Prospect Info: The 2019 Draft Thread - Part 2

[wokwithme]

Yeah this is silly season and if the Oilers hadn't had the Yak/Puljujarvi experience I wouldn't be freaked out.

Just nitpicked.

im the same. the yak draft especially gets me cynical. It wasnt like he was playing overseas. He was in the CHL getting heavily scouted, playing on NA ice surface, playing in NHL high competitive style games. That pick and draft really destroyed me from investing much into prospects potential.
He was the consensus number 1....by the so called experts. not a deep draft year but still...consensus number 1.

despite yak having played in the CHL i still feel best if we draft out of the CHL.

 

[Joey Moss]

I just hope we don't get bumped down. Seems like from 3-7 its wide open.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

I just hope we don't get bumped down. Seems like from 3-7 its wide open.

8 or even 9 wouldn't be bad. There's a consensus top-9 imo (in whatever order):

Kakko
Hughes
Byram
Turcotte
Dach
Krebs
Zegras
Cozens
Podkolzin

As long as we're in the top-9, we'll get one of those players. And there isn't much separating 3-9.

 

[Debbie Mathers]

8 or even 9 wouldn't be bad. There's a consensus top-9 imo (in whatever order):

Kakko
Hughes
Byram
Turcotte
Dach
Krebs
Zegras
Cozens
Podkolzin

As long as we're in the top-9, we'll get one of those players. And there isn't much separating 3-9.

That does seem to be the consensus top-9. But there is always a chance a team goes off board. I mean, Barrett Hayton at 5 last year was a massive reach with players like Zadina and Hughes on the board. Kotkaniemi and Kravtsov were also reaches, but to a much lesser extent.

Is there a specific player that you guys think a team could reach for? Hayton was probably reached for because he was best C available, but this year, there really isn't a need for any team to reach for a C, is there. The one guy I could see being picked in the top 9 is Soderstrom. Offensive RHD with pretty big upside. Thoughts?

 

[Llamamoto]

That does seem to be the consensus top-9. But there is always a chance a team goes off board. I mean, Barrett Hayton at 5 last year was a massive reach with players like Zadina and Hughes on the board. Kotkaniemi and Kravtsov were also reaches, but to a much lesser extent.

Is there a specific player that you guys think a team could reach for? Hayton was probably reached for because he was best C available, but this year, there really isn't a need for any team to reach for a C, is there. The one guy I could see being picked in the top 9 is Soderstrom. Offensive RHD with pretty big upside. Thoughts?

Thats definitely true. Someone posted something a few days ago, it may have been CycloneSweep, where 2 D have been taken in every top-10. The Panthers could definitely use Soderstrom. I can also see Boldy potentially going in the top-9. We're going to get a good player.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

That does seem to be the consensus top-9. But there is always a chance a team goes off board. I mean, Barrett Hayton at 5 last year was a massive reach with players like Zadina and Hughes on the board. Kotkaniemi and Kravtsov were also reaches, but to a much lesser extent.

Is there a specific player that you guys think a team could reach for? Hayton was probably reached for because he was best C available, but this year, there really isn't a need for any team to reach for a C, is there. The one guy I could see being picked in the top 9 is Soderstrom. Offensive RHD with pretty big upside. Thoughts?

Boldy, Soderstrom, Newhook, and Dorofeyev probably have the highest chance to go top-9 of the other players.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

Quick exercise: Post your top-10, a player comparison for each player, and how likely they are to reach their ceiling out of 10.

I'll start:

1. Kakko - Better Rantanen, 9
2. Hughes - Gaudreau, 9
3. Byram - Josi, 7
4. Turcotte - Point, 7
5. Dach - Draisaitl, 6
6. Krebs - Couturier, 7
7. Zegras - Marner, 5
8. Cozens - Carter, 4
9. Podkolzin - Radulov, 3
10. Boldy - B. Tkachuk???, 5

 

[Frank the Tank]

We should still get a good player. Hopefully we pick #7 at worse.

The odds favor the Oilers picking 8th. With three lotteries there's a good chance that a team at 8th or higher jumps into the top-3.

 

[LTIR]

Kakko or Cozens will be an Oiler next year depending upon the Lotto balls.

 

[FlameChampion]

The odds favor the Oilers picking 8th. With three lotteries there's a good chance that a team at 8th or higher jumps into the top-3.

You’re probably right. Eight isn’t so bad either. Glad draft lottery is earlier this year.

 

[Stud Muffin]

The odds favor the Oilers picking 8th. With three lotteries there's a good chance that a team at 8th or higher jumps into the top-3.

There’s a 24.5% chance of someone from behind winning the lottery. So they definitely don’t favor picking 8th.

 

[Frank the Tank]

There’s a 24.5% chance of someone from behind winning the lottery. So they definitely don’t favor picking 8th.

Yes, they do.

2019 NHL Draft Lottery Odds | Tankathon

Only 25% they stay at 7th, 20% they move top-3, and 55% they move down one or more spots.

 

[Stud Muffin]

Yes, they do.

2019 NHL Draft Lottery Odds | Tankathon

Only 25% they stay at 7th, 20% they move top-3, and 55% they move down one or more spots.

Those odds don’t make any sense though, how do they have a 55% chance of moving down when the other teams only have a 24.5% chance of winning the lottery?

 

[Frank the Tank]

Those odds don’t make any sense though, how do they have a 55% chance of moving down when the other teams only have a 24.5% chance of winning the lottery?

Because three separate draws will take place for the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd picks.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Based on previous drafts on average 2 of the winners are in the top 6, one is outside. I think we pick 8 almost guaranteed unless we win the lotto.

 

[Stud Muffin]

Because three separate draws will take place for the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd picks.

I get that, it just seems weird that the odds sway that much when combined.

 

[ImmuneEH]

If someone behind us wins the lottery, fine, I'm cool with the #8 pick. As long as it's not the Ducks or Vancouver. VAN would straight take over the division if they had the Hughes brothers + Petterson & friends. If we win #3, I'll be pretty 'meh', unless we end up drafting Byram with it. Whomever is drafted at #3 will be highly contested because Podkolzin, Dach, Turcotte, and Cozens could shake out in any order.

Assuming we fall to 8 and one of those 4 names doesn't fall to us (one very well might), I bet Oiler's brass would be leaning towards Krebs over Zegras, which I wouldn't mind.

I just hope we don't go off-board for a Boldy, Soderstrom, Newhook, Kaliyev, or Dorofeyev. Not that they are bad players, but I like the 'consensus' top 9 better.

 

[Stud Muffin]

I’d be pretty upset if we chose Krebs over Zegras. Newhook and Krebs is the closer battle for me, will be nice to see how they compare at the u-18s

 

[CycloneSweep]

I think Caufield leaps into the top 10. Essentially a goal per game player, at any league that's incredible. And with the success of Debrincat and Gaudreau I could see people going "guy is pure skill, screw his size"

Imho he is the best goal scorer in the draft. Someone will reach for that

 

[780il]

@ConnorMcMullet here's mine:

1.) Hughes - Better Marner - 7/8
2.) Kakko - Rantanen - 8
3.) Byram - Josi/Rielly - 6/7
4.) Turcotte - Point - 6
5.) Dach - Draisaitl - 5
6.) Krebs - Marchand Lite - 8
7.) Cozens - Schiefele - 4
8.) Zegras - Marner - 5
9.) Boldy - Landeskog Lite? - 6
10.) Caufield - Debrincat - 6

 

[ImmuneEH]

I’d be pretty upset if we chose Krebs over Zegras. Newhook and Krebs is the closer battle for me, will be nice to see how they compare at the u-18s

Do you think the gap between Zegras and Krebs is pretty large? Or do you prefer his playstyle over Krebs?

 

[McDNicks17]

OT, but I can't chirp the WHL for hipster names anymore.

A kid named Tbone Codd was just drafted into the OHL.

 

[Stud Muffin]

Do you think the gap between Zegras and Krebs is pretty large? Or do you prefer his playstyle over Krebs?

More of a playstyle thing, I see more skill and ability to drive the play from Zegras. Zegras for me will be a top 6 guy and Krebs a middle 6.

 

[Darkwinter]

Can someone point out to me how this draft works ? can we move up to 1,2,3 draft spots and what's the worst we can drop.

 

[AddyTheWrath]