3% of the time in the last 10 years is almost never. And of those deals, one could argue that 2 of the 3 got bad value.
If Buffalo is sitting in the top 10 again, one can look at their history over the last 12 years and see where they may have rushed players - Risto and Mittelstadt come to mind, but for the most part, they've left guys have at least one more post-draft season before moving them up. Savoie is the last one and they left him in junior for two more season before using him in trade. Before that would be Quinn who had one junior and two AHL seasons before moving up. Cozens perhaps though his early play was warranted, despite current stagnation and regression. The left Power cook for a year, same with Reinhart going back even farther.
As an organization, under many different regimes, they've mostly erred on the side of caution. The mistakes were the bad Alex Nylander pick and rushing 2 guys because the GM who selected them was absolutely besotted with the guys. At least under Adams, they haven't really had him push one of his people into a position immediately.
In that 5-10 range, Ryabkin remains the most intriguing guy for me right now. I'm not sold that Bear has more skill than say Krebs - he works hard and that's great. But is the high-end offensive talent there? I'm not sure yet. Maybe it is.