GDT: TankTown Express: Grab the Bison by the Sabres

[Brian39]

Maybe a tank IS the best move (especially if it is forced)?

We are pretty much at the point where the philosophical debate about what we should do has become irrelevant. Heading into last weekend, our playoff odds were slipping but we were still within striking distance. Since then, we went 0-2 against non-playoff teams and the relevant league-wide outcomes were almost as bad as they possibly could have been. It is staggering how poorly things went.

On Friday afternoon, we were 2 points back of the WC2 spot (Calgary), 5 points back of the C2 spot (Minnesota), 6 points back of the WC1 spot (Edmonton), tied with Colorado as the first team out of playoff position and 1 point up on Nashville. We were 7 points back of LA and 9 points back of Seattle/Vegas (which would become relevant if Edmonton jumps one of them). Here's the disaster of outcomes that happened since Friday:

The Avs went 3-0 against Vancouver, Seattle, and Washington. They gave Seattle a point by going to a shootout. All 3 outcomes were worst-case-scenario for our playoff chances. This jumped the Avs to C3 and they are now 6 points ahead of us with 2 games still in hand.

The Flames went 2-0 against Tampa and Columbus. Both outcomes were worst-case-scenario for our playoff chances and the Flames remain in WC2. They are 6 points up on us with the same number of games played.

The Oilers won their only game (against the Canucks), which was the worst-case-scenario for our playoff chances. They still sit in WC1 and are 8 points up on us.

The Kings went 2-1, beating the Hawks and Flyers. Their loss came to Nashville. The only non-worst-case outcome here was the loss to Nashville. That hurt our payoff chances more than a Kings win would have, but at least it was in regulation. They are now P2 and 11 points up on us (although we have 2 games in hand).

Nashville went 2-0 (beating the Kings and Winnipeg). They are now 3 points ahead of us with a game in hand.

Seattle's only game was that shootout loss to the Avs where they banked a point. They are now P3 and 10 points ahead of us (with 2 games in hand).

There were 10 total games played by those 6 teams that we are theoretically fighting with. 9 of them resulted in the worst-case-scenario for our playoff chances. The 10th game (Nashville/LA) was a bad outcome, but at least LA didn't get a loser point.

The last 5 days were an unmitigated disaster for the Blues playoff hopes. The only help we got was that Minnesota went 0-2. They are now 1 point below the playoff cut line, but they have 2 games in hand on Calgary (and us). To make the playoffs, we now have to jump at least 3 teams and all 3 currently hold the tiebreaker over us. Calgary is 6 points up (same number of games played), Minnesota is 5 points up (with 2 games in hand) and Nashville is 3 points up (with 1 game in hand).

Making the playoffs has gotten significantly more difficult than it was 5 days ago. On 1/25/19, we sat just 3 points back of a playoff spot and had played fewer games than everyone we were chasing. Today, we sit 6 points back and have played the same or more games than the teams we are chasing.

 

[ValHaller]

The fact that this team is being outperformed by the likes of Minnesota tells you all you need to know about them.

 

[TruBlu]

Checking some of the odds forums online it looks like we're currently sitting around a 75% chance to miss the playoffs. There's still time to make a push, but we'd have to win roughly 75% of our remaining games or some combination of wins/ot games just to even sniff a wild card spot. That's somewhere in the vicinity of only being able to lose 8 or 9 of our remaining games before we're mathematically eliminated. That's probably not attainable by probably more than a handful of teams in the league. It's safe to say I've turned my attention to what moves we make at the TDL. Hopefully between that and moves at the draft we have something to look forward to next season.

 

[Brian39]

Checking some of the odds forums online it looks like we're currently sitting around a 75% chance to miss the playoffs. There's still time to make a push, but we'd have to win roughly 75% of our remaining games or some combination of wins/ot games just to even sniff a wild card spot. That's somewhere in the vicinity of only being able to lose 8 or 9 of our remaining games before we're mathematically eliminated. That's probably not attainable by probably more than a handful of teams in the league. It's safe to say I've turned my attention to what moves we make at the TDL. Hopefully between that and moves at the draft we have something to look forward to next season.

I'm seeing worse odds than that.

Playoffstatus.com has us at 23%, but that is the only one I found that has us over 20%

538 has us at 18%

PowerRankingsGuru has us at 11.7%

Hockey Reference has us at 9.4%

Moneypuck has us at 5.4%

The Athletic has us at 3%

 

[MissouriMook]

My biggest fear at the moment is that we will miss the playoffs and end up 15th or 16th in the draft order. No playoff revenue, but also no chance at all of a top 4 pick and settling for a decidedly lesser prospect than if we had embraced the tank and finished with the 7th-10th overall pick.

 

[BowieSabresFan]

Who tf are you?

Our apologies. He escaped from the Sabres board, and forgot you don't post things like that on an opponent's board.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

They don't even get the courtesy of a reach around either.

In hockey we call that a "wrap around."

 

[TruBlu]

I'm seeing worse odds than that.

Playoffstatus.com has us at 23%, but that is the only one I found that has us over 20%

538 has us at 18%

PowerRankingsGuru has us at 11.7%

Hockey Reference has us at 9.4%

Moneypuck has us at 5.4%

The Athletic has us at 3%

I saw some others, but I always try to focus on the more conservative side when it comes to such things. I really do believe we have a good shot of being completely eliminated before the TDL comes. There are just too many other factors involved that have to go right for us to make it in. Once you lose the ability to make your own destiny you really don't have much hope of doing well in the playoffs even if you end up squeaking in.

 

[Majorityof1]

I'm seeing worse odds than that.

Playoffstatus.com has us at 23%, but that is the only one I found that has us over 20%

538 has us at 18%

PowerRankingsGuru has us at 11.7%

Hockey Reference has us at 9.4%

Moneypuck has us at 5.4%

The Athletic has us at 3%

So somewhere between 23% and 3%, huh. That's definitely an exact science there

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Checking some of the odds forums online it looks like we're currently sitting around a 75% chance to miss the playoffs. There's still time to make a push, but we'd have to win roughly 75% of our remaining games or some combination of wins/ot games just to even sniff a wild card spot. That's somewhere in the vicinity of only being able to lose 8 or 9 of our remaining games before we're mathematically eliminated. That's probably not attainable by probably more than a handful of teams in the league. It's safe to say I've turned my attention to what moves we make at the TDL. Hopefully between that and moves at the draft we have something to look forward to next season.

Playoffs? We talking playoffs? Naw naw, we going for that top 10 pick. TANKTOWN EXPRESS IS RUNNING GOOD!!

 

[Xerloris]

Playoffs? We talking playoffs? Naw naw, we going for that top 10 pick. TANKTOWN EXPRESS IS RUNNING GOOD!!

We're so bad this season I really do hope we get a top 10 pick. I hope for Bedard but come on, winning our first cup and Bedard within 5 years? Pfft.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

We're so bad this season I really do hope we get a top 10 pick. I hope for Bedard but come on, winning our first cup and Bedard within 5 years? Pfft.

I'm just trying to find the bright side of all of this. We already have enough people being miserable on the Blues HFBoards.

 

[Fly Boy]

Our apologies. He escaped from the Sabres board, and forgot you don't post things like that on an opponent's board.

We've had quite a few new posters pop up over the last few months who have been doing a bit of trolling on the main boards and other teams boards GDTs. They don't seem to understand that this isn't twitter or reddit.

They're getting on our nerves at home as well. So to reiterate, Apologies.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

We've had quite a few new posters pop up over the last few months who have been doing a bit of trolling on the main boards and other teams boards GDTs. They don't seem to understand that this isn't twitter or reddit.

They're getting on our nerves at home as well. So to reiterate, Apologies.

Thanks. I think Blues fans are generally predisposed to root for Sabres. We too waited decades without ever winning, hated watching Hull score Cup winning goal for Dallas, and are now further linked with ROR-Thompson trade. Hopefully y’all will get your first Cup soon.

 

[PJJJP]

I've figured out the Blues strategy. They leave the slot open and let the opponent score 4-5 goals on purpose. Then they score 3-4 goals to make it seem close and give the fans at the game a little show. But they stay consistent in losing, but they can't make it to obvious like they aren't trying

 

[mk80]

Our apologies. He escaped from the Sabres board, and forgot you don't post things like that on an opponent's board.

We've had quite a few new posters pop up over the last few months who have been doing a bit of trolling on the main boards and other teams boards GDTs. They don't seem to understand that this isn't twitter or reddit.

They're getting on our nerves at home as well. So to reiterate, Apologies.

We have a few of our own that tend to roam as well, mostly come playoff time, which it seems the Blues have decided to spare the rest of HFBoards this year.

I see with your win last night you are chasing down the wild card in the east with some games in hand. Wishing you all at HFSabres a nice push for the playoffs as we head into the final stretch of the season.

 

[PocketNines]

538 has us at 18%

I co-founded FiveThirtyEight; I think our chances are less than 18%

 

[542365]

By my(admittedly shit) math, the Blues need to play at 111 point pace(46 points in 34 games) rest of season to get to 95 points and have a decent shot of making the playoffs. For reference, that pace would put us between the paces of Toronto and Tampa so far this year. We have to be that good rest of season to have a shot. That with a bottom 10 defense and a bottom 5 goaltender and likely selling ROR and Tarasenko at the deadline. That’s not going to happen. Doesn’t really matter if we try to tank or not, this team is not making the playoffs.

 

[67 others]

I'm not surprised at all by Morrissey busting out this season. I've been wondering what took him so long.

Paul Maurice.

How did Krug look his first game back? 2 assists looks good on paper but how did he look overall?

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Paul Maurice.

How did Krug look his first game back? 2 assists looks good on paper but how did he look overall?

Better than before he got hurt imho. His skating looked much better. I don't think his knee injury from last post season ever healed fully before the season started.

 

[Brian39]

We've had quite a few new posters pop up over the last few months who have been doing a bit of trolling on the main boards and other teams boards GDTs. They don't seem to understand that this isn't twitter or reddit.

They're getting on our nerves at home as well. So to reiterate, Apologies.

Love the GOAT in a goat head jersey in your avatar.

The Sabres have been my 2nd team going back to the Hasek days and I share @Blueston's thoughts about the links in our franchises/fanbases. Hope you guys keep enjoying Tage and win a Cup while he is there. I still absolutely love the O'Reilly trade and would love to see it lead to Cups for both teams.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Paul Maurice.

How did Krug look his first game back? 2 assists looks good on paper but how did he look overall?

Looked really good. He has had rough year and this might have been his best game. He really is good player.

We've had quite a few new posters pop up over the last few months who have been doing a bit of trolling on the main boards and other teams boards GDTs. They don't seem to understand that this isn't twitter or reddit.

They're getting on our nerves at home as well. So to reiterate, Apologies.

Rumor is y’all are looking for top 4rhd. i like your prospect pool. We seem about to blow things up- you interested in Faulk or Parayko (I promise that was his worst game of season)?

 

[Fly Boy]

Rumor is y’all are looking for top 4rhd. i like your prospect pool. We seem about to blow things up- you interested in Faulk or Parayko (I promise that was his worst game of season)?

I tend to be in line with a the other half of our posters on that regard. Some want to trade for and find Power's partner right now. Other (myself included) seem to believe we would be better off upgrading the 3rd pair LHD spot to move Bryson down to the 7th Dman and not to spend many/high-end assets this year, but rather go hunting for that top 4rhd in the offseason when prices may be lower.

Adams has been quite adamant this year about not moving any of our young guys or making any big moves this year. I also don't believe he plans to move our 2023 1st unless they do something crazy like Timo Meier. In regards to Parayko, while I and many others love him and think he would be an excellent fit, there's so many factors that have to be thought about to make that work. Mainly all of Cozens, Dahlin, Power, Krebs, Jokiharju, Mittlestadt and Luukkonen are set for new contrats, this offseason or next. In 3 years will they have the room for a 32 y/o $6.5 mil Parayko? Idk, but then again I'm not the capologist.

Edit: I just remembered, but funnily enough a lot of people believe that the solution to the first part I posted about getting an upgrade at 3lhd is actually Ryan Johnson the player the Sabres took with the Blues 1st from the ROR deal (If he signs that is).

 

[LGB]

I think Faulk would fit much better on the Sabres than Parayko. Sabres seem to be a team that encourage their D to activate and value puck possession. Also less term on his contract.

 

[Brian39]

In regards to Parayko, while I and many others love him and think he would be an excellent fit, there's so many factors that have to be thought about to make that work. Mainly all of Cozens, Dahlin, Power, Krebs, Jokiharju, Mittlestadt and Luukkonen are set for new contrats, this offseason or next. In 3 years will they have the room for a 32 y/o $6.5 mil Parayko? Idk, but then again I'm not the capologist.

I think the answer to that bolded question is that they will absolutely have the room for him. Capfriendly's projections of an $87.5M cap for 2024/25 and a $92M cap for 2025/26 are pretty safe bets barring another global event that shuts down the league for an extended stretch. So the $60M of space they are showing for 2024/25 and $66M for 2025/26 are accurate. Lots of players to extend with that space, but pretty much all the most important guys will be negotiating as RFAs instead of upcoming UFAs. Plenty of options to bridge some guys, move some guys, and Skinner's contract is a decent buyout candidate in 2025 or 2026 if things get tighter than expected. Go max term with Power, Dahlin, and Cozens for roughly $25M-$30M, bridge guys like Quinn, Peterka, and Krebs for affordable depth and by the time the next wave of raises are due the cap is pushing $100M and Skinner is coming off the books.

There is definitely room for Parayko in the long-term cap structure.

Whether he plays up to the cap commitment is the important question. Personally, I think that a Power-Parayko pairing could be absolutely unbelievable and give you guys two of the top 15 D pairs in the league, both of which have the ability to play in all situations. I also think it might be worth trying Power-Dahlin and Samuelsson-Parayko situationally.