Team Trajectory

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

And we can go back and look at everyone on here talking about them being basically bridge deals back then when they were signed to them. Lots of revisionist history going on in here. I'm sure I could go back and point to plenty of posts that talked about how they were bridge deals, how we all knew they should have signed for bigger $$, etc. These deals were signed before they ever even won a Cup. They may not hit the exact definition of a bridge deal, but I'm sorry, we all knew they were signed to lower contracts than their worth back then. Without those deals, the Hawks 100% don't win 3 Cups, because they would have had to jettison far more talent than they did each year.

They were RFA's buying out one year of UFA. I could be misremembering but I certainly don't remember a ton of posts talking about them being bridge deals. They got market rate. Hammer Hossa and Keith were the sweetheart deals that made the cap work.

 

[Dominance]

All other arguing aside, if the Hawks aren't a playoff team by the time Bedard's ELC expires, I will consider the rebuild to have been a disappointment to that point. I think wanting the WCF 3-4 seasons from now isn't really a lofty ask, and will be year 5-6 of a rebuild. Somehow that's asking for too much?

Who do you envision comprising that playoff team three short years from now? In an ideal situation, Korchinski might be a top pair D, the other prospects may have rounded out a solid top-4, and guys like Reichel and Moore are hitting their stride as top-6 players. But the team would just be beginning to come into its own.

 

[clydesdale line]

They were RFA's buying out one year of UFA. I could be misremembering but I certainly don't remember a ton of posts talking about them being bridge deals. They got market rate. Hammer Hossa and Keith were the sweetheart deals that made the cap work.

This is correct.

 

[HawksDub89]

I realize that. Both the first point, and the last point. Where did I ever argue otherwise?

Then you should realize how crazy your expectations are.

Even if all these guys “hit” they’ll still only be 22-23 years old. Expecting a WCF appearance out of them is crazy. And again, that’s assuming everything goes perfectly in their development.

 

[TLEH]

Personally don't think a 5 year deal is a bridge deal.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

Personally don't think a 5 year deal is a bridge deal.

Because buying up a year of free agency coming off an ELC by almost every definition isn't.

 

[ChiHawks10]

Maybe I'm misremembering then, but I still think it's going to be tough to field a true contender roster for an extended period of time, without having your stars starring while on ELCs, or taking smaller deals, and seriously overperforming on those contracts.

I really don't remember anyone thinking T&K weren't underpaid during the Cup years, though. Those contracts were peanuts relative to their contributions.

Sid was at 8.7 during the same time period.
Malkin was at 8.7 during the same time period.
Ovie was at 9.5 during the same time period.

I think T&K were being paid closer to elite tier contract money, and not star player money, which is why the Hawks were able to keep as many good teams together as they were during those years.

Their contracts were more in line with the Sedins, Backstrom, Getzlaf, etc.

 

[Pez68]

Seattle and Vegas should show everyone here what is possible with intelligent team building. If the Hawks hit on their major picks while tanking, they should be able to find the appropriate pieces via free agency and castoffs to contend. There's sooooo much untapped potential in the NHL.

 

[Sarava]

Who do you envision comprising that playoff team three short years from now? In an ideal situation, Korchinski might be a top pair D, the other prospects may have rounded out a solid top-4, and guys like Reichel and Moore are hitting their stride as top-6 players. But the team would just be beginning to come into its own.

I think the one trap we sometimes get caught up in is assuming everything is dependent on the timeline of the prospects developing. Some of those prospects will bust. And some of those positions will be filled from outside the organization.

And even though the contract isn't the greatest, that Seth Jones already has a top 3 spot covered on D is huge.

I think the Hawks are in a very unique position going forward. When has a team that players around the league view as highly desired to play for - had a budding generational superstar to play with? It hasn't happened probably in decades. This isn't Edmonton, Pittsburgh or Washington DC. Players want to play in Chicago. They've made that clear long before the Hawks won this draft lottery.

What I'm getting at is - assuming Bedard proves to be as good as advertised in the next year or two, I think the Hawks won't have a shortage of good players wanting to come here and be part of this.

This doesn't have to take 5 or 6 years, and as someone above said, Vegas and Seattle are showing that.

I side with ChiHawks10 on this. I doubt they will make the playoffs during Bedard's ELC years, but will probably be a handful for the NHL to deal with by his 4th season.

 

[cassac]

Honestly, they don’t need to make the playoffs during Bedard’s ELC. I think the key is locking up good players long term prior to developing into stars.

Besides Bedard, there isn’t any prospect that looks like a huge cap hit player. However, Reichel is on the last year of his ELC and looks to be a player you good depend on for the next eight years. Signing him to a long contract with a modest cap hit like Colorado has done with their stars would go a long way to staying healthy cap wise.

This is how burning early years on ELCs can pay off if done properly. Identifying top six forwards and top four defensemen while still developing and being able to lock them up long term before they put up results that would demand a large contract. Then, do not be afraid to trade those players prior to signing a big contract for futures ( picks or prospects). If the prospect system is healthy, they can be replaced from the system and ensure long term success.

 

[EbonyRaptor]

By year three of Bedard's career, the Hawks should be competing for a playoff spot. By year 5, they better be a WC Final caliber team. By year 6, SC contender until Bedard starts slowing down around 35 or so.

Blackhawks will need to make a shrewd signing and/or trade for this to happen, which I believe KD can do. The next two years will be, imo, about finding the core to surround Bedard. Hopefeully that includes Kor, Nazar, Miller, Vlasic (I'd forgotten how big Vlasic is), etc. As I said before, the Blackhawks will have to make a move or two in FA in the next 2 seasons.

Who is Miller - did you mean Moore?

The use of the word trajectory is interesting in applying it to a rebuild. Trajectories are exact things. They can be mathematically calculated using angle of trajectory, energy and mass at time of launch, etc. Rebuilds - not so exact. The only factor that can maybe be applied to the Hawks rebuild is the initial energy used at launch which was substantial when KD basically stripped the team down to the studs by trading Hagel, DCat, Dach and others.

In keeping with the trajectory analogy - it is incumbent to let the rebuild travel the entire distance required to hit the target - any changes made midflight will fall short or the target.

 

[ChiHawks10]

Who is Miller - did you mean Moore?

The use of the word trajectory is interesting in applying it to a rebuild. Trajectories are exact things. They can be mathematically calculated using angle of trajectory, energy and mass at time of launch, etc. Rebuilds - not so exact. The only factor that can maybe be applied to the Hawks rebuild is the initial energy used at launch which was substantial when KD basically stripped the team down to the studs by trading Hagel, DCat, Dach and others.

In keeping with the trajectory analogy - it is incumbent to let the rebuild travel the entire distance required to hit the target - any changes made midflight will fall short or the target.

The difference being here... a rebuild is not a fixed thing. There is no pre-determined time, length, etc. So everyone here talking about "Can't stop mid-rebuild, can't screw things up mid-rebuild, can't stop the rebuild early, have to let it play out the "full time or distance" all sound a little silly, IMO. You can't apply any kind of fixed data to it in any real way. Bedard is the closest you'll get to a fixed data point, and even that's not a guarantee.

A rebuild can take 2 years, 3 years, 5 years, 7 years, or who knows how long. It's entirely dependent upon the players. If every player hits, this team could be in the WCF, or winning a Cup, as soon as they're all in the NHL. If all but Bedard bust, they could still be in rebuild limbo 6 or 7 years from now. Then there are the surprises or late bloomers that figure it out, that you may have gotten in later rounds. Then throw in FA signings and such...

I hate when people act like there's some sort of pre-determined time that needs to pass for a rebuild to be successful, because the truth of the matter is... there's just no way to actually predict it. It can be short or long, depending upon the players, and how well of a job the scouting department did. The rebuild is complete, when the rebuild is complete. It doesn't matter if that's this season, 2 seasons from now, or 6 seasons from now. It happens when it happens.

 

[Hattrick Kane]

I think the one trap we sometimes get caught up in is assuming everything is dependent on the timeline of the prospects developing. Some of those prospects will bust. And some of those positions will be filled from outside the organization.

And even though the contract isn't the greatest, that Seth Jones already has a top 3 spot covered on D is huge.

I think the Hawks are in a very unique position going forward. When has a team that players around the league view as highly desired to play for - had a budding generational superstar to play with? It hasn't happened probably in decades. This isn't Edmonton, Pittsburgh or Washington DC. Players want to play in Chicago. They've made that clear long before the Hawks won this draft lottery.

What I'm getting at is - assuming Bedard proves to be as good as advertised in the next year or two, I think the Hawks won't have a shortage of good players wanting to come here and be part of this.

This doesn't have to take 5 or 6 years, and as someone above said, Vegas and Seattle are showing that.

I side with ChiHawks10 on this. I doubt they will make the playoffs during Bedard's ELC years, but will probably be a handful for the NHL to deal with by his 4th season.

I don’t necessarily disagree with your point, but the team needs to be careful in free agency.

Go to the Leafs board, and see what they voted Dubas’s worst move. It was signing John Tavares. It completely screwed up a young team on the rise both in cap structure and expectation.

 

[x Tame Impala]

“Prospect development will determine the speed of the rebuild” -Kyle Davidson paraphrase

 

[EbonyRaptor]

The difference being here... a rebuild is not a fixed thing. There is no pre-determined time, length, etc. So everyone here talking about "Can't stop mid-rebuild, can't screw things up mid-rebuild, can't stop the rebuild early, have to let it play out the "full time or distance" all sound a little silly, IMO. You can't apply any kind of fixed data to it in any real way. Bedard is the closest you'll get to a fixed data point, and even that's not a guarantee.

A rebuild can take 2 years, 3 years, 5 years, 7 years, or who knows how long. It's entirely dependent upon the players. If every player hits, this team could be in the WCF, or winning a Cup, as soon as they're all in the NHL. If all but Bedard bust, they could still be in rebuild limbo 6 or 7 years from now. Then there are the surprises or late bloomers that figure it out, that you may have gotten in later rounds. Then throw in FA signings and such...

I hate when people act like there's some sort of pre-determined time that needs to pass for a rebuild to be successful, because the truth of the matter is... there's just no way to actually predict it. It can be short or long, depending upon the players, and how well of a job the scouting department did. The rebuild is complete, when the rebuild is complete. It doesn't matter if that's this season, 2 seasons from now, or 6 seasons from now. It happens when it happens.

Yeah - that's why I thought the word trajectory is not applicable in the literal sense. It's usage is loosely understood to mean progress being made within a somewhat vague timeline. More or less is the team getting better in a timely fashion - where "timely" is subjective.

I think a rebuild timeline can be somewhat accurate in terms of what still needs to be done and the estimated minimum time to accomplish those things. In the case of the Hawks I think it's reasonable to estimate the time it will take to sort out the defensive prospects and get the keepers enough game time experience to be effective to be a minimum of 2-3 years. Hence the rebuild timeline should start there based on what we know today.

 

[ChiHawks10]

Yeah - that's why I thought the word trajectory is not applicable in the literal sense. It's usage is loosely understood to mean progress being made within a somewhat vague timeline. More or less is the team getting better in a timely fashion - where "timely" is subjective.

I think a rebuild timeline can be somewhat accurate in terms of what still needs to be done and the estimated minimum time to accomplish those things. In the case of the Hawks I think it's reasonable to estimate the time it will take to sort out the defensive prospects and get the keepers enough game time experience to be effective to be a minimum of 2-3 years. Hence the rebuild timeline should start there based on what we know today.

Yeah, I wasn't necessarily directing that post at you. I just see people say it all day, every day, on here, and it's kind of silly that people seem to think there's some magical established point that you have to get to in order to actually successfully rebuild.

 

[hockeydoug]

24' is a tank and the rest depends on whether or not amateur scouting and development can do and have done something they haven't done well for a very long time.

If they're average, as I would expect:

25- semi tank
26' danny gets antsy and the koolaid flows in hockey ops and they start building up the core too fast. playoff team with holes
27'-28' bad bets and some holes in scouting are identified and have to be corrected. Bad extensions have to be unwound as the cap fails to rise as much as hopes of media and fans and gms dream for the 13th time in the cap era. The bias that caused some "stay/go" calls on controlled players makes some heads roll.
29' new coach and/or gm comes in to make important core corrections
30' conference contending team.
31' serious contender

 

[x Tame Impala]

We need one more franchise talent IMHO. I don’t know if Korchinski is that guy or not but I don’t think we can get by on Bedard and a few of our current prospects hitting

 

[EbonyRaptor]

Yeah, I wasn't necessarily directing that post at you. I just see people say it all day, every day, on here, and it's kind of silly that people seem to think there's some magical established point that you have to get to in order to actually successfully rebuild.

I'm being hypocritical by saying this because I'm usually as impatient or more so as the next guy, but it drives be bonkers when I read so many fellow Hawks fans being impatient with the rebuild and suggesting the acquisition of this guy or that guy when it would serve only to make the 2023/24 team better which is not the objective of the rebuild plan for the 2023/24 season.

 

[gach]

I thought last years team was going to be god awful and they turned out to better than I was expecting so I think this years team is better and is going to surprise all of us.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

We're gonna need a big free agent signing or a longshot like Dach or Katchouk to hit big to win a cup. Phillips or Allan becoming a second pairing anchor.

It's not easy. Lots of luck involved.

Hockey is stupid.

 

[LavalPhantom]

We're gonna need a big free agent signing or a longshot like Dach or Katchouk to hit big to win a cup. Phillips or Allan becoming a second pairing anchor.

It's not easy. Lots of luck involved.

Hockey is stupid.

I think a big free agent signing should almost be expected at some point.

 

[x Tame Impala]

McDavid and or Draisaitl are non zero possibilities to sign as well

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

2023-24 = Some improvements and Bedard/Reichel/Few kids on D get regular roles. Draft 1-8 range
2024-25 = Hawks start to come together as a few more kids/FA's make lineup. Draft in 6-13 range
2025-26 = Hawks are in playoff picture at times thru year but fall short. More kids join team while trades/FA become even more appealing to management. Draft in 10-14 range
2026-27 = Hawks are in playoffs

That is my view

Give or take a year. I could see things coming together for playoffs in 2025-26 but think this is more akin to 06-09

This past year was 2005-2006 hitting rock bottom

 

[Giovi]

We're gonna need a big free agent signing or a longshot like Dach or Katchouk to hit big to win a cup. Phillips or Allan becoming a second pairing anchor.

It's not easy. Lots of luck involved.

Hockey is stupid.

Katchouk is what he is going to be.