Speculation: The 2019 Draft Thread - Sabres pick 7th

[sabrebuild]

That's my view too.

So a player picked in 2020 may not be ready to play until 2022-24. So what? We'll need good young players coming in at that time too.

I'd rather get the best possible pipeline of young talent coming into the organization, and not worry as much about getting prospects to try to fit a certain timeframe.

If given the choice between say the #26 overall pick in 2019, or a potential top 15 pick that's in the lottery in 2020, I'd take the latter.

It’s an interesting point of view for Botts. He seems to be comfortable with a lot of assets coming back way down the road. Either he has strong reason to believe he is safe for a few years or he has incredible confidence that the team will be good very quickly.

 

[1972]

I'd take the 19th overall pick in 2019 over the 13th overall pick in 2020, but I would rather the 15th overall pick in 2020 then the 25th overall pick in 2019.

 

[1972]

Adam McMaster as a second time eligable is going to be a second/third rounder IMO. It's to bad teams are against OHLers late because he along with many others would have been a really good pick.

 

[UnleashRasmus]

How about just not losing for the #1 pick. I'd rather be getting closer to a Toronto situation where we are waiting for a prospect like Liljegren to fall and are increasing our depth. Realistically I know this is futile and we'll likely pick in the top 10 next season. However, I for one am tired of this insufferable losing.

 

[Tsyolin]

I don't actually expect this team to be in the mix for the #1 overall. I expect us to move up to #8-12 area. Best you could hope for is a lucky lotto drop.

 

[Jim Bob]

I don't actually expect this team to be in the mix for the #1 overall. I expect us to move up to #8-12 area. Best you could hope for is a lucky lotto drop.

I doubt the team makes a 15 to 20 point improvement year over year.

I think an 8-12 point improvement and ending up in the 3 to 5 range is more likely.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Re- watching some games. Blake Murray has power LW written all over him. Go take a look. Goes to dirty areas and competes, plays on the boards. Hard on the puck. Skates well. Would be a good player mid first.

 

[AustonsNostrils]

When's the Summer Showcase tournament? I need some hockey to watch bad.

 

[debaser66]

This team can be anywhere from last place to 8-12 maybe even wildcard.
Its hard to say how this pieces come together.

 

[1972]

It’s hard to picture us adding another young core piece next year as well, but that’s probably the reality again lol.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

I don't actually expect this team to be in the mix for the #1 overall. I expect us to move up to #8-12 area. Best you could hope for is a lucky lotto drop.

Wow...have you looked at our projected lineup? How could you possibly...which 7-11 teams do you expect us to be better than? You could argue Ottawa and Detroit but even that is wishful thinking.

 

[Dingo44]

Wow...have you looked at our projected lineup? How could you possibly...which 7-11 teams do you expect us to be better than? You could argue Ottawa and Detroit but even that is wishful thinking.

Being better than Ottawa is wishful thinking? HA HA HA

 

[Der Jaeger]

I think the Sabres are going to look and play like a young team, with all the good and warts. Lots of excitement and great plays, lots of mistakes. I think Hutton is going to win about 5 games on his own, just not letting in goals in OT and sucking in the shootout. Because of that, I think Buffalo will draft around 8-10 before the lottery.

I expect both SJ and STL to make the playoffs. With that, here's what I think a good draft would look like:

1 (BUF): Dylan Cozens, F, Lethbridge
1 (STL): Alex Vlasic, D, USNDTP
1 (SJ): Blake Murray, F, Sudbury

 

[Jim Bob]

I think the Sabres are going to look and play like a young team, with all the good and warts. Lots of excitement and great plays, lots of mistakes. I think Hutton is going to win about 5 games on his own, just not letting in goals in OT and sucking in the shootout. Because of that, I think Buffalo will draft around 8-10 before the lottery.

I expect both SJ and STL to make the playoffs. With that, here's what I think a good draft would look like:

1 (BUF): Dylan Cozens, F, Lethbridge
1 (STL): Alex Vlasic, D, USNDTP
1 (SJ): Blake Murray, F, Sudbury

It will be interesting to see if GMJB breaks the CHL seal at the 2019 Draft. Especially if he does use the 3 1sts to take players in 2019.

 

[Der Jaeger]

It will be interesting to see if GMJB breaks the CHL seal at the 2019 Draft. Especially if he does use the 3 1sts to take players in 2019.

Yeah, I get the player control with the years. Later in the draft, that makes sense,. But early in the draft, bypassing a CHL player for that reason seems dumb.

 

[Jim Bob]

Yeah, I get the player control with the years. Later in the draft, that makes sense,. But early in the draft, bypassing a CHL player for that reason seems dumb.

He did frame it as a later round thing because they expect the early picks to develop quickly.

It has really only been 4 picks (Samuelsson, Middlestadt, Davidsson, & UPL) that this could have been a factor. I hope that they went BPA and didn't factor league into the debate.

 

[dotcommunism]

He did frame it as a later round thing because they expect the early picks to develop quickly.

I've been thinking about this a little bit and I wonder if there's something deliberate going on there beyond simply holding player rights longer (which, of course, does have value on its own). This is complete speculation, mind you, but perhaps they perceive an inefficiency in the draft with Europeans/Euro defensemen being underdrafted or CHLers being overdrafted in the later rounds. It seems that every year there's a crop of undrafted European players being signed. If a team thinks it can identify those players who end up passed over while they're still draft eligible it could place itself at an advantage. Take a player like Pilut for example, he was draft eligible in 2014. If he had been drafted then, then his draft rights would have been held through this June.
Now I have no idea if this is their thought process, or similar to it, or whether it's even accurate. Still, considering how much of a complete crapshoot the later rounds of the draft are, is it that irrational of an approach?

 

[Icicle]

I've been thinking about this a little bit and I wonder if there's something deliberate going on there beyond simply holding player rights longer (which, of course, does have value on its own). This is complete speculation, mind you, but perhaps they perceive an inefficiency in the draft with Europeans/Euro defensemen being underdrafted or CHLers being overdrafted in the later rounds. It seems that every year there's a crop of undrafted European players being signed. If a team thinks it can identify those players who end up passed over while they're still draft eligible it could place itself at an advantage. Take a player like Pilut for example, he was draft eligible in 2014. If he had been drafted then, then his draft rights would have been held through this June.
Now I have no idea if this is their thought process, or similar to it, or whether it's even accurate. Still, considering how much of a complete crapshoot the later rounds of the draft are, is it that irrational of an approach?

He outright said euros/NCAA players have more value in later rounds because teams get to wait longer before having to decide on them.

 

[dotcommunism]

He outright said euros/NCAA players have more value in later rounds because teams get to wait longer before having to decide on them.

I literally noted that longer rights have value on their own. That wasn't my point.

 

[Jim Bob]

I've been thinking about this a little bit and I wonder if there's something deliberate going on there beyond simply holding player rights longer (which, of course, does have value on its own). This is complete speculation, mind you, but perhaps they perceive an inefficiency in the draft with Europeans/Euro defensemen being underdrafted or CHLers being overdrafted in the later rounds. It seems that every year there's a crop of undrafted European players being signed. If a team thinks it can identify those players who end up passed over while they're still draft eligible it could place itself at an advantage. Take a player like Pilut for example, he was draft eligible in 2014. If he had been drafted then, then his draft rights would have been held through this June.
Now I have no idea if this is their thought process, or similar to it, or whether it's even accurate. Still, considering how much of a complete crapshoot the later rounds of the draft are, is it that irrational of an approach?

That could absolutely be the thought process and they don't want to tip their hand on their actual reasoning for the approach.

It's like the old moneyball idea that bypassing HS kids for college players in the MLB draft was the way to go because the college players had more relevant stats to project what they would be as pros.

Another piece of research could be to look at the history of the NHL Draft and where do players that pan out from the 3rd round or later come from versus the number of picks from the various leagues and see if there is a higher hit rate from non-CHL leagues or not.

If you look at the 2011 Draft for example, you have Johnny Hockey as the best skater drafted after the first two rounds and he was headed to BC. But, you also have useful players like Palat, Trochek, and Shaw that were CHL players drafted after the 2nd round, as well.

It would be an interesting case study to read about if someone were to undertake it.

 

[Icicle]

I literally noted that longer rights have value on their own. That wasn't my point.

But it was the point he gave when asked in an interview about it.

 

[dotcommunism]

Another piece of research could be to look at the history of the NHL Draft and where do players that pan out from the 3rd round or later come from versus the number of picks from the various leagues and see if there is a higher hit rate from non-CHL leagues or not.

If you look at the 2011 Draft for example, you have Johnny Hockey as the best skater drafted after the first two rounds and he was headed to BC. But, you also have useful players like Palat, Trochek, and Shaw that were CHL players drafted after the 2nd round, as well.

It would be an interesting case study to read about if someone were to undertake it.

Another wrinkle is that you'd probably need to factor in players who went undrafted, or who were drafted as overagers. Like if you're trying to figure out what players should have been drafted, you'd need to consider all who could have been drafted. So, someone like Tanner Pearson would need to be looked at for the 2010 and 2011 drafts, not just 2012. Somelike like Zuccarello would need to be looked at for 2005 through 2008. Of course any data done in the aggregate would overrepresent those players, as they'd be eligible for up to 3 or 4 drafts, whereas someone drafted at 18 may only be eligible for one draft. Something would need to be done to control for that. It could be as simple as only looking at players when they are first draft eligible, but I'm not sure that properly accounts for the fact that players can be, and are, drafted after their first year of eligibility.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I think waiting to see how Luukonen and the later round Euros turn out will be interesting.

 

[Jim Bob]

Another wrinkle is that you'd probably need to factor in players who went undrafted, or who were drafted as overagers. Like if you're trying to figure out what players should have been drafted, you'd need to consider all who could have been drafted. So, someone like Tanner Pearson would need to be looked at for the 2010 and 2011 drafts, not just 2012. Somelike like Zuccarello would need to be looked at for 2005 through 2008. Of course any data done in the aggregate would overrepresent those players, as they'd be eligible for up to 3 or 4 drafts, whereas someone drafted at 18 may only be eligible for one draft. Something would need to be done to control for that. It could be as simple as only looking at players when they are first draft eligible, but I'm not sure that properly accounts for the fact that players can be, and are, drafted after their first year of eligibility.

The tough part with some of the super late developers if that it is really unlikely that they are on anyone's radar.

Whether they are kids in lower European leagues or kids that are playing lower level Junior A or Junior B on their path to the NCAA, it can be really hard to say that they are draftable when they are first draft eligible.

That is where having access to draft lists could help with the research as opposed to a generic look via internet research, if that makes sense.

 

[1972]

As a fan I can’t wait until we finally have a 19 year old draft with select players getting exemptions...