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Statistical model predicts Ovechkin could hit 836 by age 39.

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The Zermanator said:
Well, they're not 'just assists'. He's got 1000+ points on the next closest guy, that's basically HOF career production on top of his 1800 other points. It's the sheer number of assists. Gretzky is GOAT, no question. Only guy who ever came close was Lemieux. No shame in that, Ovechkin is one of the greats in the tier immediately below them.
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i disagree that Gretzky is the greatest, points dont tell the tale. But this thread isnt about that.

If you use points than you have to assume Messier is a top 10 player of all time, and I think we can all agree he isnt close to that.
 
OVi is def up there with the best of the best all time.

Bossy for my money is the greatest pure sniper. But I'm biased.
 
illpucks said:
Ovechkin has a much higher APG.

Only time Bure reached 50 assists is when hockey was much higher scoring than any season Ovechkin's ever played in. Ovechkin had 4 50+ assist seasons in a much much lower scoring NHL than (92-93).

Ovechkin>>>Bure as an overall player.
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overall player I won't argue that. who would. I'm talking goals
 
StrongIslanders90 said:
OVi is def up there with the best of the best all time.

Bossy for my money is the greatest pure sniper. But I'm biased.
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well he might get passed by Ovechkin while playing in the most defensively strong league ever seen in the NHL.

If Ovechkin can pass him I dont think you can even be bias about that because of how amazing it would be.
 
Uncle Sam said:
i disagree that Gretzky is the greatest, points dont tell the tale. But this thread isnt about that.

If you use points than you have to assume Messier is a top 10 player of all time, and I think we can all agree he isnt close to that.
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The thing with Gretzky though isn't just points totals, it's how far ahead of his contemporaries he was. That's what makes Gretzky the greatest forward of all time (Bobby Orr gets my vote for greatest player).

Ovechkin just doesn't have that advantage over his contemporaries. Now, that very well may be due to the increased depth of talent in the league, but it's hard to justify him over 99 for that reason.
 
DanZ said:
Is it really sizable? It's like a 2-3 goal jump. Variance like that from season to season isn't uncommon at all.
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It looks more like 5 goals, which is significant enough to note IMO. And I was thinking more in the sense of a statistical projection, where all the outcomes are presumably already averaged out and the expected variance in any given season is 0. Like I could see a single player having a one year variance bump in age 35 scoring if his shooting percentage spikes, he gets a better linemate or he remains in better health, but why would a statistical model predict that? The way the article is presented the expectation on their side seems to be that goal scoring among comparable players takes a jump at age 35, which seems very much the opposite of everything else said on the matter.

To add, guys like Bure and Bossy couldn't really fit on this model due to how their careers ended and so I wonder just how many players are counted. I'm guessing there's a way-too-big input to the equation from Selanne, who's age 35 season was his big comeback year.
 
Uncle Sam said:
i disagree that Gretzky is the greatest, points dont tell the tale. But this thread isnt about that.

If you use points than you have to assume Messier is a top 10 player of all time, and I think we can all agree he isnt close to that.
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While I agree on Messier, he isn't the greatest example. In the eyes of most casual fans he would clearly be a top 10 player and I remember the old THN top 50 list back in the late 90's had him 11th.

Francis being ahead of Lemieux is more the kind of thing to talk about.
 
Ishdul said:
It looks more like 5 goals, which is significant enough to note IMO. And I was thinking more in the sense of a statistical projection, where all the outcomes are presumably already averaged out and the expected variance in any given season is 0. Like I could see a single player having a one year variance bump in age 35 scoring if his shooting percentage spikes, he gets a better linemate or he remains in better health, but why would a statistical model predict that? The way the article is presented the expectation on their side seems to be that goal scoring among comparable players takes a jump at age 35, which seems very much the opposite of everything else said on the matter.

To add, guys like Bure and Bossy couldn't really fit on this model due to how their careers ended and so I wonder just how many players are counted. I'm guessing there's a way-too-big input to the equation from Selanne, who's age 35 season was his big comeback year.
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You also have Lemieux returning at 35. Plus Hull and Messier had quite big bumps in their goals at around the same age.
 
To suggest he will score almost the same amount of goals from age 20-29 and from 30-39 is utterly preposterous (377 vs 356). The analyst wasted a huge amount of time on something that could be more accurately described by an immediate knee-jerk prediction. There are way too many unique factors and circumstances that go into a player producing into their late 30s, a lot of it isn't directly quantifiable. An experienced estimate would fare far better than any model here.

I'll guess he scores approximately this: 50, 45, 40, 40, 35, 35, 30, 30, 25, 25

That is, if he plays 9 more after this season, he will score 310 more goals putting him at 785 total. I see this as an absolute max scenario, so the original prediction of 829 is probably even more off.

A guy like Jagr has longevity because of his dominance in puck possession and play-making ability. Selanne transformed from a goal scorer into a play-maker with situational scoring ability to thrive in his late 30s.

I've never seen a player like Ovechkin keep scoring into their late 30s. Too much of his ability is weighted into his shot accuracy and power which rarely accompanies someone to those ages. I'm not saying he won't be a good player at that age, but I'm saying he'll have to find different ways to be effective than he is now.
 
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xxreact9 said:
The analyst wasted a huge amount of time on something that could be more accurately described by an immediate knee-jerk prediction.
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You can feel the way that you'd like, but Rob Vollman's got the background and the experience doing these sorts of things.

The problem when projecting outliers is that the list of valid comps is small.
 
Yeah, it is hard to project career trajectory. Look at all Crosby season points projections, all severely overestimated.

I wonder though if OV season assists will return to 40+ now that the has two 20+ goal scorers as his linemates and a good coach. He did not have 20+ goal scorer as a linemate since 11-12 Semin scored 21.
Good move to separate him with Backstrom who is finally trying to score himself on second line.
 
Ovechkin is already the best goal scorer in NHL history for me, so such a stat means very little. Now, Gretzky is known for his "praise", but the only one I actually thought as real was that Ovechkin would beat his goal record.
It is just very unlikely in the current league and when you add in the lockouts it's nearly impossible.
 
crowi said:
Ovechkin is already the best goal scorer in NHL history for me, so such a stat means very little. Now, Gretzky is known for his "praise", but the only one I actually thought as real was that Ovechkin would beat his goal record.
It is just very unlikely in the current league and when you add in the lockouts it's nearly impossible.
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So the likes of Mike Bossy, Bobby Hull and Brett Hull are 2nd tier? Did you grow up watching them?
 
Uncle Sam said:
If he were to achieve this feat, somehow pass Gretzky for most goals of all time, in this defensive game as we know it... would he be the best hockey player of all time? or just the greatest scorer of all time?
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Cups.

Cups.

Cups.
 
1v1 in ice hockey, with Martin Brodeur tending goal at both ends, who wins?
Bure or Ovechkin?
 
Ishdul said:
A little silly. Why does it project him to have a sizable jump at age 35? That feels very uncommon. Weird thing for these statistical models to predict.
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Lockout shortened season they might be predicting the year before?
 
Molon labe said:
So the likes of Mike Bossy, Bobby Hull and Brett Hull are 2nd tier? Did you grow up watching them?
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I was old when Ovechkin entered the league. That is all I will say about that there. If you disagree with me about Ovechkin, that's fine.
 
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