So.. Edmonton has to be the favorites coming out of the west, right?

[Volica]

Has anyone that 'won' the trade deadline... actually ever... 'won' anything?

 

[Seachd]

The purpose of hockey is to score more goals than the other team. Mark Stone pretty clearly helps his teams out-score the opposition to a larger degree than Connor McDavid does. Why can’t Stone be better?

Jimmy Howard has prevented 618 goals this season. I'm guessing that's a lot better than Mark Stone's points for + prevented goals? I guess we know who's "better".

 

[Arthur Morgan]

Blues aside who get that title due to being the recent champs I guess, but Edmonton looks legit now, and I think there are a few factors.

- Weak pacific division means in theory, they should have one of the easiest 1st and maybe 2nd rounds out of the entire league aside from whoever facing the 3rd spot in the Atlantic.

- Draisatl has come alive and is legit. Yammo has fit like a glove with him, and they have two legit superstars better than any two currently playing (yes better than Sido and Geno in their current form).

- McDavid is back and healthy and finally has wingers. This is the first time the Oilers have a legit top 6 in a decade.

- 1st PP in the league and 2nd best PK. In general, being top 5 in both is an indicator of playoff success.

- Then you look at what Draisatl produces the last time they made the playoffs, and realize McDavid is in his prime now.

I'm not sure there is a team out west that can stop the Oilers. Have to imagine that they should be a lock for at least the WCF, and if they do not make the finals, it will be in a hard fought series deep in the playoffs.

I personally, don't think there is a better team out west and they are likely one of the favorites if they played in the east. Maybe they are only stopped by a more experienced team from the east if they make the finals like Tampa or the Pens.

I would still put Colorado ahead of u guys even after they basically did nothing.
I swear at the start of the season the plan for the Oilers was to just get back into playoff's again. now they are the favorite in the West? That changed quickly

 

[I am toxic]

Has anyone that 'won' the trade deadline... actually ever... 'won' anything?

LAK acquiring Gaborik at the 2014 TDL - 14G/8A in the playoffs on the way to the Cup.

 

[North Cole]

I guess I need a senior member with 18 years of experience on the forum, such as yourself, to explain to me why it’s not a good idea to out-score the other team.

So, based on the entirety of this thread and your comments I assume you're ready to say you were wrong here: (out-scoring the other team is all that matters)

John Carlson Doesn't Belong With The Class of Elite Defensemen.

When you started creating stats to say he was not elite...He seems to be heavily outscoring opponents this season. Or is his defensive inferiority to guys like Pietrangelo erase the 20+ lead he has on them in point generation?

Forwards are there to score points, Ottawa also had Erik Karlsson playing like a monster 2/3 of those years your talking about. At some point, having 40 points more on the aggregate has to be worth more than being Defensively superior. This is more true when you consider a forwards primary job is to generate points.

If both players are reasonably near each other in scoring differentials, but one is significantly higher in points and chance generation, I'm taking that player. There seems to be a lot of context missing as to why a player with 30-40 more points has an even differential, other than - this guy sux defensively and cheats 24/7...

At the end of the day, it's difficult to reconcile Stone is better because the defensive part of a forwards game is totally overblown by the stats community. No different with Couturier. McDavid is significantly better at offense, generating chances, high danger, expected stats, etc from 2016-17 to 2018-19.

At all strengths, McDavid has better Ind-relative, per 60 statistics than stone in CF, CA, HDCF/CA, rush attempts, rebound creation, less PIM, more penalties drawn, less giveaways, stone has more takeaways, mcdavid much more points per 60, slightly more secondary - much more primary. It goes on, and I choose rate stats because McDavid has 1000 more TOI over the last three years, so one cant use the aggregate time on ice excuse

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

So by extension anyone who has a better +/- than McDavid is a better player than him?

Yikes.

No, definitely not.

But when a guy has a better 5-on-5 goal differential, shot differential, expected goal differential, etc on a terrible Senators team, and every contextual adjustment that we make suggests that his individual impact is far superior, then he’s probably the better player, and probably helps his team out-score the other team to a larger degree.

It's not a fallacy just because you say it is. Watch the games. What's the name of the fallacy that ignores the obvious evidence in order to provide a hot take just to be different?

No, argument ad populum is a fallacy because it implies that the majority opinion cannot be wrong. It has been proven countless times that majority opinion gets things wrong.

I watch plenty of the Oilers duo and I probably watch more of Stone than you do. I’ve posted video evidence of why I believe Stone is the better player in addition to statistical evidence and nobody has constructed a counter-argument.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Vegas, St.Louis and the Avs are all better. I'd argue Dallas is too. But, crazier things have happened than the 4th or 5th "best" team going far.

 

[HugginThePost]

That's the best part about Stone... he's never been on the ice for a goal against. Or so I would take it from this thread.

Let's not turn this into Stone is no good......we both know the Flames and the Oilers would kill to have a player of his ilk on their team!!!

 

[Sempiternal]

I think they'll make most teams in the West nervous to face them in the playoffs. In a tight checking game, they have the difference makers to win a few they probably shouldn't.

That being said, I'm happy with the Oilers taking on the role of underdogs in the playoffs.

 

[Sempiternal]

Has anyone that 'won' the trade deadline... actually ever... 'won' anything?

The Hurricanes won the Trade Deadline, so let's hope you're right. "We don't need a bunch of Jerks hoisting the Stanley Cup", says Don Cherry.

 

[GeeoffBrown]

Whistles get put away in the playoffs. Can't rely on the power play.

 

[Sempiternal]

Maybe 3rd or 4th best in the west , not even top team in their division

Hey, we'll take it! Anything can happen in the playoffs and we'll just be grateful to make it.

 

[onetweasy]

I do not think you will have many Oiler fans agreeing with this.

As an Oiler fan, I like what they did but if we actually got into the playoffs I feel like we would be a dark horse team that could potentially upset the Blues/Avs/Knights......definitely not a favorite.

 

[Sempiternal]

Whistles get put away in the playoffs. Can't rely on the power play.

Oilers can play dirty... and get many 'on the rush' chances with the NOS Boosters in Connor McDavid's skates.

 

[Gargyn]

Haven’t read through the thread but not going far with that goaltending. Best 2 players in the league but you need goaltending come playoffs against teams like the Blues and Avs.

 

[GOilers88]

The purpose of hockey is to score more goals than the other team. Mark Stone pretty clearly helps his teams out-score the opposition to a larger degree than Connor McDavid does. Why can’t Stone be better?

So McD has 456 points in 343 GP.
Stone has 385 points in 448GP.

Where you lose me is when you try to say that the guy who has scored less points helps his team outscore the opponent more than the guy who has scored more points overall for his team.

Confusing? I know right.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

So, based on the entirety of this thread and your comments I assume you're ready to say you were wrong here: (out-scoring the other team is all that matters)

John Carlson Doesn't Belong With The Class of Elite Defensemen.

When you started creating stats to say he was not elite...He seems to be heavily outscoring opponents this season. Or is his defensive inferiority to guys like Pietrangelo erase the 20+ lead he has on them in point generation?

Forwards are there to score points, Ottawa also had Erik Karlsson playing like a monster 2/3 of those years your talking about. At some point, having 40 points more on the aggregate has to be worth more than being Defensively superior. This is more true when you consider a forwards primary job is to generate points.

If both players are reasonably near each other in scoring differentials, but one is significantly higher in points and chance generation, I'm taking that player. There seems to be a lot of context missing as to why a player with 30-40 more points has an even differential, other than - this guy sux defensively and cheats 24/7...

At the end of the day, it's difficult to reconcile Stone is better because the defensive part of a forwards game is totally overblown by the stats community. No different with Couturier. McDavid is significantly better at offense, generating chances, high danger, expected stats, etc from 2016-17 to 2018-19.

At all strengths, McDavid has better Ind-relative, per 60 statistics than stone in CF, CA, HDCF/CA, rush attempts, rebound creation, less PIM, more penalties drawn, less giveaways, stone has more takeaways, mcdavid much more points per 60, slightly more secondary - much more primary. It goes on, and I choose rate stats because McDavid has 1000 more TOI over the last three years, so one cant use the aggregate time on ice excuse

Carlson is benefitting from fairly strong on-ice goaltending this season and his goal-based impacts still don’t stack up to other top defensemen. His defensive inferiority to guys like Pietrangelo absolutely does erase the gap in their raw points and then some. Now, back on-topic...

Forwards are not just “there to score points”. Hockey is an extremely dynamic game, and forwards and defensemen all play as a unit of 5. Every player on the ice at all times is there to help their team out-score the opposition.

Over the past couple of seasons, these players aren’t reasonably near each other in their impact on scoring differentials when you adjust for their context.

Have you ever considered that it’s not the stats community who has overblown the importance of defensive play for forwards, but rather the “raw bointz and eye test!” community that has understated the importance of defensive play for forwards, given that points don’t account for defense, and that people’s eye tests generally let them see whatever they want to?

The differentials at all strengths are utterly meaningless because the TOI distribution between these players in terms of PP, PK, and EV are not remotely even. You could literally put me out there exclusively for 5-on-3 and I’d have better all situations differentials than any of them...that’s why you compare apples to apples.

 

[TrueTT]

The Oilers are my new #2 bandwagon (I lost a bet). This is a stupid thread.

The team's ceiling is the 2nd round as currently constructed. Unless Athanasiou breaks out, the team still only has 4 top 6 forwards - even if two of them are top-5 players in all of hockey - and guys like Bear and Jones still need to take another step forward on the blue line seeing as the Oilers don't have a legit top-pairing defenseman and rely more on a committee approach. And I LOVE Klefbom. He is what he is - a #3 on a contender.

Neither Smith nor Koskinen are #1 goalies. However, the last 4 Stanley Cup championships have shown that a hot goalie catching lightning in a bottle seems to be the recipe nowadays......the days of goalies playing 60+ games and then carrying the load in the playoffs to win a ring is long gone.

It's likely going to be St.Louis/Colorado vs Vegas in the conference finals. I take the Central Division to come out of the West.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

So McD has 456 points in 343 GP.
Stone has 385 points in 448GP.

Where you lose me is when you try to say that the guy who has scored less points helps his team outscore the opponent more than the guy who has scored more points overall for his team.

Confusing? I know right.

I am not comparing them at the career level, where McDavid has been much better. I am comparing them right now.

Since you’re confused, let me try to help you. This “points” stat...it doesn’t measure defense. At all. Out-scoring the other team is influenced by offense...and defense. Comparing these players solely by their offense is like comparing one team’s home record to another team’s road record. You are missing half of the equation and it’s the less flattering half.

 

[onetweasy]

Haven’t read through the thread but not going far with that goaltending. Best 2 players in the league but you need goaltending come playoffs against teams like the Blues and Avs.

Coles notes: it was started by a troll to have people shit on the Oilers and serve as a long play jinx thread and then old Joe Thornton's Cock decided to bless us with hot takes claiming that Stone is better than McDavid.....

I hate myself for even posting something in this thread but work is really boring right now.

 

[GeeoffBrown]

Oilers can play dirty... and get many 'on the rush' chances with the NOS Boosters in Connor McDavid's skates.

Oilers have one of the best PP% ever. You don't think it's important for the Oilers to get Power Plays in order to win games?

 

[Gargyn]

Blues vs Avs
Knights vs Oilers
Caps vs Pens
Bruins vs Bolts

Avs/Knights
Pens/Bruins

Avs/Bruins

Avs

 

[Bounces R Way]

Wrong.

I'm actually more convinced they've taken a step forward than I was in 2016-17 but they live and die on special teams. 5v5 they're not in the top half of the league in most categories. They made some depth acquisitions though so maybe that'll help. They still don't have an all situations 1D and in a playoff series that's a big hole.

 

[Critical I]

No, definitely not.

But when a guy has a better 5-on-5 goal differential, shot differential, expected goal differential, etc on a terrible Senators team, and every contextual adjustment that we make suggests that his individual impact is far superior, then he’s probably the better player, and probably helps his team out-score the other team to a larger degree.



No, argument ad populum is a fallacy because it implies that the majority opinion cannot be wrong. It has been proven countless times that majority opinion gets things wrong.

I watch plenty of the Oilers duo and I probably watch more of Stone than you do. I’ve posted video evidence of why I believe Stone is the better player in addition to statistical evidence and nobody has constructed a counter-argument.

Years ago an HF Oiler fan pulled out every stat imaginable in an attempt to argue that Shawn Horcoff was a superior player to Sydney Crosby.

His reputation died in that thread.

RIP @JoeThorntonsRooster credibility.

 

[John Eichel da GOAT]

Whistles get put away in the playoffs. Can't rely on the power play.

Bingo! 13 pages in and finally the answer.