I think most of the negativity is pushback against the over-the-top hype he was getting around the time he returned to Detroit. He was talked about with this aura of infallibility like he was the Belicheck of GM’s, head and shoulders above everyone else.
Some people were overhyping him, but most agreed he was doing a fantastic job as a GM in Tampa. They went to the Cup Final in 2015, maybe that was a bit too early, and didn't win until 2020 and 2021, maybe that was slightly too late given the Columbus-farce. Now they had some more pieces in place and hit well on both picks turning into solid players and trades turning into solid players.
Haven’t really seen an FO guy put on a pedestal like that before or since. It’s to be expected that rival fans would take some satisfaction in his being knocked down a few pegs.
Well if one gonna knock someone down a "few pegs" one better do it based on realism and not just make up that the team gonna contend too early.
It's quite fair to say that Yzerman's reign so far is, as I put it, a "moderate failure", because the club missed the playoffs last season (and the four seasons prior, though not really any fault of Yzerman's). The idea that they weren't even trying to win is absurd. Every NHL team is trying to win every game -- that's the nature of the beast. It's not a League where you get points for trying or even making logical moves. It's a League where you get points for winning. In Yzerman's reign so far, they haven't won. So, no matter what Yzerman did (even if he made mostly good moves), it's a still a "moderate failure". Sorry, but that's how big-League sports works.
If the four seasons prior isn't Yzerman's fault and they missed it one season. Let me ask this, what where they going to do in the playoffs? What is a success there? No a moderate failure is how you view it not the sports world in a cap league. If Yzerman for whatever reason had to leave the Red Wings today, his tenure so far would be seen as the opposite, a moderate success. More so, as a they did well, set up a prospect pool, got players into the lineup, started being competitive, having more players coming (whether they will succeed of getting into the lineup and becoming regulars we shall see, but the plan and opportunity is there for them).
In Yzerman's reign so far they haven't been expected to win yet.
I'd say the Wings are a year behind where they wanted to be. If they make the playoffs in 2025, most things will look rosy again for Yzerman and his legacy. Then, if they make it again in 2026, suddenly his reign will change to a "success" from where it is now, a "moderate failure".
It's a yes and a no. If they have had top 2 picks once or twice then I'd tend to agree, also lets say a little bit in the way that they were in a playoffs spot with some margin but lost out, it's sort of they would have liked to be there when the opportunity was there, but not from a that would make them much closer to winning. It would have given some playoffs experience yes.
But, to be clear, he's not a success yet -- not even close. Results are the only thing that counts.
And the results so far is they have been progressing every year, unlike most teams.
Believe it or not, I understand this. But you're talking about Yzerman's "goal" in autumn 2023. How about his goal in 2019? Did he say: "The goal is to miss the playoffs for five straight years and lose more games than we win, but to simultaneously develop the prospect pool"? No, he didn't.
Yzerman always said this would take time, he expressed it in the media, he expressed it to ownership, he expressed it anywhere. They hired him based on the knowledge that this is going take 7-8 years minimum, realistically anywhere from 8-12.
Nowhere did I say the Red Wings need to win the Stanley Cup to be considered a success.
So what is a success, making the playoffs and bouncing out?
2019-20: 45 points (pro-rated)
2020-21: 70 points (pro-rated) +25
2021-22: 74 points +4
2022-23: 80 points +6
2023-24: 91 points +11
This is what he is been doing, building a team. Yes, have they needed place fillers or pieces there who are stop gaps in reality just to learn the younger ones or be competitors for the younger ones to have something to reach too and get past, yes.
One could (not me) also argue that another GM could have had them in the playoffs by now.
And those GM's would have to trade future for present or overpay more for free agents as there been no luck per highest draft picks possible in terms of drafting high end franchise players. Short term questions whether that would be successful or not.
And you didn't answer my question: If they miss the playoffs in 2025, is Yzerman a failure? In 2025 and 2026? 2027? At what point is he a "failure"?
2027 is a good estimate whether they are on to building a contender or not. Preferably they make the playoffs this coming season if they going to improve, then points wise it should reflect into making the playoffs. Now development is not always linear, so could be a year similar to last season, and then going up in 2026 and 2027. But, 2027 and beyond I'd say their goal is to be a tough outsider, then depending on if players take the right development and/or if they manage to sign a top end player or two, they could move up into that contender status.
He's the same as almost every other GM and has an inflated reputation because he got lucky on a few mid round draft picks.
When it happens multiple times it becomes a skill. But, some luck has to be involved yes as there are a lot of factors.
If you had asked an Yzerplan Stan 5 years ago where they would be now do you honestly think they would be satisfied with where it's at?
Yes, only thing that is lacking is having being abled to draft 1st or 2nd overall and get high high end prospect/franchise player. Even though they found some others later with their picks.
Especially the absence of any gamebreaker up front after Larkin (and I'm a fan of Raymond, but he's not elite of the elite as of yet).
Yes that is what the team is lacking, either one has to be drafted, developed or traded for/signed. But, you mention a critical point. Raymond is not elite of the elite as of yet, exactly. So why is the expectations from some that Detroit should be. They can't be until Raymond among others grow into it right. So give them the time.
So patience is good as a fan, and he's building a team that will be competitive. But I don't see this core winning cups as it's appearing to be built, and his biggest fans have to admit that he's a mortal and that a lot of good fortune goes into looking like a genius GM in the contemporary NHL.
Well with good skills comes good fortune. Thing is and this has been said before and implied on multiple occasions, that the team might not ending up having as many "franchise players" from the build of it, as one haven't been in position to get those. But, the overall team is going to be very good and then one have to strive to get some high end players through UFA or trades when the opportunity is there.
In reality, it took Colorado 10-12 years to see the fruits of their labor pay off from a rebuild.
This, Landeskog was drafted in 2011 as 2nd overall. He became their captain and they won in 2022. 11 years it took from him being drafted until they won, and they weren't really seen as a contender until 2020, big contender in 2021. Now some could argue 2019, I'd say outsider then. If you really want to stretch it to 2018 I guess its possible. And they had more high end pieces through draft. They luck Detroit hasn't had, and thus when Colorado didn't have that luck, they got Makar anyway who lets be honest have exceeded expectations. Not saying he wasn't expected to be good at 4th overall, but not Conn Smythe good compared to other options at the time.
It still took a perfect storm for TBL to do what they did. They turned Drouin into Sergachev, landed a future Vezina winner Vasi in the last 1st. Sprinkle in Kucherov in the 2nd round, Point in the 3rd and that's the foundation of those really good TBL teams.
From the time they drafted Stamkos to their first Stanley Cup.....was 12 years.
Exactly, 12 years. Even though they made one final earlier, maybe too early for their plan. And won slightly too late according to plan, but they made a team that was competitive for years and not just a one off.
5 years ago we still had hope some of Zadina, Veleno, Rasmussen, Athanasiou, Mantha and Bertuzzi could be core pieces. We still had hope in a lottery win some day.
Which also show some of the challenges with different teams and their plans. Some players just don't make it up to what their projectory is, and many take longer time than expected. Some have flaws or just because of different circumstances don't end up fitting within the planned window. Veleno and Rasmussen can still be good pieces let's see.