Confirmed Signing with Link: [TBL] Alex Killorn (7 years $4.45M AAV)

[Rebels57]

5 × $4 would have been more appropriate

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

Yzerman is one of the sharpest Hockey Execs in the NHL. I don't think this deal is a bad one, nor do I think it is a great one. It is fair, and it is designed to keep a core together since this team is already a very good one, that should be contending for the Cup for some time. Killorn is a good hockey player. 4.45 per is a good number. The term is the risk, but Yzerman won on the 4.45 part.

It's easy to cherry pick stats. How many Canadian forwards have played 47 playoff games since 2014?

 

[Kimota]

I guess it's OK for a third line guy. I have to say he's rarely noticeable.

 

[zar]

Bishop, Filppula, Garrison, and one of Killorn, Palat, Johnson, or Drouin (preferably either Killorn or Johnson depending on how much cap space we need - Drouin is too good and Palat too synergistic with everybody he plays with.) Kucherov won't be going anywhere.

I hate to tell ya, but you aren't getting rid of those 2 contracts unless you are buying them out, eating significant salary or adding some decent picks/prospects.

Killorn has proven himself to be a solid player, plays well at a very important time, the playoffs. SY might have slightly overpaid him by about $.5M but it could pay off in the latter part of this contract. The Oilers have a contract similar to this one where we overpaid in the beginning... we were acting a bit out of desperation to get some experienced, physical players with size who could play a top 6 role, however, we had plenty of cap room at the time - see Benoit Pouliot signed in 2014/15 for $20/5, $4M AAV. It's not terrible today because he actually has increased his production (.62ppg, 51 point pace) but unfortunately he has been plagued with injury issues. Killorn is a good steady player who should have no problems continuing to score 40-50 points as a 2nd line winger for the next 5 years or so... the last couple of years is a crap shoot... could be bad, could be very good (a 40-50 point winger in 2021/22 is probably making $5-5.5M). I was looking for some comparables from 2009/2010 but couldn't really find a similar-styled 27 year old player who scored 40-50 points, to see what they scored last year.

I think Kucherov will be in the $6M AAV... that only leaves $3M to sign Namestnikov and Nesterov. If they are able to negotiate a trade with the Stars with Bishop heading to Dallas, the Lightning will need to take Niemi back... that only clears $1.5M of salary cap. Not sure what the solution will be for this year.

Next off season will be very tricky... TB will need to lose some pieces they are not wanting to, for sure. They will need to be very careful in identifying their core pieces. All good teams have to deal with this eventually. It will be interesting to see what SY does.

 

[State of Hockey]

Insane length and salary for a player of that age and performance. Tampa will regret this one down the road.

 

[bossram]

I guess it's OK for a third line guy. I have to say he's rarely noticeable.

I don't see how anyone can be calling Killorn a "3rd liner" at this point. He has very good possession numbers and has put up a 0.51 PPG pace throughout his career and a 0.7 PPG pace in the playoffs.

Considering a ~40 point pace is mid-pack of 2nd liners in the current NHL, there is really no way to not consider Killorn a top-six player. People need to adjust their expectations of reality. The lower boundary of "1st liners" today is just a hair above 50 points.

Top-six players are going to make some money, and the AAV is commensurate with that type of player and someone with "playoff pedigree". Look at the deal Brouwer just got, and he's worse and older than Killorn. My issue would be the term seems excessive for a non-top-end piece.

 

[Jyrki]

this tweet is a good example as to why companies are desperate for data analysts, despite so many people being able to dig through big data.

 

[tjs*]

I hate to tell ya, but you aren't getting rid of those 2 contracts unless you are buying them out, eating significant salary or adding some decent picks/prospects.

Killorn has proven himself to be a solid player, plays well at a very important time, the playoffs. SY might have slightly overpaid him by about $.5M but it could pay off in the latter part of this contract. The Oilers have a contract similar to this one where we overpaid in the beginning... we were acting a bit out of desperation to get some experienced, physical players with size who could play a top 6 role, however, we had plenty of cap room at the time - see Benoit Pouliot signed in 2014/15 for $20/5, $4M AAV. It's not terrible today because he actually has increased his production (.62ppg, 51 point pace) but unfortunately he has been plagued with injury issues. Killorn is a good steady player who should have no problems continuing to score 40-50 points as a 2nd line winger for the next 5 years or so... the last couple of years is a crap shoot... could be bad, could be very good (a 40-50 point winger in 2021/22 is probably making $5-5.5M). I was looking for some comparables from 2009/2010 but couldn't really find a similar-styled 27 year old player who scored 40-50 points, to see what they scored last year.

I think Kucherov will be in the $6M AAV... that only leaves $3M to sign Namestnikov and Nesterov. If they are able to negotiate a trade with the Stars with Bishop heading to Dallas, the Lightning will need to take Niemi back... that only clears $1.5M of salary cap. Not sure what the solution will be for this year.

Next off season will be very tricky... TB will need to lose some pieces they are not wanting to, for sure. They will need to be very careful in identifying their core pieces. All good teams have to deal with this eventually. It will be interesting to see what SY does.

You're right about Filppula but Garrison has a good deal of value as a solid 3D on most teams and a 2D on some. The fact that teams know we need the cap space will hurt his trade value somewhat but we'll still get a decent return for him and certainly won't have to pay anybody to take him.

As for Niemi the only way we take him is if Filppula or Callahan (assuming he would waive his NMC) is going back the other way. Bishop's contract expires in 2017 which is when we need cap space the most while Niemi's extends an additional year. Yzerman isn't going to trade away a Vezina-quality goalie before next season only to make our cap situation the following summer even worse than it already will be. If this trade happens it will be something along the lines of Bishop + Filppula/Callahan for Niemi + Honka; otherwise we'll just keep Bishop for one more playoff run, let him walk in 2017, and buy out Filppula at that time. If we need space this season it makes far more sense to move Garrison a year ahead of schedule rather than make a bad trade involving Bishop that doesn't bring back a substantial return without worsening our cap situation in 2017.

 

[zar]

You're right about Filppula but Garrison has a good deal of value as a solid 3D on most teams and a 2D on some. The fact that teams know we need the cap space will hurt his trade value somewhat but we'll still get a decent return for him and certainly won't have to pay anybody to take him.

As for Niemi the only way we take him is if Filppula or Callahan (assuming he would waive his NMC) is going back the other way. Bishop's contract expires in 2017 which is when we need cap space the most while Niemi's extends an additional year. Yzerman isn't going to trade away a Vezina-quality goalie before next season only to make our cap situation the following summer even worse than it already will be. If this trade happens it will be something along the lines of Bishop + Filppula/Callahan for Niemi + Honka; otherwise we'll just keep Bishop for one more playoff run, let him walk in 2017, and buy out Filppula at that time. If we need space this season it makes far more sense to move Garrison a year ahead of schedule rather than make a bad trade involving Bishop that doesn't bring back a substantial return without worsening our cap situation in 2017.

I'm not so sure about the Garrison comment... which teams do you think would want him playing on their 3rd pairing at $4.6M cap hit for the next 2 years? Then not sure which team's 2nd pairing left side he would be playing on.

I am in way suggesting the Lightning should trade Bishop... he is one of the top goalies in the NHL and TBs window is open now! I was only adding that piece in, as it appeared to be the way some TBL posters were suggesting the Lightning were making room for your RFA signings this year. You'd never get Dallas to take that Filppula contract, they might be able to afford it this year but not next year with Benn's extension.

That being said, what is the fans feeling of what Kucherov will get in this next contract and how else is SY going to be able to sign/keep all of Kucherov, Namestnikov and Nesterov this year?

 

[Boumsalot]

2 years too much imo but good contract overall.

 

[Lampedampe]

I bet he will have a breakout year. He will be in top six next year. He's been in the bottom six a lot of his career.

Palat Stamkos Drouin
Killorn Johnson Kucherov

God damn that's a scary top -6! With plenty of depth aswell.

The contract is good imo, he'll probably be on a discount contract his first 4-5 years. But may not look too well his last 2, but 4 million won't be too much in 5 years time

 

[tade]

If you keep handing out 7 years to third-line wingers, you won't have enough money to keep all of them. But keep on being snarky in view of legitimate comments.

Ignorance is strong in this post... Whoever calls Killorn 3rd line winger doesn't know anything about him or haven't paid any attention.

 

[UnderratedBrooks44]

Every year when the cap goes up these numbers look better and better. HF never really learns from history. In three years or so, $4.5 mil will be the new $3 mil. If you like your players and want to keep them it's best to lock them up.

To me Killorn is a good secondary scorer that's pretty versatile and he scores in the playoffs. This seems like a legitimate contract to me.

 

[Todd1a]

2 years too much imo but good contract overall.

ya but worth it to have the lower cap hit

 

[SLAPSHOT723]

Every year when the cap goes up these numbers look better and better. HF never really learns from history. In three years or so, $4.5 mil will be the new $3 mil. If you like your players and want to keep them it's best to lock them up.

To me Killorn is a good secondary scorer that's pretty versatile and he scores in the playoffs. This seems like a legitimate contract to me.

Perfect post.

Killorn is one of my favorite players in the NHL. Vastly underrated in here. Plus arguably the greatest goal celebration I've ever seen:

 

[Butchered]

I really think Killorn gets picked up in the expansion draft. Real sweet for TB if he does.

 

[Butchered]

I also think this requires reposting:

Stephen WhynoVerified account
‏@SWhyno
Since Alex Killorn made playoff debut in 2014, only 3 Canadians have more points than his 33: Jonathan Toews, Ryan Getzlaf & Duncan Keith.

When you have a guy that shows up come the Playoffs, you pay him. You always see these producers during the season that disappear during the playoffs. Killorn is the opposite. Stamkos has struggled in the playoffs. Callahan is generally gone come playoffs. Kucherov and Killorn powered the lightning through more than a few games this past year.

Still 2-3 years too long on the deal though.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Every year when the cap goes up these numbers look better and better. HF never really learns from history. In three years or so, $4.5 mil will be the new $3 mil.

Indeed, HF never learns. Because this argument is used in every bad contract thread and never makes sense. There's nothing to support the theory that the cap will jump that much in three years.

 

[Esq]

Ignorance is strong in this post... Whoever calls Killorn 3rd line winger doesn't know anything about him or haven't paid any attention.

Ah, yes. The predictable "you obviously haven't paid attention" retort. We'll see how it turns out.

 

[Iceman]

Ah, yes. The predictable "you obviously haven't paid attention" retort. We'll see how it turns out.

He has been a mainstay in the top 6 for quite a while now on one of the strongest offensive teams in the league. I think he is a top 6 player.

 

[HowSweeeedeItIs]

I'm not so sure about the Garrison comment... which teams do you think would want him playing on their 3rd pairing at $4.6M cap hit for the next 2 years? Then not sure which team's 2nd pairing left side he would be playing on.

I am in way suggesting the Lightning should trade Bishop... he is one of the top goalies in the NHL and TBs window is open now! I was only adding that piece in, as it appeared to be the way some TBL posters were suggesting the Lightning were making room for your RFA signings this year. You'd never get Dallas to take that Filppula contract, they might be able to afford it this year but not next year with Benn's extension.

That being said, what is the fans feeling of what Kucherov will get in this next contract and how else is SY going to be able to sign/keep all of Kucherov, Namestnikov and Nesterov this year?

It's pointless to make comments about a player that you clearly don't even watch. He's the third best defenseman on a team that has been to the cup final and the ECF final in the last two years and he has been really solid for us. Garrison isn't going anywhere and he would be a top-4 defenseman on most teams in the league. If a defenseman has to go it will be Coburn.

 

[2020 Cup Champions]

That being said, what is the fans feeling of what Kucherov will get in this next contract and how else is SY going to be able to sign/keep all of Kucherov, Namestnikov and Nesterov this year?

Forsberg is the comparable I'm looking at for Kucherov. I don't know what to think of Namestnikov at this point. Nesterov is really a non-issue.

 

[Drij]

Someone will have to get traded now.

 

[tjs*]

It's pointless to make comments about a player that you clearly don't even watch. He's the third best defenseman on a team that has been to the cup final and the ECF final in the last two years and he has been really solid for us. Garrison isn't going anywhere and he would be a top-4 defenseman on most teams in the league. If a defenseman has to go it will be Coburn.

Believe me, I'd much rather lose Coburn than Garrison. But we will probably need every cent of the extra $900k from Garrison's contract*, he'd bring back a much better return, and our depth is better on the left side than the right and Coburn has been playing on the right more than Garrison.

* - That's if we want to try to keep the Triplets and Drouin and make Killorn the odd man out. If we lose Johnson instead then it's more likely that we can afford to keep Garrison over Coburn. Would you rather have TJ and Coburn or Killorn and Garrison? Tough call in my opinion.

 

[KevinRedkey]

I assume this means Filppula is going to be traded or bought out before the expansion draft?