GDT: SJ Sharks at Ottawa Senators - 4PM EST - TSN5 / RDS2 - The Empire Scores Back - Episode V
- Thread starter AchtzehnBaby
- Start date
Didn't see the game and was surprised to see Sanderson had no points, but then on the highlights I think he was the first pass on at least three of the goals, so at least he contributed.
Sens of Anarchy
Registered User
- Jul 9, 2013
- 67,142
- 52,862
Xspyrit
DJ Dorion
It has very little to do with Corsi... Players who are good in expected goals metrics tend to be good and obtain good results over a long period of time. It doesn't tell that much when it's a small sample size but the bigger the sample is, the bigger the telling will be. I have no control over you "believing" in it or not, you do whatever you want, many people and NHL teams sure look at it to predict eventual outcome.
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DylanSensFan
BEESHIP: NBH
What really matters is what actually happened. Not what might have happened or could have happened based on advanced stats. Based on advanced stats, we were a top 16 team last year in several stats commonly cited on the board. Did that get us an invite to the playoffs ?
Post the actual goals against at 5 on 5 for
Tkachuk
Norris
Stuetzle
Batherson
Giroux
Tarasenko
Then explain how he's the worst of the crew
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Xspyrit
DJ Dorion
Last season, Ottawa had a pretty good xGF% overall because they had the highest xGF on the PP (and 2nd actual GF), the PP was deadly. At ES though, even though they had an above average xGF%, their GF% was quite lower, which is a combination of poor chance conversion and those "gift wrapped" goals I am talking about which dramatically lowers the goalies SV% (who also weren't very good last season)
They finished 21st in P% in the standings. This is why the current season was promising because you would have expected that they built on those good metrics, plus adding Norris, Chychrun and Greig... but it backfired and the team has actually been worse.
Regarding Tarasenko, I have already explained so I am not going to explain the same thing over and over, it's your responsibility to get the proper understanding or just denyit/refuse to "believe" in it, I don't really care, you do what you want. But I'll add one last thing. Among Blues forwards in 2022-23, Tarasenko had the worst xGFA/60 and the 2nd highest ACTUAL GA/60... Sometimes "it doesn't go your way" like it has for him this season. It tends to balance out over time. I have no control over you understand this or not
Micklebot
Moderator
- Apr 27, 2010
- 56,709
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A couple potential explanations that come to mind,
Tarasenko has the lowest TOI% qoc and QOC rel CF% among that group. Batherson is second lowest, and happens to have the second best GA/60
Tarasenko is a bit above average in OZ starts in that group, him and Stü are close, Bath is way above average
We're also dealing with a relatively small sample for goal based metrics, looking at some other stats like scoring chances data has him on the other side of the spectrum.
If you look at Talbot's first 15 games this year vs his next to get an idea of the kind of variance you can see in 500 mins chunks of on ice sv%, he had a 5v5 sv% of .9264 with a GA/60 of 2.07, the next 14 he's down to .9132 with GA/60 of 2.42, he faces about 6 fewer shots per 60 than Tarasenko, so that dip in save% would have a more significant impact on GA/60,
Tarasenko is currently riding an on ice sv% of .930 at 5v5, that's not unheard of, he did that in StL more than a few times, however his GA/60 rel is twice as good as his previous career best, he's got career worst SCA/60 and HDCA/60 while somehow managing a better GA/60 than three of the previous 5 seasons and the two outliers he only played 10 games and 24 games in. I'd lean towards at least a significant chunk of his Low GA/60 being a sample size issue.
Back out the two 3 on 3 ot goals he was on for. That's clearly not how one judges the ability to play defensive hockey. The stats change a bit don't they? D'oh! You didn't think of that.
We're almost 1/2 season
Personally I'd put it on playing a lot with Greig. They played together prior to Grieg's injury and weren't on the ice for a goal against
Xspyrit
DJ Dorion
What I tought though is that it's almost impossible to explain/demonstrate anything to you. You made up your mind : aight, do as you wish. I'll continue to look at expected goals lol
Yes it's easier for Tarasenko when he is on a line with Greig since he is our smartest 2-way forward with Giroux. It brings down Tarasenko's expected goals against a lot when playing with him. And since we're still dealing with a relatively small sample size and they haven't given up a GA in 66+ minutes, it has a big effect on his GA/60
But if you take for example with Stutzle and Batherson, xGA : 8 and GA : 8 as well...
I like Tank and think he fits the bill for a top 6 forward with general veteran experience to go along with playoff and championship experience. That and star experience as well.
If the speculation is true that his family loves it in Ottawa, it’s a good bet that he’ll be open to stay.
Yes we need some bottom six guys with motors and Jam, but I also think we need a few top six vets who can also bring that experience and stability to the young stars.
He’s a guy that I have always advocated for keeping if they can make the dollars and terms work.
If the speculation is true that his family loves it in Ottawa, it’s a good bet that he’ll be open to stay.
Yes we need some bottom six guys with motors and Jam, but I also think we need a few top six vets who can also bring that experience and stability to the young stars.
He’s a guy that I have always advocated for keeping if they can make the dollars and terms work.
The stats you're quoting aren't correct and they change when looking at 5 on 5.
You didn't even bother to look up what i pointed out to you.
I had you on ignore for over a year. You're going back. I can't tell if you just don't make any sense or you're intellectually dishonest. I'm leaning towards the former but either way you're going on ignore
Xspyrit
DJ Dorion
lol of course, I look at ES
I don't make any sense/intellectually dishonest even though what I post is 90% factual. Like if it was my fault if you can't grasp/accept the expected goals concept
You're annoyed because you can't force me to discredit advanced stats. Advanced stats or not, everyone knows Tarasenko isn't good defensively
So go ahead and put me on ignore so I won't have to waste my time replying to your useless posts
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You're not intellectually dishonest? Ok then. I've got two to options left. You don't take the time to try to understand what you're reading or you do but don't get it.
In your post 609 above, you made a statement about Tarasenko. What i told you is that if you look at 5 on 5 data, your statement is not true. What makes your statement true is "all situations" which in tarasenko's case includes 2 goals against in 9 minutes of 3 on 3 ot. 2 goals in 9 minutes of 3 on 3 changes the data when looking at xGA. I suspect you didn't even try to understand what is being communicated to you.
I might not be a beer league goalie from my Montreal but i did stay at a holiday inn last night and i do interpret data for a living.
The content below is culled from a "locked on Sens" tweet. It's based on 100 minutes together as a line. And then you've got the Greig Tarasenko data where they never gave up a goal 5 on 5 prior to Greig's injury. Pay particular attention to the fewest goals against per 60, on a line with Batherson no less
Fewest Goals Against…
F— 8, Tkachuk-Norris-Giroux (T-62nd)
D— 4, Chychrun-Sanderson (T-19th)
Fewest Goals Against Per 60…
F— 3.13, Tarasenko-Stützle-Batherson (93rd)
D— 1.97 - Brannstrom-Hamonic (53rd)
Most Goals Against…
F— 8, Tkachuk-Norris-Giroux (41st)
D— 13, Sanderson-Zub (48th)
Most Goals Against Per 60…
F— 3.97, Tkachuk-Stützle-Giroux (7th)
D— 5.54, Chabot-Chychrun (1st)
Xspyrit
DJ Dorion
You're not intellectually dishonest? Ok then. I've got two to options left. You don't take the time to try to understand what you're reading or you do but don't get it.
In your post 609 above, you made a statement about Tarasenko. What i told you is that if you look at 5 on 5 data, your statement is not true. What makes your statement true is "all situations" which in tarasenko's case includes 2 goals against in 9 minutes of 3 on 3 ot. 2 goals in 9 minutes of 3 on 3 changes the data when looking at xGA. I suspect you didn't even try to understand what is being communicated to you.
I might not be a beer league goalie from my Montreal but i did stay at a holiday inn last night and i do interpret data for a living.
is your data telling you how pathetic you are though?I told you I look at EV minutes, it doesn't change anything, Tarasenko is still BAD defensively based on YEARS of data. He also was bad on the 2022-23 Blues (post #609) even if you just look 5 on 5. And I was not looking at "all situations" but "Even Strength"... I understand this is getting a little bit over your head, even for a super data guy.
2020-21 to 2022-23, among all 417 forwards 5 on 5 (at least 1000 mins), Tarasenko ranks :
- 411th in xGA/60
- 344th in GA/60 (36th highest PDO though)
Is the data guy getting owned by the "beer league goalie from my Montreal"?
Are you finally going to put my on ignore or continue to harass me for such a stupid little crusade?
Do you even realize only 3 Sens lines have played more than 100 mins 5 on 5 so far this season?
So this line ranks 93rd out of 116 lines in the whole NHL... Give Tarasenko the Selke already!
Not only that but very small sample size. I just show you 3 full seasons of data above.
This is what you initially posted
I told you I look at EV minutes, it doesn't change anything, Tarasenko is still BAD defensively based on YEARS of data. He also was bad on the 2022-23 Blues (post #609) even if you just look 5 on 5. And I was not looking at "all situations" but "Even Strength"... I understand this is getting a little bit over your head, even for a super data guy.
2020-21 to 2022-23, among all 417 forwards 5 on 5 (at least 1000 mins), Tarasenko ranks :
- 411th in xGA/60
- 344th in GA/60 (36th highest PDO though)
Is the data guy getting owned by the "beer league goalie from my Montreal"?
Are you finally going to put my on ignore or continue to harass me for such a stupid little crusade?
Do you even realize only 3 Sens lines have played more than 100 mins 5 on 5 so far this season?
So this line ranks 93rd out of 116 lines in the whole NHL... Give Tarasenko the Selke already!
Not only that but very small sample size. I just show you 3 full seasons of data above.
Among Blues forwards in 2022-23, Tarasenko had the worst xGFA/60 and the 2nd highest ACTUAL GA/60...
And i told you that was only accurate if you look at all situations and that if you back out the OT goals against the data is different.
After that, you just started throwing insults, ironically about my inability to interpret data when it was you posted something that really wasn't a valid interpretation
Anyway you carry on. Sorry to have commented on one of your posts.
Xspyrit
DJ Dorion
The classic aggressor playing the victim... It's actually easy to go back to the start of the conversation you know that? We actually exchanged several posts and everything was totally normal until you came up with :
"I had you on ignore for over a year. You're going back. I can't tell if you just don't make any sense or you're intellectually dishonest. I'm leaning towards the former but either way you're going on ignore"
then
"I might not be a beer league goalie from my Montreal but i did stay at a holiday inn last night and i do interpret data for a living.
"But of course I am the one "throwing insults"
The classic aggressor playing the victim... It's actually easy to go back to the start of the conversation you know that? We actually exchanged several posts and everything was totally normal until you came up with :
"I had you on ignore for over a year. You're going back. I can't tell if you just don't make any sense or you're intellectually dishonest. I'm leaning towards the former but either way you're going on ignore"
then
"I might not be a beer league goalie from my Montreal but i did stay at a holiday inn last night and i do interpret data for a living.
But of course I am the one "throwing insults"
Look, i don't know if it's cultural with you or perhaps you just miss the subtlety of language because English isn't your first language
You were rude and aggressive in multiple posts before i mentioned having you on ignore. If you don't realize that, i can't help you. I'm not an esl teacher. But do please note that i skipped over your aggressive tone on multiple occasions before responding in kind.
You were also wrong in your initial post about Tarasenko when you included ot goals against. One simply wouldn't analyze defensive proficiency in hockey by including goals against in 3 on 3 ot because it is not really like "hockey". I politely tried to explain that to you, but my sense is you're so convinced you're correct in what you see that examining alternatives is something you perceive as a waste of time. You doubled down on your initial content
You carry on doing you. And I'll go back to having you on ignore
@Xspyrit
Why do you think nhl teams pay big money for access to data?
Is the data that you or i can access all an nhl team needs? Or is there a reason teams pay big money for sportlogiq data?
The flaw in xGA / xGF is so obvious. They're surely not analyzing player ability using something that flawed.
Why do you think nhl teams pay big money for access to data?
Is the data that you or i can access all an nhl team needs? Or is there a reason teams pay big money for sportlogiq data?
The flaw in xGA / xGF is so obvious. They're surely not analyzing player ability using something that flawed.
