Since 2008 only 4 goalies who have won the cup were a net negative to their team

[Bjornar Moxnes]

They should also break out number of positive games versus number of negative games. 2 or 3 stinkers on in an otherwise solid run could show something.

Crawford for sure fits the bill. Had a horrible game 1 and 2 against Nashville but overall played well in 2015.

 

[Machinehead]

It's 1 goal in 20 games below expected. It's the difference between Blues losing game 3 of the finals 6-2 or 7-2. It's consensus that Binnington was great in those PO. But sure you want to throw around blanket statements removing any possible nuance based on the slimmest possible margin, a line drawn in the sand, because it serves your narrative.

Frankly, I don't even know your narrative or why you were tagged. But your take on the usage of these stats is just.. desperate, for lack of a better term.

No, read the graphic. That's per game.

Sure, but so do garbage forwards and garbage d-men. What makes that less noticeable is that there are more of them. Letang went down and the Pens STILL won the cup.

I don't know... I'd still rather want to be secure in net if it doesn't HURT my chances. The Bruins wouldn't have won without Thomas. I know you said it's not because great goalies don't win, but that garbage goalies can win. The problem is that terrible goaltending can absolutely SINK a team as well.

It's not just that they can. They often do. There's more average to bad goalies on that list than great ones.

Obviously good goaltending is (mostly) essential. Even if four goalies on that list had bad tournaments, 75% is still where you want to be when building a team. And you're right, bad goaltending can sink a team.

The thing is, Hall of Fame goaltenders can shit the bed, and absolute jokes like Murray can go on a run. Adin Hill was a 4th stringer last year.

The performance of a goalie in a series or a tournament is almost random compared to their overall large-sample performance. Way, way more random than for forwards or defensemen.

Tim Thomas never got in, so assuming Quick and Vasi do, there's three Hall of Fame goalies who won the Cup in the last 16 years (and one of them will be Marc-Andre Fleury, digest that how you will). List the Cup winners whose best forward isn't a Hall of Famer. It's going to be a tiny list.

 

[catnip]

Maybe one of those four examples is actually meaningful (just based on averages, without any further context). The rest are just average goaltending. This seems to suggest that you rarely win with shit goaltending but I think we kind of knew that already.

 

[acor]

While all those goalies had a great run, list of greatest goalies of generation woiuld look somehow different. You don' need a great goalie, you need hot one.

Still, the best strategy is ignoring goalie position, construct great team instead, and pray that whatever bum you put between pipes will discover his inner Roy at right time (which, with great team in front of him, has a pretty good chance of happening at least once in a decade).

 

[CashMash]

No, read the graphic. That's per game.

It's not just that they can. They often do. There's more average to bad goalies on that list than great ones.

Obviously good goaltending is (mostly) essential. Even if four goalies on that list had bad tournaments, 75% is still where you want to be when building a team. And you're right, bad goaltending can sink a team.

The thing is, Hall of Fame goaltenders can shit the bed, and absolute jokes like Murray can go on a run. Adin Hill was a 4th stringer last year.

The performance of a goalie in a series or a tournament is almost random compared to their overall large-sample performance. Way, way more random than for forwards or defensemen.

Tim Thomas never got in, so assuming Quick and Vasi do, there's three Hall of Fame goalies who won the Cup in the last 16 years (and one of them will be Marc-Andre Fleury, digest that how you will). List the Cup winners whose best forward isn't a Hall of Famer. It's going to be a tiny list.

I understand your point now. There's still something about a great goalie for me, though.
Also, one final thing is that the average to bad part I bolded is kind of subjective.

If we go through the list I'd classify them as follows:
- Osgood - Average.
- MAF - Hmm... Tricky, tricky, but we will put him in average.
- Nemo - Bad.
- TT - Elite. Deserving of the HHOF based purely on play, but...
- Quick - Great goalie for my money.
- Crawford - Underrated early in his career, I would say... I remember some saying the Blackhawks were a questionmark in goal. I'd go with good to great.
- Murray - Average... BUT... wasn't there hip issues he dealt with? Would he always have developed this way? Early in his career, he looked like the second coming.
- Holtby - I'd say was good up until a few years ago. His play was actually sub-par for him during the regular season and I remember thinking he was done.
- Binnington - Definitely average.
- Vasi - Elite.
- Kuemper - bad.
- Hill - Young career. Don't know what to make of him, really.

So... Out of 16 runs, I'd put 4 in the definitely average to bad category, 5 in the debatable category, and 7 in the definitely above average category. Your mileage may vary, of course.

 

[57special]

Binnington and Niemi surprise me.
Niemi being a fairly clear net-positive on goals saved above expected, while Binnington being a slight negative makes me feel like I experienced alternative realities during those playoffs.

Binnington sure was good against the Wild that year. Kuemper not a surprise.

 

[Avs2022]

Keep in mind Kuemper was top five in the regular season in both sv% and gsaX and suffered an eye injury in the first round of the playoffs that caused him to miss time.

His overall playoff numbers were not good, but let's not act like he was a scrub either.

Not to mention that 2022 Avs team was an incredibly well oiled machine. Of the 4 game they lost, they were really only outplayed in 2 of them.

 

[drktmplr12]

Since Hill was so good, I guess Vegas wasn't a very good team

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Since Hill was so good, I guess Vegas wasn't a very good team

I mean rhey were clearly the best team of the playoffs that year. But there's absolutely a valid argument that if they stuck to brossoit, Oilers might have beaten them.

 

[Rebels57]

Binnington and Niemi surprise me.
Niemi being a fairly clear net-positive on goals saved above expected, while Binnington being a slight negative makes me feel like I experienced alternative realities during those playoffs.

Yeah I don't get that at all. Niemi was pretty awful in the Finals that year. Had the Flyers had competent goaltending they win that Cup, but their goaltending was even worse with Leighton and an injured Boucher.

 

[Grifter3511]

While all those goalies had a great run, list of greatest goalies of generation woiuld look somehow different. You don' need a great goalie, you need hot one.

Still, the best strategy is ignoring goalie position, construct great team instead, and pray that whatever bum you put between pipes will discover his inner Roy at right time (which, with great team in front of him, has a pretty good chance of happening at least once in a decade).

This is the Carolina way.

 

[blundluntman]

Part of it is likely that he only started in 14 games, Brossoit had the other 8.

Ah that would make sense. He won 11 games so I figured he'd played more but only having 16 games does hurt the case a bit

 

[McGarnagle]

With Thomas, he was absolutely lights out elite, but some of the games that run that he did lose (particularly against Montreal and Tampa) he was so bad that it skews the overall stats.

As for Binnington, he looked like a rebound machine that finals. Rask thoroughly outplayed him 6 of the 7 games, but the one bad game Rask had and the best game Binnington had happened to be the one game that mattered

 

[JianYang]

These stats are subjective, but there's multiple names on that board who aren't considered to be great goalies.

But what ive been saying for years is that all you need is for your goalie to peak at the right time, and if you are really good team, you just need your goalie to not lose games on their own.

 

[Dessert Nights]

You can say only 4 goalies were net negative but you can also say 25% of goalies were net negative...

 

[WATTAGE4451]

Binnington and Niemi surprise me.
Niemi being a fairly clear net-positive on goals saved above expected, while Binnington being a slight negative makes me feel like I experienced alternative realities during those playoffs.

Binnington i didnt think was negative but i long thought many overrated him in those playoffs just cuz blues finally won a cup. But he gave up 4+ goals 6 times in 26 games. And 5+ 4 times.

He was shaky vs vancouver, excellent vs dallas, and about average with some great some shakey games vs winipeg and boston

 

[WATTAGE4451]

Keep in mind Kuemper was top five in the regular season in both sv% and gsaX and suffered an eye injury in the first round of the playoffs that caused him to miss time.

His overall playoff numbers were not good, but let's not act like he was a scrub either.

Kuemper definitely was shaky, but it amazes me that very few people seem to bring up the eye innury as a reason why.

He was fine in the first round before the injury,then missed the rest of the series- and when he came back he struggled- and then after the blues series, he ended up sitting out after 1st game of oulers series cuz eye was bothering him again and he coulsnt see- which likely meant he was never seeing 100% vs the blues. He was a mixed bag in the final series vs the lightning hetting out up some games but was very good in 2 of the wins.

Absolutely reasonable to thi k the eye injury played a part. Just seeing the puck .1 of a second later can be thebdifference between a routine save from a shot far out and looking awkward on a snipe cuz you saw it late.

Binnington and Niemi surprise me.
Niemi being a fairly clear net-positive on goals saved above expected, while Binnington being a slight negative makes me feel like I experienced alternative realities during those playoffs.

Also id like to add, niemis overall playoffs rated as a plus because he was actually good it the earlier rounds, he was only trash in the stanley cup finals which is what everyone remembers. He was definitely a negative in that round but was actually good in the first 3 rounds.

 

[WATTAGE4451]

Binnington sure was good against the Wild that year. Kuemper not a surprise.

Binnington didnt play the wild in the cup run year. It was Winnipeg dallas san jose boston. He did play the wild 2 yeats later when husso started the series them got benched ora couple years before the cup allen had a spectacular series vs the wild but neither of those were the year the Blues won the cup

Yeah I don't get that at all. Niemi was pretty awful in the Finals that year. Had the Flyers had competent goaltending they win that Cup, but their goaltending was even worse with Leighton and an injured Boucher.

Yeah but people forget that niemi was actually really good in the first 3 rounds because of how bad he was in the finals.

 

[norrisnick]

Hence why I will always believe Detroit repeats in '09 if they faced any team other than Pittsburgh again.

I mean health was a bigger factor than anything. Unless you mean a beat up Wings could have beaten any other team?

 

[Raym11]

Tim Thomas flailing around while being unbeatable and having one of the sickest peaks of all time was amazing. My personal favourite goalie performances from the last 20 years.

 

[Grifter3511]

Binnington i didnt think was negative but i long thought many overrated him in those playoffs just cuz blues finally won a cup. But he gave up 4+ goals 6 times in 26 games. And 5+ 4 times.

He was shaky vs vancouver, excellent vs dallas, and about average with some great some shakey games vs winipeg and boston

He didn't play Vancouver during the blues cup run. Winnipeg/dallas/San jose/Boston.

 

[VEGASKING]

Adin Hill was a 4th stringer last year.

This false narrative needs to die. He and Thompson played 50/50 of the games they were healthy. When they were both injured at the end of the year Brossoit came in and went 8-1 or something and Cassidy went with the hot hand to start the playoffs as Hill was returning from injury. At worst he was a "back up" at that point because most teams aren't rotating goalies in the playoffs. At no point was he ever a 3rd stringer let alone 4th.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Not sure I buy the concept of putting this much faith in save percentage or "expected" GA.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

"PeNgUiNs GoT gReAt GoAlTeNdInG iN 2009!"

The stats show they got one of the worst goaltending performances among Cup winners in the past 16 years.

 

[Xerloris]

As for Binnington, he looked like a rebound machine that finals. Rask thoroughly outplayed him 6 of the 7 games, but the one bad game Rask had and the best game Binnington had happened to be the one game that mattered

I don't really understand what criteria you're using to come to the conclusion that Rask thoroughly outplayed Binnington in 6 of the 7 games but here are the series stats.

			Goalie Stats		Ice Time
No.	Player	Pos	Age	GP	DEC	GA	SA	SV	SV%	SO	PIM	TOI	ATOI
40	Tuukka Rask	G	31	7	3-4-0	17	193	176	.912	0	0	417:37	59:40

			Goalie Stats		Ice Time
No.	Player	Pos	Age	GP	DEC	GA	SA	SV	SV%	SO	PIM	TOI	ATOI
50	Jordan Binnington	G	25	7	4-3-0	18	205	187	.912	0	0	392:08	56:01
34	Jake Allen	G	28	1	0-0-0	1	4	3	.750	0	0	24:28	24:28