Speculation: Simple question, Playoffs Yes or No

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Yeah but remember, it's not about what Tarasenko does going forward, it's about replacing what was done last year. We were 20th in GF/GP and IMO we'll need to be better than that so it's about replacing the lost production and also have what is necessary in case of a key injury (+ fingers crossed about Norris)

Agreed it is about going forward, but it's only an 8 point pace difference between the 2 players last season, if we're not including Tarasenko's time in Florida.

Joseph had 0.49 PPG last season and the 3 years prior : 0.34, 0.43 and 0.32. Not as good as last season but can expect 28 to 35 pts per 82 games. A problem for him has been playing all games. He's been quite injury prone in his career

Joseph paces at 4 points more than Amadio per 82 the last 3 seasons, that 4 points is undeniable. Amadio also paces at 18 g to Joseph's 11 over the same period, which has value. I think the value easily cancels itself out here and there's an argument joseph was playing higher up the lineup than he should have been to accomplish the higher pace he had in Ottawa.

My point was more to calculate the past production we have to replace. I think it can be replaced without much problem but my concern is more about a key injury that could put us in trouble

I don't disagree that offence could be a concern, but I don't think that has anything to do with the players in the comparisons and numbers you originally posted. Mostly bodies out for basically equal in, even if technically not enough games were played.

Again, it was really not the point you think I was trying to make. So not going to comment any further or the debate could go on forever.

I get that. Fine to do. I just though you were demonstrating a problem that doesn't actually exist if studied underneath. The potential issues are elsewhere imo.

I think most people would think this but looking at last 2 years combined, only 99 D-men have more ESP than Brannstrom... and there's 192 regular jobs (92 D-men had more looking at just 2023-24)

That's fair, but we're usually talking a couple points, if I had to guess. Guys like Hamonic/Holden were easily capable of 15-20 points too, it's just not a high bar to cross and I don't think it makes up for Brannstrom's "shortcomings" lol.

I should have just listed the overall totals (Pts + GP) without names to avoid confusion. It was never meant to be individual comparisons, sorry if it looked like that. It was meant to be a really short point (the one after I briefly talk about Joseph in this post)

Ya that probably would have not prompted a response from me. I think some of what you were going for made some sense, but when you really dive in to it further, it's a non concern, but fair if that wasn't technically the point you were going for.

I agree with your points that I didn't quote.

I will take that and run lol.

 

[Filatov2Kovalev2Bonk]

Qualified "Yes" as I think one of Tampa Bay or Boston will fall back, leaving us an "In" for a top 3 spot, WC at worst.
It's time. If we miss this year the core needs to be broken up.

 

[Masterplan]

It's official. No effin' way.

 

[Here I Pageau Again]

I say no. Unfortunately I just don't think we will put it all together. We seem to have such garbage first few months the last couple seasons. I probably won't say yes until I see some consistent play at the beginning.

I want to say yes, but my gut is leaning no.

 

[Xspyrit]

Problem is I don't think we could afford a single key injury.

We're one Chabot, Sanderson, Zub injury away from a disaster. We're one Tkachuk, Stutzle, Batherson, Giroux, Pinto/Norris injury from a disaster. Not going to talk about Ullmark

This teams is very skilled, above average, but seems slow and soft. I'm worried that we get outplayed and outscored again at Even Strength. Hopefully, things play out differently when the regular season begins

 

[Back in Black]

This is our year!!!!

Puck you Leafs....

 

[robsenz]

Anyone here do the "probably not" quote yet?

 

[BondraTime]

Going to be a close season, first since 2017 that there is a legitimate chance they get in. I think there is a group of 7 who are teams who "should" be in the playoffs, any of which the Sens would need to have a big year, or the other teams have a down year, to see the Sens above.

Tor/TB/NYR/Car/NJ/Fla/Bos. These are all strong, strong teams, some of which have made some huge additions, some just remain very strong.

Ottawa/Buffalo/Detroit/Islanders/Caps. I think these are the 5 teams that will legitimately have a shot at jumping into the playoffs. I think the Sens can be, at least, argued to be atop this grouping. Not much different than the grouping has been viewed the past year or two, but this is the first season where I think it's actually a realistic outcome for the Sens

CLB/Pitts/Mtl/Phi I think should be the top draft pick grouping.

I'm going to say they get in, 7th spot

 

[NyQuil]

I feel like the planets have to align perfectly for us to make the post-season this year.

Not just with our own overall team health and production, but also with some of our immediate divisional competitors.

 

[Stutzlaaaa]

I feel like the planets have to align perfectly for us to make the post-season this year.

Not just with our own overall team health and production, but also with some of our immediate divisional competitors.

Yup you're right am feeling the same thing. I think we will need a combination of two things to make it :

1.Having for once a strong start in one of our hardest first 20 games the last few years. I think playing good teams early will give an edge to the compete level of our players.

2.I think this is the year we see one of the old elite teams of the Atlantic go down. Am talking about Bruins or Tampa. Both team are still good and have mostly the same good players but I think one of them will have have a bad start for once that will hurt their chances to be top 3 in division ,if not both.
Tampa already had bad start and came back from it, Bruins are always strong early season *if not all season xD*, so it might be them.

Our X factor this year is obviously Ulmark. This team lacked and decent starter for years and now has an elite one. It will be a big change for the boys and for our points total this year. Goaltending is crucial in everyway to make it and to go deep you need good tandem.

 

[DanyHeatley]

Not with this official start of season line up, we don’t

FORWARDS

Brady Tkachuk - Tim Stutzle - Claude Giroux
David Perron - Josh Norris - Drake Batherson
Ridly Greig - Shane Pinto - Michael Amadio
Noah Gregor - Zack Ostapchuk - Nick Cousins

Extra: Zack MacEwen, Matthew Highmore (inj)

DEFENCE

Jake Sanderson - Artem Zub
Thomas Chabot - Nick Jensen
Tyler Kleven - Carter Yakemchuk

Extra: Travis Hamonic-Jacob Bernard-Docker

GOALTENDERS

Linus Ullmark
Anton Forsberg

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

Not with this official start of season line up, we don’t

FORWARDS

Brady Tkachuk - Tim Stutzle - Claude Giroux
David Perron - Josh Norris - Drake Batherson
Ridly Greig - Shane Pinto - Michael Amadio
Noah Gregor - Zack Ostapchuk - Nick Cousins

Extra: Zack MacEwen, Matthew Highmore (inj)

DEFENCE

Jake Sanderson - Artem Zub
Thomas Chabot - Nick Jensen
Tyler Kleven - Carter Yakemchuk

Extra: Travis Hamonic-Jacob Bernard-Docker

GOALTENDERS

Linus Ullmark
Anton Forsberg

that is a deep skilled team though.

maybe we're missing another Stutzle but this roster should absolutely challenge for playoffs. Pinto and Greig on the 3rd line, Chabot on the 2nd pair, a well balanced top 6 and a Vezina goalie.

the only thing is they mentally suck. but roster wise it will be a disappointment if they are not in it till the end.

the last time we had a roster as good as this was 2011, and a bunch of crappier sens roster has made the playoffs in between that time.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

it will be a huge disappointment if they don't make noise and aren't in it till the final week.

and if they don't i really hope we drastically shake up the core. from the top.

 

[Erik Alfredsson]

Not with this official start of season line up, we don’t

FORWARDS

Brady Tkachuk - Tim Stutzle - Claude Giroux
David Perron - Josh Norris - Drake Batherson
Ridly Greig - Shane Pinto - Michael Amadio
Noah Gregor - Zack Ostapchuk - Nick Cousins

Extra: Zack MacEwen, Matthew Highmore (inj)

DEFENCE

Jake Sanderson - Artem Zub
Thomas Chabot - Nick Jensen
Tyler Kleven - Carter Yakemchuk

Extra: Travis Hamonic-Jacob Bernard-Docker

GOALTENDERS

Linus Ullmark
Anton Forsberg

That looks like a pretty good lineup actually.

I think people are being too hard on the team in here. Understandable because the past few seasons haven't been up to expectations. But I would argue they were being held back quite a bit by DJ Smith, terrible goaltending, and Dorion plugging in supporting pieces that were bad fits (DeBrincat, Chychrun, Tarasenko).

The roster is absolutely good enough to make the playoffs. It's just a matter of execution at this point.

 

[StoicSensFan]

Not with this official start of season line up, we don’t

FORWARDS

Brady Tkachuk - Tim Stutzle - Claude Giroux
David Perron - Josh Norris - Drake Batherson
Ridly Greig - Shane Pinto - Michael Amadio
Noah Gregor - Zack Ostapchuk - Nick Cousins

Extra: Zack MacEwen, Matthew Highmore (inj)

DEFENCE

Jake Sanderson - Artem Zub
Thomas Chabot - Nick Jensen
Tyler Kleven - Carter Yakemchuk

Extra: Travis Hamonic-Jacob Bernard-Docker

GOALTENDERS

Linus Ullmark
Anton Forsberg

How can you say that, this is pretty much the best lineup we've iced since the pizza line days.

 

[NyQuil]

How can you say that, this is pretty much the best lineup we've iced since the pizza line days.

How many games will that lineup play is the $8 million dollar question.

 

[TheNewEra]

Our lack of defensive depth and health especially on defense will be the deciding factor

We have no one that i would feel remotely comfortable playing 1 game in our top 4 if one of our top 4 guys were to get injured

 

[Micklebot]

How many games will that lineup play is the $8 million dollar question.

We might get ~5 games of a full healthy roster.

What is nice, is guys like Jenik and Gaudette looked like they might crack the roster, so there's some depth when injuries occur. I also think all of JBD, Hamonic, and Guenette looked capable of giving us bottom pair mins so we have options at RD too.

Oddly, the position of strength last year, LD, is the one I'm most concerned with should injuries strike. Roos was too slow for me to be comfortable with, Davies wasn't particularly good either. Sebrango was ok but there isn't much there.

 

[NyQuil]

We might get ~5 games of a full healthy roster.

What is nice, is guys like Jenik and Gaudette looked like they might crack the roster, so there's some depth when injuries occur. I also think all of JBD, Hamonic, and Guenette looked capable of giving us bottom pair mins so we have options at RD too.

Oddly, the position of strength last year, LD, is the one I'm most concerned with should injuries strike. Roos was too slow for me to be comfortable with, Davies wasn't particularly good either. Sebrango was ok but there isn't much there.

I may have been a bit cheeky with the number but I do think this team's fortunes rest on Norris and Chabot earning their keep both in terms of performance and games played.

I'm fairly confident about the rest of our core players.

 

[bicboi64]

that is a deep skilled team though.

maybe we're missing another Stutzle but this roster should absolutely challenge for playoffs. Pinto and Greig on the 3rd line, Chabot on the 2nd pair, a well balanced top 6 and a Vezina goalie.

If Greig can find another gear offensively and Pinto continues his progression, both of them could provide some much needed secondary offense. Hopefully Stu hits 100 points and Greig and Pinto hit 60+ points each

 

[GCK]

We need to make these playoffs and Stu needs to put 100 pts so the Leafs fans could shut up a little bit. This is what I was told yesterday :

" But you're probably right, this is the Senators year to finally make the playoffs and hopefully play against Toronto in the first round. God knows we need the free pass, which is what your favourite franchise has always been to us. "

This poster needs that to blow up in his face



If Norris is healthy and back to form, I actually have more faith in the current lineup so have to cross the fingers here. Both Norris and Pinto playing would make the biggest difference vs last season

My concern is if Norris can't be back at his top and another top guy (Tkachuk, Batherson, Stu or Giroux) get injured, who could step up for offense? I guess Greig and Perron would be called up upon but hard to ask significant offensive numbers from a 36 y/o and a sophomore. I think we'd have to go to the trading route.

Unfortunately, this forward group seems to depend a lot on Norris' health. We could maybe "manage" without him but we'd be one injury from being in real trouble. His situation and his cap hit makes it hard to manage for the team.

The biggest help for us getting to the playoffs are replacing Korpse with a true NHL goaltender, unloading Chychrun and Kubalik.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I think Ullmark will give them time to find their footing and finally get some forward progress that will lead to them getting in.

 

[Speatleysson]

I think the east is still too strong, but maybe they'll surprise me and get into a wildcard spot. The sens cannot afford any injuries, and we need Ullmark to pull through. Winning more games on the western road trips will be essential; no more ******* party time on road trips.

 

[SensFactor]

TSN Prediction: Sens will finish 5th

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/the-talking-point-atlantic-division-predictions-for-this-season~3006539

 

[GCK]

If Forsberg has the exact same record as last year we will need Ullmark to go 33 - 22 to get 96 points. I feel good about our chances.