Tell me why I shouldn’t worry about the Canucks slipping

[Satanphonehome]

This is still a well-coached team with some top-end talent, but it also had 83 points 2 years ago with a lot of the same top-end talent.

And I’m seeing some red flags.

It was career years across the board for so many key Canucks last year. Isn’t some regression to the mean likely?

There aren’t a lot of returning players where you could say “that guys got more to give” or up-and-comers giving off the “this kid is going to make a real impact” vibe.

The guys coming in (Debrusk, Heinen, Sprong, Sherwood, Forbert, Desharnais) don’t look as good as the guys that left (Lindholm, Mikheyev, Lafferty, Podkolzin Zadorov, Cole) especially on the blueline.

Two important guys are out to start the season and it’s unclear how much they will be able to contribute. Joshua (and Zadorov) were identity players and IMO Demko is their most important piece.

I mean, on paper, the roster looks like a playoff team, but pretty much everything went right for Vancouver in the regular season last year. Reassure me why the opposite won’t happen this year.

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[SUX2BU]

One answer: PDO

 

[NailsHoglander]

Lindholm isn't even worth mentioning.. He played 26 games and scored 12 points lol

No Demko is a legit concern. That alone could cause a major set back.

 

[Jared Dunn]

Yeah I think they'll be a wild card team or 3rd in the Pacific. The month or two without Demko could really set them back but I don't know if anyone in the west took a big enough step forward to totally knock them out

 

[Killer Orcas]

Tocchet is the reason just believe and I really think Elias really breaks out this year and is top 5 in scoring. I see 40 plus goals and 70 plus assists for him. We will get stronger as the season goes on. Hopefully we see a Dman added at deadline but were stacked upfront already just need Demko to be healthy especially for the playoffs.

 

[Else Ermine]

OP, please clarify what "slipping" means here?
Not being or President's Trophy contender, not being a playoff team, falling back to 83 points?

They are indeed a well coached team, with some very good players and few key injuries last season. Some PDO watchers in the early season last year blindly claimed they were one of the worst teams in the league and the success was pure luck. Most people agreed they were overachieving and the numbers would regress to the mean, which of course they largely did and remained a well coached team with some very good players that got results some here (who clearly weren't watching) thought beyond them.

They're in a division they should finish in the upper half of. To me a noteworthy "slip" would be to miss the playoffs, and a strong season they push the Oilers in the standings. Nothing in-between should be news because they're one of the many teams where their season will be judged on their degree of playoff success.

 

[Figgy44]

In the Pacific, Oilers, Knights and Kings are still the teams the Canucks should worry about. They just need to focus and edge past one of those 3 teams.

Flames, Kraken, Ducks and Sharks shouldn't be concerns barring a major collapse by the Canucks. As long as the Canucks plod along around where they are expected to be, they'll be OK.

 

[LemonSauceD]

This season will likely be another building block season.

Depth wise we got better upfront. Debrusk, Sherwood, Heinen, and Sprong are all upgrades over Mikheyev, Lafferty and Podkolzin.

Defense definitely took a hit but what would be worse is signing Zadorov to a 5-6 year 5-6M deal he was supposedly looking for. Ian Cole was good to start the year but the guy simply ran out of gas as the year went on. Desharnais should provide good depth and bring some of that physicality Zadorov had in sheltered minutes.

I can assure you 99% of Canucks fans think our team looks better on paper than last seasons. Whether we achieve the same level of success is a different matter. Being healthy and avoiding injuries to star players being the main contributing factor.

And our defense I can assure you won’t look like that mid way through the season.

The real question remains is Demko.

 

[The Shadow]

New coach boost will be gone. I see them slipping for sure

 

[LevelingSolo]

Insanely well coached

 

[BertCorbeau]

 

[EdJovanovski]

Im considering putting a bet on them missing the playoffs considering the odds. Especially if Demko really isn’t returning

 

[timw33]

but it also had 83 points 2 years ago with a lot of the same top-end talent.

There has been a seismic shift in the organization's standards, preparation, and execution now that Rutherford/Allvin have been able to exorcize the demons of the last management and bring in a coach that is actually able to create an accountability structure and system that isn't unsustainable and flimsy like Green/Boudreau before him.

That's probably the biggest reason why some of us aren't feeling like they are a one off team like the Boudreau Bump season. There is a certain level of professionalism and high standards top to bottom for the first time since the Mike Gillis era Canucks, the goal is no longer to "make the playoffs and see what happens".

 

[Breakers]

Hoglander is hitting 100 points

And it isn’t even debatable if he’ll reach it
It’s a forgone conclusion

 

[Szechwan]

You are more than welcome to worry about the Canucks slipping, I don't think anyone is too concerned about outside projections after the last year or so.

 

[SeawaterOnIce]

Team really meshed well together last year and saw a ton of things go right.

Coaching bump.
Hughes, Hronek, Boeser and Miller were rather healthy. No real significant injuries to key guys either.
Demko had a decent year.
Edmonton had a crap start. Vegas got bent over hard by injuries. Calgary, LA, San Jose, Seattle and Anaheim really sucked.

Offense appears to be somewhat improved but there's huge question marks on the blueline and in goal right now.

 

[Lacaar]

I think Vancouver will be fine just considering how weak the Pacific is alone.

 

[DJJones]

I mean they should make the playoffs but was anyone really expecting them to repeat last year?

One of those years where everything went right, tough to replicate

 

[Arthur Morgan]

Because mannnnn, it's bad for the soul mannnnnn

 

[RandV]

This is still a well-coached team with some top-end talent, but it also had 83 points 2 years ago with a lot of the same top-end talent.

And I’m seeing some red flags.

It was career years across the board for so many key Canucks last year. Isn’t some regression to the mean likely?

There aren’t a lot of returning players where you could say “that guys got more to give” or up-and-comers giving off the “this kid is going to make a real impact” vibe.

The guys coming in (Debrusk, Heinen, Sprong, Sherwood, Forbert, Desharnais) don’t look as good as the guys that left (Lindholm, Mikheyev, Lafferty, Podkolzin Zadorov, Cole) especially on the blueline.

Two important guys are out to start the season and it’s unclear how much they will be able to contribute. Joshua (and Zadorov) were identity players and IMO Demko is their most important piece.

I mean, on paper, the roster looks like a playoff team, but pretty much everything went right for Vancouver in the regular season last year. Reassure me why the opposite won’t happen this year.

First off you can't 1:1 compare the start of a season team to the trade deadline buffed playoff team. Lindholm and Zadorov were rentals, and the Canucks will likely add another top 4 dman by the deadline at latest.

For career years, only Hughes really had a significant jump, and you don't generally jump to Norris winner level at age 23 then take a step back. Miller hit 100+ for the first time but only 4 more points than 2 seasons prior. Broeser and Hronek put up career bests, but both put up similar paces before where they only reached 60 games in the season rather than 80. Hoglander and Joshua also put up career bests, but both are only at around 200 career GP and it was under 40 points so not that significant. So like I said, Hughes is the only guy who reached a significant new level.

Demko's health of course is the biggest concern, but in my opinion that more reflects the Canucks chances at competing for the division title/Presidents Trophy/Stanley Cup. The Canucks are a well coached team now and even before that has been one of the leagues best goaltending factories for a while now, they didn't implode without Demko in the playoffs and they should be fine in the regular season with Silovs and Lankinen for as long as they need.

I feel like a lot of people see New Jersey last season and will try to follow a pattern to pick the Canucks to be them this season, but that was a lot of injuries that took New Jersey down and can happen to any team at any time. There are always unpredictable factors that happen during an 82 game season but going into 2024-25 the Canucks should fit firmly into the #2 spot in the Pacific behind Edmonton.

 

[Bourne Endeavor]

My only real concern is Demko. While our defense isn't stellar by any means, it's far from bad. Upfront, we are fairly strong--arguably more so than last year, especially if Pettersson can get back on track and Debrusk works out.

I'm actually more confident than some Boeser can keep pace with his 40 goal production since a lot of his regression had to do with nagging injuries and the death of his father. Not to mention, the downright dismal state of the team in those years. Not so certain about Hoglander though.

All in all, barring a complete collapse, I don't see us slipping out of the top three at all. Vegas and LA haven't done a whole lot to improve. At least not to the point where they're clearly a better team. Even Edmonton is still a question mark given the jekyll and hyde year they had.

Outside injuries causing any derailment, I think we'll battle Edmonton all season for 1st in the division but a hot start could put Vegas or LA in that conversation too. All four of us will be playoff teams though. I actually don't see the west changing at all. None of the teams that missed did much to make the jump.