Taylor Hall For Adam Larsson V | 4,000+ Posts and Counting!

[Replacement*]

Larsson is a shutdown D now. It isn't a maybe and it has been shown time and again.

All that's been established is that Larsson, joined at the hip with Greene, and playing in NJ, on a team playing sound system hockey, looks like part of a shutdown D pairing.

Thus the way I posted that. If you want to infer 100% transferability of that to how he performs HERE on the Oilers, then that tends to ignore how these transitions have gone.

Its not a certainty.

 

[I am the Liquor]

100% agree with you.

No need to make up new accounts to agree with yourself.

 

[McFlyingV]

It's not a comment on their abilities, it's a comment on the roles they'd be playing. Drai is never going to be a 1C on a team with Connor McDavid. Nurse won't be a top pairing guy unless Klefbom falls off the face of the earth (well, actually, I don't think Nurse will be a real top pairing guy anyway). PJ might be a top liner, but I'm leery to project a guy who has not even played an NHL game yet. He could be years away.

Anyway, we have a fundamental disagreement on the necessity of a #1D man to win a title, so I'll just leave it at this.

Does it matter what roles they're playing? If you can have your #2C producing like a first liner like Malkin in Pit (not saying Drai reaches that level) then you're way ahead in that regard.

As for a #1D no I don't think its an absolute necessity. Carolina didnt have one in 2006, Pittsburgh in 09 is debatable. Gonchar may have still been one, but just barely and Letang was not one yet. I think people are so quick to point to the #1D as a necessity to win because most of the recent winners had one, but those teams also had high end forwards, incredible depth and great goaltending. There's lots of teams with #1D who never compete because they lack those other aspects, just ask Nashville and St Louis.

As for developing a #1D I think its hard to say whether or not there's a chance with our young guys. Hardly any of the #1D in the league were anywhere near being #1D at Klefbom's age.

 

[oilerbear]

The average record to get the bottom WC wildcard is

42W - 28L - 12 SO/OTL 96 PT

if the 2 pk/pp ends up even.

then the forwards (GF) have to outscore the defence (GA)
by .25 EVG/60

For every - 1G on Special teams the forwards have to outscore the D
by another .o4-.05 Evp/60

last 3 years we have been
15-16 -5 the forwards had to outscore by .45-.50 EVG/60
14-15 -10 fwds had to outscore by .65-.70
13-14 -5 .45 - .50

Last 3 years:
Hall
#93 FWD .77 EVG/60
#8 fwd 2.38 EVP/60
#58 Fwd 2.75 EVGF/60

Even goal success:
fwd EVG/60 .65
Fwd EVA1/60 .52
FWD EVA2/60 .41
Dman EVA2/60 .31
Damn EVA1/60 .25
Dman EVG/60 .17

the more directly involved a dman is involved in the offensive play the less likely a goal will be scored!

As reference 260 forwards out score the top 10 Even production D.

Idenfifying Off production as a positive in a Dman is mis guided.

You want to get the puck in the top 260 even producers gloves ASAP.

So a dmans EVA/60 is important.
Klefbom #33 .70 EVA/60
Larsson #43 .67 EVA/60

there are on avg 30 SA/60.
on Avg 10.5 come from the High scoring chance area.
the area were shots have above league average success rate/
8.5% to 20%
you want the D that give up low Sa/60 rates
and
Give up 7.50 HSCA shots rather than 13.5
that is a worst to best means giving up 33% less Total Goals.

Adam Larsson
toughest comp Zone start situation since the 05-06 lockout.
top 20 HSCAD
Top 10 EVSA/60
#1 EVGA d in game 1.58 EVGA/60

So we traded the #57 GF fwd for the #1 GA D.
He surpassed Doughty last 2 years.

EVGF/60 Fwds 15-16
#3 Mcdavid 3.36
#12 lucic 3.15; Wheeler; Krieder; P. Kane
#26 Hudler 2.96; Ovechkin; Kopitar
#54 Hall 2.74; Hornquist; panarin; Hemsky
#86 Draisatl 2.60; Tavres; Stastny; Mackinnon; Larkin; Skinner
#115 Pouliot 2.48; D. sedin; Couture; R. johansen
#128 RNH 2.42 Domi; J. Carter; Pearson; Malkin
#130 Eberle 2.41; Domi; J. Carter; Pearson; Malkin
#170 Maroon 2.19; Ladd; Jenner; Bjugstad; Voracek

PK Subban:
1st comp
1st teammates
1.21 EVP/60 #10 Dman #271 player.
1.02 EVA/60 #4 D; #110 player
Bottom #80 HSCA D
#157 D 31.10 EVSA/60 #6 D level
#163 D 2.48 EVGA/60 #6 D level
this is brutally awful non playoff standard defence from a 9M cap hit.
A dman who's primary purpose is to defend. (GA)

As compared to the 260 Forwards ahead of him who's primary purpose is to attack. (GF)

OilersD:
Larsson
1st comp
Top 20 HSCAD
#43 .67 EVA/60
#1 EVGA D
Top 20 PKGA D

Klefbom
1st comp
#33 .70 EVA/60
Top 60 HSCAD
top 60 SA/60 D
Top 5 PKGA D

Davidson:
2nd comp
top 30 HSCAD
top 40 SA D
top 40 EVGA D
Top 10 PKGA D

 

[oilerbear]

Replacement:

Tmac developed upper level HSCA D in SJS.
Vlasics brauns numbers with TMac were right there with Deboers numbers.
Deboer the coach that ran greene - fayne for his time in NJ.

Davidson #35 HSCAD
Klefbom #57 HSCAD
cracked the top HSCAD barrier playing under TMAC.
Larsson had better defensive numbers than Greene in NJ.

So tmac demanding the same HSCA system is going to be happy to
Run
Larsson
Klefbom
Davidson
Fayne
14-15 top 50 SA/60 numbers
elitetop HSCAD numbers 2 of every 3 games against 1st comp paired with KLef.
out of shape last year.

The problem with Tma's SJS teams was not having one of the 10 best HSCA Save% goalie in the game.
He has the 5th best last 3 years in Talbot.

 

[oilerbear]

A large portion of any teams problem is Games missed by its top players.
you not replacing them with Equal performance:
forwards:with #13-14 to AHL level fwds
Dmen with #7 to Ahl level Dmen

last year
Fwds
Mcdavid 37gm missed
RNH 27gm missed
Pouliot 27gm missed
Yak 22 gm missed
Eberle 13gm missed; Rushed back 13gm too early cause oF Mcd inj
Draisatl brought up 10gm's into season

Dman:
Klefbom 52gm missed
Davidson 31gm missed
our top 2 def D out.

Young D asked to play way above there heads.
Schultz bottom 20 HSCAD
Gryba Bottom 10 HSCAD
Reinhart; Nurse bottom 5 HSCAD

 

[guymez]

I honestly cannot recall a thread in HFOil history that has so many completely bizarre "facts" that aren't remotely true and post after post of pure conjecture.

Seriously, when you have to literally start making up stuff to fit a narrative, and it soon becomes just about every post, you're really losing the argument in a big way.

Sometimes it becomes more about being right and unwavering by clinging tightly to a perspective.

I seriously dont understand how certain posters can continuously ignore all the statistical data and ague an increasingly impotent perspective. The data certainly has opened my eyes on Larsson and Hall.

Now I still need to see how Larsson will do on this team (to completely convince me) but I have more hope for the player now than I did when the trade happened.
Full credit to the posters that took the time to detail the data.

 

[HumbleEgomaniac]

No need to make up new accounts to agree with yourself.

Different person dude, but thanks for the asinine comment.

 

[HumbleEgomaniac]

All that's been established is that Larsson, joined at the hip with Greene, and playing in NJ, on a team playing sound system hockey, looks like part of a shutdown D pairing.

Thus the way I posted that. If you want to infer 100% transferability of that to how he performs HERE on the Oilers, then that tends to ignore how these transitions have gone.

Its not a certainty.

Nice strawman. I never inferred anything of the sort. I looked at the data posted and found plenty of the evidence to be positive about the player coming in. It still remains to be seen how he fits with the team here, but I would rather take a 'wait and see' stance, rather than the 'sky is falling stance' you and others have taken.

 

[HumbleEgomaniac]

@Oilerbear

Wow, great posts! I'm still digesting it, but a very interesting read.

@Guymez 100% agree with your post. I wasn't enamored with the trade either, but the more reading I did from material posted by sports writers and HF members,( and a big thank you to all the posters doing the number crunching and work) the more positive I have become on Larsson.

 

[I am the Liquor]

Different person dude, but thanks for the asinine comment.

I was teasing my old friend Jase but
you should probably know from the last time you were banned from here that you can't talk to people like that.

 

[cbzblaze]

I'd rather roll with the unicorn #1D and figure the rest out later. Drai and PJ could be high end second liners and Nurse could become a real top four D and we still won't have what it takes to be a cup threat if Larsson or Klef don't pan out as real #1D.

So what's Montreal's excuse? They have the best goalie in the world AND had a #1 D who is definitely top 10 in the league, yet they look no where close to winning a cup with that crap lineup.

Chia' building it the right way. Strong Depth down the middle, Depth at D, fill in the rest with best available wingers.

Even if both Klefbom and Larsson max out as #2-3 guys, their more than worth it for their contracts.
If in the near future, we can add one more good middle pairing guy, we will make some serious noise.

I'm not in any way worried about production from our forwards.

And this whole driver stuff is blown out of proportion. If Hall is constantly the guy carrying the puck up the ice, how are his linemates supposed to 'drive' the play. I'm assuming with Hall gone, someone else will get the chance to carry the puck up and be the so called 'driver'. Whether they're as good as Hall in doing it, only time will tell, but the opportunity will at least be there.

 

[I am the Liquor]

So what's Montreal's excuse? They have the best goalie in the world AND had a #1 D who is definitely top 10 in the league, yet they look no where close to winning a cup with that crap lineup.

Chia' building it the right way. Strong Depth down the middle, Depth at D, fill in the rest with best available wingers.

Even if both Klefbom and Larsson max out as #2-3 guys, their more than worth it for their contracts.
If in the near future, we can add one more good middle pairing guy, we will make some serious noise.

I'm not in any way worried about production from our forwards.

And this whole driver stuff is blown out of proportion. If Hall is constantly the guy carrying the puck up the ice, how are his linemates supposed to 'drive' the play. I'm assuming with Hall gone, someone else will get the chance to carry the puck up and be the so called 'driver'. Whether they're as good as Hall in doing it, only time will tell, but the opportunity will at least be there.

Conference final is nowhere close to winning the cup?

 

[Ol' Jase]

No need to make up new accounts to agree with yourself.

lol. Guilty as charged.

 

[McFlyingV]

So what's Montreal's excuse? They have the best goalie in the world AND had a #1 D who is definitely top 10 in the league, yet they look no where close to winning a cup with that crap lineup.

Chia' building it the right way. Strong Depth down the middle, Depth at D, fill in the rest with best available wingers.

Even if both Klefbom and Larsson max out as #2-3 guys, their more than worth it for their contracts.
If in the near future, we can add one more good middle pairing guy, we will make some serious noise.

I'm not in any way worried about production from our forwards.

And this whole driver stuff is blown out of proportion. If Hall is constantly the guy carrying the puck up the ice, how are his linemates supposed to 'drive' the play. I'm assuming with Hall gone, someone else will get the chance to carry the puck up and be the so called 'driver'. Whether they're as good as Hall in doing it, only time will tell, but the opportunity will at least be there.

And the thing with the bolded is that they don't even need to be as good as Hall was. McDavid already replaced Hall and is twice the driver and player that Hall is now as a 19 year old. If we don't have any players producing over 30-40 points on the 2nd or 3rd lines then maybe I'll be worried, but I feel pretty confident that won't be the case. The current build of the forward group sets the team up for a more balanced and structured puck possession and 2-way type game. Hall could create off the rush, but he sure as hell couldn't do a ton to keep the puck in the offensive zone consistently for extended periods of time and he sure struggled to support the D for defensive zone clears. His speed helped him to back check, but once the big pacific teams started cycling in our end he was as much of a lost puppy as anyone on the team, if not more.

 

[VincenzosOil]

I was teasing my old friend Jase but
you should probably know from the last time you were banned from here that you can't talk to people like that.

Can't talk to people like how?

You mean like you playing dead when he rightly criticizes your comment as being assinine? You f$$$ing set him up but deflect the criticism by bringing up a previous ban. How smug and hypocritical. How was he to know you were "teasing" old friend Jase?

He should have stopped at the first 3 letters in describing your comment.

 

[Ol' Jase]

I'd rather roll with the unicorn #1D and figure the rest out later. Drai and PJ could be high end second liners and Nurse could become a real top four D and we still won't have what it takes to be a cup threat if Larsson or Klef don't pan out as real #1D.

Again, over and over again, what on earth makes your think a $9M per year Subban puts us over the top when you gut the top of the depth at the two most important positions in the process?

 

[HumbleEgomaniac]

I was teasing my old friend Jase but
you should probably know from the last time you were banned from here that you can't talk to people like that.

Who do you think I am? I have never been banned on here before. Ask any moderator if you don't believe it. Please just stop.

 

[Up the Irons]

How about this: a very good winger = a good RHD.

We traded a great winger for a good RHD (that might be a very good RHD)

The overpay is the difference between a very good and a great winger. IOW, Hall to Ebs.

Larsson for Ebs is an equal trade, AFAIC. So is the overpay that outrageous?

 

[VincenzosOil]

I was teasing my old friend Jase but
you should probably know from the last time you were banned from here that you can't talk to people like that.

Can't talk to people like how?

You mean like you playing dead when he rightly criticizes your comment as being assinine? You f$$$ing set him up but deflect the criticism by bringing up a previous ban. How smug and hypocritical. How was he to know you were "teasing" old friend Jase?

He should have stopped at the first 3 letters in describing your comment.

 

[Ol' Jase]

How about this: a very good winger = a good RHD.

We traded a great winger for a good RHD (that might be a very good RHD)

The overpay is the difference between a very good and a great winger. IOW, Hall to Ebs.

Larsson for Ebs is an equal trade, AFAIC. So is the overpay that outrageous?

Exactly.

The asset we lost to get Larsson was significant, but it was one asset. One.

The hole that was created was filled by Milan Lucic, who actually is a very, very good hockey player.

This team needs to keep the puck out of the ****ing net more than anything else, full stop.

Can anyone tell me, honestly, that adding Adam Larsson to the club isn't a step in the right direction to achieve exactly that?

 

[Mc5RingsAndABeer]

Exactly.

The asset we lost to get Larsson was significant, but it was one asset. One.

The hole that was created was filled by Milan Lucic, who actually is a very, very good hockey player.

This team needs to keep the puck out of the ****ing net more than anything else, full stop.

Can anyone tell me, honestly, that adding Adam Larsson to the club isn't a step in the right direction to achieve exactly that?

The Oilers also were horrible at scoring. Losing Hall hurts that further.

Lucic was not a result of Hall being traded, unless you somehow think $1.8m cap space was the difference. If a trade was Lucic + Larsson for Hall then it becomes more fair, but it wasn't. It was just Larsson for Hall. We could've signed Lucic without trading Hall.

 

[Nordic*]

All we know now is Hall is an elite player, and Larsson is maybe a shutdown D here.

Is he really "elite" though?

If he is, then shouldn't Larsson be elite defensively?

Edmonton needed that more. Larsson is a rarity.

He is young (can still develop all parts of his game).

He's a first pairing D-man, granted, on a less than average team, but he had excellent results as being the unit shuting down the other team's best players.

He is a rightie.

Absolutely loved by his teammates.

I guess this debate will continue years from now, but in the long run, I see Edmonton as a harder team to face, with Larsson on the back-end, eating up 24-25 minutes a game, going up against the best that the other teams have to offer.

Also.

Didn't Hall pretty much "quit" on the team last season, when things were rough?

 

[Ol' Jase]

The Oilers also were horrible at scoring. Losing Hall hurts that further.

Lucic was not a result of Hall being traded, unless you somehow think $1.8m cap space was the difference. If a trade was Lucic + Larsson for Hall then it becomes more fair, but it wasn't. It was just Larsson for Hall. We could've signed Lucic without trading Hall.

Lucic + Larsson for Taylor Hall is fair value??

I am absolutely flabbergasted on how overrated Taylor Hall has become on this board by some all of a sudden. He's a great player, but this is just getting insane.

We all saw FIRST HAND how Hall's offense gets replaced. His name is Connor McDavid. How are some of you forgetting the absolute cliff Hall feel off of the second McDavid returned?

 

[Up the Irons]

The Oilers also were horrible at scoring. Losing Hall hurts that further.

Lucic was not a result of Hall being traded, unless you somehow think $1.8m cap space was the difference. If a trade was Lucic + Larsson for Hall then it becomes more fair, but it wasn't. It was just Larsson for Hall. We could've signed Lucic without trading Hall.

But the Hall trade was absolutely a result of knowing u had Lucic in th bag. U r kidding urself if u don't think the Lucic signing had a direct effect on PCs decision