Speculation: Summer 2018 Roster Discussion Part IV

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Pinkfloyd

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Yup thornton scores 5 in 6 . Marleau 3 in 6, pavs 1 in 6, cheechoo 2 in 6, clowe 2 in 6.

Thorntons fault.

Thornton 5 in 5. Marleau 0 in 5. Pavs 0 in 5. Couture 4 in 5.

Thorntons fault.

And those are 2 series in which thornton has been heavily criticized for on this board.

Thornton was outplayed in both of those series. The first one by a heavy amount and the second one to lesser talents than him but at least the second one had a lot more blame to go around. That team was too slow and the coaches were too stubborn to change tactics against what Hitchcock and the Blues were doing to them.
 
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Juxtaposer

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Yup thornton scores 5 in 6 . Marleau 3 in 6, pavs 1 in 6, cheechoo 2 in 6, clowe 2 in 6.

Thorntons fault.

Thornton 5 in 5. Marleau 0 in 5. Pavs 0 in 5. Couture 4 in 5.

Thorntons fault.

And those are 2 series in which thornton has been heavily criticized for on this board.

Just because other Sharks were worse doesn’t absolve Thornton of his faults.
 

TomasHertlsRooster

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Yup thornton scores 5 in 6 . Marleau 3 in 6, pavs 1 in 6, cheechoo 2 in 6, clowe 2 in 6.

Thorntons fault.

Thornton 5 in 5. Marleau 0 in 5. Pavs 0 in 5. Couture 4 in 5.

Thorntons fault.

And those are 2 series in which thornton has been heavily criticized for on this board.

I haven’t seen anybody crticize his performance in 2012 against St. Louis...that’s one of the series where he definitely gets a pass from me. Not sure which one the first one is.

Also, Thornton is the best player of the bunch. He is expected to do the most; those are the expectations of a #1C and that is what a Stanley Cup #1C almost always ends up doing.
 

spintops

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Is it fair to say, if Thornton's linemates don't score he is going to have a lopsided GF%? Jumbo is about the assists, if his teammates can't put it in the net his lines not scoring. I would say he depends on his guys actually showing up more then other 1Cs because he is so dependent on passing / assists
 

Jaleel619

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I'm in the camp of not everybody gets to win. People will say jumbos a choker this and that but that is all mostly posturing for getting dumped on year after year for not even being able to compete in the regular season.
 

TomasHertlsRooster

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Is it fair to say, if Thornton's linemates don't score he is going to have a lopsided GF%? Jumbo is about the assists, if his teammates can't put it in the net his lines not scoring. I would say he depends on his guys actually showing up more then other 1Cs because he is so dependent on passing / assists

And yet he has played with so many different guys...Marleau, Heatley, Pavelski, Cheechoo; 4 different 40 goal scorers just off the top of my head. So many different linemates, so many different situations, so many different opponents. And the one constant across all of them is that Thornton lost his matchups at 5V5 in the playoffs and didn’t make up for it with individual production on special teams.

On top of that, Marleau and Pavelski both increase their goals per game in the playoffs over the course of their careers with a very hefty sample size that includes over 100 playoff games and over 40 playoff games for both. I am not, for a second, buying the argument that his linemates are when some of his linemates have a history of being clutch in the playoffs and Thornton is the most important player on his line.

Guys like Crosby and Ovechkin explode in the playoffs and turn Jake Guentzel and Tom Wilson into prolific playoff scorers. If Thornton can’t do that with any one of Joe Pavelski, Dany Heatley, Patrick Marleau, and Jonathan Cheechoo, that’s on him.
 
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Shark Finn

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I had a dream where DW signed Pavelski to a 7x7 deal just because "nothing was happening this summer and he wanted to give out big news". I can say I'm glad I woke up.
 

Jaleel619

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DW is as cool as cucumber in these situations, hes not going to do anything. I gotta tell ya I bet hes askin round if anybody has anymore of them star players with character issues.
 

OrrNumber4

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Whether a sample size is significant isn't merely dependent on the size of the sample itself but the discrepancy being observed. If Thornton had averaged half a point per game or something in his playoff career then sure I'd buy that he's a choker or something weird is going on or whatever. We're talking about a player who has averaged 1.01 points per game in the regular season with the Sharks averaging 0.84 points per game in the playoffs. Scoring goes down about 10% in the playoffs so if Thornton's offensive game was identical from the regular season to the playoffs we'd expect him to score 0.9 points per game in the postseason over the long haul. Instead, he's scored 0.06 points per game less than that - the difference of one point every 17 playoff games.

125 games is not nearly a large enough sample size to conclude that a 0.06 points per game drop is being driven by anything other than random variance. You're also assigning way too much responsibility for the Sharks' playoff failures to one player who's on the ice for about 1/3rd of the game scoring 6% less than we'd expect him to. Before Jones arrived the Sharks' playoff SV% in the Thornton era was a .906. No team is winning a Cup with that kind of playoff goaltending. Outside of 2011 and 2014 those teams also had bottom sixes staffed with useless players and the closest thing they had to a No. 1 defenseman was Dan Boyle who I love but is not nearly the same level, regular season or playoffs, as a Keith, Doughty, Lidstrom, Chara, Pronger or Niedermayer.

To me 2009 and 2014 were the Sharks' best chances to win the Cup (yes, better than 2016 - we were lucky to make the Final and were never beating that Penguins team) and I agree that Thornton could have been much better in both of those first round exits but it barely matters given how utterly kneecapped we were by the goaltending performance.

Other posters have already responded to your main arguments, but I wanted to point out that scoring does not drop by 10% between RS and playoffs. It is more like 3% IIRC. Plus, Thornton’s plus-minus in the playoffs is legendarily atrocious. Also, your averages will be off since there are a few seasons where Thornton didn’t play in the playoffs and had relatively poor RS production (like this season).

The other thing which must be brought up is Thornton’s performance in the final games of series. If you look at games 5-7 of a series, Thornton scores at a .5PPG rate and is like -18 from 2006 to 2016.

Yup thornton scores 5 in 6 . Marleau 3 in 6, pavs 1 in 6, cheechoo 2 in 6, clowe 2 in 6.

Thorntons fault.

Thornton 5 in 5. Marleau 0 in 5. Pavs 0 in 5. Couture 4 in 5.

Thorntons fault.

And those are 2 series in which thornton has been heavily criticized for on this board.

1) This is statistical revisionism. People look at a decent stat line from years ago and conclude a player has been good/bad, yet people who actually watched him play at the time have a completely different opinion. Thornton had some garbage points in that series and was thoroughly broken by Rob Niedermayer.

2) No one faults Thornton for his performance against St.Louis. I’m not sure how you came to the conclusion that that is the series people criticize him for. A much better option would have been the multiple series against LA, or the one against Pittsburgh, or Chicago, or Edmonton, or Dallas...
 
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OrrNumber4

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TL;DR: We’re not acquiring a forward who is on a different level from Tavares without undergoing a tank. Tavares was our best opportunity to acquire a top forward and just because we missed out on Tavares, does not mean that we are going to acquire that franchise level forward anytime soon. We are going to go through the same exact process without him that we would have gone through with him and because of that, we would be significantly better with him on our team. Missing out on him sucks.

This is a solid point...I hadn’t really considered the managerial dynamics.

I concur that the team is unlikely to tank whilst DW is GM...but the idea that the organizational never will? I’m not completely sold on that.
 
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hohosaregood

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Acquiring thornton was a huge mistake on DW's part. He really should've tanked those years when the GOAT Canadian, Russian, and American players were available. Thornton single handedly made us a team too good for a tank to even be a question in the mind. So what does that do? Big time whiff on not getting Patrick Kane. The best American forward of all time. Singlehandedly screwed us over.
 
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Pinkfloyd

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I'm in the minority that lays blame at Thornton's feet in the Blues series but that team had so many problems that you can't only blame him. Thornton in the Blues series didn't really do anything when it counted 5 on 5 until game 5.
 

Maladroit

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Acquiring thornton was a huge mistake on DW's part. He really should've tanked those years when the GOAT Canadian, Russian, and American players were available. Thornton single handedly made us a team too good for a tank to even be a question in the mind. So what does that do? Big time whiff on not getting Patrick Kane. The best American forward of all time. Singlehandedly screwed us over.

Right, who the f*** were we supposed to tank for in the past 12 years who's remotely on Thornton's level? McDavid is the only one and we actually did miss the playoffs that year and have a shot at him.

The reality is if we never traded for Thornton there would be no playoff expectations to underperform because the team would have spent a decade in the toilet. The revisionist history in this thread is incredible.
 
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Pinkfloyd

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Right, who the **** were we supposed to tank for in the past 12 years who's remotely on Thornton's level? McDavid is the only one and we actually did miss the playoffs that year and have a shot at him.

The reality is if we never traded for Thornton there would be no playoff expectations to underperform because the team would have spent a decade in the toilet. The revisionist history in this thread is incredible.

Which revisionist history? There are a lot of statements in this thread that can simultaneously be true. It's true that he's the biggest reason playoff expectations are what they are. It's also true that some of the series being mentioned, he wasn't good in.
 

Maladroit

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Which revisionist history? There are a lot of statements in this thread that can simultaneously be true. It's true that he's the biggest reason playoff expectations are what they are. It's also true that some of the series being mentioned, he wasn't good in.

I've never claimed he was amazing in every playoff series. No player is. But he has absolutely been good enough in the playoffs during his Sharks tenure that the team should have won at least one Cup if their goaltending hadn't imploded on an annual basis. If we're assigning blame for the Sharks playoff failures the names at the top of the list are Antti Niemi, Todd McLellan and Evgeni Nabokov and no one even comes close apart from maybe Doug Wilson for never figuring out how to acquire competent depth scoring. Thornton isn't even in the discussion.
 
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Pavelski2112

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I've never claimed he was amazing in every playoff series. No player is. But he has absolutely been good enough in the playoffs during his Sharks tenure that the team should have won at least one Cup if their goaltending hadn't imploded on an annual basis. If we're assigning blame for the Sharks playoff failures the names at the top of the list are Antti Niemi, Todd McLellan and Evgeni Nabokov and no one even comes close apart from maybe Doug Wilson for never figuring out how to acquire competent depth scoring. Thornton isn't even in the discussion.

Also having guys like Brad Stuart in the top-4
 

Pinkfloyd

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I've never claimed he was amazing in every playoff series. No player is. But he has absolutely been good enough in the playoffs during his Sharks tenure that the team should have won at least one Cup if their goaltending hadn't imploded on an annual basis. If we're assigning blame for the Sharks playoff failures the names at the top of the list are Antti Niemi, Todd McLellan and Evgeni Nabokov and no one even comes close apart from maybe Doug Wilson for never figuring out how to acquire competent depth scoring. Thornton isn't even in the discussion.

The Blackhawks won the Cup with Niemi because their team was good enough to overcome poor goaltending and that's the kind of team that DW needed to build but never really did. Niemi's performance with Chicago included a series win with .898 and .882 save percentages. Nabokov and Niemi both have had statistically similar series in their careers and the team has shown sporadically that it can overcome it but didn't. The reality is that the top of the list for those failures to blame will always be Doug Wilson because he put those teams together and has had many years to figure it out and hasn't. But the teams were never good enough in front of the goaltending to be what it needed to be to win a Cup. Goaltending is going to go up and down just like the skaters will so you need to have a very good team up and down the lineup and there have always been too many holes in the Sharks lineup especially on defense.
 

Maladroit

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The Blackhawks won the Cup with Niemi because their team was good enough to overcome poor goaltending and that's the kind of team that DW needed to build but never really did. Niemi's performance with Chicago included a series win with .898 and .882 save percentages. Nabokov and Niemi both have had statistically similar series in their careers and the team has shown sporadically that it can overcome it but didn't. The reality is that the top of the list for those failures to blame will always be Doug Wilson because he put those teams together and has had many years to figure it out and hasn't. But the teams were never good enough in front of the goaltending to be what it needed to be to win a Cup. Goaltending is going to go up and down just like the skaters will so you need to have a very good team up and down the lineup and there have always been too many holes in the Sharks lineup especially on defense.

That Blackhawks team was at worst the third best team of the salary cap era. The Sharks have never constructed a team that good in their history and Joe Thornton is not the reason why.

Regardless the only reason they won the series against Philly with Niemi posting a .898 is that Leighton put up a .894. I'm not sure which series you're referring to where he had a .882 - that doesn't appear to have ever happened. Of course you can win a series with rotten goaltending if your opponent's goalie plays even worse. That hasn't happened for the Sharks in the Thornton era but that's very obviously not an argument for absolving Niemi.

In 2009 they ran into the best six games of Jonas Hiller's life while Nabokov let absolutely everything in and in 2014 Quick sucked but Niemi and Stalock were far worse. Those are the only years they've had a good enough roster relative to the field that they should have won the Cup. Maybe 2011 but again Niemi utterly shit the bed while Luongo was great.

I'll also say that to the extent the Sharks had a knack for making opposing goalies look superhuman a lot of that boils down to the conservative and predictable dump and chase, cycle the puck, send it to the back point offense McLellan was running and a complete lack of any offensive skill on the third and fourth lines or really the blueline outside of Boyle.

It's just such a lazy narrative to blame Thornton for the Sharks' failure to win in this era. The Sharks may be the best regular season team of the past 12 years overall but you really can't point to a single season where they were the absolute best. 09 and 14 come close but you can still make credible arguments for Detroit and Calgary in 09 then obviously the Kings and Hawks in 14. There's also the issue that until basically 2015 the conferences were severely imbalanced and the Sharks would always have to run the gauntlet just to get out of the West meanwhile every team the Eastern Conference sent to the Stanley Cup Final from Carolina in 2006 through NYR in 2014 was an absolute joke.
 
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Pinkfloyd

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That Blackhawks team was at worst the third best team of the salary cap era. The Sharks have never constructed a team that good in their history and Joe Thornton is not the reason why.

Regardless the only reason they won the series against Philly with Niemi posting a .898 is that Leighton put up a .894. I'm not sure which series you're referring to where he had a .882 - that doesn't appear to have ever happened. Of course you can win a series with rotten goaltending if your opponent's goalie plays even worse. That hasn't happened for the Sharks in the Thornton era but that's very obviously not an argument for absolving Niemi.

In 2009 they ran into the best six games of Jonas Hiller's life while Nabokov let absolutely everything in and in 2014 Quick sucked but Niemi and Stalock were far worse. Those are the only years they've had a good enough roster relative to the field that they should have won the Cup. Maybe 2011 but again Niemi utterly **** the bed while Luongo was great.

I never said that Thornton was the reason why. The reason why someone like Leighton puts up a marginally worse save percentage is because the group of skaters in front is deep and talented enough to create offense against them. It's not necessarily that the other goalie plays worse as much as it is the skaters actually manufacturing offense. It actually has happened in the Thornton era where they've been able to advance despite poor save percentage numbers. In Nabokov's time, I'm pretty sure the team advanced whenever they scored more than two goals a game in a series. The offense drying up is a problem that is easier to fix than goaltending. Goaltending performances are going to go up and down regardless of who you have but if you have forward depth and blue line depth, you give yourself the best chance to overcome that. The Sharks problem has almost always come back to a lack of depth up front or on the blue line and that's absolutely DW's fault more than anyone else.
 

Pavelski2112

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In 2009 they ran into the best six games of Jonas Hiller's life while Nabokov let absolutely everything in and in 2014 Quick sucked but Niemi and Stalock were far worse. Those are the only years they've had a good enough roster relative to the field that they should have won the Cup.

2014? The year where Brad Stuart had to step in for Vlasic because we had no defensive depth? I don't think so.
 
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