Team w/o Pietrangelo

[Celtic Note]

We have spent a lot of time discussing how to fit Pietrangelo and some time about what to do without him, but I feel like we haven spent much time talking about the team without him given the relatively new information about a flat cap for a few years. So, how would that change things in a scenario where he walks?

What does the lineup look like? What holes exist? Can we fill those holes?

What does the cap situation look like assuming it’s flat for three years?

How does this impact our ability to compete for the Cup? How does a flat cap change the would be competitors?

I am sure there are more questions to ponder, but that is off the top of my head.

I guess I am just wanting to talk about standard hockey topics, instead of the current external impacts on the game. Or in other words, get back to the fun of discussing our shared interest in the Blues and what we envision for the team.

Click to read more...

 

[Mike Liut]

The Blues would move Tarasenko before they’d let Petro walk

 

[Brockon]

As tight as next season looks capwise - the end of 2020-21 is going to see major changes hit the team. Additionally, we lose a guy to Seattle from this list (some exceptions due to not being done 2 pro seasons of course).

10 players under contract for 2021/22 currently (as listed below) - 47.3M spent of 81.5M, leaving 34.2M to fill 13 roster spots for the 2021-22 season. Asterisk denote pending UFA/RFA at end 2021-22 season.

Xxx - ROR - Perron*
Schenn - xxx - Tarasenko
Blais* - Sundqvist - xxx
Macmac* - xxx - xxx

Scandella - Parayko*
Mikkola* - Faulk
Bortuzzo* - xxx

Xxx
Xxx

I'd expect Thomas, Schwartz, Kyrou, Binnington to have significant cap hits. These might necessitate a trade of letting a guy walk in free agency.

I'd expect Sanford, Barbashev, Allen, Perunovich, Mikkola to have moderate cap hits.

I'd expect Gunnarson, Kostin, Husso to resign for low cap hits.

Edit: not sure why Capfriendly.com lists 10 players under contract... Mikkola wasn't on any list and that's 11/12 under contract from above by my count...

 

[TheBluePenguin]

The Blues would move Tarasenko before they’d let Petro walk

I still do not see this happening, I would much rather overpay with picks to dump Allen and Bozak then trade Vladdy. Not to mention he has a full NTC

 

[simon IC]

I see it in pretty much black and white terms. Pietrangelo leaves and our Cup window closes. Period. I honestly think he is that integral to our playoff success. Our defense in particular takes a huge hit. Without Pietrangelo, we have one defenseman in the very good/elite category in Colton Parayko. After that, we have a bunch of guys that range from adequate to good. That defense is not good enough to win a SC, IMO. If Pietrangelo leaves we go into at least a retool, possibly a rebuild.

 

[izzy]

We need petro to compete, all the other dmen are nearly one dimensional, while petro is an all around solid dman.

I love Parayko, but with his play style he’s likely to stay around 40 points at best. I’d prefer not to have to overplay Dunn or Faulk to get offense from them either. I think Petro walking murders the chance of winning another cup with this core.

 

[Brian39]

I largely agree with @simon IC . I don't think a Petro-less Blues team is a contender unless Kyrou immediately improves to a 50 point guy AND one of Dunn, Faulk or Perunovich is immediately a top 25 NHL D man. Our team is built on being a good (but not great) offense that plays a defense-minded game to support an elite blue line. We are one of only 2 teams in the cap era to win the Cup without being one of the top 5 teams in goals per game in the playoffs. Our offense has a well balanced attack that can score goals but we rarely take over a game offensively. We rely on our blue line for a lot of points and Petro is easily our best D man at doing that. With the direction the NHL has gone, I don'tsee how our forward group is good enough to win without an elite blue line.

Petro is a top 10 NHL D man. There is no internal replacement. The absolute best case scenario is that you get 2 D men to take huge strides in the offseason, split up Petro's roles between them and get them to provide most of what Petro provides. The blue line can still be good without Petro, but it isn't elite. And this team isn't good enough everywhere else to contend with a good-but-not-elite blue line.

To contend without Petro, we need both of the following to happen:

1: Mikkola is immediately ready to play 21+ minutes a night of above average defensive play vs other teams' top 6 (and 2:30+ of PK time a night).
2: Kyrou is a legit top 6 forward next year. Not a guy who can hang on the 2nd line. A legit, true top 6 forward on and off the puck.

In addition to those things we also need one of the following things to happen:

3a: Dunn is given the #1 offensive D roll and goes from 25-35 point guy to 40-45 point guy AND either Faulk or Perunovich is a 25-35 point guy in a 3rd pairing role
3b: Faulk takes the #1 offensive D roll, returns to 40+ point form AND either Dunn and Perunovich can be a 30 point guy in a 3rd pairing role
3c: Perunovich is a rookie of the year candidate AND Dunn/Faulk see slight improvements from their play this year

I don't think we see all of those conditions met and if they don't get met then we are a good team that is a tier below the top contenders in a division that is getting ridiculously good at the top. If we're not willing to give Petro a good enough contract to stay, then there is zero reason to believe we would overpay a game changing forward UFA by an even larger margin a summer from now. A flat cap is going to make every team around the league even less willing to trade high end players who aren't overpaid, so the game changing forward isn't coming from outside the organization. We don't have any prospects with that upside, so the offense isn't taking major leaps in the next couple years. By the time we might acquire a game changing forward, Perron is exiting the productive stage of his career, ROR and Tarasenko are hitting UFA and who knows where Schwartz is.

I realize that I'm veering the topic away from the original question, but my point is that I don't think a flat cap changes what we should do much if we let Petro walk. I don't think we are contenders next year without Petro, so letting him walk should trigger at least a retool to focus on 2021/22 and beyond. If we aren't willing to pay Petro now, we also shouldn't be willing to pay Schwartz the contract he will require to stay because it will require as much pain/overpay at the end. If that is the case, then we should trade him this summer and return an asset for him before he walks as a UFA. At that point, you should fully commit and move Allen/Bozak mid-season because they certainly have value at that point (especially since you can retain major salary on both). At this point, the flat cap isn't much of an issue because we wouldn't be spending up to the cap until a couple years down the line.

Any conversation about Petro walking needs to be about whether this team should

1: try to do a 1 year retool with a focus towards reopening a window that will close 2-3 years later

or

2: try to do a 2-3 year retool with a focus towards reopening a window that might stay open for 4-5 years.

I think those are the realistic avenues to another Cup. I also don't think we will do either and will instead be a competitive team that isn't good enough to reach the Final again under the current ROR/Tarasenko deals. And then we would have to go through a major rebuild.

I think all of those 3 options are worse than just paying Petro his f***ing money, keeping the window on a damn good team open and dealing with the pain in 4-6 years. Our absolute only avenue to remaining a contender without Petro requires multiple prospects to take huge leaps quickly. Which begs the question: wouldn't we be incredible if all that happened AND we kept Petro?

 

[Mike Liut]

I still do not see this happening, I would much rather overpay with picks to dump Allen and Bozak then trade Vladdy. Not to mention he has a full NTC

You’re probably right. Makes more sense to add incentive than move Vladdy or Jaden.

 

[Robb_K]

I see it in pretty much black and white terms. Pietrangelo leaves and our Cup window closes. Period. I honestly think he is that integral to our playoff success. Our defense in particular takes a huge hit. Without Pietrangelo, we have one defenseman in the very good/elite category in Colton Parayko. After that, we have a bunch of guys that range from adequate to good. That defense is not good enough to win a SC, IMO. If Pietrangelo leaves we go into at least a retool, possibly a rebuild.

I agree 100%!

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Y’all are overreacting. Our team is deep and talented. We were the best team in conference without Tarasenko this year. Losing Petro would hurt, but guys like Dunn and Faulk have more to give in expanded minutes. Parayko would put up more points in offensive role. Perunovich is top prospect. We are still one of the top few teams in West without Petro and would still be a contender.

 

[Klank Loves You]

Y’all are overreacting. Our team is deep and talented. We were the best team in conference without Tarasenko this year. Losing Petro would hurt, but guys like Dunn and Faulk have more to give in expanded minutes. Parayko would put up more points in offensive role. Perunovich is top prospect. We are still one of the top few teams in West without Petro and would still be a contender.

100% disagree. Dunn is a role player and asking Faulk to do what Pie does is laughable. Having 2 top 10 DMan on the ice for 55 minutes is a big part of why we won it all last year.

 

[Stealth JD]

Dunn-Parayko
Gunnar-Faulk
Scandella-Bortuzzo
Mikkola-Perunovich


...that's...not great. You could pair Scandella & Parayko together as the shut-down unit, but there's no ideal groupings for the other guys in my opinion without Petro. I still don't like Dunn and Faulk on the roster together, let alone on the same pairing. I'd actively shop the latter, and begrudgingly move the former as a contingency. Perunovich, a lefty who plays the right side, could effectively replace either guy after a half-season. Either way, this team without Pietrangelo is still a playoff-team due to the forward-depth and goaltending. Tough to see them slaying any of the Cup-favorites though without #27 who has been the Blues' best playoff-performer year-in and year-out since his debut.

 

[ort]

We would still be a solid playoff team without Petro, but our days as a real contender would be instantly over.

 

[The Note]

I had some long post typed out but opted to spare you all my quarantine brain and hit some main points:

• Losing Pietrangelo would blow a hole in the defense and team at large. His departure would immediately knock the Blues from a clear top 3 in the West (along with VGK and COL) and into the next tier of playoff teams. It wouldn't "close the window" in the sense that I would still expect them to make the playoffs -and if you make it anything can happen- but they certainly wouldn't be favorites. I think if Petro walks they give it one more kick at the can then would have to give some serious thought to a retool.
• As far as the flat cap, I think they could retain most of the guys I would assume they'd like to keep around -with the biggest question marks being Schwartz and Binnington. I personally think we may lose Binnington to UFA regardless, as he does not seem to have an affinity for the organization and has been pretty open about it. I think if he has another good season and 2 strong playoffs (this season and next) he is almost as good as gone to the highest bidder, and it seemed his contract was custom built for such an opportunity. If that came to pass I assume we see a vet UFA goalie brought in on a cheap, short-term deal while Husso and Hofer battle it out for the 1B job.
• Dunn should be re-signed regardless, and the only way I see trading him make any sense is if some team wants to overpay for him. He's RFA with no arb. rights and should be able to be brought back for 2 years @ 1.75. Something in that ballpark. He fills a role on the team no one else on the back end brings as of now. Maybe he takes that next step and becomes a 2 way force. Either way -especially with Petro gone- the Blues will need some offense from the defense.
• I would really try and get Thomas to sign a longer term deal (5+ years) at a reasonable cap hit that might be a slight overpay in the beginning. Buy out some UFA years but still give him that kick at UFA when he's 28-29. None of the other RFA's will be due significantly high raises, barring a breakout from Sanford/Kyrou/Kostin.
• The expansion draft adds another element to all of this that has to be considered. The team will lose another relatively valuable piece then. *edited*
• Sure would be nice to not have Faulk and his cap hit on the team right now. I will forever be miffed by that extension and it could prove even more costly than just paying a middle pair dman $6.5 AAV for the next 7 years.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I don’t think there are any deals in the expansion draft to designate the player Vegas or Seattle would draft. There is only precedent of deals to trade assets in order to protect additional players. I don’t think Armstrong can make a trade that ensures Seattle takes Faulk.

 

[The Note]

I don’t think there are any deals in the expansion draft to designate the player Vegas or Seattle would draft. There is only precedent of deals to trade assets in order to protect additional players. I don’t think Armstrong can make a trade that ensures Seattle takes Faulk.

You are correct. Don’t know how I got that mixed up.

 

[Celtic Note]

I am going to wait till I have more time to compose my thoughts, but I am enjoying reading these well throughout responses.

 

[Brian39]

I don’t think there are any deals in the expansion draft to designate the player Vegas or Seattle would draft. There is only precedent of deals to trade assets in order to protect additional players. I don’t think Armstrong can make a trade that ensures Seattle takes Faulk.

All of the trades made by teams with Vegas were described as agreements for Vegas to select specific players and were submitted to the league as "expansion draft considerations" with the specific considerations spelled out in the conference call with the league.

The Penguins traded a 2nd rounder to Vegas to ensure that the Knights selected Fleury. The Pens wanted to free up the cap space and it was reported that Fleury would only agree to waive his NMC if he was guaranteed to be selected by Vegas in advance.

The Panthers traded Reilly Smith to Vegas in exchange for the Knights selecting Marchessault. The new management group in Florida was really down on Marchessault and wanted to make sure that Vegas took on him and his contract.

GMs can absolutely make deals to ensure Seattle takes a specific player for the same reason you can make a trade to ensure Seattle doesn't take a specific player: it is simply an agreement with Seattle. Seattle doesn't have the ability to grant additional protection slots beyond what the league allows you to protect. They can put it in writing that they won't submit a guy if you trade them XYZ and they can put it in writing that they will select a specific guy if you trade them XYZ.

If for some reason you could only make a trade to protect additional players, you could get around that by just trading XYZ to Vegas in exchange for protecting every draft eligible player but 1.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

That Florida deal smells worse with the years.

 

[Brockon]

I don’t think there are any deals in the expansion draft to designate the player Vegas or Seattle would draft. There is only precedent of deals to trade assets in order to protect additional players. I don’t think Armstrong can make a trade that ensures Seattle takes Faulk.

I mean that depends on how much faith you place in semantics coming from sports writers...

Some reported deals Vegas made during their expansion make some sense from a extra protection standpoint. There are others there's absolutely no way Vegas chose without having an established deal in place. Full article at bottom of post for reference.

The clearest example of this is Vegas getting the following from the NYI: "a first-round pick in 2017 (15th overall) and a second-round pick in 2019 and defenseman Jake Bischoff so the Knights would take on minor-league goaltender J-F Berube and forward Mikhail Grabovski." Mikhail Grabovski - a player who last played his last game in 2015-16, a full year before the Vegas expansion.

JF Berube over Brock Nelson (16/17 season 20G,25A-45P) and Josh Bailey (16/17 season 13G,43A-56P)? JF Berube wasn't a highly regarded goalie prospect at the time, he was seen as an AHL starter or low end NHL backup days away from turning 25.

The Haula selection over Dumba? Tuch going could be seen as the bribe to not select either Brodin or Dumba, sure. But getting the David Clarkson contract from Columbus definitely stinks of a deal - the addition of a 2017 1st and 2019 2nd all but screams it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ed-at-the-nhl-expansion-draft/?outputType=amp

 

[Brian39]

Y’all are overreacting. Our team is deep and talented. We were the best team in conference without Tarasenko this year. Losing Petro would hurt, but guys like Dunn and Faulk have more to give in expanded minutes. Parayko would put up more points in offensive role. Perunovich is top prospect. We are still one of the top few teams in West without Petro and would still be a contender.

We would still be a good team, but not true contenders. Dallas is a good team that no one really describes as a contender. The Flyers are a good team that has little-to-no real shot at a Cup this year. Carolina is a good team that no one views as a contender. That is where the Blues would be (potentially a bit lower) without absolutely everything breaking right.

Giving Dunn and Fualk expanded minutes doesn't replace all of what Petro does and it also removes them from the role they are currently playing. Dunn is an amazing luxury on the 3rd pairing. If you put him in the top 6 to replace Petro's contribution, you now also have to replace Dunn's contribution on the 3rd pairing.

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

I think our team without Petro is similar to the 2016 team. They'll be one of the best teams in the league in the regular season, but the flaw in the roster on the back end will end up being our undoing in the playoffs. I think our team without Petro could feasibly get to the WCF, but like in 2016 where the offense couldn't quite deliver, the defense would end up being the Achilles heel.

I don’t think there are any deals in the expansion draft to designate the player Vegas or Seattle would draft. There is only precedent of deals to trade assets in order to protect additional players. I don’t think Armstrong can make a trade that ensures Seattle takes Faulk.

There were actually a few deals made that Vegas took a specific player in exchange for picks/players.
CBJ traded Karlsson+draft picks in order for Vegas to take David Clarkson.
Buffalo traded a 6th rounder for Vegas to take Carrier instead of an unnamed player.
Winnipeg swapped 1st round picks in order for Vegas to take pending UFA Thorburn.

 

[Blues0307]

Without Petro, the Cup window closes. It's as simple as that. He's the best player on the team and the most important. No other defenseman can take up his role, heck, not even a combination of them could. The Blues will do everything possible to make room for him to come back, and I don't see why they'll have any problems doing that, quite frankly. Bozak and Allen should be attractive trade bait for other teams. And even if we'd have to move Dunn, so be it. You do that all day to keep a player as good as Petro around.

 

[Stealth JD]

Without Petro, the Cup window closes. It's as simple as that. He's the best player on the team and the most important. No other defenseman can take up his role, heck, not even a combination of them could. The Blues will do everything possible to make room for him to come back, and I don't see why they'll have any problems doing that, quite frankly. Bozak and Allen should be attractive trade bait for other teams. And even if we'd have to move Dunn, so be it. You do that all day to keep a player as good as Petro around.

Yeah...if you're forced to become more top-heavy like Toronto, then so be it...you sacrifice your depth pieces in support of your stars, not the other way around. At one time the Blues had the luxury of having depth pieces making $5M+/year...but those days are gone.

 

[Brian39]

Yeah...if you're forced to become more top-heavy like Toronto, then so be it...you sacrifice your depth pieces in support of your stars, not the other way around.

The best part about being a Blues fan right now is that we just won't get that top heavy. Let's say we give Petro $10M a year. If we did that, our 3 highest paid players next year would be making $8M less than Toronto's 3 highest paid players. Our cap structure is fantastic and we can afford to keep Petro without having to sacrifice much meaningful depth.

At one time the Blues had the luxury of having depth pieces making $5M+/year...but those days are gone.

On the plus side, we have done an excellent job at building younger, cheaper depth within the organization. We do need to start shedding the more expensive depth, but having guys like Barby, Sanford, Blais, MacMac, Kostin, Kyrou, Mikkola, Perunovich and Thomas all making $1.5M or less next season means that those luxury pieces will get replaced with contributors. And then Sunny at $2.75M is just awesome.