I like Tanev a lot, but still think it’s a very questionable signing given his age and the 6 year term. He turns 35 in a month, and has had a very injury prone career. Dropping off hard in your mid-to-late 30s is the norm for NHLers, wouldn’t be surprising at all to see this deal go south in a hurry.
I think it’s a given he’ll be bad in years 5 and 6, he’ll be 39 for the majority of year 5, 40 for the majority of year 6, basically no NHLers are worth $4.5 mil AAV at 39/40. The real question is how he does in years 3 and 4, where he’ll mostly be 37 and 38. Most guys are cooked by then, but there’s a chance he’s still worth $4.5 mil.
I think if we get 4 good years, 2 bad years, this deal is fine. But if it’s 2 good years, 4 bad years, then the deal sucks. And IMO just 2 good years is fairly likely given his age and injury history, though hopefully I’m wrong about that!