Speculation: Speculation, rumours and trade & free agency ideas thread

[Mortimer Snerd]

Just curious where are these rumors of Helle to Florida coming from?
I heard the Panthers were trying to get Binnington the other day and if that’s true the panthers are not going to give up a lot to get Helle.
Also the Devils are trying to see what they can get for Markstorm so there’s some competition out there for Chevy.
Don’t worry Hellebuyck will being starting for the Jets next season.

That's what I'm worried about.

 

[Xavier Laflamme]

At first glance, I look at that and think "that's crazy, he'll never get that..."

But then I remember the deals he's pulled off in the past. Makes you wonder if there won't be a fanbase our there complaining about what their GM got talked into giving up for Helle lol

Even his most recent trade, getting value from Stan and Schenn was wild to me, like not only getting a younger winger prospect but picks back also, I know he f***ed up getting Schenn in the first place but still he works magic when he needs to.

This Helle deal will be no different.

 

[sipowicz]

I am comfortable with Comrie splitting starts with Brossoit to start the season. Not worried at all about the replacement goalie if Helle is moved.

Bro-swats played 1 NHL game since he left Winnipeg in 24' and his sv. % in that game was a brutal .783, he looks to be done in the NHL period!

 

[Gm0ney]

Almost looks to me like Helle's save percentage drop last season had more to do with the Jets collapse than a certain Dane leaving or Chevy signing old, slow vets (alrhough the lack of speed might have affected the system, which would have resuled in better chances and a lower save percentage)

Funny, I remember SOMEONE pointing that out (along with the PP% dropping)

I bet that goals saved above expected might correlate to point total even more than save percentage, but what do I know? I'm just the guy trying to "eliminate srats" or whatever

GSAx is interesting...overall the correlation is moderate (r=62), but over the last 7 seasons it's very strongly correlated (r=93). As goes Hellebuyck, so go the Jets... With the defense in shambles in 2019, perhaps the team relied more heavily on Hellebuyck than they previously had on goaltending up to that point?

I adjusted the scale minimum for the points (left axis) to highlight the very strong correlation there.

 

[DRW204]

GSAx is interesting...overall the correlation is moderate (r=62), but over the last 7 seasons it's very strongly correlated (r=93). As goes Hellebuyck, so go the Jets... With the defense in shambles in 2019, perhaps the team relied more heavily on Hellebuyck than they previously had on goaltending up to that point?

View attachment 1256404

I adjusted the scale minimum for the points (left axis) to highlight the very strong correlation there.

It's because league avg sv% is going down. But Helle was not.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Makes sense for us, but would Helle waive for Buffalo? is the real question.

I wouldn't say that he would waive for Buffalo. But I think he might. They are more a contender than Wpg is.

 

[Hunter368]

I think that would be in line with previous goalie deals. Late 1st, + a couple of pieces.

Nadeau is decent...2nd line triggerman if you had a playmaker out there with him (Perfetti?).

Nikishin had a lot of hype coming in to the NHL, but I don't know...is he a 3rd pairing offensive defenseman on the Jets? They'd at least feel compelled to play him since he'd be a key piece of this trade...so probably wouldn't get Heinola'd. He ain't tiny either. But 10 of his points were on the PP last year...does he see any PP in Winnipeg barring injury? Can he play defense?

Not sure if he’s good enough to make Samberg expendable via trade to fill other needs.

 

[gojetsgo]

I think that would be in line with previous goalie deals. Late 1st, + a couple of pieces.

Nadeau is decent...2nd line triggerman if you had a playmaker out there with him (Perfetti?).

Nikishin had a lot of hype coming in to the NHL, but I don't know...is he a 3rd pairing offensive defenseman on the Jets? They'd at least feel compelled to play him since he'd be a key piece of this trade...so probably wouldn't get Heinola'd. He ain't tiny either. But 10 of his points were on the PP last year...does he see any PP in Winnipeg barring injury? Can he play defense?

let's be honest he would probably be signing in the khl if he got traded to winnipeg lol

 

[Buffdog]

GSAx is interesting...overall the correlation is moderate (r=62), but over the last 7 seasons it's very strongly correlated (r=93). As goes Hellebuyck, so go the Jets... With the defense in shambles in 2019, perhaps the team relied more heavily on Hellebuyck than they previously had on goaltending up to that point?

View attachment 1256404

I adjusted the scale minimum for the points (left axis) to highlight the very strong correlation there.

Thanks for doing these graphs

The reason I brought up GSAx is becasue it seemed like when Bones came in, systems switched from more focused on shot suppression to pushing shots to the perimeter by changing the shape of the D zone structure

Because of that, it seemed to me that shot attempts might have gone up, but save percentages would have gone up as well due to the location of shots and difficulty of those saves (again, just based on my subjective observation)

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Possibly but it seems his motivation is to win a Cup and while Buffalo looked better than they have in recent years, last decade really, they aren't really a contender at this point.

Helle is all about legacy now. He's got every other award a goalie can win but a Smythe and a Cup. He's in a battle with Vasi for best of this generation but he probably needs a Smythe and a Cup to cement his claim. Realistically they are in a battle for best goalies of the entire cap era. So winning a Cup is probably the biggest thing he wants right now in life.

Sabres won 50 games last year. Finished first in the toughest Div in the league. Had 109 pts. That was all after a slow start. They won a PO rd and got the first PO experience for a lot of their players. They were 4th in the league over-all standings.

They might regress next year. But they are a young team that should be better with that year of experience. Maybe they don't rank among the top 3, but they must be in the next tier.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

we have the 8th overall pick, it's likely they know what other teams will give for the 9, also if you go for futures you are locking yourself into trading him within the week, chevy is patient, helle has 5 years, he will wait, and that isn't dreger just speculating, that is what chevy told him he is looking for

Chevy actually came straight out and said something to somebody?

 

[Xavier Laflamme]

Sabres won 50 games last year. Finished first in the toughest Div in the league. Had 109 pts. That was all after a slow start. They won a PO rd and got the first PO experience for a lot of their players. They were 4th in the league over-all standings.

They might regress next year. But they are a young team that should be better with that year of experience. Maybe they don't rank among the top 3, but they must be in the next tier.

It's still a risk I would imagine from Helle's perspective, what if he moves there and they just aren't good enough once the post season rolls around, he is now stuck in Buffalo and no closer to a cup.

FLA is the move for him, we all know it, best chances possible with a great location on top of it.

 

[gojetsgo]

Chevy actually came straight out and said something to somebody?

clearly dreger got his info from chevy lol

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Earlier I considered a three way trade with Detroit and Utah, with Larkin going to Utah..

Your deal is simpler and thus more realistic. I would ask for Bear over Nygard.

Yeah, I remember. I still think Larkin to Utah makes sense. I like MBN's size. I have nothing against small F, but I think we have enough of them. I think MBN plays a physical game. I also think he is NHL ready, or close to it.

 

[Heldig]

Maybe more realistic in the sense that you're more likely to be struck by lightning than win the Powerball.

Yeah but my gm mode idea was more like capturing lighting in a bottle while riding blindfolded on a unicycle and then selling said jar of lighting for the winning powerball ticket.

 

[Gm0ney]

let's be honest he would probably be signing in the khl if he got traded to winnipeg lol

Russia is turning into enough of a shithole that even Winnipeg might be starting to look good!

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think if Helle is highly motivated to leave then there is potential that Buffalo may move the needle if nothing else can be found. But I think his sights are pretty firmly set on Vegas or Florida right now. He has good friends on both teams, both are in the best positions to win a Cup in either conference.

Hmmmmm, Vegas.
If we traded him to Vegas I would want age to catch up to him immediately. Feck Vegas!

But what might the return look like? We would need to shop among those on their roster without trade protection. That means Carter Hart, not Adin Hill. Hart is a UFA in 1 year. If he is good next year he will be hard to sign. Add Pavel Dorofeyev, a W. Kaedan Korczak, RD. and Trevor Connelly, a LW. Brett Howden would be the best C who might be available.

Not a top tier player in the bunch. And no 1st rd picks for 2 years. I can't see anything better from Vegas.

 

[tbcwpg]

If I'm Florida, and I think that Hellebuyck only wants to he traded to Florida, I'd probably hem and haw past the draft and hope that Hellebuyck turns up the heat a bit on Jets management. It's a gamble but I can't really see Hellebuyck wanting to go elsewhere right now.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think they want him back, the issue is he wants 6 years lol. If he takes 1-2 they'd sign him tomorrow. They're exploring all options right now, just like most teams.

Do you really think they would want to tie the rest of their window to Bob after the season he just had at 38 years old? I mean, I have zero inside information, but I think that would be just crazy. Unless he signs cheaply enough that they can just bury him if he sucks, but then they still need a goalie. Where are they going to get one mid-season? Circle back to Helle if Jets are off to a bad start - but the price went up.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

To jets: helenius, power, 20OA (Preston), goalie
To Buffalo: Helle, Samberg


To jets: 9OA, Lundel, Mackie
To Florida: Helle, Yager

With 8 and 9 jets draft Rudolph & verhoef/smits. Trade for Hill.

I'd be surprised if Buffalo paid that much.

I think the Florida one is even more optimistic. Yager doesn't have near that value.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Initially I thought the same, but Helle has probably one the best contracts in the league. Gold medal winner & Vezina winner at 8.5m for 5 more years. That's a sweetheart deal that I figure justifies the return

Not even in my wildest dreams. That value is way out of whack.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think maybe Helle wants a more immediate contender

San Jose is primed to make the next step of becoming a playoff team, but I think is still 5 years away from seriously pushing for a cup

Might not be that long, depending on how they go about building a D corps. But it could be 5 years. I don't think Helle would want even a 2 year wait. He isn't getting any younger.

IF we trade Helle and that starts an exodus I would look at trading Josh to SJS. They need D and Josh is one of the best. Maybe we get Misa for Josh, or will Smith.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

My latest theory is that Buffalo has emerged as the front runner… because of Dominic Hasek

If I was Helle, that would be my preferred destination for legacy...
Hasek - possibly the greatest goalie of all time - couldn’t win a cup there but is remembered as a buffalo sabre first and foremost...
Buffalo has never won a cup - if he goes to Florida, he is the goalie that won a stanley cup after Bobrovsky won two there...
Buffalo is way more his lifestyle than Florida… and a commenter on Landing Strip last night made a point that maybe Helle’s wife wouldnt want him partying with Tkachuk every night haha

I would wager that the Florida Larkin rumours are actually Zito trying to put pressure on Chevy...

I would further wager that if Helle goes to Buffalo that Brady Tkachuk ends up there within a year

That's an interesting POV. It may be tunnelling a little too deeply into the legacy thing. But who knows?

 

[sipowicz]

The Schenn-Stan trade brought us AHL Bryson and AHL Rosen (3 goals, 0 assists in 21 games with the Jets has star written all over him) and 2nd round pick in 27'

The pick was the only value for the Jets in the trade, getting rid of Stan and Schenn priceless!

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

With Dreger reporting this then I believe Helle is in play now. Dregs doesn’t say this if TNSE isn’t comfortable with it being out. Not saying they can get a deal done but I think they are fishing now for sure. Here’s the podcast where Dregs was chatting about it if anyone wants the link.

4C???
Barron, Zhilkin, Names, Gustafsson, Ford.

Helle patient? He doesn't have time to be patient.