Proposal: STL - BOS, Shattenkirk, Pastrnak

[Beninnola]

Assuming a contract for Shattenkirk per all rumors.

BOS receives Kevin Shattenkirk and NOT Danny Kristo (;P)
STL receives David Pastrnak and John Michael-Liles

Given Pastas pending RFA and Shattenkirks pending UFA, Boston has the choice:

High end scoring winger

Or

High end scoring defenseman

Either way, next year they will pay roughly the same for either option. Pick one or other.

Boston currently sits in bottom third of teams in PP conversion rate. Thats what Shattenkirk does. Combined, adding all of Bostons right handed defenseman point totals, that's 9 total points. Shattenkirk has 19, among leaders for all defenseman in league all season.

Colton Parayko allows the Blues to deal Shattenkirk (as opposed to simply losing to NYR in FA). The Blues need a second RW behind Tarasenko.

By point shares, the two players are within 10%, with Pasta slightly higher, which explains STL taking Michael-Liles contract.

Thoughts.

Won't happen til deadline as this is Pastrnaks last season of points/$ unless Boston is pushed by other team's interest in Shattenkirk.

Click to read more...

 

[Stlblues98]

The blues don't have Danny kristo under contract anymore.

 

[Oberyn]

We're not getting Pastrnak let's just leave it at that

 

[Beninnola]

The blues don't have Danny kristo under contract anymore.

!!!! I feel dumb.

Cut and pasted this from a conversation at another site weeks ago. Didn't notice. My bad.

 

[Sheriff Bert]

Unless Shattenkirk refuses to sign with STL, and they are really left in a pickle (ala Vanek to the Habs), Boston would have to give more.

I get that Pasta is productive, young, and has great skill, but Shattenkirk is the type of guy that you don't see on the block too much. Solid at both ends of the ice and is only 26.

Edit: Yandle is pretty one-sided, and went for Duclair, a first, John Moore, and a second just a couple of years ago. Shattenkirk is valued more than that, and that was a hefty price.

 

[Beninnola]

We're not getting Pastrnak let's just leave it at that

Just curious, why not?

Both players are near equivalent in multiple advanced stats.

Both players are set to earn a similar dollar amount next season.

It is highly common for a proficient D man to have a higher value than a proficient O man. (virtually every D-O trade the past 10 years) Every team has 2 scoring wingers. Many teams do not have an offensive defenseman.

How will Boston sign Pastrnak next season given their cap and Chara's final crippling year. They certainly cannot address their Blue line, which is the actual weakness of the team.

And worst of all, he will go to the a division rival.

 

[Beninnola]

Unless Shattenkirk refuses to sign with STL, and they are really left in a pickle (ala Vanek to the Habs), Boston would have to give more.

I get that Pasta is productive, young, and has great skill, but Shattenkirk is the type of guy that you don't see on the block too much. Solid at both ends of the ice and is only 26.

Edit: Yandle is pretty one-sided, and went for Duclair, a first, John Moore, and a second just a couple of years ago. Shattenkirk is valued more than that, and that was a hefty price.

Well, from the Blues side, I think their ask will be lower because all rumors show Shattenkirk will sign with basically BOS, NYR, and maybe a few more. Supply Demand takes a hit when the market is limited.

 

[Oberyn]

Just curious, why not?

Both players are near equivalent in multiple advanced stats.

Both players are set to earn a similar dollar amount next season.

It is highly common for a proficient D man to have a higher value than a proficient O man. (virtually every D-O trade the past 10 years) Every team has 2 scoring wingers. Many teams do not have an offensive defenseman.

How will Boston sign Pastrnak next season given their cap and Chara's final crippling year. They certainly cannot address their Blue line, which is the actual weakness of the team.

And worst of all, he will go to the a division rival.

Bruins are pretty weak on wingers already, and aside from Marchand, Pastrnak is their only other legit threat.

The emergence of Carlo for them has lessened their need for a defenseman.

Bruins could do a bridge contract with Pastrnak which would give him a much lower cap hit than what Shattenkirk would command.

I'm not a Bruins fan but that's my guess as to why they would reject this trade.

 

[RORbacon]

Well, from the Blues side, I think their ask will be lower because all rumors show Shattenkirk will sign with basically BOS, NYR, and maybe a few more. Supply Demand takes a hit when the market is limited.

Then we'll keep him for a playoff run.

 

[JRull86]

I can assure you Boston won't be trading Pastrnak.

 

[Beninnola]

Bruins are pretty weak on wingers already, and aside from Marchand, Pastrnak is their only other legit threat.

The emergence of Carlo for them has lessened their need for a defenseman.

Bruins could do a bridge contract with Pastrnak which would give him a much lower cap hit than what Shattenkirk would command.

I'm not a Bruins fan but that's my guess as to why they would reject this trade.

I got to cheat and have this exact argument already. This is the reply I had with another individual:

Carlo has 6 points. I've watched about 10 Bruins games this season. He is solid, but he is not ... one small step behind Erik Karlsson. I don't think many would project his career to the realm of "highly proficient offensive defenseman". I think he is an absolutely solid top 4.

Bridge contracts are short term gains...because in 2 years you risk paying MUCH more for a player. A bridge for a top 10 scorer is ... tough. That's just bad math.

Compare Karlsson to Subban. Karlsson signed 7 years, 6.5 per, no bridge.

Subban bridged at 5.75, then went 8mil over 9.

So basically in order to save less than 1 mil, Subban now costs over 2 mil for 2 more years.

But bottom line is, a bridge for a top 10 scorer is going to still be a ******** of money. Probably pretty close to the ******** of money Shattenkirk will get.

 

[mflo77]

Just curious, why not?

Both players are near equivalent in multiple advanced stats.

Both players are set to earn a similar dollar amount next season.

It is highly common for a proficient D man to have a higher value than a proficient O man. (virtually every D-O trade the past 10 years) Every team has 2 scoring wingers. Many teams do not have an offensive defenseman.

How will Boston sign Pastrnak next season given their cap and Chara's final crippling year. They certainly cannot address their Blue line, which is the actual weakness of the team.

And worst of all, he will go to the a division rival.

chara's crippling year? have you watched Chara this year? do you watch hockey?

 

[Beninnola]

Then we'll keep him for a playoff run.

I think when you see the "A" (despite his absence from many team functions such as when David Backes had players to his home for dinner), his substantial increase in O-Zone starts, his substantial time on PP1, the Blues are doing everything they can to increase the value for a deadline trade.

 

[Beninnola]

chara's crippling year? have you watched Chara this year? do you watch hockey?

His contract bro, not his play.

And I'm talking about NEXT year, not this year.

 

[JRull86]

His contract bro, not his play.

And I'm talking about NEXT year, not this year.

His cap hit drops to 4 million FYI.

 

[Beninnola]

His cap hit drops to 4 million FYI.

No.

His salary drops to 4 mil.

Cap hits are calculated at the average annual value.

And he will be 40.

 

[KirkOut]

lol Shattenkirk for Pastrnak gee I guess we reluctantly accept my goodness

 

[bob27]

Would take a mountain to move Pastrnak. Definitely won't happen for an upcoming UFA.

 

[JRull86]

No.

His salary drops to 4 mil.

Cap hits are calculated at the average annual value.

And he will be 40.

No. His cap hit drops to 4 million.

 

[Montecristo]

No.

His salary drops to 4 mil.

Cap hits are calculated at the average annual value.

And he will be 40.

And because he'll be 40 his cap hit will be his salary.

Either way, Boston won't trade pastrnak for shattenkirk. I have serious doubts that julien knows how to properly incorporate an offensive dman and pastrnak is younger, under team control and will cost less on the cap. Boston needs a lhd moving forward not a RHD, as Carlo has emerged and they're high on mcavoy.

 

[Beninnola]

Would take a mountain to move Pastrnak. Definitely won't happen for an upcoming UFA.

As it states above and all rumors and official news has reported, this is entirely based on the Bruins signing Shattenkirk to a multi-year deal. The Blues allowed multiple teams to negotiate with Shattenkirk and his agent during the off season.

No way this trade would ever occur without that deal being a part of it.

The deal is 5+ years of a top 5 NHL offensive defenseman for 5+ years of a top 10 scoring winger.

 

[Emerz]

No.

His salary drops to 4 mil.

Cap hits are calculated at the average annual value.

And he will be 40.

You are wrong in this situation, do some research.

And also, no to moving Pastrnak, we don't need Shattenkirk anymore with the emergence of Carlo.

 

[Beninnola]

And because he'll be 40 his cap hit will be his salary.

Either way, Boston won't trade pastrnak for shattenkirk. I have serious doubts that julien knows how to properly incorporate an offensive dman and pastrnak is younger, under team control and will cost less on the cap. Boston needs a lhd moving forward not a RHD, as Carlo has emerged and they're high on mcavoy.

OOOOOOOH. I feel so dumb, that's a cool rule (40 year cap hit).

Oh well, not the first or last time.

That does change everything though.

With Zdeno's age freeing up 2.6 mil in cap + the 3 mil BOS has right now, they are one small move from avoiding the bridge and going like 7.5 x 7

 

[BruinDust]

Assuming a contract for Shattenkirk per all rumors.

BOS receives Kevin Shattenkirk and NOT Danny Kristo (;P)
STL receives David Pastrnak and John Michael-Liles

Given Pastas pending RFA and Shattenkirks pending UFA, Boston has the choice:

High end scoring winger

Or

High end scoring defenseman

Either way, next year they will pay roughly the same for either option. Pick one or other.

Boston currently sits in bottom third of teams in PP conversion rate. Thats what Shattenkirk does. Combined, adding all of Bostons right handed defenseman point totals, that's 9 total points. Shattenkirk has 19, among leaders for all defenseman in league all season.

Colton Parayko allows the Blues to deal Shattenkirk (as opposed to simply losing to NYR in FA). The Blues need a second RW behind Tarasenko.

By point shares, the two players are within 10%, with Pasta slightly higher, which explains STL taking Michael-Liles contract.

Thoughts.

Won't happen til deadline as this is Pastrnaks last season of points/$ unless Boston is pushed by other team's interest in Shattenkirk.

Wrong.

Won't happen period.

Pastrnak is by far and away Boston's best forward under 25, and likely the face of the franchise post-Bergeron/Chara/Krejci era.

He's going nowhere.

 

[Oberyn]

I got to cheat and have this exact argument already. This is the reply I had with another individual:

Carlo has 6 points. I've watched about 10 Bruins games this season. He is solid, but he is not ... one small step behind Erik Karlsson. I don't think many would project his career to the realm of "highly proficient offensive defenseman". I think he is an absolutely solid top 4.

Bridge contracts are short term gains...because in 2 years you risk paying MUCH more for a player. A bridge for a top 10 scorer is ... tough. That's just bad math.

Compare Karlsson to Subban. Karlsson signed 7 years, 6.5 per, no bridge.

Subban bridged at 5.75, then went 8mil over 9.

So basically in order to save less than 1 mil, Subban now costs over 2 mil for 2 more years.

But bottom line is, a bridge for a top 10 scorer is going to still be a ******** of money. Probably pretty close to the ******** of money Shattenkirk will get.

Carlo isn't known as an offensive defenseman so the comparison to Karlsson makes no sense. They have Torey Krug though who is pretty good.

Bridge contracts are short term gains, yet tons of GM's do them because it provides them with cap flexibility for a couple years. Not sure why you're using Subban as an example, a franchise defenseman isn't comparable to a top line forward like Pastrnak. A better comparison is Jaden Schwartz. He took a bridge contract after a 56 point season and he got a long term extension with a cap hit of $5.4M two years later.

Do you really think Pastrnak will bridge at $5.75M? Kucherov, who is a much better player, bridged at $4.76M. Johansen bridged at $4M. I mean, Schwartz's bridge contract was for $2.3M. I don't even know why you're proclaiming Pastrnak is already a top 10 scorer in the league, he's not close to that level yet. I think you're overestimating what type of contract Pastrnak will receive.