Prospect Info: The 2023 NHL Entry Draft Thread

[surixon]

Vesalainen is an interesting case. He was drafted as a skilled winger but the issue for him was he really wasn't able to translate his skill game to the smaller ice. I watched numerous Moose games and he really had a hard time creating space to use his shot or finding soft ice for someone to get him the puck to use his shot.

I think the org tried to shift gears and turn him into more of a grinding player when it became apparent he wouldn't be able to translate his finesse based game.

 

[DRW204]

Maybe.

It also sometimes feels like people here feel that prospects will automatically earn their opportunities in a game or two, while making zero errors and having an exclusively positive impact regardless of line-mates, matchups, playing time or game state.

My sense is that prospects are most likely to succeed short- and longterm when their opportunities are managed to provide them with some shelter, appropriate ice-time and support in terms of coaching then and after. We have examples of such development in 55, 44, 81, 27, 37 and more recently in Perfetti and Samberg who generally made the most of their chances with plenty of ups and downs before they dialled in, and Stanley who hasn't yet.

I really don't get the whole sink or swim or yer a bust narrative with prospects. It's a narrative that doesn't work anywhere else in life really, including with elite athletes at other levels -- why should it work in the NHL?

The Jets are fundamentally more reliant on their drafted prospects than nearly any other org in the league. If they aren't hitting with most of them and doing everything they can to turn them into legit NHLers, they're falling behind. That's not coddling -- it's smart development and better business.

so which prospect should've gotten more games? heinola was not good this year and got outplayed by copacabana among others, and there was little to no chance they would play him down the stretch as he was making mistakes all over this year, and the Jets were fighting for a PO spot. Not to mention this org appears to generally put vet over young player/prospect until an injury occurs.

 

[MardyBum]

I wonder who we draft this year at 18OA.

Vesalainen? Heinola? Copacabana?

 

[BoneDocUK]

so which prospect should've gotten more games? heinola was not good this year and got outplayed by copacabana among others, and there was little to no chance they would play him down the stretch as he was making mistakes all over this year, and the Jets were fighting for a PO spot. Not to mention this org appears to generally put vet over young player/prospect until an injury occurs. who are you suggesting should've played more?

I’m not suggesting anything about any particular prospect. My point is that prospect success depends on a multitude of factors not all of which are within a given prospect’s control, and that the Jets more than many teams need their prospects to succeed because as we all know they’re generally unable to make up for failures via FA signings.

I do think it’s disingenuous to argue that factors like playing time, quality of linemates / opposition, game state usage, etc., which we know are significant influences for players generally, somehow shouldn’t be factors for prospects.

Pionk played like crap for much of the season, and kept playing. Maybe the argument should be less about who deserves to play more and instead about who deserves to play less.

Heinola had some rough games and was pulled. Stanley had some rough games, and was pulled. Samberg had some rough games and was pulled. Pionk had most of a season of rough games and was never pulled, even at the end. You’re absolutely right to note that the org prefers to play vets over less experienced players until it can’t. But should it at this point with the D backlog it’s facing, that only gets worse this season with Chisholm becoming waiver-eligble?

Should Pionk have stayed in over Samberg / Stanley / Whoever during that long stretch of games where he seemed to be actively costing the team goals and even points? Did keeping him in at all costs because vet/ contract / beloved in the room help the team?

I‘m not advocating for any particular player. I do think that the Jets are likely behind the curve when it comes to development of young D vs forwards. Since JMo, we have… Samberg. That’s a long dry spell.

 

[DRW204]

I’m not suggesting anything about any particular prospect. My point is that prospect success depends on a multitude of factors not all of which are within a given prospect’s control, and that the Jets more than many teams need their prospects to succeed because as we all know they’re generally unable to make up for failures via FA signings.

I do think it’s disingenuous to argue that factors like playing time, quality of linemates / opposition, game state usage, etc., which we know are significant influences for players generally, somehow shouldn’t be factors for prospects.

Pionk played like crap for much of the season, and kept playing. Maybe the argument should be less about who deserves to play more and instead about who deserves to play less.

Heinola had some rough games and was pulled. Stanley had some rough games, and was pulled. Samberg had some rough games and was pulled. Pionk had most of a season of rough games and was never pulled, even at the end. You’re absolutely right to note that the org prefers to play vets over less experienced players until it can’t. But should it at this point with the D backlog it’s facing, that only gets worse this season with Chisholm becoming waiver-eligble?

Should Pionk have stayed in over Samberg / Stanley / Whoever during that long stretch of games where he seemed to be actively costing the team goals and even points? Did keeping him in at all costs because vet/ contract / beloved in the room help the team?

I‘m not advocating for any particular player. I do think that the Jets are likely behind the curve when it comes to development of young D vs forwards. Since JMo, we have… Samberg. That’s a long dry spell.

of course prospect success depends on multitude of factors. maybe i missed the post but whoever is saying environmental factors (linemates, toi, competition) has no influence is highly mistaken imo. the average NHL player is influenced by these things so a youngster would be too, probably even moreso.

love how you soften heinola "had some rough games" he costed this team GAs in his short stint and was god awful his last one. his GA rate at 5v5 was 4.05, way worse than Pionk's. i liked heinola a lot and his numbers are fantastic in the AHL but isn't showing much in the NHL. he could just be a v good AHL player or maybe moves on and breaks-out in another org. .

Pionk was no good this year and probably should've sat. but for who? if you're subbing a prospect like Heinola, sorry he's not much better. especially when this team was fighting for a PO spot, and heinola had done 0 to instill confidence in the NHL staff. they generally will always favor the vet or the player who has shown some viable NHL play which heinola has done none of that. frankly, i thought Copacabana played pretty well and maybe should've spelled in a bit more - however it seems like you're arguing for more prospects play (sorry if im projecting incorrectly) - and would not consider Copacabana a prospect.

 

[DRW204]

talking about defense drafting....

from the 2011-2019 drafts - 283 drafted defenseman have played 1+ game in the NHL to date, for a total of 52584 gp, or a current average of ~186gp per player up until this season (excludes Vegas)

there have been 10 drafted players that have suited up for the Jets tallying 1327gp, or 133gp/per player. id label 2 of those players good consistent top-4D (trouba, morrissey) the rest have been good 3rd pair D or worse so far.

gp is hardly the best indicator, but don't think ppg really is the best either for Dmen although the Jets actually rate slightly above average in PPG (NHL D avg is 0.33PPG vs 0.36 as Jets)

is this b/c of prospect quality? no chance in the lineup b/c of superior depth chart, or coaching? of course probably a mix of 3.

from 17-19 id say probably strong-depth chart. from that onward . not many of the prospect Dmen have stood out.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

"The fact that you think that Vesalainen got a fair shot due to playing a pair of games in the top 6 is the problem. A fair shot should look like 20-30 games, likely even more than that depending on the player"

OK - so one poster said that. Still not 'some' people. Just one.

 

[MelikeJets]

I know drafting BPA is the preferred method by most teams but what if you have a real need at another position and you are already stocked with BPA type players? Eg: BPA is a winger, you are stocked with wingers on roster and in minors, but need defense and one is ranked 2 or 3 positions later....do you take the d man instead? I think I would.
Thoughts?

 

[tbcwpg]

I know drafting BPA is the preferred method by most teams but what if you have a real need at another position and you are already stocked with BPA type players? Eg: BPA is a winger, you are stocked with wingers on roster and in minors, but need defense and one is ranked 2 or 3 positions later....do you take the d man instead? I think I would.
Thoughts?

It depends on the gap in talent between those players. Do you turn down a projected top 6 W for a number 4 D? Probably not.

 

[DRW204]

I know drafting BPA is the preferred method by most teams but what if you have a real need at another position and you are already stocked with BPA type players? Eg: BPA is a winger, you are stocked with wingers on roster and in minors, but need defense and one is ranked 2 or 3 positions later....do you take the d man instead? I think I would.
Thoughts?

tough to say. i generally lean toward best-prospect available. ultimately depends on how much superior the winger is to the dman.

i think if there's a significant tier break in talent then go with the winger still. you can always trade the current players/prospects as well.

this isn' the NFL where drafted players are playing in year-1 in some capacity. where the Jets are drafting these players are 2-5 years away, who knows what the roster looks like by then, and what the playing capabilities are of the current prospects. they could have fallen off and the guy you drafted might be top-6 capable so you'd be thankful you nabbed him. to many variables.

 

[ps241]

I know drafting BPA is the preferred method by most teams but what if you have a real need at another position and you are already stocked with BPA type players? Eg: BPA is a winger, you are stocked with wingers on roster and in minors, but need defense and one is ranked 2 or 3 positions later....do you take the d man instead? I think I would.
Thoughts?

tough to say. i generally lean toward best-prospect available. ultimately depends on how much superior the winger is to the dman.

i think if there's a significant tier break in talent then go with the winger still. you can always trade the current players/prospects as well.

this isn' the NFL where drafted players are playing in year-1 in some capacity. where the Jets are drafting these players are 2-5 years away, who knows what the roster looks like by then, and what the playing capabilities are of the current prospects. they could have fallen off and the guy you drafted might be top-6 capable so you'd be thankful you nabbed him. to many variables.

I heard a GM discuss this and it might have even been Chevy. As I recall the closer you pick to #1 the more likely it is you stay on BPA, but the further away from #1 OA you get the more likely you are to land in a tier where position of need could be a determining factor . I know the later in the draft the more it comes down to some scout, any scout in your org having a passion for the pick.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

I'd go BPA at 18... thing is could that be a winger center or Dman? I.dont know

All things being equal u take the center right cuz u can convert him to wing if need be. But the Jets for example lack rhd prospects outside of Lundmark and salomonsson

Crazy scenarios also happen where players fall for some unknown reason... Kyle Connor, Matt barzal even.

Imagine a world where Mitchkov or the Russian D who is the only real projected 1 or 2 D falls to 18. U run up there and grab them.

 

[DRW204]

This is 15-25 for him

Willander
Hager
Benson
Edstrom
Moore
Barlow
Musty
Sandin Pellikka
Stramel
Sale
Molendyk

 

[surixon]

This is 15-25 for him

Willander
Hager
Benson
Edstrom
Moore
Barlow
Musty
Sandin Pellikka
Stramel
Sale
Molendyk

I can't see Benson falling to us.

 

[RabidOne]

I can't see Benson falling to us.

So good chance it happens?

 

[surixon]

So good chance it happens?

Lol, yeah watch it happen ala Conner.

 

[WaveRaven]

Benson and Moore seem low.

 

[surixon]

Benson and Moore seem low.

I've never really cared for Pronman and his rankings. I like Wheeler's better so it will be interesting to see how different his list is.

 

[ps241]

Benson and Moore seem low.

I could see Moore falling to us but I would be Connor/Perfetti level stunned if Benson dropped in our lap. That being said this is such a good draft who knows really.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

Would love for our GM to be proactive and make a move to get us another 1st this draft using PLD, Scheif or Helle but judging on his past history that is very unlikely.

 

[DRW204]

Benson and Moore seem low.

Here's his write up for both if you're interested
Both are tier 5: bubble top-6 /middle of the line up player

Benson:

Skating - Average
Puck Skills, hockey sense, compete - above average

Player Comparable
Jonathan Marchessault

Background
Benson was one of the top forwards in the WHL, being a leading player for a top-ranked team for two years in a row. He's been an all-situations player in the WHL for a while, including on a premier club as a 16-year-old. He scored 20 points in 24 WHL games as a 15-year-old. He was a top forward for Canada's U18 team. He was the 14th pick in his WHL Bantam Draft.

Analysis
Benson has a ton of creativity and offense in his game. He makes high-end skill plays routinely, he's one of the better passers in junior and projects to be a major asset on an NHL power play. Benson lacks ideal size at 5-foot-9, but he's relentless in puck battles often coming out with the puck despite his frame. He's a responsible, detailed defensive player who is an asset without the puck. His frame, combined with a lack of separation speed, is a concern, though, for his NHL projection even though he's got good quickness in tight. There is a fair amount of risk on his projection, but his strong compete and tremendous skill plus track record of scoring, makes you think there is still a very good chance he can become a quality top-six wing in the NHL.

Moore:

Skating - high end
Puck skills, hockey sense - average
Compete - above average

Player Comparable
Jean-Gabriel Pageau

Background
Moore was often the second-line center for the U.S. NTDP this season. He ran Team USA's second power-play unit and is their top penalty killer. He is committed to the University of Minnesota.

Analysis
Moore is the best skater in the draft. He has very good speed and his edgework is NHL-elite caliber. He evades pressure so well and is able to go from a stop to a fast gear very quickly. He has very good hands to go with those feet and projects to get a ton of controlled zone entries in the NHL. I don't think his pure offensive touch as a scorer or playmaker will ever dazzle, and he'll be more of a secondary scorer on an NHL line. Moore lacks size, and isn't overly physical, but he's a worker. He gets to the net, comes back hard on defense and coaches trust him in tough situations. He has a ton of NHL projectability and looks like a potential good top six forward, whether at center or the wing.

 

[ps241]

Would love for our GM to be proactive and make a move to get us another 1st this draft using PLD, Scheif or Helle but judging on his past history that is very unlikely.

I feel that we will come out with at least one more 1st round pick this draft and maybe a 2nd round pick as well.

 

[gojetsgo]

Would love for our GM to be proactive and make a move to get us another 1st this draft using PLD, Scheif or Helle but judging on his past history that is very unlikely.

if you judge off of past history then it is very very likely just look at the trouba trade

 

[BoneDocUK]

if you judge off of past history then it is very very likely just look at the trouba trade

.... or even the Copp trade, though that was a TDL deal.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

I can't see Benson falling to us.

He's 5 foot 9. Nhl gms and scouts will take size