Prospect Info: The 2024 NHL Entry Draft Thread

[henchman21]

Who would we be "over the moon" for to fall in our laps?

Celebrini

 

[BobRossColton]

Celebrini

Uhh didn't think I needed to add realistic to it.

 

[Perratrooper]

How’s Igor Chernyshov’s skating?

 

[henchman21]

How’s Igor Chernyshov’s skating?

Good, but won’t be a real strong suit or driving part of his game in the NHL.

 

[PAZ]

Buttons lists are always the most interesting to me because he's a true example of how wildly different one scouts list can be compared to the "consensus". He doesn't give a shit what everyone else thinks or what the consensus lists look like. He has his own evaluations and thats it.

It's a good example of why consensus lists are generally pretty dumb IMO. If people actually saw every single teams rankings they would all look so completely different.

I don't hate the consensus list, as it's usually based off polling professional scouts. It's a quick snapshot for those who don't follow prospects closely.

It's by no means the end all be all, but i'd rather know what the consensus list is rather than have to figure out what the best of the individual lists like Button's is. Team rankings will be very different, but overall consensus lists are usually the most accurate information of how prospects are viewed and is readily available to the public.

The problem is that people spew consensus lists as gospel, rather than taking it for what it is.

 

[BobRossColton]

Too much to hope nygard, helenius or jiricek fall into our lap.

 

[Chiarelli]

Individual lists are kinda useless. Give me approximate tiers - even better, do it by position.

 

[henchman21]

A problem I have with a number of internet lists, is they are the same list just regurgitated with slight tweaks over and over. Michkov is #2 because Michkov is #2 because Michkov is #2... therefore Michkov is #2. People form consensus off that, when it really isn't the case.

Teams rate players wildly differently. Each scout has preferences and many factors come into it. There is a rumored team that has Iggy 2.0 #2 on their draft board. I know of one that has Parascak in their top 10, and I also know one that doesn't have him in their top 90. Satan Jr is likely to go WAY higher than anybody really thinks. Becher should go in the 2nd easily despite being a 3rd year eligible. Stiga may go top 20. Now completely possible none of those thing happen just with how draft boards fall. When a team or two really likes a player, especially in a draft like this, you can throw consensus out the window.

 

[Balthazar]

Teams rate players wildly differently. Each scout has preferences and many factors come into it. There is a rumored team that has Iggy 2.0 #2 on their draft board.

Does it matter though if that team is drafting at like #23? That's why individual lists are useless (to us) like @Chiarelli said. Consensus isn't perfect but is more representative.

Bob's final list is pretty damn accurate most of the time

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I don't hate the consensus list, as it's usually based off polling professional scouts. It's a quick snapshot for those who don't follow prospects closely.

They don't actually provide good information at all and just leads to nonsense and bickering when a team drafts a player way higher than the "consensus" or a player starts falling say below the "consensus"

As an extreme example, Bob MacKenzie polls 10 different scouts when making his list.

Player A, who ends up ranked 15th on that list could easily have been ranked as the following on each of those 10 scouts lists:

3rd
4th
5th
5th
20th
20th
22nd
23rd
24th
26th

For an overall average of 15.0, yet not one scout has player A anywhere close to 15th. Four scouts see him as a Top 5 pick, while the other 6 scouts see the player as essentially not even Top 20.


Bob even talks about this in his most recent rankings and essentially says to take the list with a huge grain of salt.

Bob McKenzie's NHL Draft Ranking: An 'unpredictable ride' after Macklin Celebrini | TSN

Ten out of 10 NHL club team scouts surveyed in the past week by TSN have Macklin Celebrini as the undisputed No. 1 draft prospect. Beyond Celebrini, though? Buckle up.

www.google.com

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

A problem I have with a number of internet lists, is they are the same list just regurgitated with slight tweaks over and over. Michkov is #2 because Michkov is #2 because Michkov is #2... therefore Michkov is #2. People form consensus off that, when it really isn't the case.

Teams rate players wildly differently. Each scout has preferences and many factors come into it. There is a rumored team that has Iggy 2.0 #2 on their draft board. I know of one that has Parascak in their top 10, and I also know one that doesn't have him in their top 90. Satan Jr is likely to go WAY higher than anybody really thinks. Becher should go in the 2nd easily despite being a 3rd year eligible. Stiga may go top 20. Now completely possible none of those thing happen just with how draft boards fall. When a team or two really likes a player, especially in a draft like this, you can throw consensus out the window.

I feel like Avs fans should be the most comfortable and aware that scouts and head scouts have their preferences. The Avs just kept drafting "high character" players with no real notable skills - that's what Pracey seemed to love more than anything else.

 

[henchman21]

Does it matter though if that team is drafting at like #23? That's why individual lists are useless (to us) like @Chiarelli said. Consensus isn't perfect but is more representative.

Bob's final list is pretty damn accurate most of the time

That team is picking top 10.

I stated internet lists, not Bob's. Bob's is a polling of 10 scouts with different organizations. You get a general idea from different scouts on that, but the devil is in the details. Button was a scout for a long time. You basically get 1 of those perspectives and how they look. That said, even with Bob's you get some wild variability... just last year Simashev was 19th IIRC and went 6th. Cowan was late 2nd, went late 1st. Perrault was top 10 and went late 1st. Scouts see things differently and there is a lot of variability in that. Once you get outside of a few top players, things tend to get weird fast. Within rooms, scouts see prospects very differently.

An example last year... Stenberg who was drafted by the Blues was top 15 on their list. He had a 3rd round grade from Detroit.

All that said, I'm really talking about all the internet ones compiled into a consensus list (like EP and others do)... they don't mean anything. Guys who get labeled high tend to stay labeled high. Then if somebody catches traction, most of them change to what others think. There is a huge amount of groupthink on the internet side.

I feel like Avs fans should be the most comfortable and aware that scouts and head scouts have their preferences. The Avs just kept drafting "high character" players with no real notable skills - that's what Pracey seemed to love more than anything else.

That's pure PR with character on Pracey. Avs love to play up when the select guys with that good character label, but then they go and select guys with some rather questionable character. Pracey did this too.

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

That team is picking top 10.

I stated internet lists, not Bob's. Bob's is a polling of 10 scouts with different organizations. You get a general idea from different scouts on that, but the devil is in the details. Button was a scout for a long time. You basically get 1 of those perspectives and how they look. That said, even with Bob's you get some wild variability... just last year Simashev was 19th IIRC and went 6th. Cowan was late 2nd, went late 1st. Perrault was top 10 and went late 1st. Scouts see things differently and there is a lot of variability in that. Once you get outside of a few top players, things tend to get weird fast. Within rooms, scouts see prospects very differently.

An example last year... Stenberg who was drafted by the Blues was top 15 on their list. He had a 3rd round grade from Detroit.

All that said, I'm really talking about all the internet ones compiled into a consensus list (like EP and others do)... they don't mean anything. Guys who get labeled high tend to stay labeled high. Then if somebody catches traction, most of them change to what others think. There is a huge amount of groupthink on the internet side.



That's pure PR with character on Pracey. Avs love to play up when the select guys with that good character label, but then they go and select guys with some rather questionable character. Pracey did this too.

I think my gripe is with teams actually being terrible judges of what "good character" actually is. You get a Landeskog, but then you get guys like Siemens and Bleackley that were supposed to be these amazing character/leader types and it turns out...maybe not so much

 

[henchman21]

I think my gripe is with teams actually being terrible judges of what "good character" actually is. You get a Landeskog, but then you get guys like Siemens and Bleackley that were supposed to be these amazing character/leader types and it turns out...maybe not so much

And character means different things... alongside that somebody who is 17/18 is going to typically change a lot by the time they are 23-25. Some for the better, some for the worse. These are not fully developed humans.

 

[RockLobster]

And character means different things... alongside that somebody who is 17/18 is going to typically change a lot by the time they are 23-25. Some for the better, some for the worse. These are not fully developed humans.

I'm 38, soon to be 39, and I am not sure I'm a fully developed human.

Hell, when I started dating MrsRL, I was 32, and I was definitely not a fully developed human.

 

[Balthazar]

I think my gripe is with teams actually being terrible judges of what "good character" actually is. You get a Landeskog, but then you get guys like Siemens and Bleackley that were supposed to be these amazing character/leader types and it turns out...maybe not so much

Both Bleackley and Jost were supposed to have "Jonathan Toews" leadership.

 

[henchman21]

Both Bleackley and Jost were supposed to have "Jonathan Toews" leadership.

By that, you mean making fun of players for being raped?

 

[expatriatedtexan]

Drafting someone because of their character is absolutely stupid. It's definitely cool to skip someone because of their lack of character, but outside of that...character is one of the last things I could GAF about.

IQ, skating, shot...yes, I care heavily about these things. But I'm not giving bonus points to lesser talented players because they make their beds in the morning or attended Wednesday church services.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

I'm 38, soon to be 39, and I am not sure I'm a fully developed human.

Hell, when I started dating MrsRL, I was 32, and I was definitely not a fully developed human.

She was probably very pleased to know that even though they all say size doesn't matter.

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

Drafting someone because of their character is absolutely stupid. It's definitely cool to skip someone because of their lack of character, but outside of that...character is one of the last things I could GAF about.

IQ, skating, shot...yes, I care heavily about these things. But I'm not giving bonus points to lesser talented players because they make their beds in the morning or attended Wednesday church services.

Unless there's a long observation period and psychological analysis, you're not really getting a decent assessment of "character" anyways. Bleackley's one of the best examples, prior to the draft we heard how he was a good leader, worked hard, etc., etc., then after he gets drafted he shows up fat and out of shape, gets stripped of his captaincy, and just continued to get worse from there.

 

[PAZ]

They don't actually provide good information at all and just leads to nonsense and bickering when a team drafts a player way higher than the "consensus" or a player starts falling say below the "consensus"

As an extreme example, Bob MacKenzie polls 10 different scouts when making his list.

Player A, who ends up ranked 15th on that list could easily have been ranked as the following on each of those 10 scouts lists:

3rd
4th
5th
5th
20th
20th
22nd
23rd
24th
26th

For an overall average of 15.0, yet not one scout has player A anywhere close to 15th. Four scouts see him as a Top 5 pick, while the other 6 scouts see the player as essentially not even Top 20.


Bob even talks about this in his most recent rankings and essentially says to take the list with a huge grain of salt.

Bob McKenzie's NHL Draft Ranking: An 'unpredictable ride' after Macklin Celebrini | TSN

Ten out of 10 NHL club team scouts surveyed in the past week by TSN have Macklin Celebrini as the undisputed No. 1 draft prospect. Beyond Celebrini, though? Buckle up.

www.google.com

I guess my point is that the top 5-10 of most drafts are fairly accurate, with 1 or 2 outliers (Simashev, Seider, etc.), and ~25 of top 30 ranked players will still be drafted in the 1st. If we compare Mackenzie's final 2023 ranking to the actual draft, the majority of players went within ~5 picks of Bob's ranking.

It gives a nice overview, that's all. As for your point, I don't think the prospect being ranked 15th overall is a bad thing because they're a polarizing prospect.

 

[BaconNater]

By that, you mean making fun of players for being raped?

That story is of course one of the worst in hockey history but my goodness hearing the teammates made fun of him after it happened is devastating

 

[Alienblood]

That story is of course one of the worst in hockey history but my goodness hearing the teammates made fun of him after it happened is devastating

weird that he let it happen

 

[S E P H]

I'm still on the Veit Oswald bandwagon. He should have been a late-round selection last year and probably placed himself as a mid-tier selection this year with a very strong season against men in a really physical league. DEL isn't the best by any means, but from the ones I've watched, it is top 3 in physicality in Europe.

Veit Oswald - Stats, Contract, Salary & More

Eliteprospects.com hockey player profile of Veit Oswald, 2004-08-31 Landshut, GER Germany. Most recently in the DEL with EHC München. Complete player biography and stats.

www.eliteprospects.com

 

[LTCPain75]

I'm still on the Veit Oswald bandwagon. He should have been a late-round selection last year and probably placed himself as a mid-tier selection this year with a very strong season against men in a really physical league. DEL isn't the best by any means, but from the ones I've watched, it is top 3 in physicality in Europe.

Veit Oswald - Stats, Contract, Salary & More

Eliteprospects.com hockey player profile of Veit Oswald, 2004-08-31 Landshut, GER Germany. Most recently in the DEL with EHC München. Complete player biography and stats.

www.eliteprospects.com

With a 3rd or 4th round pick maybe. He's not even ranked in the top 100 skaters!