are like 25 average drafts and 2 or 3 drafts either way that were outliers good and bad. Most drafts are pretty much the same.

The 2025 draft to me looks a bit short in the top 3-5 picks with fewer future superstar types than some years, but the middle/depth of the 1st actually looks pretty strong.

 

[Vector]

I swear I hear some variation of this most years unless the draft is unbelievably stacked like 2015 or has multiple premium guys at the top like 2023.

For example, Pronman has called 2026, 2025, 2024, 2022, and 2021 below average classes. Is it really that likely that 5 out of the last 6 classes are below average? I find that unless there's some crazy elite talent at the top, a lot of evaluators default around the draft to calling it weak, as they're afraid to be the guy who was overzealous on their projections of a player.

The only time I remember a scout coming out and saying a class was good and that they were going to get the best player in the draft at 15 was Ottawa. It was a wild statement then...and then they drafted Karlsson and got 1700+ games from the rest of their picks which is crazy.

I think this class is perfecly average, outside of missing a truly premium player at a premium position at the top. I also think it leans to having more big, physical guys than usual, which isn't a bad thing. I just don't think it leans THAT hard into it to the degree that there's only two skilled forwards worthy of being ranked between 14-44.

I think it will end up being a good draft for solid NHL role players but will lack the high end offensive skill most associate with a successful draft.

 

[SelltheTeamFrancesco]

I swear I hear some variation of this most years unless the draft is unbelievably stacked like 2015 or has multiple premium guys at the top like 2023.

For example, Pronman has called 2026, 2025, 2024, 2022, and 2021 below average classes. Is it really that likely that 5 out of the last 6 classes are below average? I find that unless there's some crazy elite talent at the top, a lot of evaluators default around the draft to calling it weak, as they're afraid to be the guy who was overzealous on their projections of a player.

The only time I remember a scout coming out and saying a class was good and that they were going to get the best player in the draft at 15 was Ottawa. It was a wild statement then...and then they drafted Karlsson and got 1700+ games from the rest of their picks which is crazy.

I think this class is perfecly average, outside of missing a truly premium player at a premium position at the top. I also think it leans to having more big, physical guys than usual, which isn't a bad thing. I just don't think it leans THAT hard into it to the degree that there's only two skilled forwards worthy of being ranked between 14-44.

Wait he called the 2024 class below average? That’s crazy I remember people being super hyped for that draft. I didn’t folow it that close myself because the Canucks were good and had no picks (good times). I just remember everyone calling it above average or one tier down from 2023.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/49011258/nhl-2026-draft-scouting-combine-top-prospects-players-testing-interviews-trades

Montreal are a bunch of asshats.

"The Canucks were generous with their restaurant budget. They also sat down with McKenna and Sault St. Marie Greyhounds defenseman Chase Reid."

Frankie spending some cash apparently.

Lots of good stuff. Some snippets:

"Lin added that potentially being selected by his hometown Canucks at No. 24 would be surreal, given that his family are die-hard fans. It is unlikely that Lin will be available at 24. A few scouts noted that Lin may wind up a top-five pick if he were a couple of inches taller, and he may still go in the top 10 if a team isn't concerned with his size."

"There is belief within scouting circles that Malte Gustafsson has the chance to be the best defensive defenseman in the draft. He has surpassed Alberts Smits on some team draft lists."

"Alexander Command's drive to be better than everyone was startling. During interviews, he told reporters he wanted to be better than anyone he plays against. He impressed teams and saw his stock rise this week, with some believing he could now go in the early teens."

"The Ruck brothers (Liam and Markus) were much leaner than many had hoped, with some noting they need to have a great summer and put on muscle. Markus Ruck stopped testing after his back flared up doing the vertical jump, heightening concerns about his ability to have the type of summer required for his development."

 

[StreetHawk]

Ha, this was my comment on this exact thing ahead of last year's draft :

Absolutely.

I recall Sat and others saying 2020 draft was stacked. Here we are 6 years later and is it?

2003 and 2015 are probably your outliers in terms of quality through round 1.

 

[Zombotron]

There is belief within scouting circles that Malte Gustafsson has the chance to be the best defensive defenseman in the draft. He has surpassed Alberts Smits on some team draft lists.

There were mixed feelings on Smits during interviews, with some teams feeling there was more arrogance than confidence. He's either going to be selected very high or could slide into the teens.

Xavier Villeneuve tested incredibly well, but his measurements at just under 5-11 have teams skeptical. Some noted he's a boom-or-bust guy ... with some noting he could be a top-20 pick and others saying he could go in the third round.

 

[Zombotron]

Alexander Command's drive to be better than everyone was startling. During interviews, he told reporters he wanted to be better than anyone he plays against. He impressed teams and saw his stock rise this week, with some believing he could now go in the early teens.

bummer for us

 

[thecupismine]

Wait he called the 2024 class below average? That’s crazy I remember people being super hyped for that draft. I didn’t folow it that close myself because the Canucks were good and had no picks (good times). I just remember everyone calling it above average or one tier down from 2023.

I’m mistaken, he called it average, but my overall point stands. Even then, with the exception of Celebrini at the top, I think this draft compares pretty similarly to 2024.

Lots of high end defensemen at the top (albeit 2024 had more offensive profiles to choose from), a small center rocketing up people’s boards (Catton), a couple skilled wingers (Demidov and Iginla) with very different profiles, and a guy without that many points who Pronman had at 7 that will probably go top 3 to a lot of fans chagrin (Senneke).

 

[Donuts]

3 stenberg
24 Malhotra
33 Carels
41 mckenna

 

[Bitz and Bites]

I think it will end up being a good draft for solid NHL role players but will lack the high end offensive skill most associate with a successful draft.

That’s how I feel as well. I think there will be 3-4 top line forwards but only 1 or 2 who are big point producers, same goes for the D, then several good middle six centers, wingers and second pair D, then a large group of bottom of the lineup players.
When it’s all said and done, this draft will probably look decent in terms of NHL games played but pretty low on overall point totals.