WC: Team Slovakia

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It's great that you feel things, but if we collect and gather all the data regarding productivity of the top 12 Latvian and the top 12 Slovakian forwards using their 2018/19 PPG numbers and then convert them to NHL point equivalency, this is what you get:
1st line Latvia 0.46 NHLe vs. 0.48 NHLe 1st line Slovakia
2nd line Latvia 0.32 NHLe vs. 0.27 NHLe 2nd line Slovakia
3nd line Latvia 0.35 NHLe vs. 0.22 NHLe 3rd line Slovakia

The Latvian 4th line is roughly the same as yours, except for 0.63 PPG Bondra. I have no idea what's he doing in this lineup at all, Latvian B/C team forwards have managed to get 0.50 PPG in Slovakia.

Basically, it turns out we're actually a little better offensively, we have a significantly deeper bottom 6.

I also noticed a very strong selection bias in favor of some players based in your domestic league. There's a guy on your 2nd or 3rd line wing who was a Swedish 3rd division player last season and didn't manage to record any points in Allsvenskan. This season he's been productive in Slovakia, but since the level of your league has dropped so much, you might have a player selection problem with your GM still living in the past.

As for goalies, there's this thing called statistical variance. The expected SVS% doesn't change game by game. A better goalie is a better goalie.
What is your point here, mate? No need to compare Slovakia with Latvia. There is a really small chance that we will meet.
 
I have zero expectations for this team, but this may be a good thing. In the past when I have hoped, it has not turned out well. We could really use a Paul stastny right now ;)
 
Who will be in net for Slovakia? Any doubts? I think it would be Ciliak but Im not sure. So?
 
It's great that you feel things, but if we collect and gather all the data regarding productivity of the top 12 Latvian and the top 12 Slovakian forwards using their 2018/19 PPG numbers and then convert them to NHL point equivalency, this is what you get:
1st line Latvia 0.46 NHLe vs. 0.48 NHLe 1st line Slovakia
2nd line Latvia 0.32 NHLe vs. 0.27 NHLe 2nd line Slovakia
3nd line Latvia 0.35 NHLe vs. 0.22 NHLe 3rd line Slovakia

The Latvian 4th line is roughly the same as yours, except for 0.63 PPG Bondra. I have no idea what's he doing in this lineup at all, Latvian B/C team forwards have managed to get 0.50 PPG in Slovakia.

Basically, it turns out we're actually a little better offensively, we have a significantly deeper bottom 6.

I also noticed a very strong selection bias in favor of some players based in your domestic league. There's a guy on your 2nd or 3rd line wing who was a Swedish 3rd division player last season and didn't manage to record any points in Allsvenskan. This season he's been productive in Slovakia, but since the level of your league has dropped so much, you might have a player selection problem with your GM still living in the past.

As for goalies, there's this thing called statistical variance. The expected SVS% doesn't change game by game. A better goalie is a better goalie.

There's no such thing as converting anything into NHL point equivalency. If things were this simple NHL teams would only sign the highest productive players out of Europe, and the highest productive AHL'ers would always make the best NHL'ers. That's not the case though. Heck, Slovakia even cut Martin Bakos, one of their most productive players in the European leagues the last few years, from the team.

Tatar is way better than any forward Latvia has. Panik is quite comfortably better than anyone they have as well. It's accurate that Latvia has some more depth up front, though some of them are interchangeable with the likes of Marko Dano, Michal Kristof and Libor Hudacek. On defense there's just no contest though. Slovakia has significantly stronger names at this position. Latvia has the clear advantage in goal, but all he can do is save pucks. He can't help transition like the Slovak defence can.

Looking forward to seeing Merzlikins in the NHL. I've liked him for many years. Latvia defenitely has a chance to beat the Czech's or Switzerland and make the QF's. But Slovakia should have a pretty decent chance of being the 3rd seed in their group. If they can pull off an upset against Canada or USA they could even be a #2 seed. We have defenitely seen Canada and USA struggle in the World Championships before, certainly early in the tournaments, and Slovakia will face USA in the opening game.
 
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Do I think that Slovakia will make the semifinals? No. Like someone said in this thread or another, history tells us that Slovakia seem to dissapoint when the expectations are high. And they didn't have a great showing last time they played the tournament on home ice. But on paper, Slovakia defenitely has an edge on Latvia. On paper they might even be on par with Finland this year. Traditionally speaking however, Finland often does well with teams that aren't very strong on paper. And they did indeed play well in the EHT the past weekend like someone pointed out.
 
OT win against Norway isn't great, but what did the shots end up? 37-12 at one point is encouraging. Good that Panik continues to score in the pregames as well.
 
OT win against Norway isn't great, but what did the shots end up? 37-12 at one point is encouraging. Good that Panik continues to score in the pregames as well.

45-17 at end. optically we dominate during this game. we had a lot of clear goal chances, but we could't score a goal. today we missed our top 2 centers Kristof and Hudacek, but despite that i think we've played the nicest hockey in recent 7-8 years
 
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45-17 at end. optically we dominate during this game. we had a lot of clear goal chances, but we could't score a goal. today we missed our top 2 centers Kristof and Hudacek, but despite that i think we've played the nicest hockey in recent 7-8 years

That's encouraging. Level of play is more important than results at this point. What were the lines and pairings?
 
who has been on first powerplay unit?
Sekera Cernak
Tatar Sukel Panik

Although, they havent been chosen a special teams yet. I suppose that Sukel would be exchanged for Nagy, Hudacek or Kristof.

That's encouraging. Level of play is more important than results at this point. What were the lines and pairings?
Patrik Rybár - Černák, Sekera, Jaroš, Marinčin, Marek Ďaloga, Fehérváry, Čajkovský, Koch - Pánik, M. Sukeľ, Tatar - Studenič, Zigo, Marko Daňo - Lantoši, T. Marcinko, D. Bondra - Liška, Buc, Buček

Dont expect any changes in defensive part. Grman is out because of the injury.
In offense, Nagy, Lunter, Kristof and Hudacek were missing. Probably Lunter is definitely out. Final decision will come tomorrow.
 
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What's Zigo's story? He seems to be a good player and apparently liked by NT staff but doesn't really deliver at club level. Why is that?
 
There's no such thing as converting anything into NHL point equivalency. If things were this simple NHL teams would only sign the highest productive players out of Europe, and the highest productive AHL'ers would always make the best NHL'ers.
Yes, it's literally a thing. NHLe holds predictive power.

Yes, NHL teams literally sign the most productive (NHLe) players accounting for size/physicality and other North American factors relating to rink size and style of play.

The most productive AHLers accounting for size/physicality are usually proportionally more productive than less productive AHLers.

There are too many factors at play to use the term 'always'. It's absurd.

NHLe is the best possible tool for fact-based comparisons of different national teams consisting of major pro players.

Your post clearly confuses quality with branding. Slovakia has a better brand, they have had success historically, they have some star players. None of that matters. Our forward corps is objectively better. And, yes, we have 3 players of the same caliber as Panik. You sound uninformed.
 
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What's Zigo's story? He seems to be a good player and apparently liked by NT staff but doesn't really deliver at club level. Why is that?
Actually, it was kind of surprising. When slovakian play-off ended, they prefered Zigo before Lamper . Probably nobody expected that. Ramsay did not call him ever before. Zigo is great grinder IMO, though.

If he can make it to final nomination(and after 2g in last 2games, I can say it looks promising for him), he would be in checking line. In Norway game, they just tried him in a different role – if he can handle it.
 
Blueger, Balcers, Darzins

Panik is an established top nine winger at the NHL level and can play a complimentary top six role in a pinch. None of Blueger, Balcers or Darzins has proven to have those capabilites yet. What you have proven in the NHL holds more water than "adjusted points" between leagues.

Panik in his last three seasons: 229 games played, 50 goals, 112 points.

Balcers in his NHL career: 36 games, 5 goals, 14 points.

Blueger in his NHL career: 28 games, 6 goals, 10 points.

Even if you go by AHL numbers (again, adjusting numbers between leagues is pointless, so idk why anyone would), Panik showed better production there as well before his NHL career took off.
 
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Blueger, Balcers, Darzins
Blugers and Balcers. Solid players, definitely. They need to confirm their first seasons, though... Marko Dano has made 21 pts in 35 games(quite better than Blugers and Balcers) in his very first season in NHL for CBJ. And now he is average AHL player... Panik could handle it and thats why I consider him like a better player.

Darzins never made it to NHL. Panik has already more than four hundred games there. I really need to say more?...
 
It's great that you feel things, but if we collect and gather all the data regarding productivity of the top 12 Latvian and the top 12 Slovakian forwards using their 2018/19 PPG numbers and then convert them to NHL point equivalency, this is what you get:
1st line Latvia 0.46 NHLe vs. 0.48 NHLe 1st line Slovakia
2nd line Latvia 0.32 NHLe vs. 0.27 NHLe 2nd line Slovakia
3nd line Latvia 0.35 NHLe vs. 0.22 NHLe 3rd line Slovakia

The Latvian 4th line is roughly the same as yours, except for 0.63 PPG Bondra. I have no idea what's he doing in this lineup at all, Latvian B/C team forwards have managed to get 0.50 PPG in Slovakia.

Basically, it turns out we're actually a little better offensively, we have a significantly deeper bottom 6.

I also noticed a very strong selection bias in favor of some players based in your domestic league. There's a guy on your 2nd or 3rd line wing who was a Swedish 3rd division player last season and didn't manage to record any points in Allsvenskan. This season he's been productive in Slovakia, but since the level of your league has dropped so much, you might have a player selection problem with your GM still living in the past.

As for goalies, there's this thing called statistical variance. The expected SVS% doesn't change game by game. A better goalie is a better goalie.

LOL at your use of NHLe.

Slovakia has two proven NHL forwards in their prime, to Latvia’s zero. I comfortably take Slovakia’s top 6 over Latvia’s, and I think most neutral fans would as well. If these teams somehow meet, Slovakia will be a clear favourite on paper.
 
LOL at your use of NHLe.

Slovakia has two proven NHL forwards in their prime, to Latvia’s zero. I comfortably take Slovakia’s top 6 over Latvia’s, and I think most neutral fans would as well. If these teams somehow meet, Slovakia will be a clear favourite on paper.

Yeah, and the bookkeepers agree. Odds from unibet, in terms of likelyhood to earn a medal:

1. Russia - 1.40
2. Canada - 1.48
3. Sweden - 1.55
4. USA - 1.67
5. Czech Republic - 3.25
6. Finland - 3.45
7. Switzerland - 7.50
8. Slovakia - 9.00
9. Germany - 16.00
10. Denmark - 26.00
11. Latvia - 31.00
12. Norway - 41.00
13. France - 101.00
14. Austria - 251.00
15. Italy - 501.00
16. Great Britain - 1001.00
 
Panik is an established top nine winger at the NHL level and can play a complimentary top six role in a pinch. None of Blueger, Balcers or Darzins has proven to have those capabilites yet. What you have proven in the NHL holds more water than "adjusted points" between leagues.

Panik in his last three seasons: 229 games played, 50 goals, 112 points.

Balcers in his NHL career: 36 games, 5 goals, 14 points.

Blueger in his NHL career: 28 games, 6 goals, 10 points.

Even if you go by AHL numbers (again, adjusting numbers between leagues is pointless, so idk why anyone would), Panik showed better production there as well before his NHL career took off.
You're talking like a 70 year old coach in a weird suit. "Proving" anything within an organization is a question of hierarchy, about gaining trust of the leader, which is a very tribal thing for the most part. Someone has to be benched for a new guy to earn a permanent spot. And that guy being benched has spent years within the organization, he has actual, primate ties to other players or maybe even the management.

"Proving" things has got nothing to do with the skill level and the biomechanics of the new player coming in. It's about convincing people. His traits and his skills don't exactly change much over those months of breaking in. You do work up some chemistry with your teammates, but that also has nothing to do with skill.

So, no, Panik is in no way a 'higher caliber' player. He has a better brand name, sure. You have heard of him. It doesn't make him better. They're all in the same tier. We have data. It's 0.39 vs. 0.36 and 0.39 vs. 0.39 PPG in NHL and Blueger was more productive in the AHL this season than Panik ever was. They are all bottom 6 NHL guys.
 

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