Statistical model predicts Ovechkin could hit 836 by age 39.

[PB12]

Rob Vollman is a pioneer in the field of hockey analytics and the co-author of Hockey Abstract. His innovations include Player Usage Charts on Home Plate Save Percentage. He will contribute a regular column to NHL.com throughout this season.

Washington Capitals forward Alexander Ovechkin is fast closing in on Sergei Fedorov for the most goals scored by a Russian-born player in the NHL.

Ovechkin, who has scored in five of six games this season, needs three goals to tie Fedorov's total of 483 goals, which he scored during an 18-year career spent mostly with the Detroit Red Wings, but also featuring stops with the Anaheim Ducks, the Columbus Blue Jackets and the Capitals. Fedorov, who left the NHL at 39, played 1,248 NHL games.

But how do these two legendary Russians compare when measured head-to-head with the various tools available through the use of analytics?

http://www.nhl.com/ice/m_news.htm?id=785036

Thought this was interesting. I posted the whole article so no one would get confused. But the question is could he catch Gretzky with him being in great shape? What do you guys think?

Click to read more...

 

[TLEH]

best pure goal scorer

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

http://www.nhl.com/ice/m_news.htm?id=785036

Thought this was interesting. I posted the whole article so no one would get confused. But the question is could he catch Gretzky with him being in great shape? What do you guys think?

If Ovi has Jagr/Selanne like longevity, he can catch Gretzky. If Ovi crosses the 800 goal mark, he will definitely be the best goalscorer of all time.

 

[Baemon Severson*]

OV is best goal scorer of all time...especially when you adjust for era

 

[ColinO]

That would be amazing indeed. This is a very interesting article. The real caveat is, as is mentioned, whether OV can remain healthy. He plays a pretty physical game compared to Gretzky but has managed so far to avoid long layoffs due to injury. I'm a huge Gretzky advocate for best goal scorer all time but OV may change that if this pans out. I hope he does - it would make for great debates.

 

[Cootsfanclub]

Now how long until Jagr becomes the all time scoring leader?

 

[Plastic Joseph]

Now how long until Jagr becomes the all time scoring leader?

At this rate another 12 years should do it.

 

[foundhockey]

I hope Ovechkin stays that long in the NHL, but if we're to believe his mother's influence, he'll retire to the KHL before he's 39. This would make me cry.

 

[Ishdul]

A little silly. Why does it project him to have a sizable jump at age 35? That feels very uncommon. Weird thing for these statistical models to predict.

 

[AINEC*]

AlexAINEC GOATvechkin

 

[NHL Fanatik*]

If he were to achieve this feat, somehow pass Gretzky for most goals of all time, in this defensive game as we know it... would he be the best hockey player of all time? or just the greatest scorer of all time?

 

[NHL Fanatik*]

A little silly. Why does it project him to have a sizable jump at age 35? That feels very uncommon. Weird thing for these statistical models to predict.

that is weird, but its also weird to think he couldnt score more than 20 at age 38-40.

Only way he doesnt achieve this I think is if he gets injured or moves back to Russia.

And is the comment about his mother wanting him back in Russia true?

 

[illpucks]

If he were to achieve this feat, somehow pass Gretzky for most goals of all time, in this defensive game as we know it... would he be the best hockey player of all time? or just the greatest scorer of all time?

Best ever after 99. His goal scoring is elite but he is becoming quite well rounded.

 

[The Zermanator]

I hope Ovechkin stays that long in the NHL, but if we're to believe his mother's influence, he'll retire to the KHL before he's 39. This would make me cry.

I imagine he'd stay if he was within striking distance of the all-time goals lead. Ovechkin in his 40s is still likely a pretty good KHL player.

Best ever after 99. His goal scoring is elite but he is becoming quite well rounded.

Until he wins a championship, he may have a hard time assuming that position. Not saying it's right, just the way these things usually are.

 

[DanZ]

A little silly. Why does it project him to have a sizable jump at age 35? That feels very uncommon. Weird thing for these statistical models to predict.

Is it really sizable? It's like a 2-3 goal jump. Variance like that from season to season isn't uncommon at all.

 

[NHL Fanatik*]

Best ever after 99. His goal scoring is elite but he is becoming quite well rounded.

Dont try and tell me Gretzky assists makes him better than Ovechkin ... :/ the fact that Ovechkin beats him WITHOUT statistical comparison and weighting due to different generations would have to mean hes the greatest, no?

 

[DanZ]

Dont try and tell me Gretzky assists makes him better than Ovechkin ... :/ the fact that Ovechkin beats him WITHOUT statistical comparison and weighting due to different generations would have to mean hes the greatest, no?

Even if Ovechkin is the best playmaker, Gretzky would remain the greatest playmaker. And Gretzky is a better goalscorer than Ovechkin is a passer...

 

[The Zermanator]

Dont try and tell me Gretzky assists makes him better than Ovechkin ... :/ the fact that Ovechkin beats him WITHOUT statistical comparison and weighting due to different generations would have to mean hes the greatest, no?

Well, they're not 'just assists'. He's got 1000+ points on the next closest guy, that's basically HOF career production on top of his 1800 other points. It's the sheer number of assists. Gretzky is GOAT, no question. Only guy who ever came close was Lemieux. No shame in that, Ovechkin is one of the greats in the tier immediately below them.

 

[karnige]

OV is best goal scorer of all time...especially when you adjust for era

In terms of pure goal scorer its between him and Bure imo. Bure almost hit 500 goals in 12 season which included a lockout and a ton of games missed to injuries.take that all awayand he did it in only 8 season. thats insanity

 

[Lonewolfe2015]

http://www.nhl.com/ice/m_news.htm?id=785036

Thought this was interesting. I posted the whole article so no one would get confused. But the question is could he catch Gretzky with him being in great shape? What do you guys think?

You should cut it down to a few key sections so people link into it.

This is a very interesting concept though. I like when people do modeling to create a hypothetical baseline. Now we have something to compare the rest of Ovie's career to. If he makes it, the model is great. If he doesn't, what happened? A trade? Age? He still has to score above 35 goals a season to reach the prediction, which seems lofty.

 

[Rebuilt]

Now how long until Jagr becomes the all time scoring leader?

Age 62

 

[Blades Ov Steel]

it's ok Gretzky fans, no one's knocking on him. He's going down as the greatest NHL player of all time. But, Ovechkin is the greatest goal scorer of all time.


read it.

http://www.japersrink.com/2015/3/31/8313139/the-historic-goal-scoring-dominance-of-alex-ovechkin

 

[illpucks]

In terms of pure goal scorer its between him and Bure imo

Ovechkin is not a pure goal scorer! He already has 80 more assists than Bure did in his entire career!

 

[karnige]

Ovechkin is not a pure goal scorer! He already has 80 more assists than Bure did in his entire career!

Bure played 12 seasons but add but his injuries and lockout he only played 8 seasons

 

[illpucks]

delete