Speculation: Summer 2024 Extension Predictions

[Dr Jan Itor]

Last year, Guerin did up Foligno, Hartman and Zuccarello early.

This year, only Middleton would fit the bill for the same treatment (I'm ignoring Johansson for now). But, Faber and Rossi are both eligible as well.

Do we think any of the 3 (Middleton, Faber, Rossi) get new deals? If so, predict.

I'll say:

Middleton - yes, 5 years x $5.2M per year
Faber - yes, 8 years x 8.125M per year
Rossi - no

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[Wabit]

Last year, Guerin did up Foligno, Hartman and Zuccarello early.

This year, only Middleton would fit the bill for the same treatment (I'm ignoring Johansson for now). But, Faber and Rossi are both eligible as well.

Do we think any of the 3 (Middleton, Faber, Rossi) get new deals? If so, predict.

I'll say:

Middleton - yes, 5 years x $5.2M per year
Faber - yes, 8 years x 8.125M per year
Rossi - no

Faber gets a big payday.
Rossi gets traded.
Middleton gets a mid season extension if none of the LD prospects improve.

 

[Sweetnut]

Midds: 4x4, NMC (Billy G modus operandi)
Faber 7x7ish
Rossi lowballed, gets an arbitration deal

 

[Digitalbooya]

I’m hoping he can convince Faber to do 8 years at $8m or less.

 

[north21]

I don't see elite offense in Faber, bridge him and then lock him in long term for big but not enormous numbers. If he earns an even larger contract then so be it.

 

[BagHead]

Midds: 4x4, NMC (Billy G modus operandi)
Faber 7x7ish
Rossi lowballed, gets an arbitration deal

If I expect any of those three to outperform what they did last year and end up demanding an even bigger contract, it's Rossi. So yeah, that makes sense.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I don't see elite offense in Faber, bridge him and then lock him in long term for big but not enormous numbers. If he earns an even larger contract then so be it.

I probably wouldn't have an issue with a bridge either. I like setting up the big contract for the 24/25 - 32/33 years. I'd be extremely surprised if they bridge him though.

 

[Digitalbooya]

The issue I see is that a bridge will likely be 2-3 years at $6-7M. Might as well lock him in long term at a slightly higher AAV IMO than risk him being a $9-10M as the cap rises.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

The issue I see is that a bridge will likely be 2-3 years at $6-7M. Might as well lock him in long term at a slightly higher AAV IMO than risk him being a $9-10M as the cap rises.

If 2-3 years is $6-$7M, then 8 years should be much more than $8M. Something about that math doesn't quite add up.

I think 2 years would be $5M per. 8 years, he has every right going after $9M per after the Sanderson and Power contracts. I'm hoping there's a discount in there, or that we just put $60-$65 million in front of him and he just can't say no.

 

[Sweetnut]

If I expect any of those three to outperform what they did last year and end up demanding an even bigger contract, it's Rossi. So yeah, that makes sense.

I've come to know you as the voice of reason on this board, so I take your approval as a badge of honour. Seriously, he's worth a reasonable bridge deal.

 

[Wabit]

The issue I see is that a bridge will likely be 2-3 years at $6-7M. Might as well lock him in long term at a slightly higher AAV IMO than risk him being a $9-10M as the cap rises.

I think they need to bet on Faber ($8m/yr range) like they did on Boldy with a long term deal right after the ELC. It's less of a bet with Faber though. He was 22nd (tied) in d-man points last year, 6th in ToI. played in all situations, and carried his d-pairing most of the season. This was all as a rookie and making rookie mistakes.

 

[Digitalbooya]

If 2-3 years is $6-$7M, then 8 years should be much more than $8M. Something about that math doesn't quite add up.

I think 2 years would be $5M per. 8 years, he has every right going after $9M per after the Sanderson and Power contracts. I'm hoping there's a discount in there, or that we just put $60-$65 million in front of him and he just can't say no.

Russo is talking about Faber being a $9M+ player on his next deal.

I think $5M is an auto reject from the Faber camp for these exact reasons:

I think they need to bet on Faber ($8m/yr range) like they did on Boldy with a long term deal right after the ELC. It's less of a bet with Faber though. He was 22nd (tied) in d-man points last year, 6th in ToI. played in all situations, and carried his d-pairing most of the season. This was all as a rookie and making rookie mistakes.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Russo is talking about Faber being a $9M+ player on his next deal.

I think $5M is an auto reject from the Faber camp for these exact reasons:

I'll have to look and see if there were any higher profile defenseman bridges the last couple years. None immediately come to mind. Last I remember was McAvoy (6% of the cap for 3 years), but that was 5 years ago. 6% of a $92M cap would be $5.5M per year. Going from 3 years to 2 years should lower it some.

Either way, no reason to bridge a year early. This summer, it'll either be a LT deal or nothing.

 

[Sweetnut]

Russo is talking about Faber being a $9M+ player on his next deal.

I think $5M is an auto reject from the Faber camp for these exact reasons:

I don't trust his opinions at all after he suggested Öhgren was going to the Worlds for Sweden after 3 games of NHL action for the Wild

 

[Wabit]

I don't trust his opinions at all after he suggested Öhgren was going to the Worlds for Sweden after 3 games of NHL action for the Wild

It's not that far fetched as a last FWD on the team type of thing. If he had a fully healthy SHL season (and his production held up) then it would have been more likely imo. Making International rosters (Olympic, IIFH, etc) are a somewhat of crap shoot with a lot of players.

I don't recall if this was a written article or podcast thing for Russo. Russo is still a very good print reporter so I trust most of what he writes as facts. As an entertainer (talking head, podcast, etc.) I take a lot of what he says with a grain of salt. There is a lot of speculation, mistakes, misspeaks, and/or bad wording inherent in these types of things.

$9m/yr isn't an outrageous for Faber due to what the market value is for his position. $8m/yr is the number I like, but it's probably low. It's more than Spurgeon makes (Faber is better). There are a lot of RFA years involved to keep the value a bit lower. It would keep at an age where a 2nd big long term UFA deal is a very good possibility for him.

 

[Sweetnut]

It's not that far fetched as a last FWD on the team type of thing. If he had a fully healthy SHL season (and his production held up) then it would have been more likely imo. Making International rosters (Olympic, IIFH, etc) are a somewhat of crap shoot with a lot of players.

I don't recall if this was a written article or podcast thing for Russo. Russo is still a very good print reporter so I trust most of what he writes as facts. As an entertainer (talking head, podcast, etc.) I take a lot of what he says with a grain of salt. There is a lot of speculation, mistakes, misspeaks, and/or bad wording inherent in these types of things.

$9m/yr isn't an outrageous for Faber due to what the market value is for his position. $8m/yr is the number I like, but it's probably low. It's more than Spurgeon makes (Faber is better). There are a lot of RFA years involved to keep the value a bit lower. It would keep at an age where a 2nd big long term UFA deal is a very good possibility for him.

It was a tweet (a X?) when he was promoted to the Wild on the tail end of the season. I mean, why in the hell would a stacked team Sweden require his services when they had the legendary Victor Olofsson pencilled in as their 13th forward?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I think the scale for Faber is:

8 years = $9M per
7 years = $8M per
6 years = $7M per
5 years = $6.5M per
4 years = $6M per
3 years = $5.5M per
2 years = $5M per

 

[Wabit]

I think the scale for Faber is:

8 years = $9M per
7 years = $8M per
6 years = $7M per
5 years = $6.5M per
4 years = $6M per
3 years = $5.5M per
2 years = $5M per

I think a bridge starts at $6m/yr and anything 3+ years is at least Spurgeon's pay.

 

[f7ben]

Rossi would be the one I’d try and get term for a deal on. Faber is at peak hype right now. I’m not saying he’s going to pullback at all but I’m not sure he’s a 9m dman either

 

[Wabit]

Rossi would be the one I’d try and get term for a deal on. Faber is at peak hype right now. I’m not saying he’s going to pullback at all but I’m not sure he’s a 9m dman either

Freddy G type of contract?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I think a bridge starts at $6m/yr and anything 3+ years is at least Spurgeon's pay.

If 3 years is $7.5M how in the heck is 8 years only $9M? The spread seems way too close.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Freddy G type of contract?

Probably closer to Eriksson Ek, who got ~6.5% of the cap after a 30 in 56 season.

 

[BagHead]

I've come to know you as the voice of reason on this board, so I take your approval as a badge of honour. Seriously, he's worth a reasonable bridge deal.

Reason? I'll have to show my wife this. She won't believe it if I don't.

 

[Wabit]

Probably closer to Eriksson Ek, who got ~6.5% of the cap after a 30 in 56 season.

Non-QO him if that's the cost.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Non-QO him if that's the cost.

That's the cost on an 8 year deal. Doesn't have to be that. I think a bridge is good for both sides, assuming he's even around. Depends very much on how this season goes.

But I understand you're not a fan of his, so a term contract discussion probably isn't going to be constructive.