Speculation: Sir Sam of House Bennett - contract speculation

[SirSamofHouseBennett]

first off I’m very happy to break in the new screen name and avatar.

Does the Verhage contract put a cap on what FLA will pay Bennett?

Surely he can’t ask for more than 7m.

Who are the comparable though?
What’s your prediction and can FLA afford it?

Very interesting player. Doesn’t score a lot of points but is certainly a catalyst roster piece.

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[CanadienShark]

I feel like his ask is going to be over $7m and the Panthers won't keep him. He'll then sign with a rebuilding team that vastly overpays him.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I'd pay him 7M in a heartbeat. Dude is an incredible all around center built for the playoffs.

 

[SirSamofHouseBennett]

I'd pay him 7M in a heartbeat. Dude is an incredible all around center built for the playoffs.

I think so too but I’m wondering what the consensus is and who people see as a comparable.

I think he is like JT Miller or Gabe Landeskog but without the production.

Anyone else come to mind?

 

[CDJ]

first off I’m very happy to break in the new screen name and avatar.

Does the Verhage contract put a cap on what FLA will pay Bennett?

Surely he can’t ask for more than 7m.

Who are the comparable though?
What’s your prediction and can FLA afford it?

Very interesting player. Doesn’t score a lot of points but is certainly a catalyst roster piece.

I think he’s getting more than 7

 

[CanadianHawks]

The Chandler Stephenson contract is a comparable

 

[SirSamofHouseBennett]

I think he’s getting more than 7

But not in FLA? Can he make more than CV on the same roster?

 

[JoeSakic13]

I bet he walks.

They have to re-up Ekblad and I can’t imagine he’s taking a team friendly deal at 28.

8x6 on the open market.

 

[SirSamofHouseBennett]

The Chandler Stephenson contract is a comparable

That’s a good one and I like Benny a lot more as a player.

I think he commands more than 7m but curious if he has to leave FLA to get it.

 

[CDJ]

But not in FLA? Can he make more than CV on the same roster?

I honestly think he is the soul of the team, i wouldn’t blink at anything under 7.5

Signing with a young team with a bunch of cap space for a lot of money is probably what ends up happening. Especially if he has a 3rd great playoff run in a row (that scumbag)

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I think so too but I’m wondering what the consensus is and who people see as a comparable.

I think he is like JT Miller or Gabe Landeskog but without the production.

Anyone else come to mind?

He's averaged a ~60 point pace as a Panther while playing in a secondary scoring role. He's an elite all situations 1B/2A center who can literally do it all for a team looking to contend.
As mentioned, Stephenson is probably a good comparable. Hischier contract is probably pretty close too.

 

[CDJ]

He's averaged a ~60 point pace as a Panther while playing in a secondary scoring role. He's an elite all situations 1B/2A center who can literally do it all for a team looking to contend.
As mentioned, Stephenson is probably a good comparable. Hischier contract is probably pretty close too.

Brings a nastiness few top 6 guys possess too- rare commodities usually get overpaid on the market

 

[SirSamofHouseBennett]

He is such a stud

So have we come up with a consensus # though?

 

[Mogo]

I bet he walks.

They have to re-up Ekblad and I can’t imagine he’s taking a team friendly deal at 28.

8x6 on the open market.

Ek will take what Zito gives him plus pizza party

 

[JoeSakic13]

Ek will take what Zito gives him plus pizza party

Alfredo’s Pizza Café or Pizza by Alfredo?

 

[Sota Popinski]

I bet he walks.

They have to re-up Ekblad and I can’t imagine he’s taking a team friendly deal at 28.

8x6 on the open market.

I think they let ekblad walk before Bennett

 

[Hattrick Kane]

I bet he walks.

They have to re-up Ekblad and I can’t imagine he’s taking a team friendly deal at 28.

8x6 on the open market.

If Florida is smart, they’ll let him walk. A guy likely wanting 8 million for max term, constantly injured and already slow as molasses, that’ll screw the Panthers.

See Brent Seabrook.

 

[Some Other Flame]

Back to Calgary for 7yrsx8M

Seriously though, he likely reups with the Panthers at around 6.5-7M for 8 years

 

[Necrobutcher]

A fantastic player but i think they'll let him walk. Lundell's ready to be a 2C.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

I could see him taking a discount with the Panthers considering if he took a pay cut he'd be getting more money after taxes.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Brings a nastiness few top 6 guys possess too- rare commodities usually get overpaid on the market

Yep. He's an old school guy who can play the game any way you want. Excellent in all three zones. Great puck carrier and distributor while being one of the hardest hitting players in the game AND being one of the best pound for pound fighters around. That's an extremely rare combination. He's also excellent at getting pucks go the net and creating space for his teammates.

There's a reason both Huberdeau and Tkachuk had their career years playing on Bennett's wing - his ability to transport the puck through the neutral zone and create havoc in the offensive zone is exactly what heavy footed scoring wingers need.

There really aren't very many top 6 centers like him in the league.

Over the last 3 years, there have been 5 players who have paced for an average of 50+ points, 175+ hits, and 225+ shots, and only one of them was a center:

Player	Position	GP	Points/82 game pace	Shots/82 game pace	Hits/82 game pace
Alex Ovechkin	L	229	82	322	182
Andrei Svechnikov	R	201	72	244	192
Brady Tkachuk	L	242	76	336	273
Evander Kane	L	161	57	264	259
Sam Bennett	C	203	53	244	179

That's 4 of the top power wingers in the league, and then Sam Bennett.

Same story at 5v5, only 3 guys average 9+ shots and hits/60 while putting up 1.80+ p/60:

Player	Position	GP	Points/60	Shots/60	Hits/60
Brady Tkachuk	L	242	2.33	11.4	13.2
Sam Bennett	C	203	1.90	9.8	9.1
Evander Kane	L	161	1.88	10.5	12.2

This also highlights how much of a unicorn Brady Tkachuk is among wingers - there's a reason his contract far exceeded what his raw point totals would have suggested. Signed an $8.2M AAV despite pacing for 53 points in his contract year.

Sam Bennett is similarly a unicorn among centers, and has averaged a 33 goal 61 point pace during the team's last two very successful playoff runs (with a higher 5v5 p/60 than Barkov). His playoffs hits/60 nearly doubled from 9.1 in the regular season to 17.1 in those 2 runs, which again shows his value in the playoffs.

Lindholm is probably the best, most recent comparison - they'll be the same age at the time of signing, and they are both versatile, well rounded all situations centers who are good but not elite offensively, but they've proven they're capable of centering a top team's #1 scoring line. Lindholm paced for 16 goal 48 points in his contract year, pretty far below the 27g 56p pace Bennett has averaged as a Panther.

Other recent examples that make sense are Hertl, Couturier, Kadri, Horvat, and Cirelli.

Player	AAV	Inflation adjusted (assume 3.0% annual)
Horvat	$8.5M	$9.02M
Hertl	$8.14M	$8.89M
Lindholm	$7.75M	$7.98M
Couturier	$7.75M	$8.47M
Kadri	$7M	$7.65M
Cirelli	$6.25M	$6.63M
Average	$7.57M	$8.11M

When you factor in his physicality and the way he elevates his game during the playoffs, I think Bennett's agent should be asking for $8M+ on a long term deal. If Panthers can get him for anything less $7.5M I think that's a discount vs what the market would offer, especially considering what we just saw Lindholm sign for.