It is hard to see this matchup as being anything but incredibly favorable to the Canes.
I think Varlamov's skill set is better vs. the Canes. Although neither are good playing the puck around/behind the net, Sorokin is too passive & helps his defenders out too little. Couple that with the fac that the Canes run a lot of their offense low to high with traffic. Varlamov is a bit better at that than Sorokin imo. But who knows.
Isles have the stay out of the box, duh. But in order to do that they're going to have to avoid getting hemmed in. And given the mobility/pinching of Carolina's D, and the relative lack of mobility of NYI's wingers other than on the Horvat line, that's a very tough ask.
NYI's best bet is to be patient, box out cleanly, keep the shots from the outside, and trust in the goalies. Because forcing the play very likely isn't going to work.