Speculation: Summer 2018 Roster Discussion Part IV

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JoeThorntonsRooster

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May 14, 2012
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Also, one more factoid:

In the playoffs, from 2008-2009 until 2013-2014

Dan Boyle: 48 points
Joe Thornton: 52 points

From 2015-2016 and 2016-2017

Brent Burns: 27 points
Joe Thornton: 23 points

Joe Thornton total: 75 points
Sharks #1D total: 75 points

So, not only has Joe Thornton been slightly out-scored by Pavelski and almost out-scored by Couture, since Couture arrived. He has also scored the same exact amount of points as our #1 defenseman over the course of 8 playoff runs.

This franchise #1C is out-scored by the #1RW/#2C by 2 points, tied in scoring by the #1D, and scored 1 more point than the #2C/#3C. And yet, somehow these guys are to blame?

I think that, given this information: if you suggest that Thornton’s team support hasn’t been up to par - that his team’s other top players haven’t been on par with those of other top players outside of their franchise #1C, then you have to be implying one of two things:

A team’s #1D, #1RW/2C/3C, and 3C should be scoring notably more than the #1C.

OR

Thornton’s teammates have not been good enough, but Thornton’s production also has not been good enough for a franchise player/#1C.
 
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SnarkAttack

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For me, it's hard to say whether Joe himself has been good or bad in the playoffs. As a guy who makes his money as a passer, he relies on people finishing plays. I really think that other teams focused on specifically taking him out of the game.

So, is it him, or is it his playstyle that made him not as good as hoped for in the playoffs? I'd probably point at his playstyle. Either way, he has been solid, but you expect more from a player of his caliber.
 

Alwalys

Phu m.
May 19, 2010
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Between 2009-2010 and 2016-2017, Thornton has 70 playoff points. In that same time frame, Couture has 69 and Pavelski has 72. This guy is getting out-scored in the playoffs by a guy whose career he supposedly made in Pavelski, and is only one point ahead of a center who is, quite literally, the type of guy you settle for as your franchise player/#1C in Couture. (Couture’s playoff numbers outside of his rookie year completely demolish Thornton’s BTW) What more can you ask of these guys? Are these complimentary players supposed to be scoring significantly more than the Hall of Fame superstar #1C? They’re already ahead of him in playoff scoring!

Here's a trivia question -- between Thornton, Kopitar, Toews, and Crosby, which player has led their team in playoff scoring the most times over that timeframe?

Answer:
It's Toews with 3, the others all did it twice. However Toews' 3rd came in a 4-game sweep where he "led" the team along with Kane with 2 points -- the same number Thornton scored that playoffs playing on a blown out knee.

So no, the 1C leading scoring is not necessarily part of the formula, and yes we do need couture to lead the team in scoring or close to it -- that IS part of the stanley cup formula. Malkin and Kane have led scoring as much or more than Crosby or Toews in their Cup runs. Kopitar stands as the guy who actually led in both wins.

Pavelski as we have seen tends to hit brick walls in the playoffs as of late. We all saw what happened in '16 when he just fell apart in the finals, and it happened again this year.

Ultimately, we have won 0 Stanley Cups with Thornton, and are probably near the league’s bottom-5 in terms of teams with a chance at a Stanley Cup in the future.

This is just ridiculous hysterical hyperbole. Stop it. Literally nothing backs that up.
 
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JoeThorntonsRooster

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Here's a trivia question -- between Thornton, Kopitar, Toews, and Crosby, which player has led their team in playoff scoring the most times over that timeframe?



This is just ridiculous hysterical hyperbole. Stop it. Literally nothing backs that up.

Toews has led his team in playoff scoring 3 times in that time frame
Kopitar has led his team in playoff scoring 2 times in that time frame
Crosby has led his team in playoff scoring 2 times in that time frame
Thornton has led his team in playoff scoring 2 times in that time frame

So, it would be a win for Toews. I’m guessing that question was a mistake and I’ve already conceded that offensively, playoff Patrick Kane is better than any playoff forward the Sharks have ever had. Same goes for Malkin, and so Toews and Crosby (who led his team this year with 21 points in 12 games; the same amount of points as Thornton’s career high which he achieved in twice as many games) are going against much tougher competition on their own team in order to lead their teams in scoring.

You can call it ridiculous hysterical hyperbole, but I don’t see how the Sharks have any chance at a Stanley Cup in the near or distant future. The Sharks’ future looks awful. They don’t even have any forwards of a Couture, Pavelski, Marleau caliber in the pipeline; let alone a Thornton. We can all agree that Thornton is the only reason they’ve been a competitive team for so long and we aren’t going to luck our way into another Joe Thornton trade any time soon.
 

boredatwork

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For me, it's hard to say whether Joe himself has been good or bad in the playoffs. As a guy who makes his money as a passer, he relies on people finishing plays. I really think that other teams focused on specifically taking him out of the game.

So, is it him, or is it his playstyle that made him not as good as hoped for in the playoffs? I'd probably point at his playstyle. Either way, he has been solid, but you expect more from a player of his caliber.

I completely agree with this point. Yes, I love Thornton and I will defend him as a player, but his play style is completely on him. His inability to shoot the puck makes him a one dimensional player in the playoffs and on the power play. We've all watched other teams give Thornton space so they can defend his options. Now, Thornton does absolutely burn others teams for doing this, however, if he drove the net or actually took a shot more often, he would open up more space for others to operate instead of running out of options and going back to the point.

I think Couture's shot alone accounts for his totals and, while Pavelski does receive some perfect passes from Thornton, the guy takes a beating in front of the net to score. Thornton relying too much on others is a weakness. I agree with others that goaltending, unfortunate injuries, depth account for the playoff exits, an over-reliance on the power play, and McClellan's inability to make an in-series adjustment (I like DeBoer better in this regard). Thornton's play style is right up there too.

Honestly, before the injury last season, Thornton was shooting and scoring on the umbrella power play and other teams did not have an answer. Once teams began to respect Thornton's shot, Burns became an option again and the opposite winger had open looks on the cross ice pass. I remember thinking to myself that the coaching staff was genius for making this move and wondering how much more lethal the Sharks could have been if Thornton started playing this way earlier in his career.
 

Alwalys

Phu m.
May 19, 2010
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So, it would be a win for Toews. I’m guessing that question was a mistake and I’ve already conceded that offensively, playoff Patrick Kane is better than any playoff forward the Sharks have ever had. Same goes for Malkin, and so Toews and Crosby (who led his team this year with 21 points in 12 games; the same amount of points as Thornton’s career high which he achieved in twice as many games) are going against much tougher competition on their own team in order to lead their teams in scoring.

No it's not a mistake (see my edit above for clarification). What it shows is that the 1C leading scoring isn't in and of itself the key to success, nor can the supposed greats consistently do it any more than Thornton (you can't add this year for Crosby as Thornton didn't play, otherwise you'd have to add other years where Thornton consistently led the team in scoring prior to the timeframe specified.) Having far better secondary players IS the point, it's not just a one-way street with any one player. Having these other superstar players on the team as good or better than the 1C makes a HUGE difference in terms of matchups and gameplanning. In our finals series with the pens, it was the 3rd line and Malkin that killed us, not Crosby.

Well that and Hertl's knee. f***ing Hornqvist.
 

JoeThorntonsRooster

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No it's not a mistake (see my edit above for clarification). What it shows is that the 1C leading scoring isn't in and of itself the key to success, nor can the supposed greats consistently do it any more than Thornton (you can't add this year for Crosby as Thornton didn't play, otherwise you'd have to add other years where Thornton consistently led the team in scoring prior to the timeframe specified.) Having far better secondary players IS the point, it's not just a one-way street with any one player. Having these other superstar players on the team as good or better than the 1C makes a HUGE difference in terms of matchups and gameplanning. In our finals series with the pens, it was the 3rd line and Malkin that killed us, not Crosby.

Statistically speaking, it was Thornton that killed us against the Penguins.

Thornton played 42 minutes against Crosby and the Sharks scored 0 goals and allowed 2 in that time frame. Thornton played 31 minutes against Cullen (with 39 offensive zone starts and 5 defensive zone starts!!!) and the Sharks scored 1 goal and allowed 1 goal in that time frame. Thornton played 26 minutes against Bonino and the Sharks scored 0 goals and allowed 2 in that time frame. (All 5V5 numbers)

That’s disgusting. He got 39 offensive zone starts and 5 defensive zone starts against the #4C and he came up even in GF. He got crushed by Crosby and Nick Bonino in GF. If you have to give your #1C 88% OZ starts against the other team’s #4C in order for that player not to get crushed, the problem is the #1C.

I’m willing to accept that Thornton never had the Malkin, Duncan Keith, or Doughty level superstars that Toews/Crosby/Kopitar had. The closest was Burns in 2016. But Thornton himself has also not been good enough; as evidenced by the fact that over that time frame, Thornton is tied in playoff scoring with the guys who have also not been good enough as the secondary and tertiary players.

Also, again, remember that we are comparing Thornton to DEFENSIVE centers. Toews and Kopitar not only lead their team in scoring as often or more often than Thornton, but they do it while taking more D-Zone starts against top competition. Meanwhile, Thornton gets creamed in offensive roles against Paul Stastny and Dave Bolland. Sometimes, Joe Pavelski can carry him out of it and will the team to victory despite that, like in the 2010 series against Colorado. Usually it isn’t enough. That kind of thing doesn’t happen all that much more often with guys like Toews, Crosby, Kopitar. Generally, if Crosby, Toews, and Kopitar play at a Thornton level for 4 rounds, they will lose at some point. The only exceptions, offensive production wise, are Toews in 2013 and Crosby in 2016 and neither of those guys got demolished defensively and finished heavy in the minus column the way Thornton consistently has.
 

Alwalys

Phu m.
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Statistically speaking, it was Thornton that killed us against the Penguins.

Thornton played 42 minutes against Crosby and the Sharks scored 0 goals and allowed 2 in that time frame. Thornton played 31 minutes against Cullen (with 39 offensive zone starts and 5 defensive zone starts!!!) and the Sharks scored 1 goal and allowed 1 goal in that time frame. Thornton played 26 minutes against Bonino and the Sharks scored 0 goals and allowed 2 in that time frame. (All 5V5 numbers)

That’s disgusting. He got 39 offensive zone starts and 5 defensive zone starts against the #4C and he came up even in GF. He got crushed by Crosby and Nick Bonino in GF. If you have to give your #1C 88% OZ starts against the other team’s #4C in order for that player not to get crushed, the problem is the #1C.

I’m willing to accept that Thornton never had the Malkin, Duncan Keith, or Doughty level superstars that Toews/Crosby/Kopitar had. The closest was Burns in 2016. But Thornton himself has also not been good enough; as evidenced by the fact that over that time frame, Thornton is tied in playoff scoring with the guys who have also not been good enough as the secondary and tertiary players.

Also, again, remember that we are comparing Thornton to DEFENSIVE centers. Toews and Kopitar not only lead their team in scoring as often or more often than Thornton, but they do it while taking more D-Zone starts against top competition. Meanwhile, Thornton gets creamed in offensive roles against Paul Stastny and Dave Bolland. Sometimes, Joe Pavelski can carry him out of it and will the team to victory despite that, like in the 2010 series against Colorado. Usually it isn’t enough. That kind of thing doesn’t happen all that much more often with guys like Toews, Crosby, Kopitar. Generally, if Crosby, Toews, and Kopitar play at a Thornton level for 4 rounds, they will lose at some point. The only exceptions, offensive production wise, are Toews in 2013 and Crosby in 2016 and neither of those guys got demolished defensively and finished heavy in the minus column the way Thornton consistently has.

Except our top line was basically done by the time those shifts came around with hertl going down and pavelski injured or doing his impression of an injury-finished player (which we all saw at the time as he flubbed multiple great Thornton setups).

Then you look from the opposite angle, Cullen's line was effective all playoffs both recent cup years and he averaged almost 14 minutes a game, could we expect our fourth line to even play any of their top three lines to a draw, let alone beat the matchup? That's a huge luxury to have. And if your depth doesn't come through you can lose despite absolute heroics from your superstars, see Crosby this year.

C'mon man you are the creator of the tank monster theory. You know full well how important high end talent depth is.

This is all results bias, forgetting what we saw with our own eyes.
 
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stator

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Apr 17, 2012
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The problem with reading playoff stats is the injury factor against a small sample set.

How do you factor in that a player was not 100% for that post-season?
 

JoeThorntonsRooster

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Except our top line was basically done by the time those shifts came around with hertl going down and pavelski injured or doing his impression of an injury-finished player (which we all saw at the time as he flubbed multiple great Thornton setups).

Then you look from the opposite angle, Cullen's line was effective all playoffs both recent cup years and he averaged almost 14 minutes a game, could we expect our fourth line to even play any of their top three lines to a draw, let alone beat the matchup? That's a huge luxury to have. And if your depth doesn't come through you can lose despite absolute heroics from your superstars, see Crosby this year.

C'mon man you are the creator of the tank monster theory. You know full well how important high end talent depth is.

This is all results bias, forgetting what we saw with our own eyes.

I’ve already agreed that Thornton hasn’t had a team like the 2016 Penguins or 2013 Hawks to carry him to victory despite a poor performance.

So now, we are crediting the 4th line players that Thornton plays against? No, the Sharks have never had a Matt Cullen draw their opponent’s #1C to evens, or a Nick Bonino or a Dave Bolland to demolish their opponent’s #1C. But did you ever think for a second that maybe that’s because most #1Cs in the playoffs - particularly those who play in the higher rounds - are generally not getting demolished by the Nick Boninos and Dave Bollands of the world? Are we really going to say “nah man, it’s not Thornton’s fault for getting crushed by Nick Bonino and Dave Bolland, it’s Doug Wilson’s fault for not getting us a Nick Bonino or Dave Bolland? When both those guys are decent 3rd line centers?

Thornton has never put up the heroics in a losing effort the way that Crosby did this year. Not even close, so it’s a pointless comparison. The only year he wasn’t totally demolished in a losing effort was in 2012 against St. Louis and 2013 against LA and in 2013, of course he scored 0 points in games 5 and 7 of that series.

In general, I trust results over what I see with my own eyes. Especially when the sample size is this massive and provides as consistent of a trend as it does.

The problem with reading playoff stats is the injury factor against a small sample set.

How do you factor in that a player was not 100% for that post-season?

Everybody plays injured in the playoffs. Thornton has 160 playoff games worth of being below par for a #1C. Not a valid excuse.
 

JoeThorntonsRooster

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This "Nabokov never lost a series where the Sharks scored more than 2 goals per game so that excuses his hilariously pathetic goaltending performances" narrative needs to die. When you outshoot a Ducks roster that had three NHL forwards and twelve guys who belonged in the middle six of an average AHL team 35-16 your goalie needs to come up with a shutout there. Even a reasonably competent goalie would have done so. When you outshoot that same Ducks team 44-26 in the next game your goalie can't give up three goals. That needs to be a 2-1 or 2-0 win. Same goes for the previous year against Dallas where Nabokov gave up three goals including a weak OT winner on 18 shots in a game we dominated after a series against Calgary that never should have gone seven games if it wasn't for Nabokov continually blowing easy saves.

Go rewatch the video from some of these playoff series, especially the one against Chicago. It's not just that Nabokov gave up too many goals, he was routinely giving up goals on shots that no one would categorize as a scoring chance. He was awful and Niemi was worse. Yes, the Sharks should have scored more but way more of that comes down to McLellan's stubbornness and incompetence when it came to running the offense than Thornton slightly underproducing his regular season numbers.



Of course not. Which is fine because the odds of Thornton continuing to average less than half a point per game are essentially nil. This is what people don't seem to understand about how much goaltending and other factors kneecapped us - the teams that win championships have stretches in the playoffs where their superstar isn't producing and either the goaltender or depth scoring comes through and steals those games which allows for a longer playoff run and more time for the superstar to inevitably start producing again. Thornton never got that chance in many postseasons because the goaltending was just that bad, no one else was putting the puck in the net, or both. NHL teams don't and can't win on superstar talent alone.

I think it’s hilarious that you hold Nabokov and Niemi - two solid starting goaltenders who were never elite - to a much higher standard than Joe Thornton, who is a Hall of Fame Superstar center.

Nabokov needs to come up with a shutout on 16 shots against. Nabokov can’t allow less 3 goals on 26 shots; that needs to be a 2-1 or 2-0 win. By your own words, Nabokov needs to allow 1 or 0 goals on 42 shots over the course of 2 games. Yet, Thornton, who is actually a Hall of Famer and somebody who is a bit more deserving of such ridiculous expectations, is totally absolved of all blame in the playoffs? Wild.

First it was on Nabokov/Niemi that Thornton had been consistently crushed in playoff matchups (ignoring that the worst series for matchups was probably against Bonino/Crosby/Cullen where Martin Jones was in net and put up an elite performance), and now it’s on Todd McLellan for Thornton having a GF/60 of 1 in these matchups we are talking about. Good to know.

Thornton did not slightly under-produce his regular season numbers. Let’s kill this right now. From 2005-2006 through 2016-2017, excluding the 2014-2015 season where there were no playoffs and 2016-2017 where Joe Thornton was crippled in the playoffs:

103 points in 121 playoff games (0.85 PPG)
820 points in 757 regular season games (1.08 PPG)

That’s a 0.23 drop in points per game.

I just think it’s crazy how you guys will blame Thornton for literally nothing!!! This guy draws even with 38 OZ, 9 NZ and 5 DZ starts against Matt Cullen, gets crushed with 66.67% OZ starts against Dave Bolland, and the blame is now on Doug Wilson for not acquiring decent bottom-6ers comparable to Bolland, Cullen, and Bonino? Dan Boyle/Brent Burns, Logan Couture, and Joe Pavelski score as many playoff points as Thornton since 2009-2010, and the blame is now on those players for not scoring significantly more than Joe Thornton?

If Couture, Boyle/Burns, and Pavelski are not good enough to be the 2nd best player on a Stanley Cup winner, and they are scoring as much as Thornton in the playoffs, then what gives? Maladroit, you’ve said that Pavelski is a product of Thornton. In that case, why on earth does Thornton not receive blame for scoring less playoff than Pavelski between 2009-2010 and 2016-2017? Why can we blame every single player except Thornton?

The reality is, there are some non-#1C differences between the Sharks and most Stanley Cup winners. Our #3Cs might not be as effective as Nick Bonino or Dave Bolland, and our #4Cs might not be as effective as Matt Cullen. Our 2nd best offensive player may not be as good as Patrick Kane. Our goaltender may not be as good as Tim Thomas or Jonathan Quick. But the biggest difference, and the one that has consistently been the case year after year, has been that Joe Thornton has not been as effective as the Stanley Cup winning team’s #1C.

We’ve had our #2C score 30 points in 24 games, 17 points in 15 games. We’ve had our #1RW score 14 goals. We’ve had our goaltender put up a Conn Smythe performance in a losing effort and we’ve had our goaltender put up a .930 SV% more than once. We’ve had our #1LW score a goal per game in back to back losing efforts in the conference finals. We’ve had that same #1LW score 9 goals and 5 assists in 11 games. We’ve had a defenseman score 24 points in 24 games - the most playoff points by a defenseman since Brian Leetch. And another defenseman score 30 points in 33 games over the course of 2 playoff runs. A lot of those things happened in the same years. The one thing we have never had is a dominant #1C that just took games over and was the best player for 4 rounds.
 
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Barrie22

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Aug 11, 2009
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I think it’s hilarious that you hold Nabokov and Niemi - two solid starting goaltenders who were never elite - to a much higher standard than Joe Thornton, who is a Hall of Fame Superstar center.

Nabokov needs to come up with a shutout on 16 shots against. Nabokov can’t allow less 3 goals on 26 shots; that needs to be a 2-1 or 2-0 win. By your own words, Nabokov needs to allow 1 or 0 goals on 42 shots over the course of 2 games. Yet, Thornton, who is actually a Hall of Famer and somebody who is a bit more deserving of such ridiculous expectations, is totally absolved of all blame in the playoffs? Wild.

First it was on Nabokov/Niemi that Thornton had been consistently crushed in playoff matchups (ignoring that the worst series for matchups was probably against Bonino/Crosby/Cullen where Martin Jones was in net and put up an elite performance), and now it’s on Todd McLellan for Thornton having a GF/60 of 1 in these matchups we are talking about. Good to know.

Thornton did not slightly under-produce his regular season numbers. Let’s kill this right now. From 2005-2006 through 2016-2017, excluding the 2014-2015 season where there were no playoffs and 2016-2017 where Joe Thornton was crippled in the playoffs:

103 points in 121 playoff games (0.85 PPG)
820 points in 757 regular season games (1.08 PPG)

That’s a 0.23 drop in points per game.

I just think it’s crazy how you guys will blame Thornton for literally nothing!!! This guy draws even with 38 OZ, 9 NZ and 5 DZ starts against Matt Cullen, gets crushed with 66.67% OZ starts against Dave Bolland, and the blame is now on Doug Wilson for not acquiring decent bottom-6ers comparable to Bolland, Cullen, and Bonino? Dan Boyle/Brent Burns, Logan Couture, and Joe Pavelski score as many playoff points as Thornton since 2009-2010, and the blame is now on those players for not scoring significantly more than Joe Thornton?

If Couture, Boyle/Burns, and Pavelski are not good enough to be the 2nd best player on a Stanley Cup winner, and they are scoring as much as Thornton in the playoffs, then what gives? Maladroit, you’ve said that Pavelski is a product of Thornton. In that case, why on earth does Thornton not receive blame for scoring less playoff than Pavelski between 2009-2010 and 2016-2017? Why can we blame every single player except Thornton?

The reality is, there are some non-#1C differences between the Sharks and most Stanley Cup winners. Our #3Cs might not be as effective as Nick Bonino or Dave Bolland, and our #4Cs might not be as effective as Matt Cullen. Our 2nd best offensive player may not be as good as Patrick Kane. Our goaltender may not be as good as Tim Thomas or Jonathan Quick. But the biggest difference, and the one that has consistently been the case year after year, has been that Joe Thornton has not been as effective as the Stanley Cup winning team’s #1C.

We’ve had our #2C score 30 points in 24 games, 17 points in 15 games. We’ve had our #1RW score 14 goals. We’ve had our goaltender put up a Conn Smythe performance in a losing effort and we’ve had our goaltender put up a .930 SV% more than once. We’ve had our #1LW score a goal per game in back to back losing efforts in the conference finals. We’ve had that same #1LW score 9 goals and 5 assists in 11 games. We’ve had a defenseman score 24 points in 24 games - the most playoff points by a defenseman since Brian Leetch. And another defenseman score 30 points in 33 games over the course of 2 playoff runs. A lot of those things happened in the same years. The one thing we have never had is a dominant #1C that just took games over and was the best player for 4 rounds.

No center you have mentioned in the past 5 pages of this thread has ever been dominate and taken over games for 4 straight rounds.
 
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JoeThorntonsRooster

Don’t say eye test when you mean points
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No center you have mentioned in the past 5 pages of this thread has ever been dominate and taken over games for 4 straight rounds.

Kuznetsov who literally just won the Stanley Cup:

4 goals, 4 assists in 6 games against Columbus
3 goals, 3 assists in 6 games against Pittsburgh
4 goals, 6 assists in 7 games against Columbus
1 goal, 7 assists in 5 games against Vegas

Perhaps “the best player for 4 rounds” is a bit much. But if I just said “a dominant #1C”, my point would still apply.
 

WTFetus

Marlov
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No center you have mentioned in the past 5 pages of this thread has ever been dominate and taken over games for 4 straight rounds.

jake-confuso-16871.gif
 
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