Confirmed with Link: [TBL/NSH] Lightning trade Cal Foote, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, & 5th rd picks for Tanner Jeannot
- Thread starter Stormbreaker
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Those late round picks are worth at least giving a little shit about. On our current team: Perbix was a 6th, Hagel a 6th, Paul a 4th, Colton a 4th, Maroon a 6th. Elliot was actually a 9th rounder!
If the price is too high, you can always look elsewhere for another player. The reaction around the league from scouts and GMs had pretty uniformly been surprise or shock.
JTBF81
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If they don't want to trade or waive Names or Bellemare, they could still acquire a dman worth up to 1.54 million with 50% retention involved. I'd hope they could trade Names and have room for a dman and one more 4th line F, but yes, they should be able to fit a dman in.
Point21
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I think Myers could be on the move as a cap dump by friday
JTBF81
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Yeah, moving Myers and his current buried hit would give the team around 2.2 to work with, which should be enough to add at least a dman. Hopefully, JBB will be able to add an additional F as well, but a dman should be top priority. I know Tampa had been heavily scouting Chucago, and most figured it was for Lafferty, but maybe it was for Dickinson instead? If Chicago retained on him, it could work, or if Tampa traded Names. There are some cheaper guys out there for a 4C, like Bjugstad, but I was thinking maybe that's who Tampa could be lookingvat from Chicago.
RussianGuyovich
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Outliers. I’d rather not waste my time compiling a list of what players haven’t made the nhl, but here is a chart:
LTIR Trickery
Plz stop pucks
I think if either of them had value they'd have been moved at this point.
I don't see them adding a defender at this point, especially after what they paid for Jeannot.
DistantThunderRep
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Also Shannon put out a good video yesterday about how draft picks are over valued. He went through and broke down how many NHL'ers were produced from each round from 2012-2019. Chart for anyone who doesn't want to watch the video. He breaks down what he calls an NHL'er in the video too.
| Year | 1st Round | 2nd Round | 3rd Round | 4th Round | 5th Round | 6th Round | 7th Round |
| 2012 | 21 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| 2013 | 21 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| 2014 | 21 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 2015 | 24 | 17 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 3 |
| 2016 | 23 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 2017 | 26 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2018 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 2019 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Total | 175 | 88 | 42 | 40 | 23 | 18 | 13 |
Zwui21
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That's exactly a thing most people criticizing this trade are missing:
JBB doesn't want to look elsewhere for another player. Him and the staff have been following Jeannot for a while, know what he brings and also his cap implications, and wanted HIM. Not another player, not someone cheaper.
And I think this is the exact reason why JBB's deadline acquisitions have panned out so well so far: because he goes after the player he wants, which most of the times aren't even available to trade (hence the price tag). He always goes after the missing puzzle piece, instead of going after another player that maybe costs less but doesn't perfectly fit the team's needs.
And when you take all this into consideration, those picks mean nothing if the player we get is exactly what has been identified as the perfect fit.
What are the odds on 25% of our current forward lineup being compromised of statistical "outliers".
I'm glad you're not our GM since you so casually dismiss 20%, 15%, and 10% chances to improve the team.
RussianGuyovich
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like, what are you saying here? that decades of statistical data is incorrect? or are you just doubling down and overvaluing picks like the rest of HF?
considering 4 out of your 6 examples weren't even drafted by us, i fail to see your argument.
DistantThunderRep
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I posted a chart above of NHL'ers from each round since 2012.
3rd Round players since 2012 is 42/243.
3rd Round success rate: 17%
4th Round success rate: 16%
5th Round success rate: 9%
6th Round success rate: 7%
7th Round success rate: 5%
That's across the whole league. The team took a cumulative 13% chance at 1 NHL'er and converted that to a guaranteed NHL'er. Nashville wanted 2 firsts which is like a 2 70% NHL'ers for Jeannot.
The point is, we did over pay, but not this huge crazy thing that everyone thinks.
You are failing to understand, that's for sure.
First off, in my original reply, I said "Those late round picks are worth at least giving a little shit about. " I didn't say go jump off the highest bridge you can find because we traded our 4th and 5th round picks.
But you replied and proved my point with statistics that showed percentages as high as 1 in 5 of those players do make the NHL, which contradicts your own original point I replied to "sign me up for not giving a shit about losing out on 4th and 5th round picks that wouldn't ever make the nhl anyway."
Whether or not we drafted the late round pick players on our team (and in the NHL) is irrelevant and it again disproves your original point.
But go on and believe that we lose nothing by trading multiple late round picks for a single player if that's what you need to feel good about the trade. And don't worry about trying to make sense of the the fact the trade wouldn't have happened with out them and another paid NHL GM readily snatched them up.
DistantThunderRep
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Clearly you did not read my posts. I 100% endorsed his approach and the trade for TJ. He's going all in because with where this team is right now not going all in only leaves you in the middle. My only point beyond that was that the end of this teams phenomenal run of success is going to come sooner than we think because the moves JBB is making now - and should make now - make that inevitable.
I get that and agree with your overall point. My point to Guya was - those picks are not nothing.
Cumulatively, they give you a decent chance each draft to add an NHL player. When you look at 17% or 5% on it's own, yeah, it's very low odds. But when add up your percentages, because they are all in the same draft, the 3rd round and later picks collectively give you a decent chance of adding another NHL player to your team.
DistantThunderRep
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Yeah that cumulative percentage after round 3 is like 10% at 1 NHL'er. I think the risk was worth it in taking rounds 3 to 5 and guaranteeing a NHL'er who is still an RFA that helps now. The real question to me is where Nashville's stance was on Jeannot being moved (don't really think they wanted to move him considering he fits perfectly for a retool/rebuild), and what other teams would offer. I don't think any team would have beat Foote + 1st + 2nd. The issue with those two picks is that they aren't for this year. The first from 2 years is some serious diminished value asset on the market. Next years second isn't too bad but its probably back end second. Taking all of it into account, the 3 picks from this year were kind of necessary to get the cost controlled NHL player who extends our window than the picks who might be 3-5 years out.
RussianGuyovich
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hrmmm what is better 20% or 100%? thats a real brain wrinkler.
That obviously depends on whether you're competing for a cup now or building for the future. Or maybe you could show me a case where a team rebuilds by trading away all their picks for current NHL players.
RussianGuyovich
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The cycle usually involves trading away veteran talent and replenishing draft picks after the window closes. Chicago did it (not well), LA did it, Washington is currently doing it, and someday we will do it. It’s like you all are rabidly awaiting a rebuild instead of living in the now.
I don't disagree with JBB's approach but just because proven players > picks doesn't mean there is not a value to picks. And if JBB's perceived value of picks is less than the rest of the NHL that doesn't mean you offer all of them. You should still try to get VALUE for your trades where other people value the picks more than you. Maybe Jeannot will prove worth it and maybe not but it seems very high compared to Toronto's trade for a retained Mccabe & Lafferty.
I like JBB and appreciate his aggressiveness during our window but I don't think he's the greatest negotiator.
Look at lots of the contracts he's signed. Cirelli and Cernak (both of whom I like as players) seemed high the moment they were signed. Sergy was a risk and while he may be living up to it we still paid him as if he had already earned that. As much value as we get for trading guys @ 700k could also be saved if we negotiated our home grown guys down a bit more. Also Namestnikov @ 2.5m?
Anyways it's easy to nitpick after the fact and as I said I like JBB and his going for it....I just wish we could do some of these moves while giving a slight overpay vs OMG WTF overpay.
I like JBB and appreciate his aggressiveness during our window but I don't think he's the greatest negotiator.
Look at lots of the contracts he's signed. Cirelli and Cernak (both of whom I like as players) seemed high the moment they were signed. Sergy was a risk and while he may be living up to it we still paid him as if he had already earned that. As much value as we get for trading guys @ 700k could also be saved if we negotiated our home grown guys down a bit more. Also Namestnikov @ 2.5m?
Anyways it's easy to nitpick after the fact and as I said I like JBB and his going for it....I just wish we could do some of these moves while giving a slight overpay vs OMG WTF overpay.
TheDaysOf 04
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RussianGuyovich
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I hear this. Everyone wants value. But the flip side to the coin of not being aggressive is doing nothing. Everyone acts like all JBB had to do was negotiate harder and he could have gotten it cheaper. That seems like a pretty large logical leap to me. The guys JBB wants are popular and they are usually not what teams want to send away. Buy quality get quality.
If some posters here want to imagine JBB as some sort of moron that just grinds out picks and cash and scatters them to the other teams like seeds then I guess I dunno, post away.
It's somewhat comforting to understand that's why the price became so high, but it doesn't mean we should have paid it. We'll never know if there were any other targets JB had that he could have settled on for less of the future.
That said, I'm really looking forward to seeing Jeannot's debut tonight against the panthers. Him having a strong physical performance against that team will make this go down a little easier.
JTBF81
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There should be a few dmen that Tampa should be looking at. They still have enough assets and can vreate the space if necessary, to boost the blueline. JBB can say he's confident in the current d-corp, but when the 7/8/9 are Fleury, Myers and Raddysh, you're one injury to the top 6 from being in a shaky spot. Maybe it's a ufa like TVR, Stecher, Brown etc, or a guy with term like Seeler, but I have to believe JBB is at least kicking tires on a few names.
