Team Trajectory

[WarriorofTime]

We're gonna need a big free agent signing or a longshot like Dach or Katchouk to hit big to win a cup. Phillips or Allan becoming a second pairing anchor.

It's not easy. Lots of luck involved.

Hockey is stupid.

Katchouk? Incredibly random. Hawks have made 15 picks in the first three rounds the last two drafts and should be making a lot of picks next year as well. Hopefully some of them (besides just Bedard) hit and it would be very disappointing if none of them did and they didn’t have the foundations for top 6 and top 4 in there.

 

[TLEH]

Its more just saying you need a lot of depth and luck to win the cup. You are naive to think you get Bedard and a couple great prospects and you win a cup. Edmonton hasn't been competitive in a single western conference final with the two best players on the planet.

 

[Hattrick Kane]

Its more just saying you need a lot of depth and luck to win the cup. You are naive to think you get Bedard and a couple great prospects and you win a cup. Edmonton hasn't been competitive in a single western conference final with the two best players on the planet.

Because Edmonton drafted like shit apart from two players. For all intents, we’ve been drafting well with many more picks coming in the next few years.

 

[TLEH]

Because Edmonton drafted like shit apart from two players. For all intents, we’ve been drafting well with many more picks coming in the next few years.

Everything looks good until it doesn't. Mitchell, Boqvist, Beaudin. None were difference makers.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Its more just saying you need a lot of depth and luck to win the cup. You are naive to think you get Bedard and a couple great prospects and you win a cup. Edmonton hasn't been competitive in a single western conference final with the two best players on the planet.

Big difference between “need some prospects to hit to build depth” and pulling from the depths of the Hawks system at the moment to say they need to get lucky. Of course they gotta hit on multiple draft picks. Nobody denies that. They also don’t need a literal rabbit out the hat miracle.

 

[clydesdale line]

Everything looks good until it doesn't. Mitchell, Boqvist, Beaudin. None were difference makers.

All of those prospects from the old regime. So far this regime hasn't given us any inclination for pause yet.

 

[TLEH]

All of those prospects from the old regime. So far this regime hasn't given us any inclination for pause yet.

How is that statement any different than everything looks good until it doesn't? Kyle tore it down and won the lottery. I haven't seen anything that makes me make a decision one way or another on their prospect development or selections. Its still pretty fresh to make a decision either way.

Big difference between “need some prospects to hit to build depth” and pulling from the depths of the Hawks system at the moment to say they need to get lucky. Of course they gotta hit on multiple draft picks. Nobody denies that. They also don’t need a literal rabbit out the hat miracle.

I mean if they are going to win a cup I think they need a couple guys to way overhit their projections, yeah. Call it rabbit out of the hat or whatever, but signing Hossa for cheap and trading for Sharp for peanuts, as well as Hjalmarsson (4th round pick I think) being a freak is what we need to happen. Thats a lot of luck.

Say Bedard, Moore, Nazar, Korchinski, Reichel, Kaiser are all contributors. Jones stays decent for a bit. That is a pretty good scenario.

That is 7 out of 18 players that are contributors. You still need 3-5 more solid players to start talking about cups.

 

[clydesdale line]

How is that statement any different than everything looks good until it doesn't? Kyle tore it down and won the lottery. I haven't seen anything that makes me make a decision one way or another on their prospect development or selections. Its still pretty fresh to make a decision either way.

A few different scouts, different ideas, different philosophies, etc. Let's not act like Bowman wasn't gifted a top 3 pick which he used for Kirby Dach... who still young, this regime decided they did not want to keep around in the tear down. Again, this regime hasn't given us any inclination for pause YET.

 

[TLEH]

A few different scouts, different ideas, different philosophies, etc. Let's not act like Bowman wasn't gifted a top 3 pick which he used for Kirby Dach... who still young, this regime decided they did not want to keep around in the tear down. Again, this regime hasn't given us any inclination for pause YET.

I agree. Jury is still out on this regime. I liked the DeBrincat trade (after it came out he wouldn't talk extension with any team) and the Dach trade was fine. Feel like we are saying the same thing except different levels of optimism, (or skepticism).

Just feels like people are underestimating what it took for us to win back then. A lot went right, A LOT. Some of it being "rabbit out of a hat" type stuff.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Not everything needs to be identical to the 2010s Hawks. Lots of other teams have won as well, of course you need a combo of draft picks, trades and free agent signings to come together. We don’t need “specific thing” to happen the same way as last time. The hawks are pretty easily well positioned to be a team for the later 2020s and beyond as the current crop of competitive teams age out, given they have a generational prospect in hand along with a lot of draft capital. Nothing is guaranteed but that’s ok. Even if they don’t get a cup again, they certainly can have a good run of seasons, which is a lot better than the trajectory was looking two years ago.

 

[Dr Salt]

Yeah we'll have our own unique trajectory and I do think the combination of generational talent and being in Chicago gives us a great appeal for external adds. I really do think a lot of people while understandably thinking it will be a slower roll back into the playoffs, we've seen teams show it doesn't really have to take that long. Top-quality management gets the ball rolling fast once they want to build up and Davidson so far has given me reason to think he's just that.

 

[EbonyRaptor]

2023/24: Bedard, Reichel, Korchinski, Kaiser
2024/25: Nazar, Eiserman (drafted #2OA), Dach, Allan
2025/26: Moore, Greene, Misiak, del Mastro
2026:27: Hayes, Savoie, Rinzel

 

[giza]

I would expect them to be better than last year.....of course, that's not saying much, but I do want to see and expect improvement each year. I believe they will score more this year....it would be nice if they could hover around 500 the first half and end up with more than 70 points. Expect some selling at the trade deadline. Some of the young talent is likely a couple of years away so the following year might have more serious UFA's come aboard. Think in terms of 10 point increase increments year by year.

 

[ColbyChaos]

24' is a tank and the rest depends on whether or not amateur scouting and development can do and have done something they haven't done well for a very long time.

If they're average, as I would expect:

25- semi tank
26' danny gets antsy and the koolaid flows in hockey ops and they start building up the core too fast. playoff team with holes
27'-28' bad bets and some holes in scouting are identified and have to be corrected. Bad extensions have to be unwound as the cap fails to rise as much as hopes of media and fans and gms dream for the 13th time in the cap era. The bias that caused some "stay/go" calls on controlled players makes some heads roll.
29' new coach and/or gm comes in to make important core corrections
30' conference contending team.
31' serious contender

Do you and Poopsdman have a secret contest on who can provide the biggest and most outrageous L take on the boards?

 

[wladyslaw]

Three seasons from now you should see the full new core of forwards in the NHL. Bedard, Reichel, Moore, Nazar, and potentially next summer's 1st rounder. And then Korchinski on D. Just my opinion, but they should definitely be close to a WCF team at that point, at least if thery hit on those guys like we hope they did.

Agree--should Start to look like a Playoff team 25/26 season... especially IF some of Current D guys in system progress to real NHL D men (which is a Big question) - It is All about How many of these D prospects turn into Keith/Hammer types Versus --OK-- Murphy types--????? we shall see

Re: Forwards- I like to think they have at least 5-6 in System Now via --last 2 drafts... add 1-3 more in next 2 drafts...

Lastly-- Besides D guys "Panning out"-- How well does KD do In the UFA market?? Time will well- does He find the Next Hossa and Oduya out there in the Market//next 2-3 years--

 

[hawksfan50]

But "bad by design" for 23/24 may not be bad enough tobe bottom 5...Could be 9-10 level "bad"..

Reason...offense should be better with Bedard and Hall and Reichel (now full tine)and Foligno i and Donato are legit NHL competent players...T.Johnson will have motivation to have a good production season if he wants tobextend NHL career...

So with better offense Hawks may not be bad enough.Not horribly bad but just middling bad.

However tgere is always hope for defensive badness given$9.5 and the slow and not very alike Murphy "leadibg" that right side if the D and more hope of badness from Mrazek ...so there is a chance to be in on the Celebrini sweepstakes?

We shall see.
Do notcexpect lightning to strike again ....so maybe they're realistic hope is that we land 2nd or 3rd spot Fter lotto..

Then in 24/25 the hope is tgat Hawks finish still top 12 for the draft..By 25/26 maybe they are a bubble team...and by 26/27 a solid Cup contender drafting late again so time then to trade late picks for addi g the put over the top guys for pkayoffs at TDL.

 

[EmeticDonut]

Since the odds of success are far smaller than failure it's easier to predict failure and then you can do all the "told you so" on the internet.

 

[Ace Card Bedard]

Everything looks good until it doesn't. Mitchell, Boqvist, Beaudin. None were difference makers.

I remember when exciting young prospect Steve McArthy was going to be the next Keith Carney.
He wasn't.

 

[x Tame Impala]

We have about $20 million in cap hits on the books to start the 2024/25 season as well. There are lots of options. I'm not expecting to replicate how the Kane and Toews dynasty was built. That was then, this is now. Different circumstances and the available options back then may not present themselves this time around.

Draft and develop well, have great pro-scouting, don't make any stupid UFA signings, and hope for the best.

 

[hockeydoug]

Do you and Poopsdman have a secret contest on who can provide the biggest and most outrageous L take on the boards?

So a guess with some other semi specific guesses is outrageous.

Future is uncertain, scouts this/that, player a does this/that, maybe this happens, etc. That was covered by others.

Apologies to all for throwing specific guesses out there.

Great contribution again

"I'm going to make a bunch of assumptions, misread posts, say you're wrong and stupid, and contribute almost nothing to a discussion".

 

[Dr Salt]

How are we feeling about this a year later, looking back at what we thought, any changes for better or worse?

 

[Drumman44]

How are we feeling about this a year later, looking back at what we thought, any changes for better or worse?

Not a single soul mentioned Vlasic last summer. Makes you wonder who else may end up hitting?

 

[hockeydoug]

How are we feeling about this a year later, looking back at what we thought, any changes for better or worse?

Based on the overreaction to last year and the lower number of picks:

I think KD switched gears from the pick and prospect based pretty video game type build he had going on to building in the messy random reality that is successful NHL roster construction. I think he's getting farther away from ground level needle threading type decision making and this is good. Too early to change what I think the trajectory will be but..

I'm more optimistic.

 

[giza]

I see a lot more parity in the league----some of the bad teams got better, some of the good teams got worse. The Hawks certainly have more depth and it will be interesting how the lines develop, but they will really have to buy into the program and take very few nights off to get anywhere close to .500. That said, the valuable AHL devlopment year Slaggert, Nazar and a number of D should prove to be invaluable for the seasons after this.

 

[Northernhawk]

This season will be similar to the 2007-08 season…after four poor seasons of 79, 59, 65, 71 points they ended up with 88 points…only 3 pts out if the playoffs

This squad is coming off of four poor seasons of 55(in a 56 game season), 68, 59 and 52 points…

Having drafted 7 and 13 in 2022, 1 and 19 in 2023 and 2, 18 and 27 in 2024…look Chicago to be picking 14 and 16 next summer(yes Toronto will missing playoffs as well)