Prospect Info: The 2019 Draft Thread - Part 2

[Llamamoto]

I haven't paid enough attention to prospects this year, but I know a few people who have seen Dylan Cousins play on the road this year and they've given me the impression that he's a safe pick. DO NOT want to see us draft Josh Williams or Matthew Robertson. Last thing this franchise needs is a bunch of memberberry picks. Only way I'm cool with seeing them get drafted is if they fall very far.



It scares me how often I hear people say stuff of this sort. Intentionally over drafting via position will destroy your prospect pool. You always want to go BPA. If you're drafting and developing well consistently you will have a good team and you'll be able to afford to trade away young talent to address areas of concern.

He wasn't saying that he would take take a D over a F is the forward is better. He was just saying that he would not pass on a defensemen because we are already stacked there, which is sort of agreeing with you about taking the BPA.


However, I do not view Cozens as a safe pick, and I think quite a few posters here agree with me on that. His lack of IQ and hands reminds me of Puljujarvi. He could prove me wrong, just doesn't seem like a safe pick.

 

[thadd]

He wasn't saying that he would take take a D over a F is the forward is better. He was just saying that he would not pass on a defensemen because we are already stacked there, which is sort of agreeing with you about taking the BPA.


However, I do not view Cozens as a safe pick, and I think quite a few posters here agree with me on that. His lack of IQ and hands reminds me of Puljujarvi. He could prove me wrong, just doesn't seem like a safe pick.

As I said before, I haven't seen him. Couple of childhood friends living in different cities have both seen him and they had a lot of nice things to say about him.

 

[Llamamoto]

I have 4 tiers that look something like this:

Tier 1:
Hughes, Kakko

Tier 2:
Dach, Turcotte, Byram

Tier 3:
Zegras, Krebs, Cozens, Podkolzin, Boldy, Heinola, York

Tier 4:
McMichael, Kaliyev, Dorofeyev, Lavoie, Newhook, Pelletier

 

[Llamamoto]

As I said before, I haven't seen him. Couple of childhood friends living in different cities have both seen him and they had a lot of nice things to say about him.

Huh. @Zaddy posted something some time ago, with some videos and analysis showing some really questionable desicions. You might want to have a look.

Again, I could be completely wrong, just my opinion.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

I have 4 tiers that look something like this:

Tier 1:
Hughes, Kakko

Tier 2:
Dach, Turcotte, Byram

Tier 3:
Zegras, Krebs, Cozens, Podkolzin, Boldy, Heinola, York

Tier 4:
McMichael, Kaliyev, Dorofeyev, Lavoie, Newhook, Pelletier

How I have it:

Tier 1
Kakko, Hughes

Tier 2
Turcotte, Dach

Tier 3
Byram, Krebs, Zegras

Tier 4
Cozens, Podkolzin, Boldy, York

Tier 5
Heinola, Soderstrom, McMichael, Lavoie, Dorofeyev, Kaliyev, Newhook, Pelletier, Tomasino

 

[thadd]

Huh. @Zaddy posted something some time ago, with some videos and analysis showing some really questionable desicions. You might want to have a look.

Again, I could be completely wrong, just my opinion.

I'm going to wait till CHL playoffs are over before I dig into watching draft eligible prospects this year, I think. Bunch of youtube channels put together some great compilations that show of the tool boxes of the kids.

 

[PKSpecialist]

Yeah, I probably wouldn't even draft Robertson with our 2nd.

Krebs is interesting, and I've had a lot of the same thoughts when watching his shift-by-shifts. I like his game, but I'm not sure how much upside he's got.

Zegras, someone who hasn't been talked about a lot here, is pretty much the opposite. He's a bit small and turns the puck over a bit too much, but has got a ton of upside. If he can put it together, his ceiling is very high.

Who do you have ahead?

Three minutes before this post you ranked Matthew Robertson 27 in your rankings, then you say you wouldn’t even draft him with our 2nd, which will be around 40....

I know the concern with Robertson is his offensive creativity, but defenseman with his hockey IQ and poise can play in the NHL. He’s not going to be the flashiest guy, and he’s not my target, but if you rank him in the first round and he’s still on the board with your second, you don’t pass him up, or you trade down.

 

[LTIR]

How I have it:

Tier 1
Kakko, Hughes

Tier 2
Turcotte, Dach

Tier 3
Byram, Krebs, Zegras

Tier 4
Cozens, Podkolzin, Boldy, York

Tier 5
Heinola, Soderstrom, McMichael, Lavoie, Dorofeyev, Kaliyev, Newhook, Pelletier, Tomasino

Sure... Keep Podkolzin falling so he is available when we are up.
He is going to be a steal at around 9/10

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

Sure... Keep Podkolzin falling so he is available when we are up.
He is going to be a steal at around 9/10

I understand he's got a ton of raw talent, but IMO his numbers don't justify being picked in the top 5.

The U-18s could affect my ranking of him though.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

Three minutes before this post you ranked Matthew Robertson 27 in your rankings, then you say you wouldn’t even draft him with our 2nd, which will be around 40....

Draft rankings aren't the same as who I'd draft for the Oilers. The last thing we need is a defensive defenseman (left-shot, no less), so even if I think he's the BPA, I'd prefer a forward with higher upside.

For a team like the Leafs or Penguins, however, Robertson would be a guy they'd covet. That's why I had him at 27.

 

[PKSpecialist]

Draft rankings aren't the same as who I'd draft for the Oilers. The last thing we need is a defensive defenseman (left-shot, no less), so even if I think he's the BPA, I'd prefer a forward with higher upside.

For a team like the Leafs or Penguins, however, Robertson would be a guy they'd covet. That's why I had him at 27.

To each their own I guess, but the only way I pass up on Robertson in the second is if I have someone ranked higher still on my board. I feel pretty strongly about Robertson being a middle pairing NHL defender. I wouldn’t hesitate using a second rounder on him.

These players, especially defenders, are 3-5 years away from the NHL. Can’t worry about the current composition of the team when choosing them. If you are making the pick, you pick the best player available, if you deem that player to be redundant, trade the pick.

 

[McDNicks17]

To each their own I guess, but the only way I pass up on Robertson in the second is if I have someone ranked higher still on my board. I feel pretty strongly about Robertson being a middle pairing NHL defender. I wouldn’t hesitate using a second rounder on him.

These players, especially defenders, are 3-5 years away from the NHL. Can’t worry about the current composition of the team when choosing them. If you are making the pick, you pick the best player available, if you deem that player to be redundant, trade the pick.

Defensemen that project to have very little offense are really bad value in the first few rounds, to me.

I'd say it's significantly easier to find guys like that in the 3rd round+ than it is finding top6 forward types.

 

[BarDownBobo]

Defensemen that project to have very little offense are really bad value in the first few rounds, to me.

I'd say it's significantly easier to find guys like that in the 3rd round+ than it is finding top6 forward types.

It's a little hard to project Robertson's offensive game right now. Watching him he's got good instincts, makes a really nice first pass and skates extremely well. Problem is that he's got Conner McDonald setting team records for the Oil Kings on defense so he's not getting prime offensive minutes. I wouldn't take him with the 1st for sure but if he's there at 40-45 in the second I wouldn't be upset picking him.

 

[PKSpecialist]

Defensemen that project to have very little offense are really bad value in the first few rounds, to me.

I'd say it's significantly easier to find guys like that in the 3rd round+ than it is finding top6 forward types.

Agreed wholeheartedly....but then you shouldn’t (and likely don’t) rank Robertson as a first rounder....

 

[McDNicks17]

Agreed wholeheartedly....but then you shouldn’t (and likely don’t) rank Robertson as a first rounder....

I don't think I would, but I even struggle to see his value in the second round.

Those types of defensemen always seem to end up with the reputation of safe prospects with high floors, but if you look back at drafts, they likely bust at the highest rate of any player type in the first few rounds.

It just doesn't make sense to me to pick a high risk/low reward defenseman if there's other actual safe prospects or high risk/high reward options available.

 

[dustrock]

Sure... Keep Podkolzin falling so he is available when we are up.
He is going to be a steal at around 9/10

I am wary right now given the Oilers' track record with Euro prospects in the last decade. I think Klefbom is the only Euro draft pick that really met expectations.

MPS
Omark
Lander
Hartikainen
Sleppy
Yakupov & the other Russian picks I can't think of off the top of my head
Puljujarvi
etc

I think Podkolzin has some great tools but are we the team to draft him properly?

 

[Tobias Kahun]

I am wary right now given the Oilers' track record with Euro prospects in the last decade. I think Klefbom is the only Euro draft pick that really met expectations.

MPS
Omark
Lander
Hartikainen
Sleppy
Yakupov & the other Russian picks I can't think of off the top of my head
Puljujarvi
etc

I think Podkolzin has some great tools but are we the team to draft him properly?

Draisaitl?

 

[ImmuneEH]

Draisaitl?

Draisaitl was coming off two seasons in the WHL. Yakupov is the only failed prospect on that list who was also drafted out of the CHL.

Podkolzin has tools like the guy mentioned but he has to learn the language (idk what his English ability is like), learn the NA game, get acclimated to NA culture, etc. At least 3 years away if we're to develop him properly imo.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Draisaitl was coming off two seasons in the WHL. Yakupov is the only failed prospect on that list who was also drafted out of the CHL.

Podkolzin has tools like the guy mentioned but he has to learn the language (idk what he English ability is like), learn the NA game, get acclimated to NA culture, etc.

Then yakupov isn’t a failed euro pick, he was picked out a NA league.

 

[Aerrol]

Then yakupov isn’t a failed euro pick, he was picked out a NA league.

I'd include both Draisaitl and Yakupov as Euros. Doesn't change his overall point that I agree with - Podolzin is the exact type of prospect the Oilers should avoid drafting. Amazing tools, not putting up big numbers, language barrier, needs to adapt his game and develop properly. AKA the Oilers ruin him 9.9 times/10.

 

[ImmuneEH]

Then yakupov isn’t a failed euro pick, he was picked out a NA league.

Semantics. Are Draisaitl and Yakupov from Europe? Sure. But they were developing their skills in the CHL prior to being drafted. I think there is less risk in that than drafting Euros who are developing in a foreign league. That being said, I don't mind it so long as they are developed properly.

 

[MinimaMoralia]

I’ve caught a handful of Mooseheads games lately whilst visiting family, and let me say, I have a lot of time for Lavoie if he’s around 9-15. He’s got shades of Drai.

 

[ImmuneEH]

I’ve caught a handful of Mooseheads games lately whilst visiting family, and let me say, I have a lot of time for Lavoie if he’s around 9-15. He’s got shades of Drai.

I've been feeling the same. I'd pick him ahead of Boldy, Suzuki, and Newhook

 

[780il]

I’ve caught a handful of Mooseheads games lately whilst visiting family, and let me say, I have a lot of time for Lavoie if he’s around 9-15. He’s got shades of Drai.

I really like Lavoie as well. Big, skates well, good in all 3 zones and boy can he shoot the f***ing puck. Right handed to boot.

 

[MessierII]

I’ve caught a handful of Mooseheads games lately whilst visiting family, and let me say, I have a lot of time for Lavoie if he’s around 9-15. He’s got shades of Drai.

Only seen him play once but yeah he does have that Drai kind of swag out there for sure.