Prospect Info: The 2023-2024 Prospects Thread Pt. 3

[Lindgren]

Daniel Wagner (Pass it to Bulis) has done his bit with a piece ranking the prospects by tier.

In the elite, very likely-to-be-a-star top tier, there's ...nobody.

After that:
tier 2) Willander and Lekkerimaki
tier 3) Silovs, Fernstrom, Kudryavtsev, McWard, Pettersson, Raty
tier 4) Bains, Karlsson, Koskenvuo, Mynio, Patterson, Romani, Tolopilo, Woo
tier 5) Alcos, Alriksson, Bloom, Dorrington, Forsell, Hirose, Klimovitch, Mueller, Sasson, Young
tier 6) everybody else

clarification in case it's needed: the ordering within the tiers is random

The Vancouver Canucks 2024-25 Prospect Pyramid

As with the Canucks Army ranking, I'd have Tolopilo a tier higher, and among other quibbles, Young wouldn't make the chart.

 

[Vector]

Daniel Wagner (Pass it to Bulis) has done his bit with a piece ranking the prospects by tier.

In the elite, very likely-to-be-a-star top tier, there's ...nobody.

After that:
tier 2) Willander and Lekkerimaki
tier 3) Silovs, Fernstrom, Kudryavtsev, McWard, Pettersson, Raty
tier 4) Bains, Karlsson, Koskenvuo, Mynio, Patterson, Romani, Tolopilo, Woo
tier 5) Alcos, Alriksson, Bloom, Dorrington, Forsell, Hirose, Klimovitch, Mueller, Sasson, Young
tier 6) everybody else

clarification in case it's needed: the ordeering within the tiers is random

The Vancouver Canucks 2024-25 Prospect Pyramid

As with the Canucks Army ranking, I'd have Tolopilo a tier higher, and among other quibbles, Young wouldn't make the chart.

I think this ranking is significantly worse than Hall’s. I do like the premise more than a straight list, though.

 

[strattonius]

Canucks Army, well Dave Hall, ranked the Canucks top 20 prospects. Nice in-depth write-ups for each.

1) Jonathan Lekkerimaki
2) Tom Willander
3) Arturs Silovs
4) Elias Pettersson
5) Aatu Raty
6) Arshdeep Bains
7) Kirill Kudryavtsev
8) Sawyer Mynio
9) Melvin Fernstrom
10) Anthony Romani
11) Vilmer Alriksson
12) Riley Patterson
13) Max Sasson
14) Cole McWard
15) Josh Bloom
16) Danila Klimovich
17) Ty Mueller
18) Aku Koskenvuo
19) Jett Woo
20) Nikita Tolopilo
HM: Lucas Forsell, Tristen Nielsen, Jackson Dorrington, Daimon Gardner, Parker Alcos, & Linus Karlsson

Karlsson being an HM with a group of about 10 nearly hopeless prospects is just hilarious to me.

Apparently playing in the NHL playoffs shows less potential than overage junior player Josh Bloom.

 

[Lindgren]

Using the same tiers, I'd have the following:

1) nobody
2) Willander, Lekkerimaki
3) Silovs, Pettersson,
4) Bains, Karlsson, Tolopilo, Sasson, Raty
5) Fernstrom, Koskenvuo, Mynio, Patterson, Romani, Woo, Alcos, Alriksson, Bloom, Dorrington, Forsell, Hirose, Klimovitch, Mueller, McWard, Kudryavtsev

 

[credulous]

the pitb list is way better than the ca list but there's still some weird stuff in there like having sasson and mueller in tier 5 with the junk

people are gonna be mad about willander and lekkerimaki being in tier 2 but i think that's where they belong. both have to show significant improvement this season to be on track to be impact players imo

(also i'd have raty and fernstrom both way lower but i hate prospects who can't skate)

 

[krutovsdonut]

i'd use a different approach

1. legit top 4/top 6 prospects

willander/lekkermaki/pettersson.

2. maturing nhl bottom 6/bottom pair prospects

karlsson/bains/sasson/wolanin/mcward

3. fading prospects

woo, hirose, klimovitch

4. too soon to say prospects

everyone else.

 

[Vector]

(also i'd have raty and fernstrom both way lower but i hate prospects who can't skate)

Raty’s skating is fine now. He improved a lot last year in that regard. Still not a strength but that’s not what will hold him back anymore.

 

[Wry n Ginger]

i'd use a different approach

1. legit top 4/top 6 prospects

willander/lekkermaki/pettersson.

2. maturing nhl bottom 6/bottom pair prospects

karlsson/bains/sasson/wolanin/mcward

3. fading prospects

woo, hirose, klimovitch

4. too soon to say prospects

everyone else.

Um...ok...but to have your entire #1 tier as "top 4 or top 6" makes no sense or is at least just lazy journalism. The article as it was presented is much better.

 

[sting101]

I would have Lekkerimaki ahead of Willander if your using last season as the primary data for their trajectories. A U20MVP and SEL ROTY is ahead of what Willander showed even if TW should project better long term and is a more sought after position.

I thought we mostly agreed in a long drawn out semantics debate in the Lekk thread that recent performance has a massive bearing on prospect rankings and projections

As far as the new shiny toys... none are top50 picks so they should not be ahead of players like Woo McWard Sasson Karlsson who have shown to be good to excellent AHLers and have NHL utility as soon as this year. I do understand that's what sells interest though in prospect rankings

 

[WetcoastOrca]

I too would have Lekk over Willander in terms of who I think will be better. That said, I think Willander will end up the more valuable player just based on the positions they play.

 

[krutovsdonut]

Um...ok...but to have your entire #1 tier as "top 4 or top 6" makes no sense or is at least just lazy journalism. The article as it was presented is much better.

those are the prospects i see with top 4/top 6 upside. they are in a different tier to others who i do not see with that upside at this time.

not sure what you are on about calling me lazy. it's just a different way of evaluating players. i find these lists generally uphelpful because they attempt to assess totally different classes of prospects on a single tier.

 

[nucksflailtogether]

Karlsson being an HM with a group of about 10 nearly hopeless prospects is just hilarious to me.

Apparently playing in the NHL playoffs shows less potential than overage junior player Josh Bloom.

Well when you put it that way it does seem kind of stupid.

 

[Wry n Ginger]

those are the prospects i see with top 4/top 6 upside. they are in a different tier to others who i do not see with that upside at this time.

not sure what you are on about calling me lazy. it's just a different way of evaluating players. i find these lists generally uphelpful because they attempt to assess totally different classes of prospects on a single tier.

Yah I do see your point. Sorry about the lazy comment

 

[VanJack]

Using the same tiers, I'd have the following:

1) nobody
2) Willander, Lekkerimaki
3) Silovs, Pettersson,
4) Bains, Karlsson, Tolopilo, Sasson, Raty
5) Fernstrom, Koskenvuo, Mynio, Patterson, Romani, Woo, Alcos, Alriksson, Bloom, Dorrington, Forsell, Hirose, Klimovitch, Mueller, McWard, Kudryavtsev

Lekkerimaki is the reigning MVP of the 2024 World Jr. Hockey Championships. When you look at the list of previous winners of the award, very few of them were anything less than 'Tier One' prospects.

 

[Lindgren]

Lekkerimaki is the reigning MVP of the 2024 World Jr. Hockey Championships. When you look at the list of previous winners of the award, very few of them were anything less than 'Tier One' prospects.

I hope you're right about his future. I think you're wrong.

 

[LemonSauceD]

Personally of all the close to the NHL ready prospects, I’m pretty high on Sasson and what I’ve seen from him. His skating ability is above average and has shown good offensive upside as well as being good defensively.

Like I would not be surprised in the slightest if he directly grabs a 4C spot and forces managements hands to make a move (Suter, Hoglander) etc. He’s 24.

 

[David Bruce Banner]

Barring injuries, these players will most likely play, more than just a few more, games in the NHL...
Silovs (already has), Karlsson (already has), Lekkermaki, Willander, Petterson and Raty.
Karlsson is 40/60 to hit 100 games... Raty 50/50.
Willander probably has a good long career. How good depends on his offensive game.
Lekkermaki might flame out, or might have a decent career.
Outside of them, I really only see Bains, Tolopilo and Sasson as having any chance of playing more than 10 NHL games.
Everyone else probably tops out as an AHL player, at best.

 

[VanJack]

I hope you're right about his future. I think you're wrong.

Obviously winning the MVP award at the World Jr. Hockey Championships is no guarantee of NHL success. But based on past history, players who've won the award have made their mark on the NHL.

The WJHC is a hard tournament to dominate, the way Lekkerimaki did in Sweden last year. But I suppose it shouldn't have been too great a shock. He was the leading scorer for Orebro in the SHL as a 19-year old. In fact Orebro was a pretty mediocre team and Lekkerimaki was virtually the only scoring threat they had.

And I feel safe in saying that you'd probably have to go back to the days of Elias Pettersson in the SHL to find a Canuck draft pick who's dominated his draft-plus one or-two season, the way Lekkerimaki has this past season. And even then, Lekkerimaki might have had a better year.

So all the stars seem to be aligned for him to have an impact career in the NHL. And it's almost a certainty that when other teams come knocking on the Canucks door for trade possibilities--the names of Lekkerimaki and Wilander probably leap to the head of their priority list.

 

[MS]

A middling result for Willander would be, like, John Marino and a middling result for Lekkerimaki would be like a Mangiapane or something. There’s just so much more value there with Willander. He’s the team’s best prospect and it isn’t close.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Obviously winning the MVP award at the World Jr. Hockey Championships is no guarantee of NHL success. But based on past history, players who've won the award have made their mark on the NHL.

The WJHC is a hard tournament to dominate, the way Lekkerimaki did in Sweden last year. But I suppose it shouldn't have been too great a shock. He was the leading scorer for Orebro in the SHL as a 19-year old. In fact Orebro was a pretty mediocre team and Lekkerimaki was virtually the only scoring threat they had.

And I feel safe in saying that you'd probably have to go back to the days of Elias Pettersson in the SHL to find a Canuck draft pick who's dominated his draft-plus one or-two season, the way Lekkerimaki has this past season. And even then, Lekkerimaki might have had a better year.

So all the stars seem to be aligned for him to have an impact career in the NHL. And it's almost a certainty that when other teams come knocking on the Canucks door for trade possibilities--the names of Lekkerimaki and Wilander probably leap to the head of their priority list.

A better year than EP d+1 ?! Uhh not even close. Petey had one of the best (non NHL)d+1 seasons in recent memory. I mean for any prospect not just Canucks. Boeser d+1 might be comparable.

 

[RobertKron]

And I feel safe in saying that you'd probably have to go back to the days of Elias Pettersson in the SHL to find a Canuck draft pick who's dominated his draft-plus one or-two season, the way Lekkerimaki has this past season. And even then, Lekkerimaki might have had a better year.

Lekkerimaki just had his D+2.

In his D+1, Pettersson won the SHL championship, SHL rookie of the year, SHL MVP, SHL Playoff MVP, the SHL scoring title, and gold at the grownup World Championships. In his D+2, Pettersson led the Canucks in goals, assists, and points, led the NHL in rookie goals, assists, and points, won the Calder, and had as many points at the grownup WC as Lekkerimaki did at this year's WJHC.

Just stop.

 

[Hoglander]

Yeah, Lekkerimaki had a really nice season, but EP was basically generational. EP was unquestionably better.

It's worth noting though, that Lekkerimaki was about 3/4 of a year younger, relative to their draft year. EP was one of the older prospects in his draft, and played the majority (November birthday) of his D+1 at 19 years of age. Lekkerimaki was one of the younger prospects in his draft, playing his entire D+2 at 19. Not that this closes the gap or anything, but the difference in age at that point of their physical development, definitely holds some level of significance, and should make Lekkerimaki's accomplishments look even more impressive than it does at first glance. Without doing any research into it, I'd wager it's pretty rare that a teenager is named MVP of an SHL team. There absolutely should be some hype around this kid.

 

[bobbyb2009]

Lekkerimaki just had his D+2.

In his D+1, Pettersson won the SHL championship, SHL rookie of the year, SHL MVP, SHL Playoff MVP, the SHL scoring title, and gold at the grownup World Championships. In his D+2, Pettersson led the Canucks in goals, assists, and points, led the NHL in rookie goals, assists, and points, won the Calder, and had as many points at the grownup WC as Lekkerimaki did at this year's WJHC.

Just stop.

This! (Above)

On this one, I hope I am wrong, but I am really doubtful Lekkerimaki makes an impact on this team ever, never mind in the short term. But one can always dream and hope.

 

[sting101]

I have it.....

1 - (20) Lekkerimaki - 1
2 - (19) Willander - 1
3 - (21) Raty - 2
4 - (21) Silovs - 6
5 - (20) Pettersson - 3
6 - (23) Bains - FA
7 - (23) Sasson - FA
8 - (23) McWard- FA
9 - (24) Karlsson - 3
10 - (24) Woo - 2
11 - (19) Mynio - 3
12 - (20) Kudryavtsev - 7
13 - (18) Fernstrom - 3
14 - (18) Patterson - 4
15 - (21) Mueller - 4
16 - (21) Klimovich - 2
17 - (19) Alriksson - 4
18 - (19) Romani - 6
19 - (21) Koskenvuo - 5
20 - (24) Tolopilo - FA

Criteria....
Upside potential is paramount
Exceeding and failing to meet development linear projections is what changes rankings
(AHL > Euro Pro > NCAA > Juniors) (18 > 23)

The reason Lekk goes above Willander.....
* Orebro best player. SEL top 5 goal scorer
* BEST SEL goal scorer when factoring in team GPG (Tomasek 14.2% Sylvegard 14.4% Russell 14.4% Rattie 13.8% Ejdsell 11.8%.......... LEKKERIMAKI 18.6%)
* ROTY and U20 MVP.
* His shot release and accuracy are ELITE and upper tier NHL skills

Willander has more tools and positional value to be a better asset but his NCAA season and U20s showed he needs some on puck improvement before he ranks above a player who was all the above this past year. And it's probably why most prospect rankings have JL above TW now

* Excited to follow Riley Patterson and his development this year. Feel like as per usual some scouting reports and rankings were once again a little stiff to adjust to his 34pts in his last 24 games and massive jump to 78-95 that some independent rankings had him at. His skating is a highly projectable skill as is his scoring prowess during the last few months. Sure could use a Cirelli type late round steal at the C position if he pulls it off.

 

[VanJack]

Lekkerimaki just had his D+2.

In his D+1, Pettersson won the SHL championship, SHL rookie of the year, SHL MVP, SHL Playoff MVP, the SHL scoring title, and gold at the grownup World Championships. In his D+2, Pettersson led the Canucks in goals, assists, and points, led the NHL in rookie goals, assists, and points, won the Calder, and had as many points at the grownup WC as Lekkerimaki did at this year's WJHC.

Lekkerimaki just had his D+2.

In his D+1, Pettersson won the SHL championship, SHL rookie of the year, SHL MVP, SHL Playoff MVP, the SHL scoring title, and gold at the grownup World Championships. In his D+2, Pettersson led the Canucks in goals, assists, and points, led the NHL in rookie goals, assists, and points, won the Calder, and had as many points at the grownup WC as Lekkerimaki did at this year's WJHC.

Just stop.

It's worth noting that when Pettersson wracked up 24 goals and 32 assists he was playing for the Vaxjo Lakers, who finished that 2017-18 season at 34-10. It was one of the most dominant seasons in SHL history.

Lekkerimaki, on the other hand was playing last season for the lowly Orebro HC, who squeezed into the playoffs on the last day of the season, and were swept in the qualifying round. They weren't very good, and Lekkerimaki was virtually the only scoring threat they had. So I'm sure other teams tried to smother him every time he was on the ice. Even at that, he finished the season with 19 goals, not too far off Pettersson's 24.

It's hard to compare assist totals, because unlike Pettersson who's a center, Lekkerimaki is a right winger. And without a quality center to get him the puck, he had to generate most of his scoring chances on his own.

Finally in Pettersson's only appearance at the World Jr. Hockey championship in 2018, he finished with five goals and two assists. Although to be fair he only played five games after sustaining a broken thumb. But he really didn't come close to matching Lekkerimaki's dominant performance, that landed him the tournament MVP award in 2024..

As teenagers in the SHL, the gap between Pettersson and Lekkerimaki isn't as big as it might appear.